EGYPTIAN MILITARY OVER GAZA???

Well, the facts may be the first casulty of this story and in the Middle East and Politics that is usually the case, but lets look at what is being said in this article.

Does any believe for a minute the IDF would allow the Egyptian military to enter Gaza airspace without IDF approval?

So, for the sake of argument, lets assume...just assume. there is some level of truth to this seemingly outrageous allegation.

Why would the Israeli government even contemplate such an event?

Let's take a stab at that question.

It's no mystery the Sinai is a hotbed of potential unrest for Egypt.

It's also doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize who may have run back into the safety zone of Gaza as the Muslim Brotherhood was being disassembled.

And finally, it's clear as much as Hamas would like to make everyone believe they control Gaza, they simply do not; at least not at a level that keeps "others" from bedding down there.

Who would run to Gaza you might ask?

Does anyone think there is not a radical faction of the MB?

Does anyone truly believe AQ and other Islamic Radicals would not retreat from a well advertised, pending ground operation in the Sinai by the Egyptian military?

And just where would they "retreat" to?

Yep... Gaza... by tunnel of course!

Why does anyone think the Egyptian military attempted to seal off the tunnels they knew were used by these groups prior to any pending op in the Sinai?

Ok, lets move on and take a look at why Hamas would be shouting from the rooftops about Egypt.

First off, they are probably convinced the story of the Egyptian military working hand in hand with the IDF; given it has happened for years!

Now, let's insert the Fatah factor to this story.

Would Fatah love to see the military arm of Hamas take a beating at the hands of the Egyptian military?

Perhaps, but the idea of Hamas being seen as unable to control Gaza meets the needs of Fatah just as well.

It's the story of Hamas bringing pain to the people of Gaza that Fatah is looking for and over the past two weeks or so, that story has gained traction with each passing day.

So, what is missing from the "story"?

If you said, " no talk of the IDF and the Egyptian military working together", you would be right on the mark.

Why not?

Why no mention of this implied "Alliance"?

Can Hamas stand to paint Egypt as an enemy?

Can Hamas tell a story of the Egyptian military being pro Zionist?

So, what purpose does this story really provide and who does it proved it to?

Notice at the end of the article, the comment is made by Yusef, that Hamas should strive to seek "reconciliation" with Fatah and do so as soon as possible?

Who would that possibly benifit?

Did you guess Fatah?

Well, if you did and you based that on the fact that Abbas is right in the middle of trying to restart the peace talks with Israel, then you are thinking at a much higher level than most brain dead journalist.

Would the IDF allow Egypt to fly over Gaza?

Perhaps!

If Egypt is about to attempt to regain control of the Sinai, then knowing what might come after them without making the IDF get involved is a sound strategic concept.

Its obvious the "message" of flyover is being heard by Hamas and that message is, "you  better not stick your fingers into the Sinai and the actions that are about to take place there".

It's easy to see Hamas has had real bad month and it appears it's only going to get worse.

Can the Egyptian Military occupy Gaza?

An Egyptian "Peace Keeping Force" in Gaza with Israeli concurrence, wouldn't that just drive the Islamic Fundamentalist wild!!!!

Lets see what happens and remember; it's never boring in the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Hamas-Egypt-is-trying-to-restore-sovereignty-over-Gaza-320825

HAMAS.. TUNNELS AND THE SINAI... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Rumors upon rumors of Egyptian military actions "pending" in the Sinai have placed the tunnels to Gaza back in the spotlight.

Does Gaza need the tunnels to keep what standard of living exist in Gaza?

Yes..

Does Hamas have the ability to control what passes from Gaza into the Sinai?

The perception is that they can or more importantly, they are expected to!

The IDF and just about anyone else that has paid attention to this tunnel process knows exactly what takes place and it's not all about supplies for the people of Gaza.

For several years the ability for certain members on both sides of the tunnel complex to make money from "movements" has never been addressed, yet it's the money that make the whole process work.

Everyone knows the tunnels support the radical members of Hamas on other groups in Gaza and everyone knows those "radicals" move from Gaza back into the Sinai using the same tunnels.

When the Egyptian military went after the tunnel network, only certain tunnels where impacted and that didn't happen by happenstance.

What do you move and how much to you pay, on both sides, that is one set of determining factors on tunnel activity.

The bigger factor rest with, who gets paid... what family... what military commander?

