UKRAINE... WHAT IF THE FIGHTING DOES ACTUALLY START?

Ok, it's time to take a break from, "how do we stop it... why did it happen... what can we do about it:.. and so on and so on....

Let's go back to my favorite game.. the game of "what if" and let's play what if based upon the assumption the Tsar intends on occupying the whole of Ukraine; and please lets not go down the road of, "that's not going to happen"... I don't want to waste time on that line of thought.

So, here we go; What if?

What if the Tatars of the Crimean decide to reach out to "outside help", namely fellow Muslims who are skilled in the art of asymmetric warfare?

How long might it be before we witness events such as car bombs and IED's ?

Well, that depends on how long the Tatars have been anticipating the invasion by the Russians.

If certain groups in the Crimean have been preparing for this moment in time, then the opportunity to counter strike is much sooner that most would think.

Have the Tatars had individuals fighting in Syria?

Who has learned what skills in the Sunni / Shia battles of the past three years?

Ok, next "what if"!

What if this does take place in the Crimea?

What will the reaction be.. by the  pro Russian government... by the Tsar?

We have witnessed the heavy handed tactics of the Tsar when dealing with the Northern Caucus fighters and who can forget...most have.. what the Russians did to the city of Grozny.

What if, the Russian armored vehicles and Navel ships are not the targets of the pending "resistance" in the Crimea?

What if the Tatar's decide the Crimea is the new Chechnya.. oh by the way...it will be!

What if the successful annexation / secession of the Crimea turns into the Ukrainian version of Aleppo?

Who do you think the Tsar is going to blame for such an event, regardless of the truth?

On to the next, "what if"!

What if the Tsar decides the eastern part of Ukraine must come under Russian control?

Will the West fight for it?

No!

Will Europe give up it's fuel from Russia over Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will sanctions last or even work?

No!

Will the Tsar stop with just securing Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, fight?

Yes!

Can they win?

What is the definition of "wining"?

Please define wining in a confrontation between Russia and the non Russian slice of the Ukraine.

Will the Ukrainian military fight an unconventional war?

Yes!

Is the Russian military ready for an unconventional war?

No!

Russia, like the US and other Cold War nations are still dominated by military leaders who may talk the talk of unconventional warfare.... COIN....ect...ect... but they still walk the walk of good old kinetic fighting... Armored vehicles, jets... ships...

There is no comparison between the modernization of the US military and the Russian military and yet the US military could not master unconventional warfare after twelve years of nonstop practice.

The Russian military has no chance of conducting effective operations on Ukrainian land and the Ukrainian military and civilians who will become fighters know it.

In December of 1979, the Soviet military invaded Afghanistan and ten years afterwards they left with their tank turrets turned to the rear!

Putin remembers this nightmare just as well as anyone else and you can bet it has not left his train of thought with the Ukraine.

Have the Russians derived a plan for dealing with the Ukraine?

Most likely yes.

Is the Ukraine the only issue here on the Tsar's Master Plan table?

No.

Does getting completely bogged down in a very ugly conflict in the Ukraine serve his dream of the future Russia?

Now that is the most dangerous question of all!

You see, the Tsar seems to live in an alternative universe and it that universe he could very easily see himself as the new leader of a redesigned Europe.. if not the world..

Look... the sane individuals in history have not been responsible for changing the course of the world.

Unfortunately, it's been the irrational / insane figures that have taken the world in a new direction.

The new Tsar fits this mold to the letter and that is the most dangerous thing about the events in the Ukraine.

THE TSAR'S "ENDGAME" IS IT JUST ABOUT THE UKRAINE?

If you've flowed my postings for the past few years, you are probably well aware of my opinion of Mr Putin and his "Vision" of where Russia should be by 2018.

Well, it's only 2014 and so does that mean we are four years early on his dream of a reemerged Russian / Soviet Empire?

My guess is no.. he is not four years ahead of plan.

My bet is he factored in a few years of "hard times" prior to things settling back down and the new "order" being accepted.

Get Europe hooked on Russian fuel?

Check!

Get an American President who is weak and unfocussed on foreign policy.. Putin's perception that is.

Check!

Monopolize the big money of Russia.

Check!

Rebuild a smaller more agile Russian military.. .one that has resolve.. something the West no longer possess or even desires.

Check!

Let me put his another way!

Has anyone stopped to comprehend this is not about the Ukraine at all?

