IRAN'S VERSION OF A GREAT QUOTE..... CHOOSE WISELY!!!

Is fairly obvious by now that Israel has a different definition crossing "a redline" than it's allies.

In the past 24 hours in the next few days the question has been asked several times in the last two years will be asked again.

What extent is Iran willing to go in order to save your side regime?

Supplying weapons to Hezbollah, weapons that the Israelis have already clearly stated they would not tolerate being given to them, was an act for the purpose of achieving what?

Two years now I have talked about the possibility of Iran or Assad or both, forcing Israel into taking actions that could label them as the "aggressor"!

It is also obvious in the past 24 hours a second critical question needs to be answered.

What will Iran and Assad do if Israel actually enforces its "redline" doctrine?

Simply put, if Israel has called Iran's bluff, brilliantly I might add by not conducting operations on Lebanese soil, what is Iran going to do?

Messages this, "the ball is back in your court.......... Iran........ what will you do............ what price are you willing to pay?

To have said for the last two years, the reluctance be involved in a regional war is only trumped a nation is backed into a corner.

Iran and Hezbollah and Assad have been placed in such a corner.

Escalation!

If that is the option that Iran or Assad or Hezbollah chooses, and they should realize that the Israelis do whatever it takes to protect their nation.

Where the  bombing raids into Syria dangerous escalation?

Obviously the answer is yes.

Are the Iranians and Hezbollah prepared to take it to the next level?

Next day or so may give us our answer, but I can assure you is the most important decision coming out of Tehran and Damascus for the foreseeable future.

Yes, these are very dangerous times and it could very well be that the next nation back away from their "redline" doctrine be the Iranians.

There's a great quote from the movie 300 that applies in the situation more than many understand expiration point

"Choose your next words carefully Leonidas, they may be your last as king".

CASTLE ALAWITE!!

                                                                                                                        

Ok, the last two weeks have seen a noticeable change in the Syrian government's achievements against the Rebels/ Freedom fighters / or whatever else you chose to call them!!!

At the tactical level, it's easy to understand this shift given the obvious increased commitment by Hezbollah and Iran.

Here is the fundamental questions everyone should be asking.

Will it work?

Will Assad and his "friends" turn the tide on the Civil War in Syria?

My answer is no!!

History is chalked full of "counter attacks" that ether turn the tide of a conflict or indicate the last great gasp before defeat.

In Assad's case, it's a mixture of both.

Most "experts" this week have commented on Assad's counter offensive aimed at Rebel strongholds and how these actions are designed to limit the flow of supplies to the Rebel groups.

Well, I can buy part of that theory and I totally understand Assad wishing that is exactly how the rest of the world would perceive his actions, but I'm not convinced.

My hunch is Assad is clearing the area agasent to his fallback Kingdom.... Tartus and Latakia ..... "Castle Alawite"!!!

It's possible the commitment of  Iran's Strategic Reserve, " Hezbollah" may produce some temporary success, but Hezbollah has problems of it's own and the idea of them depleting their war stock for months on end, along with Iran's, is simply not sound logic on Tehran's part.

Nope... my bet is Assad is building his escape path to "Castle Alawite" or at least that is what his most loyal followers are praying for.

Here is the problem for his followers..... there is only so much room available inside of Castle Alawite and you better be from the right "clan" if you want a door pass!!!

Yes.... Assad has bought himself some time, but he is not going to turn the tide of the Civil War... .the time for that to happen is long passed.

Collapsing back into Castle Alawite with a few chosen followers.... to include Hezbollah and Iranian operatives is going to be the end state... or he is going to wake up Dead... still a possibility if the Tsar can work a deal or two along the line.

Can you imagine the bargaining position the Tsar is in right now?

Can you see the reaction if he was to say to the rest of the Word, "Ok... I'll pull out and tell the Iranians it's time to settle for Syria as a modern day version of Lebanon in the 80s... Mad Maxville, but here is what I want in return"!!!!

