RUSSIAN PLANNING AND HOW DOES IT WORK?

Well... if you noticed, last night I stated the Tsar would not hesitate to move into the Ukraine...yes.... the Crimean is still part of the Ukraine.. at least for now....

When I woke this morning and read about the two airfields... Areal Ports of Demarcation / APODs / in the eyes of military planners.... I realized the Tsar was underway with his operation.

Now to say he is underway with his operation is to imply this whole thing was a deliberate action.

Well, that may be how the common, layperson perceives the statement so let me clarify what I mean here.

Every modern military has a process for contingency planning.

I can assure you the concept of having to "defend" / occupy the Crimean and even all of the Ukraine has been written time and time again.

Military plans have levels of detail that are simply amazing and can easily number in the thousands of pages especially when it is a regional level "war plan".

Yes.. I said "war plan".

If anyone truly thinks the Russian forces have only spent the last six days figuring out what they should do and how they should do it, then they have no concept of how planning actually takes place.

What the Russian did and are doing is executed some modified version of a more complex plan.

In military terminology; Russia is executing "Crisis Planning" based on Deliberate Planning.

Why is this important at this point in time?

Why is this worthy of me mentioning it rather than talking about what the West might or could do in reaction to the events of today?

Well, for one thing, the Western military planners started tracking this event from the assumption the Russians would be executing a known plan with mods based upon political inputs.

Again, why is that important?

As yourself this question.

How much effort has gone into knowing what these Russian plans might be?

How much effort has the Ukrainian military gone to in order to be prepared for just such an event taking place?

Here is the point I love to make.... How many Ukrainian Officers know interracial parts of the Russian plan and have changed their minds on who they side with?

I just love that one given I know the Russians are asking themselves the same question.

Sides are being and have been drawn.

Those that might jump ship are anticipated, but it's the ones who are not anticipated that can come back to haunt both sides.

Ok, back to the real issue at hand.

If we accept the fact the Russian forces are executing a version of a set plan, then the actions that may come next are not simply based on what some outside player says or comments on.

Simply put, the events of the next few days will not be some knee-jerk reaction.

It's the reason we say troops at the airports without magazines in their weapons this morning.

At this "phase" of the plan, it was anticipated they would not be needed or might even be used to send a quiet message to the West that, "things are not that bad yet".

Finally; Here is the most important thing to remember about deliberate military planning and it's an age old saying.

" No plan survives contact with the enemy"!

Everything seems to be going the way of the Russian, but that will change virtually in a flash.. and that flash will come from the muzzle of the other sides weapons.

Even then, "guidance" on how to far to let an event escalate becomes part of military planning, that is up until the event begins to change the perception of the operation.

At that point it time, things historically get out of hand and deliberate planning gives way to field level leadership..

Who are the "field leaders" the Russians  have sent into Ukraine / Crimea?

That is  a very....very ..important question and it will come up soon!

THE UKRAINE AND THE TSAR... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've been away for several months and a few folks have asked why. Well.... as I approached the end of a long career, the amount of time needed to "wrap things up" became more than time consuming.

Well... that's all behind me now getting back in the rhythm of providing my opinion of what is going on in the world won't  be that difficult.

Here is the difficult part, a great deal has changed and not much of it has been for the betterment of the world as a whole.

My intent is to quickly get back into the practice of daily injects and I am going to do my best to make that happen.

Ok; lets get down to the real work.

Where are we..... Middle East... South America.... and now Russia!!!!

I think the best process for getting things started again is to work  from a standpoint of generalizations and then move back into daily actions.

Having said that, here is the most pertinent comment I can possibly make given the current events in the Ukraine.

Whenever a nation, insert US here, allows a person who was appointed to a position of importance in it's agency that deals with international, governmental affairs to speak without understanding the repercussion of what they said... well.... history is ripe with stories of stupidity just prior to conflict.  