Was the events in the Ukraine predicted so precisely by the Tsar that as soon as the social media driven Arab Spring environment hit on his doorstep, he was prepared to begin the process of rebalancing the modern world into his vision?

Sound  silly???? Then you don't really know the mind of Mr Putin!

What was it he said was the single most tragic event of the 21st Century????

Fill in the blanks there if you can.

So, is it "now or never" for Operation Russia Rising?

Has the Tsar understood all along this vision of his had to happen before the Dragon became the real issue in the world?

When the dust settles, does the Pacific belong to the Dragon and the trading partnership with a dominant Russian Confederation.. that's what it will be called by the way after they swallow up the part of Eastern Europe the Tsar wants back.

Did Putin see the faltering European Union as a weak and vulnerable target.. one that he has desired to carve back up for 20 years now?

Look; the simple question becomes..... did the stars come into alignment just enough that a well planned out Tsar was willing to move to the next level?

If so, and I think this is more than a possibility, then all the threats in the world about the G8 or sanctions will be short-lived.

If the Western world is so fatigued from a poorly executed twelve year war on Terrorism and the Tsar perceives the West has shot themselves in the foot commitments wise, then where does this all end?

What is being said tonight in the chambers of government inside Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria and oh yes... Poland?

They are all now frontline countries and the Bear is not done looking for land.

If the Tsar is ready to spend the next four years with an angry Europe, what is the rest of the world willing to do about it?

More importantly, who understands what can be done about it or how to counter it?

Let me close tonight be making a even more unnerving statement.

What if... What if the Tsar sees the US as so social fractured..... so politically polarized that he has no confidence in the US resolve to do anything about Eastern Europe.

Worse, what if Eastern Europe feels this way?

If you think it can't happen I would ask you to talk to the Saudi's or the Israelis!

I said last night I would start to look at the tactical side of the Ukrainian event, but I just felt it was too important to look at "big picture" events first.

Tuesday, I will dive into the possible fighting side of this event and how Mr Putin has probably completely underestimated what will happen to his forces and his image if fighting gets underway.

One last request.. If you are reading this in Europe, please pass it on.. I have a friend who just thinks he is smarter than me on the topic.. and I would love to out do his website....AGAIN!!! 

UKRAINIAN MILITARY SABOTAGED ????

Ok, I lot has changed in the past twenty-four hours and I would be willing to bet most of it is just according to Russia's plans.

Statements by the West, and they are eerily silent from Europe, were anticipated in the preparation for this operation and no one should be surprised by the lack of reaction by the Russians. 

I've noticed another interesting trend in the past day or so.

Amidst the flurry of over excited reporters, it seems the business community of Europe and Russia are working issues at their own level and that seems to be a topic that is being overlooked by the media.. for now. 

Remember many of the "Business" partners are not necessarily friends of the Tsar and undermining his "vision" of a new Russia could easily be on the business agenda.

What is becoming more and more obvious is the trend to get fixated on smaller events that are highly visible such as military trucks and troops without insignias on their uniforms.

I say this because the "Big Picture" side of this crisis, and trust me when I say this is a full blown crisis, can easily get lost in the social media feeds and the massive amounts of mostly useless information that is being shared by social media.

When I commented on the Russian's planning processes and how events in the Ukraine are not simply happening based on spur of the moment events, I knew I would soon see evidence of what I suggested; the turning  of key players in the Ukrainian military.

Enter the story of Admiral Yuri llyn! 

Has he gone to the side of the Russians?

Probably not.

Has he simply sat on his hands and done nothing to defend the Ukraine state?

Depends on who he is taking orders from or if he is even taking orders.

My point is this, yesterday I commented on the significance of key military leaders / planners / from the Ukraine changing sides or having situational awareness of basic Russian plans dealing with the Ukraine.

What part of this concept was taken into consideration by the Russians from the very beginning of the planning process?

What percentage of key players in the Ukrainian military are ether not willing to fight the Russians or simply on the Russian payroll.

If you don't think key members can be on Putin's dollar, then you don't understand Eastern European military history!

So, has a key issue  come to light; are their members of the Ukrainian military that are undermining the event?

Again, let me speculate with; why would the Russians not have this concept as part of their master plan for dealing with an Ukrainian separatist movement?

Why have I brought this up?

Two reasons.

1. It's standard doctrine to question 'loyalty" of key leaders during a potential Civil War and  that is what the world is facing as of today... yet another Civil War, but this one not in the Middle East, but in Europe's backyard.. .

