SYRIA AND THE POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE BATTLEFIELD.

Ok, it's easy to see how the events in Syria have fallen off the radar with most folks and even the events in Iraq, events that should be getting far more coverage than they are, are not rising to the occasion of even minimal concern.

Most of this can be attributed to the very short attention span the West notoriously has.

If Dancing with the Stars is on, who cares about a potential conflict in Europe again!

After two weeks of daily live reporting, even the events in the Ukraine seem to have lost interest with the people of the West.

From Assad's standpoint this couldn't have come at a better time, not to mention Hezbollah and their continued missteps in Syria.

If you've not paid attention, and most haven't, the might Hezbollah Warriors have been getting their forth point of contacts handed to them in their battle for the city of Yabrud.

So, are things going just the way Assad would like them?

With all eyes on the Ukraine, does Assad have yet another green light for killing on a massive scale?

Yes he does, but it's not doing him any good.

Last week there were serious rumors of a "second front" opening to the South of Damascus.

Are these rumors true... do they have any merit?

Two answers.

1.  The people in the West don't seem to know or care.

2.  You can bet Assad and this puppet masters in Tehran think it's true!

With the ever less attending eyes of the West gazing towards the Ukraine, the simple fact of the matter is Assad is still losing ground.

Yabrud, a predicted easy takeover for Assad's forces and Hezbollah, has become an entrenched battleground.

If a GCC backed, supported "second front" is about to open, the West may be far more willing to ether turn a blind eye or even support the concept given the anger that is brewing over the Tsar's actions in the Ukraine.

I stated three weeks ago, the Ukraine would turn into a "tit for tat"  event.

If the Tsar is getting his way in the Ukraine, then put the pressure on his vision in the Middle East.

How easy would this be?

Well, it would be far more amenable to the people of the US and Europe than the idea of an open confrontation over Ukraine.

Finally, as I have said before, here is the most dangerous thing about labeling someone as a "pushover"... the way the Tsar seems to look at President Obama.

Often when you push someone too far, that person finally decides to lash out and that is usually an ill planned poorly executed event.

If the President of the US is growing tired of hearing, one, he cannot afford to do anything tangible about the Ukraine.. words from his own party... and two... He is failing as a world leader... the concept his  political rival party is putting out there..... then he may be demanding "options"!

Options come easy in the Middle East and some of those options might even help win back some of the trust he has lost with the GCC.

The Crimean may slide into the Russian camp, but the times may be about to get much harder for the Eye Doctor in Damascus.

Oh ya... did I mention the STL trials are finally underway in Lebanon?

Does anyone remember what the STL?

I know... I know... Dancing with the Stars is on!!

Keep your eyes on the Middle East and lets see if the West / the US is about to show the Tsar there is a price to pay for Crimea that is not going to be paid in Europe.

LAVROV'S COMMENTS ON THE UKRAINE.. PERCEPTION OR PARANOIA?

Two schools of thought continue to spin around the events in the Uraine and to me it all sounds like another version of the age old "what came first the Chicken or the Egg"?

Lavrov's theory, the official Russian stance, of the West provoking the events in Ukraine for the sake of drawing another of the old Soviet Territories into the European, Western, "influence" seems perfectly logical from their point of view.

The "West's" viewpoint that the people of Ukraine should be free to choose where the future of their county takes them is just as valid....well.... with the exception of a few post Arab Spring countries... "Go in the direction we would like you to head and we are good with it... go in the direction we don't support and well.... you know the rest...

So, the argument seems to center around, perceptions.

One side says, "You are out to box us in".

The other side says, "We are for the 'people'"!

Answer time!

Hogwash!... No offense to my Muslim friends:)

If the West is so happy to have Russia as a major economic player in the world, then why give the perception they are being "boxed in"?

Answer... It's not happening!!!!

It's not the true...

Nobody fears a 21st century version of the Russian Empire swallowing Europe.

What the West, particularly Europe fears is the Tsar!

The Western world, a world fatigued beyond measure from the War on Terrorism, fears the one issue it has no stomach for just now.... a new... powerful...aggressive world leader!

Short answer; The world doesn't fear Russia... the world fears Putin!

The first of the 21st century, and there will be others, Ultranationalist with an aggressive nature towards a Western world he no longer respects...... that is what we face as of today.

