THE BATTLE FOR ALEPPO.. AN UPDATE... IF ONE IS REALLY NEEDED!

Ok, so rumor, Turkish rumors that is, are flying over the Battle for Aleppo and the areas around it.

You know I have said for over a year now that a true conflict for the status of Aleppo is a Bridge Too Far for the Assad Puppet!

Hezbollah is not capable of tipping the balance of such a scaled force on force conflict as Aleppo, regardless of what their overweight blow hard leader spurts out at one his raging press conferences.

Now, it's true the victories of the Tsar over the called off attack on Assad have embolden the Shia fighters and it's also true the Kurds have drawn more than their share of attention away from the Sunni units pushing for victory in Syria.

But, the facts remain the same.

The supporters of Assad do not have the ability to take or hold Aleppo and they know it.

Those who understand the art of conflict realize the actions taking place in Aleppo are equivalent to a continuing counterstrike against the enemies stronghold; a stronghold that was long ago conceded to the Rebels.

Two years ago, I made the argument that Assad had to do far more than win decisive battles on his own land.

What was true at the beginning of the Syrian Civil War remains true today.

The government under siege must not only defeat the enemy, they must return a since of order / normalcy to the land.

So tell me; how Does Assad give his people, what is left of them, a perception they are going to go back to a normal life?

Tell me how you paint that picture when a city such as Aleppo, the equivalent of Syria's New York City, is a smoldering pile of concrete dust?

What is ever going to be "normal" again about no water, limited power and not a window

left in the city?

Who is going to fund an infrastructure program of the magnitude required in Syria if Assad and his Bosses battle to a stalemate?

Iran?  

Really?

the Tsar?

He will sell them new tanks... oil... and rockets.. but he could care not a damn about doors, windows and sewer plants... no money there!

So once again, let's face reality.

Assad and his Puppet Masters lost the conflict for Syria the day it started.

Syria will never again be what it was as long as the Assad / Shia / Persian / Russian Alliance is in power.

 Are the Persians worried about the power in Aleppo?

Please!

Assad's tanks could drive up and down the streets of Aleppo for months and the city will never be normal again... not under his rule!!

The only people who will ever be interested in rebuilding anything in Syria are those who make money rebuilding things..

Yep.. the Capitalist!!

The GCC.... EU.. ect...ect..

The Battle for Eleppo...... What does it really matter?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122625

KHAMENEI; " WE SHOULD NOT TRUST AN ENEMY WHO SMILES"!!!!

Truer words have never been said and it's more than ironic Khamenei spoke them!

I've attached two interesting stories that relate to a topic I've addressed on several occasions. 

Here is the question much of the world is trying to find the real answer to.

Just what is Iran attempting to achieve?

A real change with it's longstanding adversaries... with the exception of Israel?

Are they buying time with some great deception plan?

Like many others around me, I've tried to find a definitive answer to this pressing issue, but it's simply too complicated and far too important to speculate to the point of standing on a conclusion.

For the sake of argument, let's skip over determining the real answer of Iran's actions and instead, let's concentrate on what risk Iran is actually taking.

As I've done several times in the past, I would ask that we once again play the, "What if" game!

Ok; here how it goes this time.

What if:

What if the, "enemy that smiles" approach taken by the Iran is the real answer?

What is the real risk the Iranian Leader is taking?

Is it the threat of the West not taking the bait?

Is it the threat the Israelis may finally convince themselves they must go to war "alone"?

PS.. Here is my reminder... they will not be "alone"... even if the US / West abandons them... think GCC... and you are on the right track.

Is the real threat of this "enemy that smiles" plan an internal threat?

BINGO!

If you said yes, you may very well win the prize.

What if:

What if the Iranian youth didn't realize this whole process was simply a way of buying time?

What if those in Iran who longed for greater freedoms and normality truly believed change was coming to Iran?

If Khamenei is standing knee deep in social unrest gasoline, can he afford to be smoking?