Now, some would say the solution is easy; if Hamas wants the tunnels to be left alone, then Hamas needs to insure how they are utilized!

If only it were that simple.

Here is Hamas' bigger problem.

The Egyptian Military is ill prepared to deal with the low intensity conflicts taking place in the Sinai and they know it; thus the reluctances to start this now highly anticipated       " Operation" in the area.

Hamas may not control the complete tunnel process, but they can be held responsible for the impact of the tunnels, the right ones to make Gaza suffer, being closed down.

Hamas knew all too well when they hitched their wagon to the Muslim Brotherhood Horse, they risked dire results from the Egyptian Military; thus the tunnel issue.

If the Hamas gamble was based upon the ex President of Egypt, Morsi, gaining the upper hand over the Egyptian military, well........... that was a bad gamble!!!!

Will the new Egyptian government risk the bad publicity of Gaza going into crisis mode over dried up tunnel movements?

Most likely the answer is going to be yes!

Before the Egyptian military, a far more professional outfit than others in the region, can contemplate "operations" on a large scale in the Sinai, they must do what every good military understands........... control the ability for the enemy to receive help.

Does the Egyptian military know what tunnels can be open and what ones must be closed?

You bet they do and that is why some are still open.

Does the Egyptian military plan on isolating the enemy in the Sinai?

Absolutely!

The question truly becomes, how long will it take the Egyptian military to execute the operation in the Sinai and can Gaza hold on until that operation is over?

Here is the problem with developing the answer to that question.

The Egyptian military is not geared for the type of operation the Sinai events are going to call for.

That leads the Egyptian military with one real option; conduct a quick operation and declare victory!!!

That is my bet!

And that leads me to my final point.

What happens when you declare "victory" and then the enemy shows up again or worse, somewhere else?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jul-18/224194-hamas-urges-new-egyptian-rulers-to-keep-tunnels-open.ashx#axzz2ZRkVblGu

KURDS vs THE NUSRA??? A WHOLE DIFFERENT TYPE OF FIGHT!

Yesterday I was reading about the battles taking place in Ras Al-Ayn between the PYD / Kurds / and units of Nusra Front and I couldn't help but wonder..... what if a fighting force that has a percentage of female fighters beats the mighty Nusra?????

How is that for a blow to your Islamic Fundamentalist male ego????

Now, its true the Fundamentalist have been facing female fighters from the West for the duration of the War on Terrorism, but there is a marked difference.

First off, these Kurd females are Muslim by religion or they claim to be!

Secondly, they are not "rear area / non combatant ... support troops..

The female members of the Kurdish units are skilled warriors who will kill with a knife, a gun or a stick if they get half a chance!

If you've never had the privilege to see them, trust me when I tell you they can hold their own and them some!

How would you like to be the Nusra unit commander and have to radio back to your superiors that you were being defeated by a fighting force with females members?

The Arab male ego is a fragile issue and the story of this event taking place is not going over well around the campfires tonight.

Ok, here is the real story inside of this story.

Nusra and it's followers discovered well over a year ago that Kurd fighting units are far different than twenty year old boys who wearing  sandals and hang out in coffee shops in Homs or Aleppo.

Kurds were practically born to fight and raised to shoot a weapon from the time they can stand.

Nusra and it's followers need to think more than twice before they start a protracted campaign to do battle with Kurds on what the Kurds consider Kurdish land!

Having said that, the strategic tactic of pressing the Rebels between an advancing Syrian/ Iranian / Hezbollah force and the warrior ethos of the Kurds is not a lost issue with  the leadership of Iran's forces.

Owning certain points on the map for the sake of re-supply or cutting off your enemies re-supply, is not a new tactic, but doing battle with two formidable forces such as the Kurds and the hybrid Syrian forces is simply a disastrous decision.

It's a decision that could cost Nusra and it's followers dearly, but then again, the FSA and it's supporters may fully support Nusra and it's gangs running full on into the buzz saw!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=113303

HAMAS.. .A HOUSE STILL DIVIDED??? NO SURPRISE THERE!!!

Over the past few days, I've been watching to judge just how desperate a situation Hamas has become with the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Well, as is always the case in the Middle East or governance anywhere in the 21st century world for that matter, the answer is complicated!

Time and time again I've addressed the issue of the "House Divided" that is called Hamas and how  the Western world really doesn't grasp how un-unified Hamas really is.

