DID ASSAD  AND IRAN JUST OPEN A SECOND FRONT?

A month ago or so, some of us asked the question, would Tehran risk utilizing Hezbollah's limited resources to open a second front on the Syrian Rebels?

The events of the past two weeks and especially the past few days, may have provided us with our answer.

Al-Qusair appears to be the Hezbollah priority of effort and at the tactical level that constitutes a "second front" for the Sunni fighters in Syria.

Drawing resources away from what Assad and Tehran truly believed was the concentrated effort to take Damascus that was and is now the objective.

The threat of drawing Lebanon into the conflict are no longer just words, but most likely a actual, strategic decision being considered.

Here is the problem with that concept; it will not be decided by the Lame Duck Government sitting inside of Turkey.

The decision will most likely be made by al-Nusra, much to the anguish of the so called Syrian Provisional government or whatever they call themselves.

What is even more dangerous is the fact that Lebanon has a limited ability to prevent this from happening.

Salafist Sheikh Ahmad AssirSyria

Lebanon

The odds are better than 50. 50 they will.

As important as this issue is to the overall status of the region, it is even more worrisome that Iran has already contemplated this play.

Prior to placing Hezbollah nearly at the forefront to turn the tide of battle, Tehran had to weigh the possible impacts of such an open engagement with it's number one proxy fighter.

This brings about the next important question.

What next?

What does Iran expect from the open placement of Hezbollah?

One thing is for sure; if this is Iran's version of "Brinkmanship" I pray they are willing to limit the extent of the action that may come.

The road to war may be about to get much wider!!! 

HEZBOLLAH'S ACTIONS IN SYRIA... THE "WHITE WALKERS" ARE COMING!!

In the past, I have addressed the issue of why Hezbollah can and cannot afford to be involved in the Syrian Civil War, but now the issue of "involvement is nearly a mute point!

Lets review several key issues on the topic, before addressing what the next step now seems to be.

1.  Hezbollah has struggled with the concept of risking their response capabilities, in regards to Israel, by being drawn into the Syrian conflict.

2.  Hezbollah has created an internal rift over the issue of members being killed in a cause that does not involve Israel.

3.  Hezbollah fears the repercussions of a full blown sectarian war between the Sunni and Shia.

4.  Hezbollah fears the potential loss of control in Lebanon by being over tasked with supporting Assad and Tehran.

5.  Hezbollah is desperate to avoid a open conflict that would witness Hamas members openly fighting Hezbollah members.

6.  Hezbollah understands the "perception" the Shia of Lebanon will adopt if Hezbollah is seen as reluctant or ineffective at "defending" the Shia towns along the Syrian border.

So, what do these six issues really mean to Hezbollah and the rest of the region?

It's simple........... Hezbollah must fight or they must walk away from Assad and Tehran!!!!

Their real predicament is.... they can't survive ether event.

The loss of a combat capable Hezbollah is a blow to Iran and perhaps a fatal blow!

Like the "White Walkers" of Game of Thrones... The Sunni are coming and the Iranian version of the 

"Nights Watch" /// Hezbollah /// have little chance of succeeding.

What options would Iran have left???

That is the real....real.... danger!!

IS HEZBOLLAH BECOMING A "HOUSE DIVIDED"???

I have addressed this issue in the past, but today article brings light back to the very important subject; is Hezbollah suffering from the events in Syria?

Last week we read of parents questioning Hezbollah leadership over the deaths of family members in Syria; a land they are not from.

I have long be of the opinion that Iran's pushing Hezbollah into  action in Syria was an action they knew might come with a price.

Lets revisit an issue that cannot be overlooked.

Hezbollah is less confident about their collective future in Lebanon than at anytime in their past.

The distraction of fighting, at the behest of Tehran / Persians / in Syria, although holding some value to them, is very possibly becoming a burden they question spending capital on.

If Assad wants to keep Hezbollah's support, it will take more than just Iran ordering Hezbollah to commit forces.

Assad will have to do two things:

1.  Sweeten the pot for Hezbollah... weapons... and ones they really want.

2.  Convince them that if he falls, they fall.... "we are all in this Sectarian war together"!!!

Now, could someone be "leveraging" the anxiety that seems to be building in the ranks of Hezbollah?

You bet and I can think of several suspects!!!

Can it work; can Hezbollah begin to resist the conflict in Syria?

I don't see how, for to do so would in all practicality make Assad's second point become a reality.

A fractionalized Hezbollah is a dream come true, unless you sit and think about a Sunni steamroller rolling over the GCC states.

Would the Muslim Brotherhood like to see Hezbollah marginalized and divided?

Yep..

Would Israel?

Yep...

Would the West.. well.... the US.... ???

Yep..

Oh what a complicated game the Middle East is!!!!

Everyone wants to be in charge and everyone is willing to betray the guy / nation / cause / next to them to get there...

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Dissent-within-Hezbollah-over-involvement-in-Syria-310316

ATTACK IN BOSTON... WHAT IT MEANS TO ASSAD, IRAN, NORTH KOREA!