Having someone get on a unsecured cell phone and have a conversation they didn't think through much less realize it shouldn't have taken place " in the Open"...and have this conversation captured by a world leader who is more than just paranoid, but has a history of espionage.... need I say more?

Armature hour is a dangerous show when the audience is already worried about your "intent".

Let's look at the Ukrainian event from the Tsar's eyes for just one minute and lets do this by playing one of my favorite games... "Let's assume"...

Let's assume the Tsar believes the West is not so reckless or incompetent that they would accidentally provoke an uprising in Russia's backyard.

Let's assume he truly believes the West has deliberately provoked the events in the Ukraine.

Let's assume the Tsar believes this is taking place as a counterweight to his actions in the Middle East ..... Syria... Iran.....

Now, let's assume there is no way on God's Green Earth the Tsar is going to allow the Ukraine to slide into the "Western Camp".

Finally; let's assume the Tsar sees these actions as a prelude to provoking further unrest in oh....let's say.... Georgia!!!!

Ok, I hope everyone is finally getting the "big picture" here. 

What is taking place here is easily one of the most dangerous episodes of ether planned or accidental brinkmanship in decades.

If we accept the issue of Putin's perception, then we should try to move on to why did this really happen?

Was it truly a executed plan by the West?

Was the attempt to get the Ukraine into the EU and thus pulled away from Russian influence actually the "plot"?

My opinion is no, but then again, often the plans of one or two well placed idiots / madmen/ can set the world on a course it will find hard to stop...

Here is my question and it's admittedly of little importance right now with the exception of some academic pipe smokers staying up all night trying to empress their student bodies.

Is what is taking place in the Ukraine the next 2014 version of the Tunisian Virus?

If you look at my post from three years ago, you will see my theories on why I referred to the Arab Spring as a Virus.

So, is this the Ukrainian Spring?

Is this another example of social media being able to provide the tools of action in a society that was already suffering a lack of common vision?

Is social media the instrument of destruction when governance is unable to provide a society what it's looking for?

I know this discussion is already out there and I fully realize just how irrelevant the question is given the dangers we are facing, but the question stands.

What truly has brought the crisis in the Ukraine to a boiling point?

Once we ask the question of the impact of social media and the Arab Spring environment, I would like to add one additional question.

Where does the death of American Exceptionalism come into play or does it?

What are the long term repercussions of the worlds leading authority on freedom suddenly being removed as the world leader on the topic by its own leader?

If the President of the United States tells the world it will no longer "lead" but will fall in with the rest of the "pact", does that mean the world was ready for a leaderless future?

Is this how we really came to the events of the Arab Spring and the spread of social crisis?

If the Quarterback of the most successful Football team in the world walks up to the podium  one day and proclaims they are stepping down so the other teams can lead, does that mean the other teams are able to win the Super Bowl?

It was one thing to remove the US from the world stage, but did the leaders of the US take any actions to guarantee someone or some "Group" was ready to fill the void?

Is  the US responsible for what is taking place in the world?

Did we walk away from the table without a game plan?

Here is the scary part of that question.... is it too late to matter?

Well... I could dwell on this subject for hours, but lets get back to my original intent..... Big Picture review and a stab at what might happen next.

Actually, I think I may ready for the topic of, 'what might happen next'!

I've told a few of my coworkers and close friends what I predict may happen next.

The Tsar is not just a skillful political leader, he is a master of reprisal... just ask his deceased KGB / Russian Mob enemies.... if you can find the wholes their bodies were tossed into.

Will Russian troops move into the Crimean?

To me, that is like asking.. who is buried in Grant's Tomb.

Russian already has the Crimean secured and the Ukraine leadership.. those smart enough to know better... understand this.

Is keeping the Crimean enough for the Tsar?

No!

Crimea is the excuse.... keeping Georgia and the other regions that may see the events in the Ukraine as a opportunity.. that is the objective.. and that objective will be achieved at all cost... and listen to me when I tell you and when I say.. .at all cost!!!!

Are NATO forces and Russian forces about to go into conflict over the Ukraine?