2.  I can't help but to wonder why the Ukrainian military seems to have  been caught so flat footed with the Russian operation.

Are the solders of the Crimean region from the Crimean?

Are the Ukrainian troops in the Crimean pro Russian?

If so, this was absolutely a catastrophic mistake, but what that was  most likely dictated by a pro Russian  Ukrainian leader.

What better way to be prepared for unrest in the Ukraine than to have the President insure the military is set up for failure during an invasion?

In my opinion this is exactly what Yanukovch accomplished.

If we assume I'm correct, then the capabilities of the Ukrainian military must encompass more than just the Western media stating " they have no chance against the Russian Military"!

That is where I will head next; a break down of what the Ukrainian military is truly up against and how sabotaged are they?  

Hint, I think this plan by the Russians was so well thought out and pre-developed that it has lead to the lack of fighting so far; that and I Ukranian government that is reluctant to fight... just yet..

I don't think that reluctance is going to last very much longer and again, I am sure that also was part of the Russian planning. 

RUSSIAN PLANNING AND HOW DOES IT WORK?

Well... if you noticed, last night I stated the Tsar would not hesitate to move into the Ukraine...yes.... the Crimean is still part of the Ukraine.. at least for now....

When I woke this morning and read about the two airfields... Areal Ports of Demarcation / APODs / in the eyes of military planners.... I realized the Tsar was underway with his operation.

Now to say he is underway with his operation is to imply this whole thing was a deliberate action.

Well, that may be how the common, layperson perceives the statement so let me clarify what I mean here.

Every modern military has a process for contingency planning.

I can assure you the concept of having to "defend" / occupy the Crimean and even all of the Ukraine has been written time and time again.

Military plans have levels of detail that are simply amazing and can easily number in the thousands of pages especially when it is a regional level "war plan".

Yes.. I said "war plan".

If anyone truly thinks the Russian forces have only spent the last six days figuring out what they should do and how they should do it, then they have no concept of how planning actually takes place.

What the Russian did and are doing is executed some modified version of a more complex plan.

In military terminology; Russia is executing "Crisis Planning" based on Deliberate Planning.

Why is this important at this point in time?

Why is this worthy of me mentioning it rather than talking about what the West might or could do in reaction to the events of today?

Well, for one thing, the Western military planners started tracking this event from the assumption the Russians would be executing a known plan with mods based upon political inputs.

Again, why is that important?

As yourself this question.

How much effort has gone into knowing what these Russian plans might be?

How much effort has the Ukrainian military gone to in order to be prepared for just such an event taking place?

Here is the point I love to make.... How many Ukrainian Officers know interracial parts of the Russian plan and have changed their minds on who they side with?

I just love that one given I know the Russians are asking themselves the same question.

Sides are being and have been drawn.

Those that might jump ship are anticipated, but it's the ones who are not anticipated that can come back to haunt both sides.

Ok, back to the real issue at hand.

If we accept the fact the Russian forces are executing a version of a set plan, then the actions that may come next are not simply based on what some outside player says or comments on.

Simply put, the events of the next few days will not be some knee-jerk reaction.

It's the reason we say troops at the airports without magazines in their weapons this morning.

At this "phase" of the plan, it was anticipated they would not be needed or might even be used to send a quiet message to the West that, "things are not that bad yet".

Finally; Here is the most important thing to remember about deliberate military planning and it's an age old saying.

" No plan survives contact with the enemy"!

Everything seems to be going the way of the Russian, but that will change virtually in a flash.. and that flash will come from the muzzle of the other sides weapons.

Even then, "guidance" on how to far to let an event escalate becomes part of military planning, that is up until the event begins to change the perception of the operation.

At that point it time, things historically get out of hand and deliberate planning gives way to field level leadership..

Who are the "field leaders" the Russians  have sent into Ukraine / Crimea?

That is  a very....very ..important question and it will come up soon!

THE UKRAINE AND THE TSAR... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've been away for several months and a few folks have asked why. Well.... as I approached the end of a long career, the amount of time needed to "wrap things up" became more than time consuming.

Well... that's all behind me now getting back in the rhythm of providing my opinion of what is going on in the world won't  be that difficult.

Here is the difficult part, a great deal has changed and not much of it has been for the betterment of the world as a whole.

My intent is to quickly get back into the practice of daily injects and I am going to do my best to make that happen.

Ok; lets get down to the real work.

Where are we..... Middle East... South America.... and now Russia!!!!