Mad Maxville... .a place where Hezbollah can still operate from and serve the Master of Tehran if needed.

Assad better be ready to move into Castle Alawite faster than he thinks.... for the Tsar just may have other ideas for his future.

Last but not least........ If Assad comes to the conclusion, once he moves into his Castle, that nobody gets a clean shot at ruling what is left of Syria; then he is capable of just about anything... and we all know what that means.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-03/215875-syria-widens-campaign-to-uproot-rebels.ashx#axzz2SBCdnuZl

NASRALLAH GIVES HIS SPEECH, BUT WHAT DID IT MEAN?

Ok, yesterday I commented on Nasrallah giving a speech soon for two reasons.

1. To try to explain to his support base why Hezbollah was fighting in Syria... Hint his answer was really...really weak!!!

2.  He would give a hint as to where Hezbollah was heading with the Syrian conflict.

Now that the "speech" is over, a few things jumped out at me.

It's clear Nasrallah was addressing more than just his base.

His comments and statements were often directed towards his opponents fighting in Syria.

If you really breakdown his speech, it's clear over half of his comments were addressed to the rebels in Syria.

Now, to some degree he did address the West to include Israel, but threats to the West and Israel were clearly not the centerpiece of this event.

The next item that caught me by surprise was Narallah's repeated reference to "friends" not allowing the Syrian Government to fall; side not... notice he did not mention Assad by name?

He even went as far as stating these "friends" have assured him they would not allow the fall of the current government in Syria.

Strange!!

Why the emphasis on this point?

I think I know why!!

As I said, although he didn't spend a great deal of time threatening the West or Israel, this implied statement of so called "fact" that Syria's "friends" would not allow it to fall was a clear indirect / implied threat.

If you read between the lines, the statement is this, " if the West openly intervenes, then Iran will commit to the fight"!!

I know he mentioned Russia, but not even the blowhard Nasrallah could possibly think for a minute the Tsar would commit combat forces to Syria?

No oil / no fuel from Syrian land... no commitment by the Tsar... Oil / fuel rules his thought process 24/7/365.

Ok, having made the comment about the Russians, did Nasrallah just put the rest of the West on notice that Iran is willing to go the distance for Syria?

Most likely, and that makes the US / Western response to the WMD issue about as dangerous as it can get.

The third issue that caught my attention with Nasrallah's speech was  the absolute egocentric way he addressed Lebanon's response to Lebanese citizens being in danger along the Syrian border!!

His point was simple, the Lebanese government is not capable of defending the Lebanese people and only Hezbollah can take on this great challenge.

Let there be no doubt that Nasrallah truly believes he controls Lebanon!!!!

Last night, I commented Nasrallah had perhaps an opportunity to pull Hezbollah out of the cycle of danger they had allowed Iran to force them into.

It is clear today, Nasrallah has no intention of backing up!!!!

Like the little Bully who thinks his 6-5 / 300 lb friend is standing behind him //// Iran///// Nasrallah just kicked sand into the world's face....

Oh by the way, just who is Nasrallah.... and what is Hezbollah really/?????

Let me make a comparison and see if your perspective changes.

Can you imagine in the US / Britain / China / France / Germany / Russia... an armed group based upon a religious doctrine living outside the control of the national government... a militia / armed to the teeth / that dictates to the rest of the world's leaders what the country they are living in is going to do and not do?

It's like the KKK dictating to DC what the US will and will not do and speaking for the US on international affairs?

It's insane and that is exactly how the rest of the world needs to view Hezbollah!!!

Ok, here is the bottom line.

Nesrallah, for all intensive purposes, drew his redline today..

"Do not intervene in Syria or Syria's "friends" will defeat you"!!!

Here is the problem with "redlines"....  when someone steps across, they do so knowing they are ready to take on the consequences...

Is Hezbollah ready for that???? Really???

How deep is the whole Nesrallah lives in??

