THE IS NOTHING HEROIC IN TERRORISM!!

I was going to spend my time tonight following up on the divisions emerging in the Syrian Rebels, but the events of Boston brought me back to a topic I've spent years contemplating.

Terrorist ........Terrorism:  Who are they..........Really???

"One man's freedom fighter is anther man's Terrorist"!!

It depends!

What acts are you willing to conduct?

A "Freedom Fighter" fights the support mechanisms of the government they oppose.

A " Freedom Fighter" does not target ordinary citizens, even the ones that live under the leadership in conflict and especially eight year old little children watching a Marathon with his or her parents.

Ok, I know... there are those who will always make the outrageous  statement, " well.... the US or it's Allies kill innocent children and citizens everyday ..... so what is the difference"?

If you are someone you know is one of this opinion, let me show you the light and then let's see if you can stand as a just person.

When a group or a person targets individuals that will have absolutely no impact on the government they oppose other than revenge, then that group or person is a Terrorist.

If a Freedom Fighter hides inside a house having a wedding, knowing all along their enemy may strike them regardless, then they are Terrorist.. and gutless one's at that.

What took place today in Boston was not the actions of some "Resistance" or some "following".

What took place today was murder!

Everyday our govenment sends it's men and women in uniform to exicute the missions tasked to them by their leadership.

They do so knowing in the mind of a real human, they and their leadership are the only real targets and they do this without reservation.

They do this to pull the Terrorist away from places like Boston.

When someone or some group goes around them, and attacks children watching a marathon with a weapon as horrendous as a shrapnel bomb, they take themselves into a new category of species.... sub human....and as such.. that is how they should be dealt with!!!

So, tomorrow morning when I wake up and begin to read what the rest of the world has to say about this event, I am sure to find the age old rhetorical, "well.. the US and it's Allies are Terrorist as well"...

Just understand this... If you truly believe there is no difference between a government that targets the enemy and not it's children watching an event and whomever executed this attack today in Boston........try to avoid hiding in someone's wedding party!!

Better yet... drive up to the gates of Ft Bragg...or a Police Precinct in New York ...pull out your gun and do as John Wayne did... "Meet your Maker you Son's of Bit..es"...

It worked for John.... I wouldn't  be as optimistic for you!!!

But then again,, that would be the actions of a "fighter"........ not a gutless.... sub human.. .so called Freedom Fighter!!!

Oh ya... Just in case this was a Home Grown/ Domestic event, and I don't think it was, then nothing changes...

NORTH KOREA AND SYRIA... MORE COMPLICATED THAN WE THINK!

Well, all the talk today seem to center around the idea that North Korea may actually be backing off it's war stance.

As this "Concept" quickly became the "group think", the Talking Heads once again began to philosophize on how North Korea had played the same old cards... threat... appeasement... aid.... broken promises... back to threat!!!

So, is this really what is going on?

Are we about to see North Korea take a step back?

Here is one way to look at this question?

What has changed?

Did North Korea come to the realization their country would be destroyed by the war they scream about?

Would anyone in North Korea, other than the elite who run the country, really know the difference in his or her lifestyle after such a war?

Two weeks ago I made the statement the people of North Korea may actually come out on such a war with more to eat and a new government that just might provide for the nation in Ernest.

So why the North Korean Issue is so much more complicated than the media and the public comprehends?

Once again, lets look at what makes this issue important to not just those fearing war on the Korean Peninsula, but the overall relationship between the rising powerhouse in the World, China and the retreating US / West.

I am still convinced the Chinese government is far more concerned about allowing the US and it's Allies to dictate the fate on a conflict right on China's border!

I am still convinced the Chinese government see the Korean Peninsula issue from the perspective of "regional dominance" and not just the reunification of Korea.

China goals have not changed with the Korean issue.

The Panda Bear with a Dragon's tail hanging out the backend is in a much larger struggle to become the "Regional" powerbroker and as such it sees the Korean issue far differently than most.

Oh; don't think for a minute the US government doesn't comprehend this issue.

The reality is this, both countries understand the Korean peninsula crisis is a "regional" / strategic issue, not just about North Korean nuclear weapons or humanitarian conditions in North Korea.

The Korean Peninsula event is a power struggle plain and simple; between the new kid on the block who is finally willing to start pushing his weight around and the old prize fighter who needs to convince life long supporters they still " have it"!!!

