SISI TAKES ACTION...NOW WHAT? ENTER THE TSAR!!!

Well, here comes the question that was bound to be asked.

Now what?

The pro Morsi supporters officially have their desired title, " Victim"!

How did it happen?

Who fired the fist rounds?

Does it really matter now?

The art of pointing fingers is somewhat irrelevant at this point in time.

Another event that took place today  that caused a great deal of conversation was the departure of  Vice President ElBaradei!

Now, most of us have been convinced from day one of Sisi's move on Morsi that ElBaradei was a puppet on a string.

So, does it really matter ElBaradei left Sisi's camp today?

Look at this question from the perspective of Sisi.

Who are the anti Morsi supporters really supportive of?

ElBaradei?

Perhaps!

 But not to the level that Sisi actually needed to factor in his support to the planning process.

Does it damage the Sisi govenment that ElBaradei left?

Again, that depends on how to weigh his support.

From the perspective of Turkey and it's dictator "Egodan", it does supply political ammunition as he fights to save the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

Does Sisi really care what Turkey's own Islamic Dictator says about today's actions in Egypt?

Nope!

Does Sis really care what the West has to  say about his actions?

Perhaps a bit more than Egodan's comments, but even then the issue doesn't seem to have enough weight to alter Sisi's actions.

Don't forget Sisi has a "Sugar Daddy / Daddies" in the GCC... / Saudi....

" You do what you need to do to trample this Islamic camouflaged Arab Socialist movement called the Muslim Brotherhood and we will take care of your bills"!

That might seem a little oversimplified, but the reality is, that is exactly what the Monarchies of the GCC are doing.

Ok, let's get back to the original question.....     ...... Now what?

Egypt is in a full blown, predicted crisis and very few if any outsiders have any inclination to get involved beyond the use of words and speeches!

So, let's ask the question in a different way.

Who does have the gumption to get involved or even take advantage of this predicted crisis?

If you guessed the Tsar.... you get a star!!!!

Would Putin take advantage of this crisis?

Does a Wild Bear sh.... ..well... you know where I'm going with this one!!!

Just about every world leader is going to feel compelled to give some grandiose statements in the next day or so... .that is the ones that have not already done so.

What I will watch for is the words of the Tsar and more importantly, the actions of Master of manipulation.

If Egypt is going to slip into an Algerian type of crisis, there is not much others are willing or able to do to stop it.

What the Tsar will set out to accomplish is to take advantage of the coming events in Egypt.

I would be willing to bet the meeting between the Saudi's and the Russians last week discussed this very event and what was agreed to is fascinating to contemplate.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Aug-15/227442-egypt-on-brink-after-bloody-wednesday.ashx#axzz2bzVV3ZWf

EGYPT.. CLASHES ERUPT.... BIG SURPRISE!!!!

Let's cover two issues today with one being a follow up on yesterday's comments and the other being, what I consider a far more interesting twist to the events in Egypt.

First the follow up issue:

Yesterday I spoke to the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood and the pro Morsi followers needing to stay in the position of " victim" and how the pro Sisi government, at least part of it, may have figured out how to strip that title away from the Morsi camp.

Well, if yhou can't get the government to move on the camps, then why not press the issue; why not march towards those who you need desperately to abuse you?

In my opinion, that is exactly what took place today.

The problem was, at least for now, it doesn't seem the Sisi government took the bait!

As a matter of fact, most of the "victims" were actually the ones caught on video tossing rocks at the government forces.

So, the plan was probably to instigate a violent event and thus secure your title of "victim".

With only apx ten "victims" reportedly hurt in the incident, I would be willing to say the plan failed!!!

Now what?

What is the next move?

If you are the pro Morsi camp, you probably come to  the conclusion you need to turn up the heat.

If you are  the pro Sisi camp, you most likely realized the tactic you responded with today worked.

Will the tactic of the pro Sisi camp work again; even if the Morsi camp pushes the issue harder?

Does the pro Sisi camp wait until the "victims" push too hard, do something too violent and then use that event to bring the pain on the camps?

That would be my bet and we will have to see if I'm right.

