"BLADE RUNNER" AND ARAB ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST!!!

In the movie, and it was a good one, Blade Runner,  a race of genetically engineered organic robots who have a implanted "code" that causes them to self-destruct at a certain point in their life cycle.

In many ways, this is very similarly to what is wrong with the Arab Islamic Fundamentalist movement.

Sound a bit far fetched???? Here me out!!!

For years I have watched the age old tradition in the Arab make culture of "who is more important"????

For any of you who have worked in the region more than for just a few months, you know exactly what I am referring to.

The concept of one individual becoming more prominent in a organization at the expense, or the perceived expense, of another drives tribal / family bloodline males in the Middle East to the brink of hysteria.

" I am the leader... not you..."..... " I do not report to you"... .. these concepts  are the obstacles that have kept the supporting level leaders in the Middle East in perpetual conflict for centuries.

Now, I will be the first to admit this "fault" is not unique to the Middle Eastern Arab Males, but that group is who makes up the bulk of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement and that is why I address just them now.

It's the reason Al-Nusra quickly denied the "claims" by some "leader" in Iraq many of the Nusra leaders have never even heard of.

Al-Nusra is not going to get in line behind a worn out movement in Iraq that is only now becoming more of a "player" in Iraqi government.

No group is going to try and usurp al-Zawahiri ,but the second level, "most favored Son" title is hotly contended and Al-Nusra is not going to give it up based upon one public media stunt from Iraq.

Ok, so as I listened to the "experts" talking today about the significance of the announcement from al-Nursra about it's allegiance to al-Qaeda, I was once again stunned how so many so called "experts" missed the real issue... The fatal flaw of the movement... the "Blade Runner Effect"!!!

The number one enemy of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement... the "implanted genetic code".... PRIDE... mixed with EGO!!!   with Testosterone as the bonding glue!

Just as "makers" of the "Replicants" in Blade Runner insured the self-destruction of the experiment... perhaps... just perhaps the good Lord has done the same with Fundamentalist?

HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS.. THEN PENDING BATTLE????

Before I comment on a topic I have long contemplated, yet never commented about, I want to cover a very quick but very important issue on the crisis with North Korea.

I will reiterated what I spoke of last week, given the events are no even more dangerous than they were just a few days ago.

As I sat to listen to all the "talking heads" today  virtually foaming at the mouth over North Korea, I couldn't help but think how dangerous of a message we, the West, seemed to be sending.

When you tell a despot, paranoid Dictator you "don't believe him", what results are you looking for?

Are all of our so called experts saying this because they believe North Korea is not serious in their threats?

Or, could it be they playing a game of economics?

What would be the reaction on the world markets if the US came out and said, " We believe this time North Korea is not bluffing"!!!

Having said that, can any statement possibly make this unstable fool any more desperate to be taken seriously?

If some of us are correct and part of this young leaders problem is his own internal conflict with his military leaders, then making him look like a man of empty words could be a disastrous concept.

Given that, we must remember a great deal of " backdoor" discussion takes place through "third party" nations and hopefully that keeps paranoid leaders from overreacting.

Regardless, the situation in North Korea is the worst it's been since the end of the last conflict there and I'm  not sure how much longer the world markets will ignore it.

World business leaders have their own way of gathering "intelligence" and if you see the markets reacting, you can bet they have found out something the media is not aware of...yet!!!

Ok, back to what I want to talk about.

When I read the linked article today, I told myself it was time I talked about an issue that some of us have thought about for months now!

Can the events in Syria and the events between the Sunni and Shia lead to a open conflict between Hamas units and Hezbollah units?

If not, who has the power to keep them apart and thus virtually destroying any myth of unity between them?

It's not hard to understand how someone like Assad and his Father misinterpreted their ability to "control" two polar opposites like Hamas and Hezbollah.

DAMASCUS... THE BATTLE TO END IT ALL??? NOT REALLY!!

I found this article interesting from the standpoint of why the Rebels would continue to spread the rumor of Assad's demise!!!

I would agree the overall goal is to paint a picture of helplessness, but I think the author missed who the real "audience" was and is.

If you need someone's support base to give up, you need to convince them the organization or person they are backing is beyond help.

Now, in Assad's case, at the non nation state level, this is difficult to accomplish.

