EGYPT.. TURKEY .. SYRIA.. AND THE NEW "VIRUS"!!!

Well,  a great deal has happened in the past three days and just about everyone has formed an opinion in one way or another as to what may happen in Egypt.

As I said three days ago, the only thing we can really count on was and is the fact that both sides of the events in Egypt had detailed "game plans" for the events that took place.

Having said that, here are a few other undisputable facts we can bank on this  weekend.

1.  Assad, Iran and Hezbollah, once again, are more than happy to hear of turmoil near them.

Once again, the distraction of Egypt gives Assad and his supporters the cover they need to level a degree of violence on their enemies that would typically be reacted to with detailed media coverage; I.E.   the push on Homs!

Make no mistake, the concept of the Sunni dominated Muslim Brotherhood being openly attacked in Egypt is more than music to the Shia ears of the region.

It's also should come as no surprise the MB and it's followers were more than ready to blame "others" in the region for the events in Egypt.

2.  Turkey and it's Islamist based government is more than worried about the events of Egypt.

Incase anyone has forgotten, it was only two weeks ago the streets of Turkey's major cites were full of violent protester......an event that shook the Turkish's governments confidence to the core!!!

From the early days of the "Arab Spring"///// Tunisian Virus, a nickname I will not give up on, it was clear the hijacking of the youth lead, sectarian mainstream was at some point going to get their collective feet under them!

If you go back and read my post from two years ago, you will see my opinion then and by the was still is the real shakers and makers of these revolts would eventually realize they had been hoodwinked by the Islamist!

It was a painful lesion for the youth of Iran shortly after their revolution over 30 yrs ago and it's a lesson the people of Egypt have taken to heart.

You see, the MB has always known they had a narrow window of opportunity to shape the Egyptian government in a way that would leave them in power for years to come.

The MB knew from the fist days of the revolution two years ago, they could deceive the Egyptian people, people who were scared of what was taken place in their country, and that allowed the MB to slip into power.

It's the reason the MB started a full court press to change the Egyptian military and the laws of the land before the Egyptian people got their preverbal act together.

So now, the Islamic government of Turkey watches as a new even more deadly version of the Tunisian Virus overtakes Egypt; a version of the "Virus" that, this time, not even the well discussed Islamic leaders can hide from.

Is Turkey worried about what is taking place in Egypt?

Oh... more than you can possibly imagine!!

Are the Shia joyful over the events engulfing the Muslim Brotherhood?

Silly question.

So, what is going to happen in Egypt?

More violence?

Yes!!

More economic distress?

yes!!

If you want to gauge how bad things might get for Egypt, just watch the Turkish government as it chews it's fingernails to stubs.

EGYPT

CRISIS IN EGYPT  THIS ONE IS  DIFFERENT.

Ok, I've been "off the net" for two weeks and we all know a great deal has taken place in that time period. 

As much as I wanted to bang out a " Snapshot", something I've not done for over three months, I'm more convinced I need to do a down and dirty on Egypt to get my thoughts down before tomorrow's deadline!

Ok, lets get to it and let's keep this simple.

Over the past two years my opinion  of Mr. Morsi have been very, very obvious!

The same goes for the Muslim Brotherhood!

So, without going into why  Egypt has jumped back to the forefront of Middle Eastern news, let's get right down to analysis of the possible repercussions.

If there is on thing Mr. Morsi has never understood, it's how a true Democracy works and his actions today simply verify my statement.

What this man and his party, and make no mistake the MB is his party, simply don't comprehend is the responsibility of coming out the victor in a democratically held election.

Somehow Mr Morsi truly believes that just because he was duly elected, by a population that was desperate at the time, that doesn't mean you can dictate to your society what they can and cannot do for the next four years!

He and his followers lack of understanding of how a Democracy works is never more evident than when you hear the words, " if the people don't like what is going on, wait till the next election and vote him out"!!!

That's not how a Democracy works and any of us who have grown up in one knows that all too well.

Being the "Victor" in NOT a one time ticket to being a four year Dictator!