One of the attached stories address Khamenei warning the conservatives in Iran to support Rouhani in his ongoing negotiations.

Really?

Who is he warning?

Yes, there exist factions inside of Iran as there are in any government, but Khamenei warning those who are not in the inner government to not interfere is more confusing than he may have imagined.

What if:

What if the disillusioned  members of Iranian society interpreted Khanenei's warning as a sign the time was right to push for more progressive leadership?

What if:

What if the real threat of playing the "Enemy who smiles" game came from your own society?

Ah yes, the world of Second Order Effects and the  Law of Unintended Consequences, two of my favorite topics, may play large in this smiling game!

The final segment of this month's episode of " the What If Game"!!

What if:

What if Iran's real enemies, Israel and Saudi, believed this smiling game could be leveraged against Mr Khamenei?

He has his distracters in Iran and his enemies know of these distracters.

As we sit here tonight, wonder what Iran is really up to, I will ask this one simple question.

Are those who worry about Iran really fretting over the right question?

In the Chess game called the Middle East, has Khamenei made the right more at the right moment in time?

Sometimes when you think you have "check" .. you end up in "Checkmate"!

Someone call and see if Riyadh and or Jerusalem is playing Chess tonight!

 http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122087

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/518735-iran-arrests-head-of-reformist-daily

EGYPT AND THE COVER OF SYRIA:

Now I realize I've not addressed the issue of Egypt for well over a month now, but I can assure you there remains a great deal to discuss.

As is always the case with me, let me attempt to keep this as unacademic as possible.

It's no mystery the current Egyptian leadership has taken full advantage of the complete distraction that continues in Syria.

Having said that, many Westerners simply don't realize just how neutralized the Muslim Brotherhood has become and if you don't think so, just call their best friend Mr Erdogan in Turkey and ask him!

If we realize the Egyptian leadership has taken advantage of the Syrian crisis, we still have to ask the question, " why hasn't someone cried foul"?

Well, here is my answer.

Who is available to do so?

The GCC is firmly in the corner of the Egyptian government.

The Israelis are ecstatic over the whole situation in Egypt to the point they are allowing the Egyptian military to fly over Gaza.. Just think about that statement for a minute.

The Tsrar!! He is already heading down the road of getting out the military hardware catalog and letting the Egyptian Generals gaze at it like little kids at Christmas time.

The Ottoman then?

Well, yes EgoDan is fuming over the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood, but the fires of Syria are too close to his own house and the Kurds are walking around with buckets full of gasoline!

The Iranians? Nope .... no help there.... The old Sunni / Shia issue regardless of what anyone tries to tell you.

Jordan?

Forget.... the King is happy as happy could be... He may even move on his own MB members before too long... the timing is right..

Lets face facts.

Next week starts the trial of Morsi and a few other of his loyal lapdogs and the Muslim Brotherhood is simply powerless to do anything about it.

The world may watch... the world may even say a few encouraging words, but the bottom-line is the MB experiment in Egypt has failed, at least for years to come.

Oh ya.

Nobody and I mean nobody is happier than the Royal families of the GCC.

SIDE NOTE:

Starting Friday.. I am going to introduce a new site that talks to the issue of Mexico.

Why am I doing this, well... I will tell you it's more important than most of you think.

If you could do me a favor, please pass the word.. What I have to say about the events and future of Mexico is something I am more and more passionate about.

It will be

 coldansviewpointmexico.blogspot.com

HEZBOLLAH AND THE FUTURE'S BLOCK.. A TICKET TO NOWHERE!

Two stories here and both draw us to the same conclusion; Lebanon is deadlocked.

First of, you can always tell when Nesrallah has no logical explanation for his actions; he simply points his finger towards Israel and starts babbling like a five year old!

As of the issue of forming a working government in Lebanon, well that is more than a pipe dream right now.