The crisis becomes overwhelming when the counterbalance to such a leader is a individual who  the Ultranationalist has absolutely no respect for.

In the end, this is not about the Ukraine.... It wasn't and isn't about Syria in Syria and it's not about Iran in Iran.

What we are facing today in 2014, is the reality that a long feared player on the world stage has decided; "now is my time... our time"...

Getting a few people to a table to talk about Kiev politics is not going to solve what is taking place here.

The world is changing and one man is forcing that change..

The dilemma for the "West" is done about it?

THE GCC AND UKRAINE... IS THERE A LINK?

For those of you that know be or have followed me for the past few years, you know my real area of interest is the Middle East.

Having said that, my second favorite thing to do is follow the actions of the 21st Century Tsar.. the most interesting and in my opinion, most important man in the world.

So about a day ago a rift was openly proclaimed in the GCC.

It's obvious the events in the Ukraine stripped this otherwise very interesting story from the front pages of the world press, but it cannot go overlooked.

So, why did it happen?

To listen to the media it a simple issue of Qatar's not agreeing to go along with the GCC on issues have never been issues between it's members in the past. "Don't "meddle in each other's affairs"! 

Right!! Like that has never happened in the Middle East!

So is that it?

Did this turn of events, one that damaged the accreditation of the GCC happen for such an open / shout topic?

I would suggest we look just a little deeper into the topic and see where the tensions really rest.

I've stated time and time again how the old, loyal members of the US, Middle Eastern friendship pact have been more than uncomfortable with the actions of the US over the past three years.

To put it simply, Saudi / the center of gravity for the GCC, has lost a great deal of "hope" when it comes to the future of US / Saudi interactions.

It's no mystery the Saudis have been searching for a new long term, strategic partner/ s / such as China / Russia / India.

The US support for the Arab Spring meant what to the GCC?

If you don't remember, then I will tell you...it nearly destroyed all hope of Western Support.

So; what did the GCC witness last week?

What took place in the Ukraine that may have their worries / fears rising to the surface once again?

Did the US once again stand up for a group who showed up in nations capital and within days bring it's government to ruins?

Yes!

Do the Saudis and the GCC truly understand the other dynamics of the Ukrainian issue?

Perhaps, but I doubt it's at any level that would not spur on their basic fear of Western abandonment for Middle Easter Monarchies.

To many in the GCC, the West seems to be consistently on the side of the disruptive minority!

Understand one of the tenets of paranoia; rational thinking is one of the first things to go.

The leaders of the GCC are paranoid and watching yet another sitting government fall and do so very much in the same fashion of the Arab Spring; well... who knows where that perception may take them?

Has Qatar been trying to "punch above it's weight" for the past two years?

Yes.

Has that bothered the GCC leaders?

Perhaps to some degree, but understand the level of pride that has suffered a huge hit by taking such bold actions against its own members.

The actions of Saudi, UAE and Bahrain were not taken without a great deal of consultation and I would be willing to bet very few Western leaders or their staffs had any inputs to the decision and if that is true, that is even more of a story than the actions themselves.

Openly admitting dissension in the public... the Persian Public... that had to weigh heavy on the minds of the GCC leaders, but they did it!

I know the world is watching what it believes is the dawn of a new cold war, but I tell you this... don't overlook what just took place in the GCC.

The Persians didn't!

A crack is an opportunity and the Persians love opportunities. 

UKRAINE ... RUSSIA CONFLICT AND SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE! 

A few days ago, I mentioned the topic of sabotage and how the Russian may have executed a plan to limit the ability of the Ukrainian military to respond.

If we assume one phase of the Russian actions was to pull key  members of the Ukrainian military away from the new government, then should assume that was not the only phase in the concept of limiting their enemy.

The facts dictate the Ukrainian military was flatfooted as this crisis got underway, but how is it the Russian forces were able to surround key critical infrastructure?

Could it be the Ukrainian military is separated from it's ammunition?  

Could it be some level of cyber activitiy has limited the Ukranian military from being able to respond?

How could there not be cyber activity taking place after what the world witnessed the Russians execute against Georgia?

All of this conjecture leads to one dominant question?

What are the current capabilities of the Ukrainian military?

Does the new government know?

Do they have military leaders who can tell them and do they trust them?

