UKRAINE'S "NATIONAL GUARD" ? WHAT IS THE REAL REASON?

Last week, I spoke to the issue of how the Ukrainian military might be more divided than many realized and how the ousted President may have insured the Military would not follow new leadership that is simply based upon protest in Kiev.

Again and again I have reminded everyone just how detailed the planning process by the Russians may have been and how anticipating having to split the Ukrainian military to insure it was not combat effective was most likely a priority of effort.

Continue this concept by considering how reluctant the new government would be to even hint to the outside world there was dissension amongst the ranks of the Ukrainian military?

Yet, if the new leadership truly had evidence or a strong perception of this being true, then the question of forming a "new defense force" might just be logical.

Short version of this question!

Is the development of the new Ukrainian National Guard an indication the Ukrainian military may be more divided, thus ineffective, than anticipated?

As much credit as I have given the Russian military planning process, I'm not sold on the idea they anticipated a formal National Guard realignment.

In a Chess game where the new government and the West have been losing almost every move, this National Guard concept may be the first indication of a offensive victory.

Now, I say that, but you can bet the Russian reaction to the National Guard announcement will sound something like this; "we do not recognize a formal alignment of Fascist groups into a military organization".

So, does this National Guard concept indicate trouble in the Ukrainian military forces and their questionable loyalty to the new government in Kiev?

My opinion is yes; it means exactly that.

As to the tactical capabilities of this new concept, I would suggest we wait to see who makes up these new units?

If they are bits and pieces of existing units, then I think we have our answer.

Will this new concept be capable of defending large portions of Ukrainian land?

It depends on what they are trying to defend against.

On the other hand, if the rumors of Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border are true, and I believe they are, then this new National Guard concept will be nothing more than a prime example of a too little and too late.

My bet is, we shall see sooner than we think.

RUSSIAN "TYCOONS" AND HOW TO ASSESS GOOD INTELLIGENCE.         

Once again, let's play the assumption game.

Lets assume the rumors of Pro Russian "Tycoons" moving money up to two months ago are true.

How in the world could the intelligence community, from several countries, miss this?

Is it possible the intelligence community doesn't judge the sudden movement of funds of key supporters of world leaders as a "key indicator"?

People are going to ask, " so, do we watch the movement of money and if so, how"?

Does money typically flow from certain locations to certain location prior to a major event taking place?

Is the intelligence community ready to give the public an explanation if this rumor does turn out to be true?

 We know who the Tsar's main supporters are and we should know where their money is; notice I said 'should"!

Again, I'm going to assume this rumor has some merit to it and I'm also going to assume the Western intelligence community was asleep at the switch.

Once we get passed the idea of this transfer of funds actually taking place, an even more ominous fact comes to the surface.

The events in the Ukraine are on a course that has been predetermined just as I had feared.

Moving money is a way to keep your supporters from losing money and that implies the Russians anticipated sanctions and individual sanctions.

Is that important?

Yes.

If the pending sanctions, something the EU will vote on in less than 24 hrs, then have been preprogrammed into the Russian plan, then the next phase of that plan will take place regardless of any so called sanctions.

Rumors of Russian units preparing to enter the Eastern sections of the Ukraine are growing by the hour and everyone seems to be holding their breath.

Events that are about to unfold are far too important to step backwards and wonder how this money movement issue, if true, could have taken place without the intelligence "experts".. I use that word loosely..... understanding what was taking place.

Here is the bottom line:

As of the 11th of March 2014, the Western world can do little to keep the next Russian move from taking place.

Pain will to come from another direction and do so quickly and even then a "tit for tat" interaction will do absolutely nothing to impact what is about to take place in the Ukraine.

Side note:  I don't think we have even seen the beginning of the new, 21st century way of playing the old Cold War game of " ship bumping"...

Cyber and all that we do not understand about what that means.... that is the next generation of "ship bumping"..  

AWACs and Russian airborne exercises will have everyone watching, but the real shots of a Russian / Western conflict may come with little to no sound and not a single vehicle firing on another vehicle.

Oh, all of you "cyber warriors" please don't tell me DOS / Denial of Service attacks are already the indications of what could take place..

DOS events are child's play compared to what we really fear.

  

AWACS .. THE 21st CENTURY VERSION OF "SHIP BUMPING"!

Today's announcement on the coverage of airborne assets to "monitor" events in the Ukraine may be news to some in the media, but the reality is this has mostly likely been taking place since the beginning of the crisis.