The Future's block has placed an impossible requirement on Hezbollah with the comment they must withdraw from Syria before any talk of a coalition government for Lebanon.

Everyone, including the Future Party, knows full well this is not going to happen.

Now, I  must admit, the concept of watching politicians stand around and point fingers at each other is common place, but Lebanon's issues are far more dangerous than most.

In a time of true social and political crisis, a nation can ill afford to have little unity much less absolutely no unity!

Most of us realize the fuse of Lebanon is burned down to the casing of the bomb and yet the so called leaders are still deadlocked in a death gaze battle.

Throughout history, when governance is unable to lead, someone or some group will fill the void.

In Lebanon's case that void is about to be filled by a whole gaggle of clans and groups throughout the nation and we all know where that leads.

Time and time again, I have made the statement that as Lebanon goes, so goes the future of the region.

Somehow the parties involved in the proxy war between the Persians and the Arabs, and notice how this Arab / Persian split is leveraged in the story of the Future's Block meeting, have managed to or been unable to light the fires for the whole region.

Battle lines continue to be drawn, even while the fools at the UN still plan on holding court for the STL process..

Does anyone remember the STL issue?

Persians forcing violence on Arabs in Lebanon and Syria.,.... that's not just the message delivered by the Block members.

This script is scripted ... if you catch my drift!

The writers of this pending tragedy live to the South and are preoccupied with the horror of Women driving cars!!!!

Really!!

Oh ya.... the Royals worry about cracks in the government armor... the armor that keeps the radicals content and the sake of the oppressed public.

Is anyone really trying to figure out a way to salvage the Middle East?

If you happen to find someone, please send me their name!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Oct-30/236250-future-no-partnership-until-hezbollah-leaves-syria.ashx#axzz2jAHdLIcp

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Nasrallah-blames-Israel-for-17000-Lebanese-missing-persons-330082

GENEVA-2... WHAT IS THE POINT?

Ok, the who's who of who is coming and who is not coming to the maybe on maybe off Geneva 2 conference is not near as interesting as the wondering over why this meeting is taking place and who is it really for?

Is the Arab League shaping the process?

Is the Tsar?

Is the West?

How about the Turks...

The GCC????

Yep, you guessed it... what in the world is going on here and what is the purpose?

Oh and by the way... if the real battle for  Qalamoun is underway by the time this Geneva cocktail party / soap opera starts, you can bet the date will be pushed back yet again.

Here is the next question.

Is Geneva 2 about Syria or is it about the Tsar and his desire to once again out maneuver the West?

Is it about the GCC making a point on what they are willing to do in their proxy war with the Persians?

Is it a stepping stone to some nuclear agreement with Iran?

Is it about the so called Syrian government in exile... you know.. the ones sitting in Turkey and London drinking mix drinks and attending meetings with people who would not have given them the time of day two years ago?

Is anyone really going to show up and talk about ending the fighting in Syria?

Here is my bet and it's in two parts.

First off, the event is going to be overtaken by the Qalamoun issue unless Assad's Master in Tehran gets the phone call from the Tsar to hold off until after the Dog and Pony show in Geneva.

Secondly; you should assume the GCC / Saudi  will also have a vote on Geneva 2 taking place.

If the Russians blew them off last month stacked on top of the US change of heart, then my bet is the Saudis are not in any frame of mind that leads to the West or the Tsar looking like a leader in Geneva.

Lets face facts... .nobody expect anything out of Geneva 2...3 ..4...5...ect....ect....

The true fighters in Syria are not coming to the party and the money behind them is in no mood to bend to the pressure of the West or the Tsar.

Qalamoun is the issue and the end state is Hezbollah pulled back into a Lebanon cast into the fires of Civil War.

I will end tonight with yet another classic example of an applicable adage.

" Money talks and Bullsh-- walks".. Hence.. the GCC and those showing up to nap at Geneva 2.

HEZBOLLAH AND ORDERS OF THEIR PERSIAN MASTERS!