But then again, I am wasting my breath on this subject with the likes of the MB and its Puppet Morsi!

Ok, lets get away from the new Dictator of Egypt for a second and lets focus on why he is in far more trouble than many realize.

I have mentioned on numerous occasions the animosity between the Egyptian Military and the MB to include Mr. Morsi.

Early last year his plans to replace many key members of the Egyptian Military Leadership with more sympathetic, younger, followers fell short and honestly, that was the beginning of the end and he knew it!

It's the age old Golden Rule of Political Assassination ..... NEVER.....MISS!!

Everyone who pays attention to the region has been watching the every increasing hostel environment between the Egyptian Military and the MB / Mr. Morsi and none of us would have placed a bet on this event not taking place at some point in time.

Was the Egyptian Military simply "buying time"?

Absolutely!

Does that mean it has a detailed plan ready to launch?

You can bank on it.

So, is the Egyptian Military more prepared for this crisis than the MB and Mr Morsi?

Silly question!

Now, at the risk of sounding over optimistic, lets look at the issue that many talked about today and few truly comprehend.

How divided is the Egyptian population.....really?

Well, the worse possible answer is probably the true answer... about 50...50....

Will the MB simply fold tent and walk away?

Not likely!

Many "Talking Heads" on the media circus shows today have talked about the dangers this round of revolts could lead to, but few have addressed the real issue.

Here is my concern and I'm betting I am right on target.

Does anyone out there truly believe the MB has not anticipated a move by the Egyptian Military at some point in the future?

Of course they have and that is where the problem begins.

The MB has survived in Egypt's hostile political environment for over eighty years and there is a reason for that.

They are the masterful at reading and anticipating what is out in front of them!

It's the reason they were ready to take control when the revolution came to an end!

Has the MB made "inroads" with members of the Military.... the "youth"... who are often abused by their senior Officers?

Are you getting the picture yet?

Generals are only as powerful as the troops that follow them just as Dictators are only has powerful as the Generals that follow them!

Complex structure are typically most vulnerable at the lowest level; chains ....weakest link....so on and so on..... you get the picture!!!

If there is a concept the MB understands, it's the one stated above!

When Assad set out to murder his own population, he knew full well the lower level troops and even some of the mid level leaders may not follow.

It's this "theory" the MB is banking on!!!!

Honestly, it's the only chance they have!!

The youth of the MB most likely spent the past few days communicating with as much of the lower levels of the Egyptian Military as they possibly could.

Again..... the 21st century phenomenon called Social Media plays large in the internal conflicts of governance.

So, what is going to take place tomorrow?

One thing is for sure.

The Egyptian Military has and has had a plan and the MB knows this and has known this all this time.

Let, me end this by making my most basic statement.

Both sides of what is going to take place in Egypt on Wednesday have known from day one what might be coming  and both sides have planned for such an event.

Oh ya.... there is another "Golden Rule" I want to mention tonight for it fits perfectly!

No plan survives contact with the enemy!!!!

Let's see what happens in the next 24hrs.

ASSAD USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ANNOUNCED.. FINALLY!!!

Well, I was going to head back to the topic of Turkey, but the announcement on Assad's use of chemical weapons changed all of that!

Ok, first things first!

Why now?

That is the question everyone is going to ask, well, the ones that care!

Why did the US break this announcement now?

Now, some are going to say, " its a distraction for the NSA scandal or the IRS scandal"!

We all recognize governments often use "distractions" when they feel they are in turbulent waters with their own citizenship, but I'm not convinced that is the issue this time around.

Let me put it this way; does anyone think this could have anything to do with the pending attack on Aleppo and the results that could have for the Sunni Rebels?

Is Assad gaining the upper hand in his civil war about him or is the whole Syrian conflict about the region and the future of who runs it?

I know my opinion!

If you were a Sunni Rebel member and you were digging in to fight in Aleppo, how much would your attitude change if someone announced the US had declared Assad had officially crossed the Red Line?

What level of "hope" might you gain back?

Ok, it's obvious this "announcement" is far from a un-timed, uncoordinated scientifically  backed "discovery"!