Yes, it would be futile to launch a kinetic action against the Russian forces, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Three days ago, the Ukrainian government, at least the one the West recognizes, declared a full mobilization?

Let me tell you that takes time, even for a country that has a detailed plan for doing so.

It might be a wise political move, one I don't think the Russians were very impressed with, but what does it really mean?

How soon before such a force could be made into a  Combined Combat capable operation?

Hint, it would take the US months at best!!!

Now, I've already covered my opinion of how events in the Crimea might take place and the Tatars are the key to that operation given their location behind the newly established lines.... oh by the way.. that is an issue the Russian will not have overlooked as well.

Lets look at this issue of a potential kinetic fight between the Russians and the new government of Ukraine from another angle.

Why go on the Offensive, knowing the rule of war states a 4 to 1 advantage for the defender?

Why not wait for the Tatars supported by "others" to start an asymmetric campaign in the Crimea and simply watch how the Tsar and his troops respond.

If Russian forces move into Eastern or Ukraine, then those Russian forces, who are not there according to the Russian government, have two fronts to concentrate on!

Look, the bottom line is this.

It would be a tragic mistake for the Ukrainian forces to go on the offensive!

They are far better off letting the Russians make the first move and fighting from a position of defense.

Now, I know this and you can bet the Russians understand this, so the next question becomes, what have the Russians planned to counter such a strategy?

If the Tsar truly plans on making a move into the mainland of the Ukraine, then he will need a dramatic "event" to justify his actions.

What would that event be?

You can bet they have designed several options.

So, three days ago I said the best option for the Tatars in the Crimea is to fight a classic insurgency operation.

Yes, the Russians have "planned" for this, but planning and executing are very different actions.

If the Ukrainian military is wise, they will let the Tatars carry the fight as they buy time to repair a military their old Russian sympathetic President sabotaged.

Oh ya.. you guessed it.. The Russian saw this as a possible Enemy Course of Action / COA/ as well.

So, if we all see what is coming, lets see if the politicians can keep it from happening.

The Tatars of the Crimean are the key and I wonder who in the intelligence community understands this?

Oh ya... Footnote:

Please!!! The statement the forces in the Crimean are not Russian!!!

When will some political leaders learn that  to sound stupid on international TV is expected, but should be avoided.

If they are not Russian units, then lets see the intelligence community identify what type of communication signals are coming from the " home guard" members.

Do the signals match the electronic footprint of known Russian unit equipment?

Lets see the West / NATO/ show prof of what units showed up in the Crimea and how they got there.

Do you think  units showing up on an airfield is not traceable?

Do you think a motor pool that was full four days ago at the Russian Navel base that now shows to be empty is not noticeable?

Good grief.

It doesn't take a satellite and an intelligence analyst to prove this.

Someone on their cell phone is all that is needed.

If you don't believe this, then you have not been paying attention to Syria for the past three years!!!

Yes.. Social Media is the 21st century version of civilian Intelligence networking and it works far better than some that the world  pays BILLIONS for!!!

 UKRAINE... WHAT IF THE FIGHTING DOES ACTUALLY START?

Ok, it's time to take a break from, "how do we stop it... why did it happen... what can we do about it:.. and so on and so on....

Let's go back to my favorite game.. the game of "what if" and let's play what if based upon the assumption the Tsar intends on occupying the whole of Ukraine; and please lets not go down the road of, "that's not going to happen"... I don't want to waste time on that line of thought.

So, here we go; What if?

What if the Tatars of the Crimean decide to reach out to "outside help", namely fellow Muslims who are skilled in the art of asymmetric warfare?

How long might it be before we witness events such as car bombs and IED's ?

Well, that depends on how long the Tatars have been anticipating the invasion by the Russians.

If certain groups in the Crimean have been preparing for this moment in time, then the opportunity to counter strike is much sooner that most would think.

Have the Tatars had individuals fighting in Syria?

Who has learned what skills in the Sunni / Shia battles of the past three years?

Ok, next "what if"!

What if this does take place in the Crimea?

What will the reaction be.. by the  pro Russian government... by the Tsar?

We have witnessed the heavy handed tactics of the Tsar when dealing with the Northern Caucus fighters and who can forget...most have.. what the Russians did to the city of Grozny.