If it was only about North Korea and nuclear weapons, the issue would be solved in one phone call between the two Super Powers; it's not.... and that is the issue.

Ok, so how does this relate to the events in Syria?

Well, what's one way to make an old prize fighter look like he is over the hill?

Yep, give him more than he can handle!!!

Who would formulate such a complex strategy?

The Tsar would!

Putin may not have designed what has taken place in Syria, but like the old Master of the KGB that he is, he has found a way to leverage the crisis.

Can the US handle the politics, economics and public opinion strain of two events on ether side of the world.. with both having few options for success?

My bet is that is just what the Tsar and the Panda Bear / slash Dragon mutant / are assessing.

By the way, did the Chinese just have everything go their way when the US asked China to "intervene" with North Korea?

Did we just prove their point?

Is China the only one that can really make things happen in that part of the world anymore?

If so, what a complex and clever game this round of North Korean  " I will kill you" was!

On the other hand!!!!

Did the US just box in the Dragon mutant by forcing them to deal with North Korea?

What if North Korea spits on the Dragon?

Does the Dragon crush the little nation to show it's military capability?

Does the actions of the Dragon show the other counties in the region just how dangerous the Dragon is becoming and drive them full speed into Western arms?

Yep.... North Korea and Syria are far more complex than most imagine for one simple reason..... it's not about North Korea or Syria!!!

HEZBOLLAH'S REASON FOR FIGHTING IN SYRIA??? SURVIVAL THAT'S WHY!

When I came across the story today,  I was surprised how complex the author made the whole issue.

Why is Hezbollah fighting in Syria?????? Survival..... that's why!!!!

What I did find interesting was the author's explanation as to the two factions inside of Hezbollah, North / Bekaa and the South / Educated shiites.

Once again, it became apparent, at least to me, just how important a "leverage point" this split inside Hezbollah could become.

As I have said time and time again, the "glue" called religion / Shia / Sunni / is not the agent that binds these groups together; not when we are talking "internal" cohesiveness.

It's "bloodline" and who has grown up with whom?

This author's explanation of Bekaa and "Southern" Shiites comes down to the same issue.

In the US, when it comes to emergencies, there is a universal saying; " all 'events' are local'!!

No matter what the federal government believes are responds to, if it happens in the US, the "locals" are the fist to shape what the actions are reactions are going to be.

The same concept holds true in the Middle East and this Bekaa / Southern Shiite issue is just another example.

What this story does a decent job of is posing the question; just how strong is the Hezbollah commitment to actions in Syria?

To the Shiites of the Bekaa region, the Syrian Civil War is " local"... and as such it has a much different since of urgency.

To the "educated" Southern Hezbollah members, Syria is a "Strategic" issue that will impact the long term vision of Hezbollah.

Whenever you have two "visions" inside one organization, you have all the ingredients for trouble!!!!

Can Hezbollah survive the fall of Assad in Syria?

Probably, but will it stop there?

That is the question that keeps Hezbollah leadership up at night.

Will the Sunni movement in the Bekaa region of Lebanon, become a primary target after the fall of Assad?

Absolutely!!!

Will that impact the future of Hezbollah?

Absolutely!!!

Will the Sunni fighters be successful in driving a wedge in between the "factions" inside of Hezbollah?

That is the real question.

Hezbollah's leaders and their Bosses in Tehran will strive to keep Syria a battle zone long after Assad falls and by doing so, they will hopefully keep the Sunni fighters occupied to the point they don't turn their attention on attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Here is the real crisis for Hezbollah..

It's not going to work!!!

As I have said for almost two years now; the war in Syria can easily lead to the downfall of Hezbollah and they now it!!

House divided in Hezbollah.... we shall see...

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/reasons-hezbollah-decision-fight-syria-lebanon.html

"BLADE RUNNER" AND ARAB ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST!!!

In the movie, and it was a good one, Blade Runner,  a race of genetically engineered organic robots who have a implanted "code" that causes them to self-destruct at a certain point in their life cycle.

In many ways, this is very similarly to what is wrong with the Arab Islamic Fundamentalist movement.

Sound a bit far fetched???? Here me out!!!

For years I have watched the age old tradition in the Arab make culture of "who is more important"????

For any of you who have worked in the region more than for just a few months, you know exactly what I am referring to.

The concept of one individual becoming more prominent in a organization at the expense, or the perceived expense, of another drives tribal / family bloodline males in the Middle East to the brink of hysteria.