I think the best process for getting things started again is to work  from a standpoint of generalizations and then move back into daily actions.

Having said that, here is the most pertinent comment I can possibly make given the current events in the Ukraine.

Whenever a nation, insert US here, allows a person who was appointed to a position of importance in it's agency that deals with international, governmental affairs to speak without understanding the repercussion of what they said... well.... history is ripe with stories of stupidity just prior to conflict.  

Having someone get on a unsecured cell phone and have a conversation they didn't think through much less realize it shouldn't have taken place " in the Open"...and have this conversation captured by a world leader who is more than just paranoid, but has a history of espionage.... need I say more?

Armature hour is a dangerous show when the audience is already worried about your "intent".

Let's look at the Ukrainian event from the Tsar's eyes for just one minute and lets do this by playing one of my favorite games... "Let's assume"...

Let's assume the Tsar believes the West is not so reckless or incompetent that they would accidentally provoke an uprising in Russia's backyard.

Let's assume he truly believes the West has deliberately provoked the events in the Ukraine.

Let's assume the Tsar believes this is taking place as a counterweight to his actions in the Middle East ..... Syria... Iran.....

Now, let's assume there is no way on God's Green Earth the Tsar is going to allow the Ukraine to slide into the "Western Camp".

Finally; let's assume the Tsar sees these actions as a prelude to provoking further unrest in oh....let's say.... Georgia!!!!

Ok, I hope everyone is finally getting the "big picture" here. 

What is taking place here is easily one of the most dangerous episodes of ether planned or accidental brinkmanship in decades.

If we accept the issue of Putin's perception, then we should try to move on to why did this really happen?

Was it truly a executed plan by the West?

Was the attempt to get the Ukraine into the EU and thus pulled away from Russian influence actually the "plot"?

My opinion is no, but then again, often the plans of one or two well placed idiots / madmen/ can set the world on a course it will find hard to stop...

Here is my question and it's admittedly of little importance right now with the exception of some academic pipe smokers staying up all night trying to empress their student bodies.

Is what is taking place in the Ukraine the next 2014 version of the Tunisian Virus?

If you look at my post from three years ago, you will see my theories on why I referred to the Arab Spring as a Virus.

So, is this the Ukrainian Spring?

Is this another example of social media being able to provide the tools of action in a society that was already suffering a lack of common vision?

Is social media the instrument of destruction when governance is unable to provide a society what it's looking for?

I know this discussion is already out there and I fully realize just how irrelevant the question is given the dangers we are facing, but the question stands.

What truly has brought the crisis in the Ukraine to a boiling point?

Once we ask the question of the impact of social media and the Arab Spring environment, I would like to add one additional question.

Where does the death of American Exceptionalism come into play or does it?

What are the long term repercussions of the worlds leading authority on freedom suddenly being removed as the world leader on the topic by its own leader?

If the President of the United States tells the world it will no longer "lead" but will fall in with the rest of the "pact", does that mean the world was ready for a leaderless future?

Is this how we really came to the events of the Arab Spring and the spread of social crisis?

If the Quarterback of the most successful Football team in the world walks up to the podium  one day and proclaims they are stepping down so the other teams can lead, does that mean the other teams are able to win the Super Bowl?

It was one thing to remove the US from the world stage, but did the leaders of the US take any actions to guarantee someone or some "Group" was ready to fill the void?

Is  the US responsible for what is taking place in the world?

Did we walk away from the table without a game plan?

Here is the scary part of that question.... is it too late to matter?

Well... I could dwell on this subject for hours, but lets get back to my original intent..... Big Picture review and a stab at what might happen next.

Actually, I think I may ready for the topic of, 'what might happen next'!

I've told a few of my coworkers and close friends what I predict may happen next.

The Tsar is not just a skillful political leader, he is a master of reprisal... just ask his deceased KGB / Russian Mob enemies.... if you can find the wholes their bodies were tossed into.

Will Russian troops move into the Crimean?

To me, that is like asking.. who is buried in Grant's Tomb.

Russian already has the Crimean secured and the Ukraine leadership.. those smart enough to know better... understand this.

Is keeping the Crimean enough for the Tsar?

No!

Crimea is the excuse.... keeping Georgia and the other regions that may see the events in the Ukraine as a opportunity.. that is the objective.. and that objective will be achieved at all cost... and listen to me when I tell you and when I say.. .at all cost!!!!

Are NATO forces and Russian forces about to go into conflict over the Ukraine?

No.