One thing was for certain early yesterday afternoon; the media would not be talking about North Korea anytime soon.

The media is not set to let the possible UN WMD team inspections for Syria simply slip by.

Did anyone mention the failure of the ongoing negotiations with Iran over it's nuclear program?

Yes, it's easy to see and understand that all three of these very important events have dropped out of the public's eye; although, you can rest assured they have not dropped out of the watchful eye of the US government and its Allies.

Assad and Tehran may have had nothing to do with the events in Boston; I am very convinced of that...given the price that would be paid if they were tied to the attack, but you  can rest assured they both will take every advantage they can as the US and it's Allies try to determine who was behind this event.

We have all known for over two years now Assad looks at every opportunity of a "distraction" as a gift.

Although Tehran is not as desperate for the act of a distraction, it is welcomed never the less.

Tehran sees the concept of "distractions" as one simple but critical element in their Master Plan.....time.... distractions buy them what they need most....time!!!!

Here  comes the fundamental difference between Iran, Syria and North Korea!

The attack in Boston is not an "advantage" for North Korea... the attack in Boston does not buy North Korea "time".

As a matter of fact, the attack in Boston has the complete opposite impact on the Boy Dictator in North Korea; it removes him from the daily spotlight and that is, in my opinion, the most dangerous issue possible.

You see, everything he has been doing has all been designed to gather the world's attention to his ability to make the world listen to him......well.......maybe....... part of me still fears he really does think he can go to war with the South and the US!!

So, from the perspective of the young Dictator, the Boston attack was a disaster.

Virtually nobody in the Western Press even mentioned his name one time today.

His latest threat towards South Korea was probably hastily formulated last night in a feeble attempt to get the media talking about North Korea again.....it didn't work!!!

Could history show those who read about it in the future that the second war on the Korean Peninsula was the byproduct of a gutless attack on the Boston Marathon?

Did a neurotic, paranoid inferiority complex Dictator stumble into a disastrous war because  he simply lost the attention of the Western Media?

Lets hope not, but in the military, there is an old saying, 'hope is not a plan"!!!

THE IS NOTHING HEROIC IN TERRORISM!!

I was going to spend my time tonight following up on the divisions emerging in the Syrian Rebels, but the events of Boston brought me back to a topic I've spent years contemplating.

Terrorist ........Terrorism:  Who are they..........Really???

"One man's freedom fighter is anther man's Terrorist"!!

It depends!

What acts are you willing to conduct?

A "Freedom Fighter" fights the support mechanisms of the government they oppose.

A " Freedom Fighter" does not target ordinary citizens, even the ones that live under the leadership in conflict and especially eight year old little children watching a Marathon with his or her parents.

Ok, I know... there are those who will always make the outrageous  statement, " well.... the US or it's Allies kill innocent children and citizens everyday ..... so what is the difference"?

If you are someone you know is one of this opinion, let me show you the light and then let's see if you can stand as a just person.

When a group or a person targets individuals that will have absolutely no impact on the government they oppose other than revenge, then that group or person is a Terrorist.

If a Freedom Fighter hides inside a house having a wedding, knowing all along their enemy may strike them regardless, then they are Terrorist.. and gutless one's at that.

What took place today in Boston was not the actions of some "Resistance" or some "following".

What took place today was murder!

Everyday our govenment sends it's men and women in uniform to exicute the missions tasked to them by their leadership.

They do so knowing in the mind of a real human, they and their leadership are the only real targets and they do this without reservation.

They do this to pull the Terrorist away from places like Boston.

When someone or some group goes around them, and attacks children watching a marathon with a weapon as horrendous as a shrapnel bomb, they take themselves into a new category of species.... sub human....and as such.. that is how they should be dealt with!!!

So, tomorrow morning when I wake up and begin to read what the rest of the world has to say about this event, I am sure to find the age old rhetorical, "well.. the US and it's Allies are Terrorist as well"...

Just understand this... If you truly believe there is no difference between a government that targets the enemy and not it's children watching an event and whomever executed this attack today in Boston........try to avoid hiding in someone's wedding party!!

Better yet... drive up to the gates of Ft Bragg...or a Police Precinct in New York ...pull out your gun and do as John Wayne did... "Meet your Maker you Son's of Bit..es"...

It worked for John.... I wouldn't  be as optimistic for you!!!

But then again,, that would be the actions of a "fighter"........ not a gutless.... sub human.. .so called Freedom Fighter!!!

Oh ya... Just in case this was a Home Grown/ Domestic event, and I don't think it was, then nothing changes...

NORTH KOREA AND SYRIA... MORE COMPLICATED THAN WE THINK!

Well, all the talk today seem to center around the idea that North Korea may actually be backing off it's war stance.

As this "Concept" quickly became the "group think", the Talking Heads once again began to philosophize on how North Korea had played the same old cards... threat... appeasement... aid.... broken promises... back to threat!!!

So, is this really what is going on?

Are we about to see North Korea take a step back?

Here is one way to look at this question?

What has changed?

Did North Korea come to the realization their country would be destroyed by the war they scream about?