Lets drive past the issue of why the announcement was made and get to what I consider the more important question.

What next?

Here is an important rule of governments making international impacting "announcements", the other side gets a chance to react!

Anticipating those possible reactions is part of the detailed work of government planning.

If we assume the US deliberated in great detail over taking this dramatic step, and it is a dramatic one, then what possible reactions did it create Courses of Action / COA's / for?

We could play, "what if" for hours on this topic, so let's stick to the "Who" and avoid the "What" for a day or two.

Here is my list of "who" is going to have something to  say and then have something to react with.

Assad:

Words.... and more words.. as he stands by for his Master's to give him his next set of instructions.

The Persians:

Words... as they stand by and wait for "guidance" from their "Big Brother"!!

Hezbollah:

Words... and the extreme worry they have been sold down the river by the Persians.

The Tsar: 

If we assume the US has talked to the Russian about this announcement prior to making it, then we have to assume they ether agreed or disagreed.

If they disagreed, what will be the reaction?

If they agreed, what will the Tsar's message to the Persians be?

Bottom line; understanding this announcement is going to have implications for the battle of Aleppo is a given.

The saga of Syria and in reality the Sunni / Shia Civil War just took a turn.

What direction and with what implications, we will have to see.

A blinding flash of the obvious just took place, but then again, timing is always the key in international politics.

You can bet on one thing.

Mr Egodan is more than happy to see this dramatic event take place just a day or two before he may have to drop the hammer on his own people.

Everyone loves a distraction at the right point in time!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22899289

THE PENDING BATTLE FOR ALEPPO..  A TRAP NEEDS A TRAP  !

So, what has changed for Assad?

Why have his forces been successful in a conflict they have been losing for two years?

Lets list the major reasons and then dive into why Aleppo may bring this short wining streak to a dramatic end.

I've mentioned this several time in the past few months, but the input of Hezbollah forces has had a significant impact on Assad's ability to go on the offence.

The other danger is the amount of experience Hezbollah is gaining from this operation as well....something the IDF is not overlooking.

Open support from Iran and Russia, and I don't mean verbal!

The disunity of the Syrian resistance has proven to be more than harmful to their cause.

The apparent change of heart by Western supporters, and event that is still taking place ever sense the comment about Support to AQ...... note in history books... STUPID on the Sunni's part...

Along with this rift in the Western unity to support or not support the anti Assad forces is the ever growing fear of civil war in Lebanon.

All of the above issues are vital to the shift of momentum in Syria, but one other issue has to be addressed.

If you watched how the city of Qusayr was attacked, you will notice a dramatic change in tactics for Assad's forces.

Up until now, even when artillery and air strikes were utilized, there remained some consideration for " collateral damage".

That consideration is gone!

Syrian actions now are much more to the liking of the Persian Masters, total, kinetic warfare!

Add to that the predictable, yet tragic mistake by the Sunni Rebels to truly believe they could step out into the open and fight a truly kinetic fight with Assad's forces.

This shift in both of their tactics spelled disaster for the Sunni forces.

So, when you put all of these issues into one big bowl, you come up with a recipe for defeat for the Sunni Rebels, at least for now!

Now, if things weren't going bad enough for the Sunni Rebels, now the Turkish support process could be in real trouble.

Egodan's actions have Turkey more than distracted.

If all of this is the case, then is it any wonder the Persians and their hand puppet Assad is tempted to go for the jugular?

Aleppo!!!! Is that really the key to victory for Assad?

Simply put, I believe the pending assault on Aleppo is yet another trap and Assad and his Persian Masters are falling right into it!

Look at the map of Syria.

How far is it from Qusayr to Aleppo?

What has be bypassed?

Homs!!!!

Now, many times in military history Commanders have made the conscious decision to "bypass" a stronghold in order to reach deep into their enemies rear; thus going for a killing blow!

I believe this is the theory Assad's handlers are taking.

Is Homs and the area around Homs so secure for the Syrian forces that they can afford to drive right passed them and set up a siege of Aleppo?

Are the sure and if so why?