Ok, on to the next topic:    The use of Drones!!!

I must admit, when I first heard of this, I instinctively believed it was a Law Enforcement operation designed to give them better, real time, situational awareness of what was taking place inside the camps.

Now, it's a blast of the obvious to admit the pro Sisi government has "insiders" tucked away in the protest and those members are feeding information at all times.

But,  the risk of discovery is there and the price that would be paid for being discovered would most likely be in blood!

Having said that, would the pro Sisi camp use aerial assets, to include drones?

Yep!

Here is the interesting part.

The story attached is about the utilization of drones by the pro Morsi camp!

Now, the story goes they are utilized to create a "message" of how much support there is for the pro Morsi camp.

Getting the word out is a vital concept for the pro Morsi camp and the idea that some of them have figure out how to use drones to do that is simply brilliant.

As I watched this story, I couldn't help but wonder, "what if they used their drones to do more than shape the message"?

 A drone at the altitude shown in the video can show you, at a tactical level, a great deal more than how many supporters you have.

Where are the government forces?

Where are they moving?

What equipment do they have just out of site?

Again, all these things can be captured by well placed members of the cause, but again the danger lies with the risk of being caught.

Here is my next bet.

If the pro Sisi government forces begin to truly make a move on the crowd, the internet connection in the area and the radio frequencies these "toys" drones work off of, will come down first.

Some have talked about how the forces may move on the pro Morsi camp and how they may cut off water, electricity and so on.

You can add two more to the growing list; Internet connectivity and radio frequencies.

Drones in a protest????

Now there is a twist I would be willing to be expands far beyond Egypt, if it has not already done so.

Just imagine drones flying over an event / demonstration in the US?

What an interesting turn of events this has become!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/2013813123647742511.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2013/08/20138133950103343.html

IS EGYPT'S INTERIM GOVERNMENT REALLY IN "DEADLOCK"?

I've not commented on the events in Egypt for several days for one simple reason, nobody believed Sisi's government, and that is just what Egypt has right now, was going to  move on it's own people until after the Eid al-Fitr.

Well, the Holiday is over and nothing took place, yet!

Why?

As this article mentions, some are growing more and more convinced the "unity" of the anti Morsi camp is falling apart.

Is that really what is taking place?

I will tell you, that is precisely how the Muslim Brotherhood is attempting to paint the picture.

Let's assume for a minute the division in the anti Morsi camp is a growing event that is now out in the open.

What does it mean to the course of Egypt?

If you answered with the theory of Egypt could now become even more dangerous, you would be correct!

If the non military members of the anti Morsi camp are reluctant to spill the blood of the protesters, then it will become nearly impossible for Sisi to continue to present a unified front and when that happens the events could and will most likely will swing towards reactionary violence not controlled  by the Sisi government.

You see, the Morsi supporters are no different than the Sisi supporters.

Days and weeks on end of stagnation will not bring them any closer to their goal; ether side.

The radical elements of the MB know they must continue to be cast in the part of the "victim" and sitting around listening to the same old worn out lectures for weeks on end will not create that desired outcome.

Both sites are already considered by many as nothing but a drain on the majority of Egyptians who are struggling to get back to some level of a normal life!

The status of "victim" is a must for the MB camp and without that status their objective may just fall apart.

Ironic when you consider that just two weeks ago all the talk centered around the Sisi government couldn't count on continued support if the protest sites were allowed to be seen on international news day after day....week after week....

So, both sides have now had to deal with the consequences of inaction!

Here is where the story really gets complex.

If the Sisi government decides the price of crushing the camps is too great and the world wide repercussions are too risky, then the decision may have been made to delay!

On the other hand; if the MB / Morsi camp has come to realize the lack of violence will eventfully weaken their stance, then perhaps they must provide the violence?

The question then becomes what type of violence and against whom?

Does the pro Morsi camp attack the pro Sisi organizations around the camps?

Does the pro Morsi camp inflict violence on their own supporters to give the perception the Sisi government has moved to violence?

Does the Sisi government instigate an event that shows it's followers as the victims?

Has anything like anyone of these incidents every taken place in the Middle East?