So, when I came across the attached story, one that is spot on, I decided to stop waiting to see what Hamas post Morsi move would be and just take a stab at it.

Now, the storyline behind the ongoing conflict between Meshaal and Zahar is a study in Arab "relationships" in it' self, but Shlomi Eldar really drives home a important point in this story, although it may be one he didn't really realize.

When we look at the movement called Hamas and we do so from Western eyes, it's easy to overlook the inter conflicts that are deliberately kept from the open, outside media.

Most of us realize Hamas is a movement without a true "Mother Ship" ... .a title once held by the Muslim Brotherhood when it comes to talking of Hamas.

Where should the movement turn and who should lead the turn; well that realizes a level of tension that has made the whole movement relatively ineffective.

It takes two hands to count the number of "leaders" that are all trying to Captain the ship and it seems none of them are willing to sail in the same direction.

You can also bet the behind the scene support to this dysfunctional family is hard at work and we all know what that effort is being lead by.

In the big picture of what is taking place in the region, this dysfunctional family issue may not seem like an important issue, but trust me when I tell you that it is.

If we back off the picture and look at the big moving parts for the whole region over the past sixty days, one thing becomes clear.

The Sunni juggernaut seems to have lost a great deal of momentum.

The Western world has been second-guessing the "support" movement given the strong possibility of the more radical Sunni's taking over the movement.

Any event that takes the wind out of the sails of the Sunni ship right now just might be by design.

Is anyone really going to attempt to unify the Hamas movement?

Well, my bet is not anyone from the Western side of the world.

Finally; what happens if the Sunni movement falls apart?

Does peace break out in the region?

Don't get your hopes up and when it comes to a dysfunctional Sunni movement; be careful what you ask for!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/al-zahar-ties-hamas-iran.html

  

THE ATTACK ON LATAKIA AND HOW DOES THE TSAR RESPOND?

Well, the story goes on the 4th or 5th of July the Israeli military attacked a storage facility holding Yakhonts anti ship missiles destine for Hezbollah ownership!

Here is the million dollar question, and it's not....did it happen!!!

Why did Assad and his supporters not say a thing?

Did they not believe it was Israel that destroyed the building?

Did they really buy the story by Hezbollah that the rebels carried out the attack?

Is Assad and his followers just too reluctant to admit Israel once again successfully penetrated the so called, " formidable", air defense network.. a net work especially set up to protect Assad's home turf... Latakia?

Nobody expects the IDF to come right out and take credit for this alleged attack, but where is the, "we will attack you if you do it again speech from Assad?

You know, the one he gave the last time the IDF made him look like a fool!!!

If you will recall, the Assad government had little to say when the IDF took out their nuclear research center a few years ago.

So, is history repeating itself; For the FOURTH TIME?????

Ok, so the story goes on to say the explosions seemed, "too small" to be IDF attacks?

Really?

Does anyone really think the IDF doesn't have the ability to limit the size of the destruction and change the attack profile this time around?

In the region, most of the militaries are technically incompetent by Western standards, but unfortunately for Assad, that statement doesn't apply to the IDF!

What I find even more interesting with this story is the fact Hezbollah made a extremely lame excuse as to what happened and how!

Why?

Why are they not standing up and shouting from the roof tops on how this attack will not go unpunished?

I will tell you why and it's a message they understand all too well.

Hezbollah, like many others in the region, know the price they will pay if they do actually retaliate and that is why they are making up such asinine  stories such as attacks from other  Army installations near by.

Ok, here is the next interesting point.

Notice the standard, " former senior Israeli Security Official", statement!

If you want to quietly take credit for something, then send someone out to the media that has no real link to a current administration.... it's how the world works now days!

So, let us assume the Sunni Rebels, who are struggling to hold onto Homs and their slice of  Aleppo had no capability of striking this alleged storage facility of "red line" weapons.

Let us assume the IDF did exactly what they claimed they would do if these same weapons began to travel to the hands of Hezbollah.

Why would the footprint of the attack appear so different?

Why would this attack deliberately not be as obvious as the others?

Answer, my opinion.... the Tsar!!!!

Don't forget the Tsar gave Israel's leader a verbal, "don't do it again" speech not three months ago!!!!

And the Israeli answer was, "watch me"!!!!

This leads me to my final issue.