Most of his "localized" support fears his fall more than they fear abandoning him.

From the beginning of this conflict, I have said Assad's real danger was his largest support base, Iran and Russia.

Developing stories about his death are simply not going to impact his support from his two nation state supporters.

Breaking the will of those living near him who  support him is not going to bring about the fall of Assad!!!

Rumors backed by rumors are simply not going to impact outcome of Assad's rule.

Iran and Russia will decided that, unless Jabhat al-Nusra or a group close to them gets a lucky shot off.

As Mr Weiss comments about the battle for Damascus, I think he has forgotten one important trait of conflict that often leads to a rapid change of events; moral!

It's one thing to fight door to door in the Northern sections of your country always somewhat confident that the conflict will have a positive ending and you will go back home soon!

But, when you are fighting door to door, after two years of nonstop contact, and you are doing so in your own capital, then morale becomes what is commonly known in military studies as " The Center of Gravity"!!!!

Fighters, even solders will only fight to the point of broken morale!!!

At that point in time, even a superior enemy will often put down their arms, leave the battlefield or simply surrender.

History is full of such events.

For planning purposes, the West and the GCC hope the battle for Damascus is a lingering event.

You see, a "lingering event" gives everyone hope a solution can be formulated.

Simply put, a lingering event buys everyone outside the conflict........time!!!

I'm have very little confidence toward the end of this Civil War in Syria the fall of Damascus will "linger"!!

Battles and Wars are won and lost based on morale... not the morale of the political leaders still sleeping sound in their plush beds, eating full meals and gaining weight!!

No, wars and Battles are lost when those who bleed and scream and get up after falling for the thousandth time no longer have the will ...... morale to do it again!!!

Do not set your planning clock based upon the troops left in Damascus and the superior weapons everyone seems to fixate on.

Set you planning clocks based on the conversations taking place at two o'clock in the morning as exhausted Syrian troops feebly defend what is left of Damascus!!

Weapons do not win conflicts..... Humans  do... as long as they have morale and hope!!

http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4952493325943547&pid=1.7&w=226&h=151&c=7&rs=1

AGAIN..... THE ISSUE OF NORTH KOREA AND IRAN????

I came across yet another article on the topic of the relationship between North Korea and Iran and how both of these crises could feed off of each other.

Now, this is probably the fourth of fifth time in the past two years I've addressed this "relationship", but in the past I've concentrated on issue of this "relationship" being deliberate.

In the past, I have addressed the concept of both nations have some level of a working alliance in time of crisis.

Today, I'm going to propose a lesser version of this theory, although I'm still not unconvinced they have a more formal agreement.

Let's assume the Tenets of Warfare have not changed with the events of ether North Korea or Iran.

If you know your "enemy" is distracted or overly concerned at a point in time when you are attempting to stave off an attack or achieve some strategic goal, then logic would dictate this issue should be exploited.

Now, in the past, I've addressed the strategically sensitive issue of the US and it's Allies having to deal with two major events taking place in the world at nearly the same point in time and the "difficulties" that would create.  

Current US doctrine states this is still the required capability of it's forces, but that is not really the issue.

The issue is and would be, are the American people ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to execute this action?

Since the attack on September 11th 2001, the simple fact of the matter is, the American people, in mass, have forgotten their nation is a protracted conflict; a conflict that is far more complicated than dealing with radical religious zealots who have a death wish!

The family and friends of the members who have paid the price for this conflict feel the pain it has caused with every day of their lives, but the American people have all gone back to watching " Dancing with the Stars" or Duck Dynasty..... and rightfully so given this is what those who paid the price of this conflict fought and are fighting for.

But that is where the problem becomes one that must not be ignored.

Perception:

How often has the concept of "Perception" been discussed in this modern, Social media based world?

As the leadership of Iran and North Korea looking into the crystal ball of "risk".... the risk of pushing their combined Nuclear Weapons programs too far...... what do they see in terms of "resolve"?

Now, what do I mean by "resolve"?

Are these two Enemies of the West judging the "resolve" of their opponents, mainly the US, on what is said by it's politicians or it's Generals?

How do we get into the minds of their decision makers?

How do we do, what we in the West have historically been terrible at, and that  is "reading the intent of our enemies?