No.

Is the Tsar capable and willing to create a crisis of equal or great proportion somewhere else...somewhere just as important to the West / US?

Yes!!

And where might that be?

If you guessed the Middle East, you understand what is taking place far better than you give yourself credit.

That's the next topic worthy of review.

What does the Tsar do to relieve the pressure?

That  will be tomorrow's topic along with any feedback on what has taken place in the past 24 hrs.

One last word of warning:

If it all starts to go bad for the Tsar, don't think for a minute Russian forces will not role into the Ukraine. 

Anyone who says that cannot happen is ether a fool or an liar!

Oh ya.. did anyone talk about Syria.. Egypt ... Venezuela today???

Gee.. Assad gets yet another pass.... for now..

The Tsar may give him and his Puppet Masters in Tehran marching orders sooner than they know. 

Oh ya.. the Tsar will not "ask" for help!!!

It may be time to pay up and pay up in full!

ARAFAT'S DEATH.. THE STORY CONTINUES, OR DOES IT?

If you have followed my post on the issue of Mr Arafat's death and the money his family sliced away from the Palestinian movement.. oh.. that's another story for another time.. you would know my opinion of Fatah and Hamas struggles is the center of gravity for this event.

                   

Once again, to put it simply; could Israel have had Arafat killed?

Yes.. 

Did Israel want him dead at the time in history when he died?

Before you answer that question with a mindless "yes", think about who would have benefited from his death the most and who did?

Did his widow turn in the money they had skimmed / swindled / take your pick,   off the movement.. .woops.. forgot.. wrong time for that story....

So this new round of scientific testing is over and it looks like the typical PHD / grant funded response we all should expect from academia.... "maybe".... Possibly... .ect.. ect...

Next question:

 Where is the outcry?

Where is the rioting in the streets over these "findings"?

Has anyone even heard the story retold in the past three weeks?

Nope, but perhaps in the Barbershops of the West Bank it might be a topic for a moment or two.

So, why  is there no real outcry on this earth shattering news?

I have my theory!

Those who are in the middle of a power struggle over the leadership of the Palestinian movement are too occupied to care.

Secondly; it's far too dangerous to make the Israelis go on the defensive over the issue.

Both Hamas and Fatah know full well the Israeli government could probably place the finger on Arafat's own followers and even it that was not true, they could make the case anyway!

Arafat is too far removed from the current problems of the region.. the Arabs / Persians... Nukes... Civil War in Syria.. ect... ect... oh ya... the Ottomans...

His ghost is not going to lead the Palestinian cause into the final stage of victory!

What was the real story behind the death of JFK... Nasser... Elvis..... ?

Who knows and to the youth of the West Bank and Gaza and to those Palestinians fighting in Syria in a religious Civil War...... who cares!!

Arafat was dug up, literally, too late to do the Palestinians any good.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/so-how-did-jaradat-really-die-and-does.html

NASRALLAH SPEAKS... BUT WHO CARES?

Nobody is surprised that Mr Nasrallah raised his head out of his hole and gave yet another fire and brimstone rant about War in the region.

So, the question once again becomes, who is his targeted audience?

The people of the GCC?

The West?

If his message was, "you better sign the deal with Iran or else", who was the message for?

Now, typically his threats are nothing more than motivational sound bites for his loyal followers in Lebanon, but this time around he may have actually had other intentions.

Here is my next question and perhaps one of his loyal follower can provide the answer.

Does he really think it will have one once of impact of the outcome of the Iranian talks?

Of course he knows it won't, so then ask the question of why?

Why did he give it?

Was he obligated  to say something on the holiday of Ashura?

Yep, that is the most likely reason he popped up!

Well, it's for that reason no one really cares what he said today.

Poor Mr Nasrallah.. He and his follower know he will never have a voice on when or where the fight with Israel will take place.

His phone will ring... the Persians will give him his orders and the Arab Muslim will go back to work killing Arab Muslims.....much like he is doing day by day in Syria.