Having the ability to monitor what is flying into or around the Ukraine is one mission, but other assets have the ability to track other movements and it's these "other movements" that might be the most important.

JSTARS and other similar assets can paint a very accurate picture of what is moving on the ground and it's these ground movements  / locations / that are most likely the truly valued information.

As I have said before, in the detailed world of military planning, possible enemy courses of action, in this case Western actions, would have been mapped out by the Russian planners.

Did they anticipate the deployment of airborne ISR / Intelligence / assets?

I would be stunned and very disappointed if the answer was no!

If the Russians did anticipate the intelligence missions, could that account for the large scale anti air exercise they announced a few days ago?

My guess is that was at least a large part of the planning process.

By anticipating and airborne ISR operation a message can be sent that Ukrainian airspace is now closed with a Russian anti air "Exercise".

So, it a not so obvious way, the chest game of military maneuvering is increasing day by day.

By the way, AWACS and other like assets typically have "Defensive Patrols" escorting them.

Will this be the case this time around?

Hard to tell, but you can bet the Russians are "looking" towards the sky just as much as the West is.

In my opinion, the airspace over the Ukraine is all but officially closed and I would not be surprised to see the Russians officially declare such an status in the next few days.

In the early stages of this Chess game, this Air Defense Exercise and the AWACS deployment are identifiable signs of increasing tensions... now taking place at the tactical level, not just on the diplomatic front; and that is a event that should not go unnoticed or underestimated.

Oh... by the way... back when the Cold War was in it's Glory Days... yes that is how some them.....   It was a sign of rising tensions when a Soviet Ship and a Western Ship would "bump" or get close to bumping.    

Let's see if any good old fashion "Air Intercepts" take place anytime soon!

SYRIA AND THE POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE BATTLEFIELD.

Ok, it's easy to see how the events in Syria have fallen off the radar with most folks and even the events in Iraq, events that should be getting far more coverage than they are, are not rising to the occasion of even minimal concern.

Most of this can be attributed to the very short attention span the West notoriously has.

If Dancing with the Stars is on, who cares about a potential conflict in Europe again!

After two weeks of daily live reporting, even the events in the Ukraine seem to have lost interest with the people of the West.

From Assad's standpoint this couldn't have come at a better time, not to mention Hezbollah and their continued missteps in Syria.

If you've not paid attention, and most haven't, the might Hezbollah Warriors have been getting their forth point of contacts handed to them in their battle for the city of Yabrud.

So, are things going just the way Assad would like them?

With all eyes on the Ukraine, does Assad have yet another green light for killing on a massive scale?

Yes he does, but it's not doing him any good.

Last week there were serious rumors of a "second front" opening to the South of Damascus.

Are these rumors true... do they have any merit?

Two answers.

1.  The people in the West don't seem to know or care.

2.  You can bet Assad and this puppet masters in Tehran think it's true!

With the ever less attending eyes of the West gazing towards the Ukraine, the simple fact of the matter is Assad is still losing ground.

Yabrud, a predicted easy takeover for Assad's forces and Hezbollah, has become an entrenched battleground.

If a GCC backed, supported "second front" is about to open, the West may be far more willing to ether turn a blind eye or even support the concept given the anger that is brewing over the Tsar's actions in the Ukraine.

I stated three weeks ago, the Ukraine would turn into a "tit for tat"  event.

If the Tsar is getting his way in the Ukraine, then put the pressure on his vision in the Middle East.

How easy would this be?

Well, it would be far more amenable to the people of the US and Europe than the idea of an open confrontation over Ukraine.

Finally, as I have said before, here is the most dangerous thing about labeling someone as a "pushover"... the way the Tsar seems to look at President Obama.

Often when you push someone too far, that person finally decides to lash out and that is usually an ill planned poorly executed event.

If the President of the US is growing tired of hearing, one, he cannot afford to do anything tangible about the Ukraine.. words from his own party... and two... He is failing as a world leader... the concept his  political rival party is putting out there..... then he may be demanding "options"!

Options come easy in the Middle East and some of those options might even help win back some of the trust he has lost with the GCC.

The Crimean may slide into the Russian camp, but the times may be about to get much harder for the Eye Doctor in Damascus.

Oh ya... did I mention the STL trials are finally underway in Lebanon?

Does anyone remember what the STL?

I know... I know... Dancing with the Stars is on!!