If I was him I would dig a much deeper hole or be ready to move that "redline"...

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-01/215667-nasrallah-hints-assads-allies-could-intervene.ashx#axzz2RzpBgAiQ

HIZBALLAH LOSES IN SYRIA.... MORE THAN JUST MEMBERS!!!

Sticking with the issue of Hizbollah's challenges again today for one simple reason; it's the most important issue potentially for the whole region.

For several weeks the rumors of "troubles" inside the Hizbollah camp have been circulating  and this trend now holds true going into the month of May.

This report by DEBKA, if true, is one of the more dramatic events pertaining to Hizbollah's future.

The rumor of a pending speech by Nasrallah within the next few days just took on a whole new level of urgency, if this DEBKA story is true. 

Nasrallah has every intention of explaining to the Hizbollah base support why their fighters are engaged in Syria.

I am one of those who truly believe the UAV incident last week with Israel was nothing more than an attempt by Nasrallah to show the "base" he still has his eye on the Israel.

Can you imagine having to walk into the room, as he is preparing his speech, and inform him one of his top leaders has been killed in Syria along with several members of one of the organization's most revered units?

Try adding that explanation to the speech!!

Now, I made the comment a few months ago the addition of Hizbollah " regulars" would dramatically change the Battlefield for the Syrian Rebels and the last two weeks of fighting seems to have proven me right.

But, as is the case with most extended conflicts, the "shock" of a new leverage has the tendency to level off over time and that could be exactly what happened to this elite unit.

In simple terms, their enemy adapted to their tactics and then executed a counter strike.

So, what does this all mean?

If we accept the fact that Hizbollah is in more trouble now than at any point in their history, what does it mean?

If ever there was a prime example of " The Law of Unintended Consequences", the near future of Hizbollah's actions may become a textbook case.

Nasrallah's pending speech to his "Base" may just be for wider audience than he had initially hoped for.

Watch for it.... It's going to be vital to the near future of the region!!

If, and I say if, but if Narallah has a crack in his armor... if he is looking for an escape route... he just may hint to it in this next speech.

http://www.debka.com/article/22936/Hizballah-loses-two-high-officers-in-major-defeat-at-al-Qusayr-near-Homs

IRAN'S MESSAGE.. "DAMNED IF YOU DO AND DAMNED IF YOU DON'T"

Ahmadinejad's "statement" today was more than just a reminder of Iran's commitment to Assad; it was a veiled threat.

With all the talk of what should the West do about the alleged WMD utilization in Syria, this timely statement from Iran was directed to those making decisions.

What's interesting is the concept of Iranian leadership possibly assuming those Western decision makers had forgotten such a vital point.

In fact, I'm confident Iran did not assume this loss of reality, but simply believed a well timed statement might reinforce a final vote of indecisiveness.

Sometimes, the best moment in time to influence a decision is just before you believe that decision is about to be made.

Timing!!!! A critical tool in the art of international politics.

I'm not going to enter the endless debate of "what should the West do and what are the repercussions if they do or don't do 'something'?

Here is a simple and in my opinion undeniable fact.

Syria and the status of Assad / the Shia government / is vital to Iran.

The fall of Assad and his government is a classic example of " A clear and Present Danger" to the Iranian government.

Of all the issues that must be weighted before the West responds to the possible, probable. use of WMDs in Syria, this Clear and Present Danger fact absolutely carries the greatest amount of value.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't!!!

The issue becomes, you must chose one version of "damned"!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Apr-28/215340-syria-rebel-victory-would-threaten-region-iran.ashx#axzz2Ro1usb6C

HEZBOLLAH .. HOUSE DIVIDED.. THE PRESSURE GROWS!!

I want to stay on the theme of Hezbollah becoming a House Divided tonight, but I will end with a follow on comment dealing with Iraq.

You know, there is an old saying, one I've used on many occasions, "where there is smoke, there is fire"!!!!