" I am the leader... not you..."..... " I do not report to you"... .. these concepts  are the obstacles that have kept the supporting level leaders in the Middle East in perpetual conflict for centuries.

Now, I will be the first to admit this "fault" is not unique to the Middle Eastern Arab Males, but that group is who makes up the bulk of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement and that is why I address just them now.

It's the reason Al-Nusra quickly denied the "claims" by some "leader" in Iraq many of the Nusra leaders have never even heard of.

Al-Nusra is not going to get in line behind a worn out movement in Iraq that is only now becoming more of a "player" in Iraqi government.

No group is going to try and usurp al-Zawahiri ,but the second level, "most favored Son" title is hotly contended and Al-Nusra is not going to give it up based upon one public media stunt from Iraq.

Ok, so as I listened to the "experts" talking today about the significance of the announcement from al-Nursra about it's allegiance to al-Qaeda, I was once again stunned how so many so called "experts" missed the real issue... The fatal flaw of the movement... the "Blade Runner Effect"!!!

The number one enemy of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement... the "implanted genetic code".... PRIDE... mixed with EGO!!!   with Testosterone as the bonding glue!

Just as "makers" of the "Replicants" in Blade Runner insured the self-destruction of the experiment... perhaps... just perhaps the good Lord has done the same with Fundamentalist?

HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS.. THEN PENDING BATTLE????

Before I comment on a topic I have long contemplated, yet never commented about, I want to cover a very quick but very important issue on the crisis with North Korea.

I will reiterated what I spoke of last week, given the events are no even more dangerous than they were just a few days ago.

As I sat to listen to all the "talking heads" today  virtually foaming at the mouth over North Korea, I couldn't help but think how dangerous of a message we, the West, seemed to be sending.

When you tell a despot, paranoid Dictator you "don't believe him", what results are you looking for?

Are all of our so called experts saying this because they believe North Korea is not serious in their threats?

Or, could it be they playing a game of economics?

What would be the reaction on the world markets if the US came out and said, " We believe this time North Korea is not bluffing"!!!

Having said that, can any statement possibly make this unstable fool any more desperate to be taken seriously?

If some of us are correct and part of this young leaders problem is his own internal conflict with his military leaders, then making him look like a man of empty words could be a disastrous concept.

Given that, we must remember a great deal of " backdoor" discussion takes place through "third party" nations and hopefully that keeps paranoid leaders from overreacting.

Regardless, the situation in North Korea is the worst it's been since the end of the last conflict there and I'm  not sure how much longer the world markets will ignore it.

World business leaders have their own way of gathering "intelligence" and if you see the markets reacting, you can bet they have found out something the media is not aware of...yet!!!

Ok, back to what I want to talk about.

When I read the linked article today, I told myself it was time I talked about an issue that some of us have thought about for months now!

Can the events in Syria and the events between the Sunni and Shia lead to a open conflict between Hamas units and Hezbollah units?

If not, who has the power to keep them apart and thus virtually destroying any myth of unity between them?

It's not hard to understand how someone like Assad and his Father misinterpreted their ability to "control" two polar opposites like Hamas and Hezbollah.

DAMASCUS... THE BATTLE TO END IT ALL??? NOT REALLY!!

I found this article interesting from the standpoint of why the Rebels would continue to spread the rumor of Assad's demise!!!

I would agree the overall goal is to paint a picture of helplessness, but I think the author missed who the real "audience" was and is.

If you need someone's support base to give up, you need to convince them the organization or person they are backing is beyond help.

Now, in Assad's case, at the non nation state level, this is difficult to accomplish.

Most of his "localized" support fears his fall more than they fear abandoning him.

From the beginning of this conflict, I have said Assad's real danger was his largest support base, Iran and Russia.

Developing stories about his death are simply not going to impact his support from his two nation state supporters.

Breaking the will of those living near him who  support him is not going to bring about the fall of Assad!!!

Rumors backed by rumors are simply not going to impact outcome of Assad's rule.

Iran and Russia will decided that, unless Jabhat al-Nusra or a group close to them gets a lucky shot off.

As Mr Weiss comments about the battle for Damascus, I think he has forgotten one important trait of conflict that often leads to a rapid change of events; moral!

It's one thing to fight door to door in the Northern sections of your country always somewhat confident that the conflict will have a positive ending and you will go back home soon!

But, when you are fighting door to door, after two years of nonstop contact, and you are doing so in your own capital, then morale becomes what is commonly known in military studies as " The Center of Gravity"!!!!