Would anyone in North Korea, other than the elite who run the country, really know the difference in his or her lifestyle after such a war?

Two weeks ago I made the statement the people of North Korea may actually come out on such a war with more to eat and a new government that just might provide for the nation in Ernest.

So why the North Korean Issue is so much more complicated than the media and the public comprehends?

Once again, lets look at what makes this issue important to not just those fearing war on the Korean Peninsula, but the overall relationship between the rising powerhouse in the World, China and the retreating US / West.

I am still convinced the Chinese government is far more concerned about allowing the US and it's Allies to dictate the fate on a conflict right on China's border!

I am still convinced the Chinese government see the Korean Peninsula issue from the perspective of "regional dominance" and not just the reunification of Korea.

China goals have not changed with the Korean issue.

The Panda Bear with a Dragon's tail hanging out the backend is in a much larger struggle to become the "Regional" powerbroker and as such it sees the Korean issue far differently than most.

Oh; don't think for a minute the US government doesn't comprehend this issue.

The reality is this, both countries understand the Korean peninsula crisis is a "regional" / strategic issue, not just about North Korean nuclear weapons or humanitarian conditions in North Korea.

The Korean Peninsula event is a power struggle plain and simple; between the new kid on the block who is finally willing to start pushing his weight around and the old prize fighter who needs to convince life long supporters they still " have it"!!!

If it was only about North Korea and nuclear weapons, the issue would be solved in one phone call between the two Super Powers; it's not.... and that is the issue.

Ok, so how does this relate to the events in Syria?

Well, what's one way to make an old prize fighter look like he is over the hill?

Yep, give him more than he can handle!!!

Who would formulate such a complex strategy?

The Tsar would!

Putin may not have designed what has taken place in Syria, but like the old Master of the KGB that he is, he has found a way to leverage the crisis.

Can the US handle the politics, economics and public opinion strain of two events on ether side of the world.. with both having few options for success?

My bet is that is just what the Tsar and the Panda Bear / slash Dragon mutant / are assessing.

By the way, did the Chinese just have everything go their way when the US asked China to "intervene" with North Korea?

Did we just prove their point?

Is China the only one that can really make things happen in that part of the world anymore?

If so, what a complex and clever game this round of North Korean  " I will kill you" was!

On the other hand!!!!

Did the US just box in the Dragon mutant by forcing them to deal with North Korea?

What if North Korea spits on the Dragon?

Does the Dragon crush the little nation to show it's military capability?

Does the actions of the Dragon show the other counties in the region just how dangerous the Dragon is becoming and drive them full speed into Western arms?

Yep.... North Korea and Syria are far more complex than most imagine for one simple reason..... it's not about North Korea or Syria!!!

HEZBOLLAH'S REASON FOR FIGHTING IN SYRIA??? SURVIVAL THAT'S WHY!

When I came across the story today,  I was surprised how complex the author made the whole issue.

Why is Hezbollah fighting in Syria?????? Survival..... that's why!!!!

What I did find interesting was the author's explanation as to the two factions inside of Hezbollah, North / Bekaa and the South / Educated shiites.

Once again, it became apparent, at least to me, just how important a "leverage point" this split inside Hezbollah could become.

As I have said time and time again, the "glue" called religion / Shia / Sunni / is not the agent that binds these groups together; not when we are talking "internal" cohesiveness.

It's "bloodline" and who has grown up with whom?

This author's explanation of Bekaa and "Southern" Shiites comes down to the same issue.

In the US, when it comes to emergencies, there is a universal saying; " all 'events' are local'!!

No matter what the federal government believes are responds to, if it happens in the US, the "locals" are the fist to shape what the actions are reactions are going to be.

The same concept holds true in the Middle East and this Bekaa / Southern Shiite issue is just another example.

What this story does a decent job of is posing the question; just how strong is the Hezbollah commitment to actions in Syria?

To the Shiites of the Bekaa region, the Syrian Civil War is " local"... and as such it has a much different since of urgency.

To the "educated" Southern Hezbollah members, Syria is a "Strategic" issue that will impact the long term vision of Hezbollah.

Whenever you have two "visions" inside one organization, you have all the ingredients for trouble!!!!

Can Hezbollah survive the fall of Assad in Syria?

Probably, but will it stop there?

That is the question that keeps Hezbollah leadership up at night.

Will the Sunni movement in the Bekaa region of Lebanon, become a primary target after the fall of Assad?

Absolutely!!!

Will that impact the future of Hezbollah?

Absolutely!!!

Will the Sunni fighters be successful in driving a wedge in between the "factions" inside of Hezbollah?

That is the real question.

Hezbollah's leaders and their Bosses in Tehran will strive to keep Syria a battle zone long after Assad falls and by doing so, they will hopefully keep the Sunni fighters occupied to the point they don't turn their attention on attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Here is the real crisis for Hezbollah..

It's not going to work!!!

As I have said for almost two years now; the war in Syria can easily lead to the downfall of Hezbollah and they now it!!

House divided in Hezbollah.... we shall see...

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/reasons-hezbollah-decision-fight-syria-lebanon.html