Our history shows us we base a huge part of or "intent analysis process" on the visual..... Satellites and other electronic devices. " It doesn't 'appear' they are doing this or doing that'.."!!!!

As the US ratcheted up and then attempted  to ratchet down the war of words this week, what impact did this have on the "intent" process in Iran and North Korea?

Did we make things better or worse???

Do we even know??

If so, how did we base it???

Satellites???

For all of the technological advancements we have made in the past few decades, we have done very little in the field of reading someone's "intent"!!

So, lets go back to the original question.

Does Iran and North Korea think the West, namely the US have the stomach for a war unlike any we have seen since the last Korean war?

Do they believe the West, US, has the willpower to deal with Iran and North Korea at the same time?

I, like the rest, have no way of reading 'intent", but sometimes you have to go with pure "gut feelings" as often our political leaders must do, and this time my gut tells me both these nations are going to push their issues to the brink and it is historically at this "brink" point that tragic often unintended events take place!!!

Perception and intent........... Two words whose meaning holds the fate of yet another terrible conflict.

NORTH KOREA NEXT STEP... IS IT TRULY THEIRS TO TAKE?

Going to take another break from my area of interest tonight to talk about the continuing saga called North Korea.

Now, I have brought up the issue of Iran and North Korea several times in the past year, so tonight I will take the North Korean issue in another hypothetical direction.

Before I give my opinion on why I believe North Korea may not determine its own fate, let me make one very important analogy!

In this militarily, technologically advanced world there is simply nothing more dangerous than a young, unbalanced extremely paranoid dictator.

Assigning rational actions an individual  who would all likelihood is completely irrational is a very dangerous gamble.

The constant "chatter" that North Korea's doing nothing more than "saber rattling" for the sake of gaining attention or forming a stronger leverage point for negotiations with the United States is quite honestly adding fuel to the fire.......... fire that burns inside the mind of a young dictator!

Is there anything more dangerous than laughing at or ignoring mental patient with a gun in her hand?

Okay, back to my main discussion for this evening.

As I often do, I would like to play the "what if game" once again.

What if?

What if, as I stated before, the real puppetmaster behind this North Korean crisis is the Chinese?

What if?

What if the Chinese have grown tired of their North Korean proxy fighter who no longer fits into the long-term plans of the current Chinese leadership?

What if?

What if China is come to realize that the true trading partner on the peninsula is South Korea and that the 25 million individuals of North Korea hold little to no economic value to the Chinese world economy?

What if?

What if the Chinese government understands the long term impact of solving the Korean Peninsula crisis and thus neutralizing United States stands remaining in the region?

What if?

What if the new leader of North Korea were to suddenly be removed a group of North Korean generals who truly work for their Chinese masters?

What if?

What if the peacekeeping force that would enter a collapse North Korean government is one of the Chinese military that has pre-coordinated such events behind closed doors with both the South and "others"?

What if?

What if the Chinese government took the North Korean crisis as an opportunity to show the US and the rest of the world new and improved Chinese military capability yet wrapped it in the disguise of a human sanctioned peacekeeping force in the collapsed North Korean government?

Dissolve this sound ridiculous?

If you ask "talking heads" in the Western media they would probably be willing to give their opinion for a fee, as always!

The Chinese are the masters of long-term deep, detailed planning expiration point

 Young paranoid leader of North Korea may not be marching to the master plan of the Chinese government, but he is easily predictable enough to be manipulated by most complex planning organization in the world; the Chinese government!

So, what if?

SYRIAN FUEL AND LEBANON:

Ok, the issue of fuel status for the Syrian government and more importantly the Syrian Military has been discussed for months now, but the issue is becoming more and more visible.

Overland movements from Iraq are limited and even more difficult from Iran.

Overland movements from Lebanon have been taking place for some time now, but with the increased awareness of these movements has come the attempts to stop them.

What fuel can be moved by sea is the bulk issue and it is not out of the question these operations could become targets soon.

A simple law of warfare is taking place here... stop the ability of your enemy to maneuver and then simply move around them.

If the Syrian military takes priority for what processed fuel is left in Syria, remember the Rebels now own several key fuel facilities, those who are left supporting Assad can only interpret this as yet another sign of the pending doom at their doorstep.