Is the Tsar capable and willing to create a crisis of equal or great proportion somewhere else...somewhere just as important to the West / US?

Yes!!

And where might that be?

If you guessed the Middle East, you understand what is taking place far better than you give yourself credit.

That's the next topic worthy of review.

What does the Tsar do to relieve the pressure?

That  will be tomorrow's topic along with any feedback on what has taken place in the past 24 hrs.

One last word of warning:

If it all starts to go bad for the Tsar, don't think for a minute Russian forces will not role into the Ukraine. 

Anyone who says that cannot happen is ether a fool or an liar!

Oh ya.. did anyone talk about Syria.. Egypt ... Venezuela today???

Gee.. Assad gets yet another pass.... for now..

The Tsar may give him and his Puppet Masters in Tehran marching orders sooner than they know. 

Oh ya.. the Tsar will not "ask" for help!!!

It may be time to pay up and pay up in full!

ARAFAT'S DEATH.. THE STORY CONTINUES, OR DOES IT?

If you have followed my post on the issue of Mr Arafat's death and the money his family sliced away from the Palestinian movement.. oh.. that's another story for another time.. you would know my opinion of Fatah and Hamas struggles is the center of gravity for this event.

                   

Once again, to put it simply; could Israel have had Arafat killed?

Yes.. 

Did Israel want him dead at the time in history when he died?

Before you answer that question with a mindless "yes", think about who would have benefited from his death the most and who did?

Did his widow turn in the money they had skimmed / swindled / take your pick,   off the movement.. .woops.. forgot.. wrong time for that story....

So this new round of scientific testing is over and it looks like the typical PHD / grant funded response we all should expect from academia.... "maybe".... Possibly... .ect.. ect...

Next question:

 Where is the outcry?

Where is the rioting in the streets over these "findings"?

Has anyone even heard the story retold in the past three weeks?

Nope, but perhaps in the Barbershops of the West Bank it might be a topic for a moment or two.

So, why  is there no real outcry on this earth shattering news?

I have my theory!

Those who are in the middle of a power struggle over the leadership of the Palestinian movement are too occupied to care.

Secondly; it's far too dangerous to make the Israelis go on the defensive over the issue.

Both Hamas and Fatah know full well the Israeli government could probably place the finger on Arafat's own followers and even it that was not true, they could make the case anyway!

Arafat is too far removed from the current problems of the region.. the Arabs / Persians... Nukes... Civil War in Syria.. ect... ect... oh ya... the Ottomans...

His ghost is not going to lead the Palestinian cause into the final stage of victory!

What was the real story behind the death of JFK... Nasser... Elvis..... ?

Who knows and to the youth of the West Bank and Gaza and to those Palestinians fighting in Syria in a religious Civil War...... who cares!!

Arafat was dug up, literally, too late to do the Palestinians any good.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/so-how-did-jaradat-really-die-and-does.html

NASRALLAH SPEAKS... BUT WHO CARES?

Nobody is surprised that Mr Nasrallah raised his head out of his hole and gave yet another fire and brimstone rant about War in the region.

So, the question once again becomes, who is his targeted audience?

The people of the GCC?

The West?

If his message was, "you better sign the deal with Iran or else", who was the message for?

Now, typically his threats are nothing more than motivational sound bites for his loyal followers in Lebanon, but this time around he may have actually had other intentions.

Here is my next question and perhaps one of his loyal follower can provide the answer.

Does he really think it will have one once of impact of the outcome of the Iranian talks?

Of course he knows it won't, so then ask the question of why?

Why did he give it?

Was he obligated  to say something on the holiday of Ashura?

Yep, that is the most likely reason he popped up!

Well, it's for that reason no one really cares what he said today.

Poor Mr Nasrallah.. He and his follower know he will never have a voice on when or where the fight with Israel will take place.

His phone will ring... the Persians will give him his orders and the Arab Muslim will go back to work killing Arab Muslims.....much like he is doing day by day in Syria.

His voice means nothing to his Masters and he knows it!

The Persians and their unbalanced, uneasy ally the Tsar pull the strings that make Mr Nasrallah dance ... and we all know it.

But, today....today.. he was once again allowed to sound important.. and his 15 min of fame for this week are over!

As soon as this empty statement was finished, he went back to his task at hand.... doing the bidding of the Persians and hiding his Shia dead as they are sent back from the battlefields of Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Nasrallah-Failure-to-strike-deal-with-Iran-will-result-in-regional-war-331673