What does the Tsar think of this event?

Does he believe it was the IDF?

Does he know if the "red line" weapons were in that storage facility?

I can count on one hand how many people in this world have the suaveness to "dance" with Mr. Putin...

Mr Netanyahu is at the top of that dance card!

What happens next?

Does this attack become verified?

If it does, how does the Tsar react to Israel saying to him, " I told you so"?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/did-israel-bomb-latakia-last-week

BOMBING IN BIR AL-ABED... DOES IT MATTER WHO DID IT?

All day long the "who dune it" game was being played by all the talking heads in the media.

There was one group who wasn't playing this meaningless charade... Hezbollah!!

Since the day it became official, months after they really showed up, that Hezbollah was active inside Syria, everyone that knows the region predicted what was going to take place.

Today's bombing is a poor excuse for the timeless, " I told you so"!

I'll go back to my strategic comment of how the Sunni fighters will attempt to force Hezbollah to concentrate on their "home front", thus drawing their commitment and support away from actions in Syria.

So, was today's bombing an act of revenge or was it a strategic attempt to disrupt the Hezbollah base?

Yep... you got it.....it was both!!!

Now, the question some were trying to answer today centered around where the bombers Lebanese or "others/ outsiders?

Again, from the perspective of those who will seek revenge, it doesn't matter and in reality, it really doesn't matter to anyone else as well.

For the sake of time, lets get passed the "who / why" phase and get to the "so what" category!

So what?

What does it matter this bombing took place today?

Does it mean there will be more?

Silly question.

Does it indicate the decay of Lebanon!

Yep!!

Will it pull Hezbollah support from Syria?

Nope!!!!

Will Hezbollah leadership feel the heat from it's support base for dragging their hometowns into the crisis?

Yep!!!

Here is the deal; Hezbollah, as I said weeks ago, is all the way in with little chance of pulling out.

The trap of sectarian conflict has been sprung and Hezbollah took the bait all the way when they moved into Syria.

Yes, I know all the gossip is based on how Assad's forces are making headway in Homs and moving on Aleppo and yes I realize it seems to many on the outside the civil war in Syria is turning for Assad and his Masters in Iran.

Incase you forgot, let me remind you what I predicted weeks ago when Assad seem to be gaining the upper hand.

It's one thing to take territory back from an enemy!

It's an all together different story to hold it and bring it back to any level of "normal".

The support, weapons wise, from the GCC  will have a wave effect.

Just because some of the more sophisticated tools may be showing up, that doesn't mean the tide will turn back to the Sunni fighters in a matter of a few days.

Today's events involving Hezbollah are just the beginning of weeks or months of more bad news and more pressure from the home front to come home.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jul-10/223166-specter-of-strife-looms-over-lebanon-after-blast.ashx#axzz2YbF69eGx

HAMAS AND THE BROTHERHOOD.... NOW WHAT?

Well, it seems the leadership of Hamas has yet another crisis on their hands and again, it's one they knew, or should have known, was coming!

You can bet many key leaders were reluctant to run from Damascus and the Iranian support for the sake of a fledgling Muslim Brotherhood movement stumbling to the forefront in Egypt.

But, like any strong Father figure, when the MB gave Hamas the preverbal, "it's time to come home now" speech.....well.... Hamas lowered it's head... and did as they were told.

There is not a single member of Hamas' leadership that could not see the hand writing on the wall when the Egyptian Military began to limit and to some degree control the flow moving by the  tunnels into Gaza.

Ok, long story short, Hamas has lost a critical supporting pillar now that the MB in Egypt is struggling for their own survival and the GCC partners will not be as sympathetic to the Hamas plight as everyone might think.

Once again the classic, "Law of unintended consequences" has taken place; well... maybe!!!

Does anyone really believe the Egyptian Military did not contemplate the impact on Hamas that taking down the MB would create?

Oh ya... what took place this week????

Yep.... more military troops into the Sinai..

Remember what I said last week..

Both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Military, and their GCC partners, had plans incase things in Egypt decayed to the point they finally reached.

Hamas can be added to that list of "planners"...

Did Hamas anticipate what has come of the MB?

Most likely?

So, that begs the question..... what is that plan?

Lets see how long it takes to become visible.

Here is a hint........ if it involved support from GCC members......well....... I also said last week, " no plan survives contact with the enemy"!!!