Keep your eyes on the Middle East and lets see if the West / the US is about to show the Tsar there is a price to pay for Crimea that is not going to be paid in Europe.

LAVROV'S COMMENTS ON THE UKRAINE.. PERCEPTION OR PARANOIA?

Two schools of thought continue to spin around the events in the Uraine and to me it all sounds like another version of the age old "what came first the Chicken or the Egg"?

Lavrov's theory, the official Russian stance, of the West provoking the events in Ukraine for the sake of drawing another of the old Soviet Territories into the European, Western, "influence" seems perfectly logical from their point of view.

The "West's" viewpoint that the people of Ukraine should be free to choose where the future of their county takes them is just as valid....well.... with the exception of a few post Arab Spring countries... "Go in the direction we would like you to head and we are good with it... go in the direction we don't support and well.... you know the rest...

So, the argument seems to center around, perceptions.

One side says, "You are out to box us in".

The other side says, "We are for the 'people'"!

Answer time!

Hogwash!... No offense to my Muslim friends:)

If the West is so happy to have Russia as a major economic player in the world, then why give the perception they are being "boxed in"?

Answer... It's not happening!!!!

It's not the true...

Nobody fears a 21st century version of the Russian Empire swallowing Europe.

What the West, particularly Europe fears is the Tsar!

The Western world, a world fatigued beyond measure from the War on Terrorism, fears the one issue it has no stomach for just now.... a new... powerful...aggressive world leader!

Short answer; The world doesn't fear Russia... the world fears Putin!

The first of the 21st century, and there will be others, Ultranationalist with an aggressive nature towards a Western world he no longer respects...... that is what we face as of today.

The crisis becomes overwhelming when the counterbalance to such a leader is a individual who  the Ultranationalist has absolutely no respect for.

In the end, this is not about the Ukraine.... It wasn't and isn't about Syria in Syria and it's not about Iran in Iran.

What we are facing today in 2014, is the reality that a long feared player on the world stage has decided; "now is my time... our time"...

Getting a few people to a table to talk about Kiev politics is not going to solve what is taking place here.

The world is changing and one man is forcing that change..

The dilemma for the "West" is done about it?

THE GCC AND UKRAINE... IS THERE A LINK?

For those of you that know be or have followed me for the past few years, you know my real area of interest is the Middle East.

Having said that, my second favorite thing to do is follow the actions of the 21st Century Tsar.. the most interesting and in my opinion, most important man in the world.

So about a day ago a rift was openly proclaimed in the GCC.

It's obvious the events in the Ukraine stripped this otherwise very interesting story from the front pages of the world press, but it cannot go overlooked.

So, why did it happen?

To listen to the media it a simple issue of Qatar's not agreeing to go along with the GCC on issues have never been issues between it's members in the past. "Don't "meddle in each other's affairs"! 

Right!! Like that has never happened in the Middle East!

So is that it?

Did this turn of events, one that damaged the accreditation of the GCC happen for such an open / shout topic?

I would suggest we look just a little deeper into the topic and see where the tensions really rest.

I've stated time and time again how the old, loyal members of the US, Middle Eastern friendship pact have been more than uncomfortable with the actions of the US over the past three years.

To put it simply, Saudi / the center of gravity for the GCC, has lost a great deal of "hope" when it comes to the future of US / Saudi interactions.

It's no mystery the Saudis have been searching for a new long term, strategic partner/ s / such as China / Russia / India.

The US support for the Arab Spring meant what to the GCC?

If you don't remember, then I will tell you...it nearly destroyed all hope of Western Support.

So; what did the GCC witness last week?

What took place in the Ukraine that may have their worries / fears rising to the surface once again?

Did the US once again stand up for a group who showed up in nations capital and within days bring it's government to ruins?

Yes!

Do the Saudis and the GCC truly understand the other dynamics of the Ukrainian issue?

Perhaps, but I doubt it's at any level that would not spur on their basic fear of Western abandonment for Middle Easter Monarchies.

To many in the GCC, the West seems to be consistently on the side of the disruptive minority!

Understand one of the tenets of paranoia; rational thinking is one of the first things to go.

The leaders of the GCC are paranoid and watching yet another sitting government fall and do so very much in the same fashion of the Arab Spring; well... who knows where that perception may take them?

Has Qatar been trying to "punch above it's weight" for the past two years?

Yes.

Has that bothered the GCC leaders?

Perhaps to some degree, but understand the level of pride that has suffered a huge hit by taking such bold actions against its own members.