Fuel is a critical issue for Assad and his military and the ability to supply him with enough fuel, especially aviation fuel, is a critical matter for Iran and Russia.

What flags fly on the ships that bring bulk fuel into the ports may be the only thing that is saving these facilities from coming under attack, but this protection may not last much longer.

The ability to slip into a port facility is not that difficult and the dramatic scene such an attack would create is more than enticing to the rebels.

It's simple to understand; fuel is becoming an issue that everyone anticipated it would become at some point in time.

Life is no longer "normal" even in downtown Damascus and the rationing of fuel is just another in a series of crushing blows to the Assad Regime.

A Land movement of diesel from Lebanon is critical to the Syrian Military and Hezbollah knows the pressure is on them to insure these movements can continue.

Bottom line; the fuel issue in Syria is a match ready to be struck in Lebanon.

THE "U.N" PLANS FOR POST ASSAD...........REALLY????

So the UN and Ban Ki-Moon are anticipating UN actions in a post Assad Syria?

I can't describe how disturbing that sounds to me!!!

Can someone please explain to me what it is the UN is capable of without major world powers being involved.... Europe.. The US, China, although they and Russia don't contribute a whole lot other than complaints when it comes to UN actions.

So what nations are going to step into the sectarian battlefield of Syria and "Police" the nation as the UN executes it's typical "support / cleanup" mission support?

Are the "Peace Keeping forces going to come from Africa... South America ... Asia??

Now, the UN might pull off it's typical rental of Third World troops... you know... the ones that get nearly two or three days of intense training before their country charges the UN some outrageous fee for deploying them... deploying based upon someone give them a ride to where they need to be.

Yep, you guessed it.... I don't put a great deal of stock in UN Operations and let's just say I have a great deal of experience on the topic!!!!

Lets look at another group that behind the scenes thinks this concept is as hilarious as I do....... and that would be the GCC!!.... We will not mention the " Two Bears"!!!

So, why has this conversation even come up????

I will tell you why.

Some inside the UN are beginning to understand just how quickly Assad could fall from power or worse yet.... leave for the safety of Iraq or Iran.

Nearly two years ago, I warned everyone that if the day came that Assad fell from power, it could and most likely would happen far faster than anyone anticipated.

If you go back on look at some of my post from the beginning of the Syrian conflict, you will see where I spoke of the dangers of a quick collapse.

Last week, I mentioned the tell tale  changes that were taking place  as we heard reports of very precise mortar attacks in the middle of Damascus.

In my mind and the minds of those like me, the signs brought on by this news was the true warning bell of a possible collapse.

Last year when the International Airport at Damascus became a prime target, the tide began to change and change dramatically.

It was then I spoke of the loss of confidence Assad's backers would begin to feel, to include the Russians and the Iranians.

Ok, let me stop playing, " I  told you so"... it does get old!!!

Here is what the UN is worried about and the news media / "experts" need to get it right and do so quickly.

When Assad falls, the crisis will grow ten fold!!!

Yep, many have said this, but they have been vague on why this statement is true.

Why will Syria slide into a full scale humanitarian disaster; one the UN will be powerless to stop or even marginalize?

Because those countries that have the capability to prevent such an event are not going to step up or at least not in time to prevent it from taking place.

Hunting missions for dangerous weapons will take priority of any other mission when that time comes.

Agreements will need to be reached on who is going to do what after Assad falls....PS.. I still think the threat of his own " loyal" members killing him is more than real!!! Namely Iran!!!

Here is the second issue the UN knows is going to take place soon after Assad's departure!

Hezbollah, or should I say the assault on Hezbollah!!!!

Does anyone think for a second the Sunni groups who concur Syria, the ones that know not to get too distracted by Lebanon, at least not yet, will not turn their attentions towards Lebanon and Hezbollah?

If not, you are fooling yourself.

It will be at that precise moment many of the nations sitting on the sidelines will have to make very difficult choices.

Let Lebanon slide into a sectarian civil war with Hezbollah at the center of the issue, or try some magic to keep the Sunni / Shia war from spreading.

Here comes the most difficult question and the one that everyone has struggled with from day on of the so called Arab Spring............. What to do about it????

So, If you are placing your bets on the actions of the UN, I would bet on a black number... the future of the UN solving this crisis is black!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/04/2013411260451189.html