His voice means nothing to his Masters and he knows it!

The Persians and their unbalanced, uneasy ally the Tsar pull the strings that make Mr Nasrallah dance ... and we all know it.

But, today....today.. he was once again allowed to sound important.. and his 15 min of fame for this week are over!

As soon as this empty statement was finished, he went back to his task at hand.... doing the bidding of the Persians and hiding his Shia dead as they are sent back from the battlefields of Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Nasrallah-Failure-to-strike-deal-with-Iran-will-result-in-regional-war-331673

THE BATTLE FOR ALEPPO.. AN UPDATE... IF ONE IS REALLY NEEDED!

Ok, so rumor, Turkish rumors that is, are flying over the Battle for Aleppo and the areas around it.

You know I have said for over a year now that a true conflict for the status of Aleppo is a Bridge Too Far for the Assad Puppet!

Hezbollah is not capable of tipping the balance of such a scaled force on force conflict as Aleppo, regardless of what their overweight blow hard leader spurts out at one his raging press conferences.

Now, it's true the victories of the Tsar over the called off attack on Assad have embolden the Shia fighters and it's also true the Kurds have drawn more than their share of attention away from the Sunni units pushing for victory in Syria.

But, the facts remain the same.

The supporters of Assad do not have the ability to take or hold Aleppo and they know it.

Those who understand the art of conflict realize the actions taking place in Aleppo are equivalent to a continuing counterstrike against the enemies stronghold; a stronghold that was long ago conceded to the Rebels.

Two years ago, I made the argument that Assad had to do far more than win decisive battles on his own land.

What was true at the beginning of the Syrian Civil War remains true today.

The government under siege must not only defeat the enemy, they must return a since of order / normalcy to the land.

So tell me; how Does Assad give his people, what is left of them, a perception they are going to go back to a normal life?

Tell me how you paint that picture when a city such as Aleppo, the equivalent of Syria's New York City, is a smoldering pile of concrete dust?

What is ever going to be "normal" again about no water, limited power and not a window

left in the city?

Who is going to fund an infrastructure program of the magnitude required in Syria if Assad and his Bosses battle to a stalemate?

Iran?  

Really?

the Tsar?

He will sell them new tanks... oil... and rockets.. but he could care not a damn about doors, windows and sewer plants... no money there!

So once again, let's face reality.

Assad and his Puppet Masters lost the conflict for Syria the day it started.

Syria will never again be what it was as long as the Assad / Shia / Persian / Russian Alliance is in power.

 Are the Persians worried about the power in Aleppo?

Please!

Assad's tanks could drive up and down the streets of Aleppo for months and the city will never be normal again... not under his rule!!

The only people who will ever be interested in rebuilding anything in Syria are those who make money rebuilding things..

Yep.. the Capitalist!!

The GCC.... EU.. ect...ect..

The Battle for Eleppo...... What does it really matter?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122625

KHAMENEI; " WE SHOULD NOT TRUST AN ENEMY WHO SMILES"!!!!

Truer words have never been said and it's more than ironic Khamenei spoke them!

I've attached two interesting stories that relate to a topic I've addressed on several occasions. 

Here is the question much of the world is trying to find the real answer to.

Just what is Iran attempting to achieve?

A real change with it's longstanding adversaries... with the exception of Israel?

Are they buying time with some great deception plan?

Like many others around me, I've tried to find a definitive answer to this pressing issue, but it's simply too complicated and far too important to speculate to the point of standing on a conclusion.

For the sake of argument, let's skip over determining the real answer of Iran's actions and instead, let's concentrate on what risk Iran is actually taking.

As I've done several times in the past, I would ask that we once again play the, "What if" game!

Ok; here how it goes this time.

What if:

What if the, "enemy that smiles" approach taken by the Iran is the real answer?

What is the real risk the Iranian Leader is taking?

Is it the threat of the West not taking the bait?

Is it the threat the Israelis may finally convince themselves they must go to war "alone"?