The actions of Saudi, UAE and Bahrain were not taken without a great deal of consultation and I would be willing to bet very few Western leaders or their staffs had any inputs to the decision and if that is true, that is even more of a story than the actions themselves.

Openly admitting dissension in the public... the Persian Public... that had to weigh heavy on the minds of the GCC leaders, but they did it!

I know the world is watching what it believes is the dawn of a new cold war, but I tell you this... don't overlook what just took place in the GCC.

The Persians didn't!

A crack is an opportunity and the Persians love opportunities. 

UKRAINE ... RUSSIA CONFLICT AND SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE! 

A few days ago, I mentioned the topic of sabotage and how the Russian may have executed a plan to limit the ability of the Ukrainian military to respond.

If we assume one phase of the Russian actions was to pull key  members of the Ukrainian military away from the new government, then should assume that was not the only phase in the concept of limiting their enemy.

The facts dictate the Ukrainian military was flatfooted as this crisis got underway, but how is it the Russian forces were able to surround key critical infrastructure?

Could it be the Ukrainian military is separated from it's ammunition?  

Could it be some level of cyber activitiy has limited the Ukranian military from being able to respond?

How could there not be cyber activity taking place after what the world witnessed the Russians execute against Georgia?

All of this conjecture leads to one dominant question?

What are the current capabilities of the Ukrainian military?

Does the new government know?

Do they have military leaders who can tell them and do they trust them?

Yes, it would be futile to launch a kinetic action against the Russian forces, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Three days ago, the Ukrainian government, at least the one the West recognizes, declared a full mobilization?

Let me tell you that takes time, even for a country that has a detailed plan for doing so.

It might be a wise political move, one I don't think the Russians were very impressed with, but what does it really mean?

How soon before such a force could be made into a  Combined Combat capable operation?

Hint, it would take the US months at best!!!

Now, I've already covered my opinion of how events in the Crimea might take place and the Tatars are the key to that operation given their location behind the newly established lines.... oh by the way.. that is an issue the Russian will not have overlooked as well.

Lets look at this issue of a potential kinetic fight between the Russians and the new government of Ukraine from another angle.

Why go on the Offensive, knowing the rule of war states a 4 to 1 advantage for the defender?

Why not wait for the Tatars supported by "others" to start an asymmetric campaign in the Crimea and simply watch how the Tsar and his troops respond.

If Russian forces move into Eastern or Ukraine, then those Russian forces, who are not there according to the Russian government, have two fronts to concentrate on!

Look, the bottom line is this.

It would be a tragic mistake for the Ukrainian forces to go on the offensive!

They are far better off letting the Russians make the first move and fighting from a position of defense.

Now, I know this and you can bet the Russians understand this, so the next question becomes, what have the Russians planned to counter such a strategy?

If the Tsar truly plans on making a move into the mainland of the Ukraine, then he will need a dramatic "event" to justify his actions.

What would that event be?

You can bet they have designed several options.

So, three days ago I said the best option for the Tatars in the Crimea is to fight a classic insurgency operation.

Yes, the Russians have "planned" for this, but planning and executing are very different actions.

If the Ukrainian military is wise, they will let the Tatars carry the fight as they buy time to repair a military their old Russian sympathetic President sabotaged.

Oh ya.. you guessed it.. The Russian saw this as a possible Enemy Course of Action / COA/ as well.

So, if we all see what is coming, lets see if the politicians can keep it from happening.

The Tatars of the Crimean are the key and I wonder who in the intelligence community understands this?

Oh ya... Footnote:

Please!!! The statement the forces in the Crimean are not Russian!!!

When will some political leaders learn that  to sound stupid on international TV is expected, but should be avoided.

If they are not Russian units, then lets see the intelligence community identify what type of communication signals are coming from the " home guard" members.

Do the signals match the electronic footprint of known Russian unit equipment?

Lets see the West / NATO/ show prof of what units showed up in the Crimea and how they got there.

Do you think  units showing up on an airfield is not traceable?

Do you think a motor pool that was full four days ago at the Russian Navel base that now shows to be empty is not noticeable?

Good grief.

It doesn't take a satellite and an intelligence analyst to prove this.

Someone on their cell phone is all that is needed.

If you don't believe this, then you have not been paying attention to Syria for the past three years!!!

Yes.. Social Media is the 21st century version of civilian Intelligence networking and it works far better than some that the world  pays BILLIONS for!!!