Now; there is a silly question!!!

So, I ask again; what happens next?

Perhaps the more important question becomes, " who did what"?

A wise US President once said, "Trust, but verify"!!!

The verification process!!!! How will that work?

If Sisi decides to move on the camps and the non military side of his camp does not agree, then the future of Egypt is really in doubt!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/mena/egypt-deadlocked-over-crackdown-on-pro-morsi-camps

EGYPT.. .WHEN WILL THE NEXT MOVE TAKE PLACE?

The common theory as  to why Sisi has not moved on the Morsi supporters seem to be very consistent.

The latest round of diplomatic initiatives created an un-opportunistic time to shed blood on the streets of Egypt's major cities.

As of today, the majority of the "group think" is now pointing to day after Eid al-Fitr.

Here is the problem, that is most likely exactly when the Morsi camp is expecting the situation to change.

I.E.... There will be no surprise, not even to the media hungry to cover the anticipated carnage.

I'm not sure there is anyone left who is wondering if the blood will flow in Egypt.

I'm even surer there is probably no one left who can stop it.

What does the day after it starts look like?

That is the million dollar question!

Does it last a day..... a week.... a year?

Does Egypt turn into Syria?

Does Tunisia follow soon after that?

Does the whole region fall into a crisis?

Assad's plans for Aleppo will not execute under the cover of the pending crisis in Egypt.

As a matter of fact, the ball may just swing in the other direction as Egypt spins into madness.

Here is what I would bet on.

For all the talk of the pending AQAP actions somewhere in the world at some point it time, against some target, I would keep a close eye on Egypt and the volume of violence it could produce.

AQAP may attack somewhere, but Egypt's crisis is going to happen and what it leads to could easly take the world's eye of the AQAP  all together.

And if I was them, that is exactly when I would strike!!!!

The joyful meals and celebrations of Eid al-Fitr may be the last peaceful days for most of the region and Egypt / Sisi holds the keys!!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/201387191527494149.html

HAMAS.. HAT IN HAND ...BACK TO THE PERSIAN?

As complicated as the Palestinian leadership question can be, is it possible Hamas, A Sunni organization, could go back to the Persians for support?

Remember, Hamas was not truly excommunicated from Syria / Damascus, and it wasn't told to vacate Tehran.

I mentioned before the simple fact that Hamas was called home by the Muslim Brotherhood and the majority of the Hamas leadership, not all of it, believed that move to be the right thing to do.

It's also true the events in Egypt have severely damaged Hamas' ability to count on any level of support from the MB.

Abbas's action with the US and Israel may not lead to anything of sustenance, but is anyone really convinced that is Abbas goal to begin with?

You see, as is always the case in the Middle East, perception is king and the perception right now is Abbas is trying harder that Hamas to actually achieve something for the Palestinian people, while Hamas scrambles to find a bill payer and to keep radicals inside Gaza from bringing the wrath of the Egyptian Military not to mention the IDF, down on the heads of the poor people who live in Gaza. 

Simply put, Abbas is and Fatah are helping drive a stake into the heart of Hamas and many are sitting back enjoying the show!

Enter..... the Persians!!!!

Like a classic scene right out of a Mafa movie, the Persians have their hands extended to the poor, desperate leadership of Hamas, at least part of Hamas' leadership.

And just like any Mafia deal, the price Hamas must pay offered by the Persians, with a smile, is more than Hamas can afford.

Support for Assad and the Hezbollah fighters in Syria?

Is that the price they must pay..... is that the "deal"?

That is the rumor and the rumor is a strong one.

Does anyone expect Hamas' already fractured leadership to universally agree to this?

What will the International Muslim Brotherhood say?

At what price does Hamas sign the contract?

Oh ya...... and does anyone really expect the Persians to live up to their end?

Have you ever seen how a Mafia deal ends?

With each passing day, the options and even the future of Hamas grows dimmer and dimmer!!!

Can anyone offer the Hamas leaders a better deal than what the Persians are going to demand?

Enter the Ottomans!!!

Have you ever pealed an onion?

That is the Middle East right now.