So, how dare the Saudi leadership "interfere" in Lebanese political matters?

The nerve of those "meddlers" trying to keep Hezbollah from forcing their will on the people of Lebanon!

Yep, as outrageous as this statement may sound, Hezbollah leadership and loyal followers completely believe this is a valid complaint.

Now, are the Saudis  actually influencing events in Lebanon?

Silly question!

If you can find me someone in the region who doesn't understand the proxy fight that is taking place between Saudi and Iran, then I would submit that name for the next round of Dancing with the Stars!!!

Whenever I hear Hezbollah complaining about how they are being treated or in this case not being allowed to run Lebanon, I have to laugh!

Let me tell you what Hezbollah's Master does realize.

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.... Insert Saudi / GCC and Israel here!!!!

Then pending battle of Lebanon is a price Hezbollah can ill afford to pay.

The peaceful existence of Hezbllah's villages and towns are at stake  and with each passing day, their loyal supporters see the doom just over the horizon.

I would be willing to bet you the tension amongst Hezbollah's families, supporters is to the point the ultimate blame for the destruction about to rain down on them is going to end on the doorstep of leadership.... .Hezbollah leadership!!!

I've said this time and time again and here we go again.....

Hezbollah is about to bring pain to the people of Lebanon and all for the sake of severing their Persian Masters!

Arab's are killing Arabs and the Persians could care less!

For days an epic battle along the border of Lebanon and Syria has occupied just about every conversation in the region.

This pending battle is going to prove to be disastrous for current Hezbollah leadership and hiding in Syria may end up being a safer option than sleeping in Lebanon.

Shia Arabs are heading to the graves at the control of the Persians and that is a scenario that is not going to last.

As for the Iranians, I would remind them of yet another age old adage; " You can win the Battle and lose the War"!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Oct-28/235992-hezbollah-blames-saudi-arabia-for-deadlock-parliament-paralysis.ashx#axzz2iyXIJLxn

TRIPOLI AND THE PENDING BATTLE OF QALAMOUN :

So, is there a collation between the much anticipated battle of Qalamoun and the conflict now in it's six day in Tripoli?

The short answer is yes, but the reasoning is far more important to comprehend than just this simple answer.

We have talked time and time again about the issue of Saudi  forcing countermoves  in the proxy war with the Persians.

Given it is Friday night, and I have Halo games to play, let me get right to the point.

Saudi and it's Sunni fighters would be foolish to allow Assad and his hired Guns / Hezbollah to dictate the rhythm of the pending battle for Qalamoun.

This concept is so repugnant, we must assume it's not going to happen; hence, the issue of Tripoli!

The fires that are starting in Tripoli are not new, but this time around even the Lebanese leadership fears the outcome will be different; along with the UN if you've been reading the regional news today!

So, are the Hezbollah forces preparing for a combined conflict in Lebanon?

Yes.

Is it Tripoli that will be the center of the fighting in Lebanon?

No.

Tripoli will be a battle of small somewhat well armed militia groups, but the preparation by Hezbollah has a more important objective.

The Bekaa Valley!

Where is the Sunni counter strike going to take place?

Yep...  The Valley!

Will Beirut be spared?

That depends on just how hot the conflict gets.

I will tell you this; as of tonight, the odds of Lebanon sliding into full scale crisis is now higher than at any moment in the Proxy war between the Persians and the Arabs...

Yes... That is what is now taking place in the region!

It is no longer about Syria and the people of Syria wishing for greater freedoms; freedoms the defenders of freedom, the West, seem no longer willing to defend.

What we are now witnessing is the beginning of the next phase of the Persian / Shia / Arab Sunni conflict.

Can the Arabs get the Shia Arabs to pull away and turn this conflict into truly what it should become; a battle between the Persians and the Arabs?

Keep you eye on Iraq!

Let's see what true line of loyalty exist!

Religion or Blood!