What if, the Russian armored vehicles and Navel ships are not the targets of the pending "resistance" in the Crimea?

What if the Tatar's decide the Crimea is the new Chechnya.. oh by the way...it will be!

What if the successful annexation / secession of the Crimea turns into the Ukrainian version of Aleppo?

Who do you think the Tsar is going to blame for such an event, regardless of the truth?

On to the next, "what if"!

What if the Tsar decides the eastern part of Ukraine must come under Russian control?

Will the West fight for it?

No!

Will Europe give up it's fuel from Russia over Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will sanctions last or even work?

No!

Will the Tsar stop with just securing Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, fight?

Yes!

Can they win?

What is the definition of "wining"?

Please define wining in a confrontation between Russia and the non Russian slice of the Ukraine.

Will the Ukrainian military fight an unconventional war?

Yes!

Is the Russian military ready for an unconventional war?

No!

Russia, like the US and other Cold War nations are still dominated by military leaders who may talk the talk of unconventional warfare.... COIN....ect...ect... but they still walk the walk of good old kinetic fighting... Armored vehicles, jets... ships...

There is no comparison between the modernization of the US military and the Russian military and yet the US military could not master unconventional warfare after twelve years of nonstop practice.

The Russian military has no chance of conducting effective operations on Ukrainian land and the Ukrainian military and civilians who will become fighters know it.

In December of 1979, the Soviet military invaded Afghanistan and ten years afterwards they left with their tank turrets turned to the rear!

Putin remembers this nightmare just as well as anyone else and you can bet it has not left his train of thought with the Ukraine.

Have the Russians derived a plan for dealing with the Ukraine?

Most likely yes.

Is the Ukraine the only issue here on the Tsar's Master Plan table?

No.

Does getting completely bogged down in a very ugly conflict in the Ukraine serve his dream of the future Russia?

Now that is the most dangerous question of all!

You see, the Tsar seems to live in an alternative universe and it that universe he could very easily see himself as the new leader of a redesigned Europe.. if not the world..

Look... the sane individuals in history have not been responsible for changing the course of the world.

Unfortunately, it's been the irrational / insane figures that have taken the world in a new direction.

The new Tsar fits this mold to the letter and that is the most dangerous thing about the events in the Ukraine.

THE TSAR'S "ENDGAME" IS IT JUST ABOUT THE UKRAINE?

If you've flowed my postings for the past few years, you are probably well aware of my opinion of Mr Putin and his "Vision" of where Russia should be by 2018.

Well, it's only 2014 and so does that mean we are four years early on his dream of a reemerged Russian / Soviet Empire?

My guess is no.. he is not four years ahead of plan.

My bet is he factored in a few years of "hard times" prior to things settling back down and the new "order" being accepted.

Get Europe hooked on Russian fuel?

Check!

Get an American President who is weak and unfocussed on foreign policy.. Putin's perception that is.

Check!

Monopolize the big money of Russia.

Check!

Rebuild a smaller more agile Russian military.. .one that has resolve.. something the West no longer possess or even desires.

Check!

Let me put his another way!

Has anyone stopped to comprehend this is not about the Ukraine at all?

Was the events in the Ukraine predicted so precisely by the Tsar that as soon as the social media driven Arab Spring environment hit on his doorstep, he was prepared to begin the process of rebalancing the modern world into his vision?

Sound  silly???? Then you don't really know the mind of Mr Putin!

What was it he said was the single most tragic event of the 21st Century????

Fill in the blanks there if you can.

So, is it "now or never" for Operation Russia Rising?

Has the Tsar understood all along this vision of his had to happen before the Dragon became the real issue in the world?

When the dust settles, does the Pacific belong to the Dragon and the trading partnership with a dominant Russian Confederation.. that's what it will be called by the way after they swallow up the part of Eastern Europe the Tsar wants back.

Did Putin see the faltering European Union as a weak and vulnerable target.. one that he has desired to carve back up for 20 years now?

Look; the simple question becomes..... did the stars come into alignment just enough that a well planned out Tsar was willing to move to the next level?

If so, and I think this is more than a possibility, then all the threats in the world about the G8 or sanctions will be short-lived.

If the Western world is so fatigued from a poorly executed twelve year war on Terrorism and the Tsar perceives the West has shot themselves in the foot commitments wise, then where does this all end?