If rumors of "troubles" inside of Hezbollah took the shape of smoke, then the smoke gets thicker with each passing day.

Hezbollah leadership is trying, feebly in my opinion, to explain away their losses in areas other than Shia villages near the Lebanese border with Syria.

As one article I read today stated; as Israeli jets fly over Lebanon, Hezbollah fighters are dying in Syria for Assad and their Persian Master.

Hezbollah's leadership cannot "wish" this problem away and their inability to provide plausible explanations to their base is becoming  more and more worrisome not only to them, but to the Puppet Masters back in Tehran.

To reiterate.... Hezbollah has a dangerous problem and they know it!!

Can they become a "House Divided"???

Just look at the Palestinian movement / Hamas / Fatah and you will have your answer.

Ok, Iraq:

Last night I made an argument for Iran pulling the strings on the violence in Iraq and why they would support such an event.

For the sake of point / counterpoint / let me ask an even more dangerous question.

What if... I just love "What if" questions... but what if... Iran had nothing to do with the rapidly escalating events in Iraq?

What if the events in Iraq were  the next phase of the uncontrolled, uncoordinated, relentless Sunni revolt in the region?

What if the Arab Spring "Virus" .... yes I still refer to it as such, but I must admit, I am growing more and more fond of the "White Walkers" analogy, was the cause of the events in Iraq?

What would Iran think if they had just committed their last true proxy force, Hezbollah, to the battlefield in Syria and the counter was the Sunni assault initiated in Iraq?

Has Iran committed a fatal error in their strategic response to the Arab Spring?

If you can't see the logic in this last sentence, then you need to increase you understanding of what is taking place in the region.

Last night I talked of Iran possibly starting a backfire to prevent larger events such as Sunni success in Syria from taking place.

Could it be the fire in Iraq is the counter-strike set by the Sunni and the GCC???

Interesting to say the least:)

IRAN'S PLANS FOR IRAQ.. ANOTHER SUNNI DISTRACTION?

In the past, I have mentioned the concept of preempting a larger event by starting a smaller one; much like the concept of a backfire to prevent a larger forest fire... the analogy I've used in the past!

Yesterday, I talked to the issue of Iran opening a second front on the Syrian rebels by employing Hezbollah and how much of a gamble that might to Iran's overall status in the region.

So, when the events of today took place in Iraq, I couldn't help but contemplate, again, why would Iran allow such an event to take place?

Now, the assumption here is the concept  that Iran has some level of influence over the Iraq government and as such, they had some level of input to the attack on the Sunni protestors.

Do I truly believe Iran has the ability to influence such an event in Iraq?

Yes.... I do!!!

The Sunni protest / demonstrations / have been increasing since December of last year and I would have a very hard time accepting the fact Iran had no say so on  how the Iraq government should deal with these events.

It's my opinion the Iranian leadership influenced the "plan" Iraq came up with to deal with the Sunni threats, but what the Iranian "goal" was ...........well.......that is where my theory gets interesting.

Let, me get straight to the point.

It is my belief Iran has calculated a "backfire"  to preempt any Sunni support from Iraq moving into Syria.

I Believe Iran anticipated the potential game changer Hezbollah might create in Syria and that would most likely draw additional Sunni support from Iraq into Syria.

The best way to prevent this would be to draw Iraqi Sunni unit's into a controlled event on Iraqi land.

Does this sound far fetched?

Let me ask a question in order to answer a question?

Just how paranoid has Iran become?

To what level is Iran willing to go in order to salvage their grip on Syria?

More importantly..... what does Iran have to lose by preempting events in Iraq they know are going to happen in the near future?

Why wait?

If we accept my theory on events in Iraq, then the next important question becomes; what's next for Iraq?

Forrest Fire Fighters will tell you there is always a risk with setting " backfires"!!!

What if the "backfire in Iraq.....backfires????

History is full of examples of plans hatched in desperation that failed and sometimes even failed in disastrous fashion!!

Is that what is going to take place in Iraq?