Did Hezbollah Scouts give them the " all is clear"?

Scotts only see what the enemy is foolish enough to let them see!!!!

Did they fight their way to Aleppo?

If not, why not???  ( I bet someone is asking the question.)

Ok, let me wrap this up and get back to Turkey on Thursday's post.

In my opinion, the trap for the Sunni Rebels was the combined effort to take Damascus.

Assad's forces let them concentrate their efforts and forces, build their confidence with a few minor victories near the city and then they  close, they sprung the trap!!!

The Persians sent in Hezbollah and at the same time the switch to total kenotic combat was executed on the Sunni Rebel's rear.... Qusayr!

The battlefield results were all but a given.

But now!!!!

Now, in my opinion, the Sunni trap may very well be set.

Aleppo!!

Aleppo is NOT Qusayr!!!

Assad's forces and Hezbollah must move far north.. far away from supporting units.

They must bypass Homs and what ever forces they think ran back into Lebanon or Turkey.

When Assad's forces feel they are ready to move on Aleppo, the Sunni trap may spring!

The attack on Damascus from the South!!

The Attack from the area around Homs!

And finally, the support of a few "others" .... GCC and Europe, namely in the form of key weapon systems with perhaps even a few "experts" from the GCC!!!

What could make this possible Sunni Rebel counter trap execute with devastating results?

Concentrated effort to kill Hezbollah units!!!

In the history of close order battle, if the elite units are seen as failing, the panic of the common fighters, in this case Assad's forces, will crumble!!

If the Sunni Rebels hand the Hezbollah fighters devastating losses in and around Aleppo or Homs or the "Rear Guard" Hezbollah has most likely left in or near Damascus or even better yet.... in Lebanon.... then Assad's forces may be in far more trouble than he ever dreamed.

Ok!

Back to Turkey, for that issue is about to boil and the battle of Aleppo is probably a few days away yet, especially if Assad or his Persian Master's smell a trap!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/06/2013612144125191128.html

ERDOGAN DIVING INTO THE ABYSS???

As little as two days ago, most of the "talking heads" were sticking to their predictions Turkey would weather this protest storm and Egodan's administration was in no real danger of collapse.

Well, that was two days ago and I have to tell you, many of those talking heads have begun to go silent or they are quickly adding the Turkish chapter to their new book on the Middle East... ( Insert stab here!!!).

So, what has changed in the past two days?

Easy answer, Egodan has successfully taken exactly the wrong move in dealing with the Terrorist... Trouble Makers...ect..ect.. he just keeps adding categories to the list of names.

Today's move into Taksim Square was all but predictable given the mindset of Turkey's leader.

What was also predictable today was the controlled media, something Egodan has accomplished in the past ten years, went into full swing painting the government as just trying to protect Turkey's image!

I must admit, I loved how the government offered to "meet with the protesters"!

Meeting them with gas and clubs...well... I guess that's one definition of "meeting"!

An "Olive Branch".. to beat the protesters with!!!

So, is Turkey on the road to a actual civil crisis?

This weekend will tell the story.

When Egodan sends his "supporters" to the streets and the Soccer Club hooligans come out to meet them, that will start the next phase in this crisis and you can bet Egodan will do everything in his power to stoke the flames; although he won't realize he's doing it!

Oh, by the way, play close attention to the comments, or the lack there of, from the Turkish military.

That will be yet another indicator as to what direction is heading.

All of this may not take place to this weekend and that gives me time to comment on the other vital story in the region.

Assad's assault on Eleppo appears to have begun and it will not go as planned.

I will switch over to this topic before going back to Turkey and that will happen by Friday night.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/world/europe/disputed-square-in-istanbul-turkey.html?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065&_r=0

TURKEY AND ERDOGA'S. THE CRISIS DEEPENS!

The Middle East is simply full of events worthy of further conversation, but no issue in the near future has more propensity for danger than the one know growing in Turkey!

From the very first day of the current crisis in Turkey, many regional observers came to the same conclusion; if Egodan ( remember... my nickname for him) overreacts, the violence in Turkey could take on a whole new level.