What is being said tonight in the chambers of government inside Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria and oh yes... Poland?

They are all now frontline countries and the Bear is not done looking for land.

If the Tsar is ready to spend the next four years with an angry Europe, what is the rest of the world willing to do about it?

More importantly, who understands what can be done about it or how to counter it?

Let me close tonight be making a even more unnerving statement.

What if... What if the Tsar sees the US as so social fractured..... so politically polarized that he has no confidence in the US resolve to do anything about Eastern Europe.

Worse, what if Eastern Europe feels this way?

If you think it can't happen I would ask you to talk to the Saudi's or the Israelis!

I said last night I would start to look at the tactical side of the Ukrainian event, but I just felt it was too important to look at "big picture" events first.

Tuesday, I will dive into the possible fighting side of this event and how Mr Putin has probably completely underestimated what will happen to his forces and his image if fighting gets underway.

One last request.. If you are reading this in Europe, please pass it on.. I have a friend who just thinks he is smarter than me on the topic.. and I would love to out do his website....AGAIN!!! 

UKRAINIAN MILITARY SABOTAGED ????

Ok, I lot has changed in the past twenty-four hours and I would be willing to bet most of it is just according to Russia's plans.

Statements by the West, and they are eerily silent from Europe, were anticipated in the preparation for this operation and no one should be surprised by the lack of reaction by the Russians. 

I've noticed another interesting trend in the past day or so.

Amidst the flurry of over excited reporters, it seems the business community of Europe and Russia are working issues at their own level and that seems to be a topic that is being overlooked by the media.. for now. 

Remember many of the "Business" partners are not necessarily friends of the Tsar and undermining his "vision" of a new Russia could easily be on the business agenda.

What is becoming more and more obvious is the trend to get fixated on smaller events that are highly visible such as military trucks and troops without insignias on their uniforms.

I say this because the "Big Picture" side of this crisis, and trust me when I say this is a full blown crisis, can easily get lost in the social media feeds and the massive amounts of mostly useless information that is being shared by social media.

When I commented on the Russian's planning processes and how events in the Ukraine are not simply happening based on spur of the moment events, I knew I would soon see evidence of what I suggested; the turning  of key players in the Ukrainian military.

Enter the story of Admiral Yuri llyn! 

Has he gone to the side of the Russians?

Probably not.

Has he simply sat on his hands and done nothing to defend the Ukraine state?

Depends on who he is taking orders from or if he is even taking orders.

My point is this, yesterday I commented on the significance of key military leaders / planners / from the Ukraine changing sides or having situational awareness of basic Russian plans dealing with the Ukraine.

What part of this concept was taken into consideration by the Russians from the very beginning of the planning process?

What percentage of key players in the Ukrainian military are ether not willing to fight the Russians or simply on the Russian payroll.

If you don't think key members can be on Putin's dollar, then you don't understand Eastern European military history!

So, has a key issue  come to light; are their members of the Ukrainian military that are undermining the event?

Again, let me speculate with; why would the Russians not have this concept as part of their master plan for dealing with an Ukrainian separatist movement?

Why have I brought this up?

Two reasons.

1. It's standard doctrine to question 'loyalty" of key leaders during a potential Civil War and  that is what the world is facing as of today... yet another Civil War, but this one not in the Middle East, but in Europe's backyard.. .

2.  I can't help but to wonder why the Ukrainian military seems to have  been caught so flat footed with the Russian operation.

Are the solders of the Crimean region from the Crimean?

Are the Ukrainian troops in the Crimean pro Russian?

If so, this was absolutely a catastrophic mistake, but what that was  most likely dictated by a pro Russian  Ukrainian leader.

What better way to be prepared for unrest in the Ukraine than to have the President insure the military is set up for failure during an invasion?

In my opinion this is exactly what Yanukovch accomplished.

If we assume I'm correct, then the capabilities of the Ukrainian military must encompass more than just the Western media stating " they have no chance against the Russian Military"!

That is where I will head next; a break down of what the Ukrainian military is truly up against and how sabotaged are they?  

Hint, I think this plan by the Russians was so well thought out and pre-developed that it has lead to the lack of fighting so far; that and I Ukranian government that is reluctant to fight... just yet..

I don't think that reluctance is going to last very much longer and again, I am sure that also was part of the Russian planning.