Fighters, even solders will only fight to the point of broken morale!!!

At that point in time, even a superior enemy will often put down their arms, leave the battlefield or simply surrender.

History is full of such events.

For planning purposes, the West and the GCC hope the battle for Damascus is a lingering event.

You see, a "lingering event" gives everyone hope a solution can be formulated.

Simply put, a lingering event buys everyone outside the conflict........time!!!

I'm have very little confidence toward the end of this Civil War in Syria the fall of Damascus will "linger"!!

Battles and Wars are won and lost based on morale... not the morale of the political leaders still sleeping sound in their plush beds, eating full meals and gaining weight!!

No, wars and Battles are lost when those who bleed and scream and get up after falling for the thousandth time no longer have the will ...... morale to do it again!!!

Do not set your planning clock based upon the troops left in Damascus and the superior weapons everyone seems to fixate on.

Set you planning clocks based on the conversations taking place at two o'clock in the morning as exhausted Syrian troops feebly defend what is left of Damascus!!

Weapons do not win conflicts..... Humans  do... as long as they have morale and hope!!

http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4952493325943547&pid=1.7&w=226&h=151&c=7&rs=1

AGAIN..... THE ISSUE OF NORTH KOREA AND IRAN????

I came across yet another article on the topic of the relationship between North Korea and Iran and how both of these crises could feed off of each other.

Now, this is probably the fourth of fifth time in the past two years I've addressed this "relationship", but in the past I've concentrated on issue of this "relationship" being deliberate.

In the past, I have addressed the concept of both nations have some level of a working alliance in time of crisis.

Today, I'm going to propose a lesser version of this theory, although I'm still not unconvinced they have a more formal agreement.

Let's assume the Tenets of Warfare have not changed with the events of ether North Korea or Iran.

If you know your "enemy" is distracted or overly concerned at a point in time when you are attempting to stave off an attack or achieve some strategic goal, then logic would dictate this issue should be exploited.

Now, in the past, I've addressed the strategically sensitive issue of the US and it's Allies having to deal with two major events taking place in the world at nearly the same point in time and the "difficulties" that would create.  

Current US doctrine states this is still the required capability of it's forces, but that is not really the issue.

The issue is and would be, are the American people ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to execute this action?

Since the attack on September 11th 2001, the simple fact of the matter is, the American people, in mass, have forgotten their nation is a protracted conflict; a conflict that is far more complicated than dealing with radical religious zealots who have a death wish!

The family and friends of the members who have paid the price for this conflict feel the pain it has caused with every day of their lives, but the American people have all gone back to watching " Dancing with the Stars" or Duck Dynasty..... and rightfully so given this is what those who paid the price of this conflict fought and are fighting for.

But that is where the problem becomes one that must not be ignored.

Perception:

How often has the concept of "Perception" been discussed in this modern, Social media based world?

As the leadership of Iran and North Korea looking into the crystal ball of "risk".... the risk of pushing their combined Nuclear Weapons programs too far...... what do they see in terms of "resolve"?

Now, what do I mean by "resolve"?

Are these two Enemies of the West judging the "resolve" of their opponents, mainly the US, on what is said by it's politicians or it's Generals?

How do we get into the minds of their decision makers?

How do we do, what we in the West have historically been terrible at, and that  is "reading the intent of our enemies?

Our history shows us we base a huge part of or "intent analysis process" on the visual..... Satellites and other electronic devices. " It doesn't 'appear' they are doing this or doing that'.."!!!!

As the US ratcheted up and then attempted  to ratchet down the war of words this week, what impact did this have on the "intent" process in Iran and North Korea?

Did we make things better or worse???

Do we even know??

If so, how did we base it???

Satellites???

For all of the technological advancements we have made in the past few decades, we have done very little in the field of reading someone's "intent"!!

So, lets go back to the original question.

Does Iran and North Korea think the West, namely the US have the stomach for a war unlike any we have seen since the last Korean war?

Do they believe the West, US, has the willpower to deal with Iran and North Korea at the same time?

I, like the rest, have no way of reading 'intent", but sometimes you have to go with pure "gut feelings" as often our political leaders must do, and this time my gut tells me both these nations are going to push their issues to the brink and it is historically at this "brink" point that tragic often unintended events take place!!!

Perception and intent........... Two words whose meaning holds the fate of yet another terrible conflict.