PS.. Here is my reminder... they will not be "alone"... even if the US / West abandons them... think GCC... and you are on the right track.

Is the real threat of this "enemy that smiles" plan an internal threat?

BINGO!

If you said yes, you may very well win the prize.

What if:

What if the Iranian youth didn't realize this whole process was simply a way of buying time?

What if those in Iran who longed for greater freedoms and normality truly believed change was coming to Iran?

If Khamenei is standing knee deep in social unrest gasoline, can he afford to be smoking?

One of the attached stories address Khamenei warning the conservatives in Iran to support Rouhani in his ongoing negotiations.

Really?

Who is he warning?

Yes, there exist factions inside of Iran as there are in any government, but Khamenei warning those who are not in the inner government to not interfere is more confusing than he may have imagined.

What if:

What if the disillusioned  members of Iranian society interpreted Khanenei's warning as a sign the time was right to push for more progressive leadership?

What if:

What if the real threat of playing the "Enemy who smiles" game came from your own society?

Ah yes, the world of Second Order Effects and the  Law of Unintended Consequences, two of my favorite topics, may play large in this smiling game!

The final segment of this month's episode of " the What If Game"!!

What if:

What if Iran's real enemies, Israel and Saudi, believed this smiling game could be leveraged against Mr Khamenei?

He has his distracters in Iran and his enemies know of these distracters.

As we sit here tonight, wonder what Iran is really up to, I will ask this one simple question.

Are those who worry about Iran really fretting over the right question?

In the Chess game called the Middle East, has Khamenei made the right more at the right moment in time?

Sometimes when you think you have "check" .. you end up in "Checkmate"!

Someone call and see if Riyadh and or Jerusalem is playing Chess tonight!

 http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122087

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/518735-iran-arrests-head-of-reformist-daily

EGYPT AND THE COVER OF SYRIA:

Now I realize I've not addressed the issue of Egypt for well over a month now, but I can assure you there remains a great deal to discuss.

As is always the case with me, let me attempt to keep this as unacademic as possible.

It's no mystery the current Egyptian leadership has taken full advantage of the complete distraction that continues in Syria.

Having said that, many Westerners simply don't realize just how neutralized the Muslim Brotherhood has become and if you don't think so, just call their best friend Mr Erdogan in Turkey and ask him!

If we realize the Egyptian leadership has taken advantage of the Syrian crisis, we still have to ask the question, " why hasn't someone cried foul"?

Well, here is my answer.

Who is available to do so?

The GCC is firmly in the corner of the Egyptian government.

The Israelis are ecstatic over the whole situation in Egypt to the point they are allowing the Egyptian military to fly over Gaza.. Just think about that statement for a minute.

The Tsrar!! He is already heading down the road of getting out the military hardware catalog and letting the Egyptian Generals gaze at it like little kids at Christmas time.

The Ottoman then?

Well, yes EgoDan is fuming over the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood, but the fires of Syria are too close to his own house and the Kurds are walking around with buckets full of gasoline!

The Iranians? Nope .... no help there.... The old Sunni / Shia issue regardless of what anyone tries to tell you.

Jordan?

Forget.... the King is happy as happy could be... He may even move on his own MB members before too long... the timing is right..

Lets face facts.

Next week starts the trial of Morsi and a few other of his loyal lapdogs and the Muslim Brotherhood is simply powerless to do anything about it.

The world may watch... the world may even say a few encouraging words, but the bottom-line is the MB experiment in Egypt has failed, at least for years to come.

Oh ya.

Nobody and I mean nobody is happier than the Royal families of the GCC.

SIDE NOTE:

Starting Friday.. I am going to introduce a new site that talks to the issue of Mexico.

Why am I doing this, well... I will tell you it's more important than most of you think.

If you could do me a favor, please pass the word.. What I have to say about the events and future of Mexico is something I am more and more passionate about.

It will be

 coldansviewpointmexico.blogspot.com