The is no core... there is no center.....there are just layers of "issues"... layers after layer...

http://www.debka.com/article/23158/Tehran-For-restored-Iranian-aid-Hamas-must-go-back-to-supporting-Bashar-Assad-

SAUDI AND SIGNS OF TROUBLE OR PRINCES ACTING BADLY?

Ok, so two Saudi Princes make the news in the past several days and for once none of them are going to jail or being kicked out of someone's country, at least not yet.

When you read these two stories, you should stop to think about the bigger picture in the Middle East and what the Royals of the GCC have feared since day one of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus!!!!

Change.... and change based on no longer being in power.

What the relationship has been between the royal family of Saudi and Prince Khalid Farhan al-Saud is not a matter of public record and that is not unusual for the Saudi family.

Is Khalid turning to the more radical side of Muslim faith by linking up with  Dr Sa-ad Rashaed Mohammad al-Fagih, or is he simply getting out in front of the social, economic imbalance "theme" the GCC so fears?

And to make things even worse, the highly controversial, in Saudi that is, Prince Talal brings back up a ignored topic in Saudi.... the loss of control of the oil market!

One this is for certain, the movement Dr al-Fagih represents will exploit the move by Prince Khalid and it's not going to make Saudi happy.

Oh, by the way, anything that upsets Saudi and the rest of the GCC leadership, is music to the ears of Iran / the Persians!!!!

How will this play inside of Saudi is one thing, but how this plays in the hands of Saudi's enemies.....well... that is another topic all together!

From the begening of the so called Arab Spring, I stated Saudi was the Brass Ring the movement would be looking for.

Establishing a Palestinian state may be the flavor of the day, but the downfall of the Royal families of the Gulf, that is the real objective for the masses moving the social / economic agenda throughout the region.

For a family that thrives by staying out of the news, these two Princes have created more than a disturbance in the force, but then again, that's what bored, rich people do!!!!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/07/30/saudi-prince-worried-that-us-shale-boom-could-cripple-opec-economy/

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/28/316063/ksa-prince-defects-from-royal-family/

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/turkey-andsaudi.html

SO... WHERE ARE HEZBOLLAH'S DEAD AND WHY HIDE THEM?

With all the talk of  the recapture or fall of Homs, take your pick, and the obvious fact that Hezbollah forces are doing most of the door to door fighting, one questions grows larger and lager with each passing day.

Where are the Hezbollah dead?

Stories have been circulating for weeks over the findings of "mass graves" filled with the fallen Hezbollah fighters.

The rumor, and it's a strong one, is Hezbollah's leadership fears the repercussions of sending the amount of killed in action home to Lebanon almost on a daily schedule.

It's also a well know fact the real casualty numbers would inspire the Rebels are bring shock to all of those who support Hezbollah's involvement.

All of this leads to another question and it's probably even more puzzling.

where are the Iranian dead?

Now almost two years ago, when Iran would lose members of their then unconfirmed "advisor force".. you know... the ones on Pilgrimage..... the bodies where sent home with no fanfare and most likely in the dead of night... no pun intended!!!

Here is a simple fact of combat.

When a well trained, highly committed and well armed force, like the fighters that have been moving into Syria from Afghanistan and Yemen,  and you top this off with them having the advantage of being a defensive position, the causality count on the other side is going to be high.

With thousands of Hezbollah fighters now in daily combat inside Syria, again the question must be asked; where are the dead?

The media is on to these Hezbollah "mass graves", but the story has not caught fire as of yet.....I emphasize....YET!!

How many Mothers and Wives are waiting back in Lebanon for word on their Sons, Husbands and Fathers?

How much longer can Hezbollah leadership keep the truth from the families that make Hezbollah a functional organization?

What price is Hezbollah paying for the actions in Syria both in dead and in support?

Aleppo!!!!

Aleppo and the pending battle that Assad's forces cannot win; will that be the breaking point.

Nothing collapses faster than a Military in full retreat.

Panic in Syria is one battle away!!! Aleppo!!!

How will Hezbollah hide the numbers then?

http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/07/23/snc-discovers-mass-graves-for-hezbollah-fighters-in-syria/