One particular issue was referenced more than just about any other and that had to do with Egodan's supporters.

It was and has been a dire warning that he seems to, as predicted by some of us, completely ignored.

" If he calls for his 'supporters' to turn to the streets, there could trouble on a national scale"!!!

Well, apparently, that is exactly what he is calling for and that in it's self is simply unbelievable.

Now, I and many of those like me should have expected this egomaniac to do exactly what we all warned he must avoid.

But, now that he has crossed what many perceive to be the real Red Line for Turkey, it may be time to think ahead to what course of action might take place when his  supporters take to the streets.

Of all the issues we could review on this topic, perhaps none is as important as the one dealing with the Soccer Clubs!

If you know anything about these movements in Turkey, then you know what the odds are of the streets of Ankara and Istanbul becoming extremely violent.

These groups are skilled in the art of confronting the Police and you will see them in full swing if this pro Egodan event takes place; that is if Egodan doesn't have their leadership rounded up all this coming week... I bet it's already underway!!!

That leads to the next question, one that I have my own opinion on, and that is the issue of the Turkish Military!

Who has done more damage to the Turkish military in the past ten years than anyone in Turkey's modern history?

Yep!!! Egodan!!!

How bad can things become when these groups meet on the streets of Ankara and Istanbul?

My hunch is over the course of the next few days, we will start to see the warning signs.

One thing is a given!

No matter how bad it gets, Assad and his Persian Masters will bask in the pending crisis.

The good new is, if there is going to be any "good news", there is still time for someone to knock some sense into Egodan!!!

I know... The odds of that happening are slim to none!!

By late this week, Turkey could be the major news story and maybe, just maybe, the next victim of Tunisian Virus!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2013/06/20136972552978418.html

ERDOGAN " EGODAN" ... FULL SPEED AHEAD.. JUST LIKE I THOUGHT!!

Two nights ago I commented Egodan had a better than 50/ 50 chance of completely botching the act of de-escalation.

Well, I think I will move those odds to 90/10 now!

As we witnessed today, the talk of "outsiders" is back in his vocabulary and that posses the question!

Is there any ounce of truth to what he is saying?

I would be the first to admit he has his share of "outside" enemies, both ones he knows of and one's he may only speculate over.

Would Assad and his Persian Masters love to see Turkey destabilized?

Most likely the answer is yes to some degree.

As has been the case since the start of the conflict in Syria, Assad welcomes anything that takes the attention off of his plight.

As for the Persians; with elections less than two weeks away and the growing fear of civil unrest, the concept of the world watching the streets of Istanbul burning while the Iranian Government Thugs beat their people into voting the way they are expected to, well, that would be  a welcomed outcome from Tehran's view.

Witnessing a Muslim Brotherhood supporting government like Egodan's slipping a few notches would most likely bring a few smiles to the faces of the GCC leadership.

With all of this said, does that equate into any of them actually being  responsible for the troubles in Turkey?

Probably not!

That honor goes strictly to Egodan!

Here is the problem or should I say, here are the two problems.

Perception!

That dirty little word I always seem to come back to when talking about the Middle East.

Paranoia!

So, mix perception with paranoia and you have the makings a Turkish meltdown.

Egodan's perception that his "enemies" are drumming up this revolt for the sake of " keeping Turkey from achieving their place in the world", can easily lead to his government taking actions that ignite the real fires.

The ability of those around him, those few he actually trust, to keep his level of paranoia from over fueling his "Perceptions" is almost assuredly limited.

So, I go back to my point about the percentages of failure.

A level headed leader with strong listening skills could find a way clear of this event, but then again, if Turkey had such a leader, they would be in the pending crisis to start.

Finally:

Egodan has one thing in common with his old friend Assad.

He is praying for a distraction and perhaps a big one!

Lebanon and it's pending crisis; that is probably high on Egodan's wish list right about now.

without a " distraction" closer and closer Egodan will head to the edge!!!

Funny.... now days... .so many leaders in the world always seem to be looking for a "distraction".

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=110722