NORTH KOREA SHORT FOLLOW UP!!

I know I spend 99 percent of my time dealing with and talking about the Middle East, but as I did last night, I'm going to give a short update on what I believe to be significant on the topic of North Korea.

I have chosen to do so for one simple reason, I am sick and tired and frankly very disappointed in all the talk of North Korea's Missile / warhead capabilities.

For the sake of keeping things simple, I will get right to the point.

Everyone needs to stop talking about, "can the reach the US or can they not"?

Anyone who has ever set foot on the Korean Peninsula for the purpose of training to deal with North Korea will tell you what the North's real weapon is.

It's their Special Forces units and the largest network of Spies in the world.

When some "Talking Head", you know the ones.. the folks who say just what the media or social elites want to hear for the sake of appearing as yet another "expert" on the topic or promoting their next book / talking tour, comments on the inability of the North to "deliver" a nuclear weapon to the US mainland, you need to  walk away from the TV or computer screen.

Once again, the arrogance of the "West" trumps any logical assessment of what the North is capable of.

If the North stumbles, and that is exactly what I would anticipate they would do, into a conflict with the US and the South, then their ability to inflict maximum damage will not be based on their current stock of missiles.

Talk to the South Korean Military Commanders...... talk to the South Korean state police and see what keeps them up at night...hint... it's not North Korean Missiles.

So, then someone is bound to ask...." are their Special Forces" members capable of taking action in the US or on our Allies land"?????

Next stupid question please!!!

NORTH KOREA SAYS "STATE OF WAR"... SO.. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Now, I know several times in the past two years I have talked about the potential "relationship" between Iran and North Korea and I am still of a firm belief this "relationship" exist.

Having said that, let me take yet another stab at the "what if" game.

What if the North Koreans and the Iranians had a "deal" to stress the US and the West during a time of threat to ether North Korea or Iran?

As we all know, both have been front page news for months now and both have released their own version of threats towards the US..... Insert " The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend" here!!!

Let me try to answer the basic question of, "Is this time different... Is the North Korean threat more believable or more dangerous this time around.

As you probably have heard time and time again in the past few days or weeks, most of the Talking Heads are still stuck on stupid!!!

Stupid being the canned answer of, "The North really doesn't want a real war with the US or South Korea"!!!!

I have two theories why this answer remains consistent.

1.  it's the "party line" that keeps the stock market from over reacting.

2.  Those that really have no clue what takes place in North Korea, other than cocktail parties with social elites, really do believe North Korea is afraid of generalized warfare.

Ok, after tearing down the accreditations of those who say North Korea will not "go over the edge", let me make an argument why I, like many who are like me, believe this time is truly different.

THE ART OF TALKING TOO MUCH:

First off, it's a simple fact of life that when people make huge statements about what they are willing and able to do and then such  things  so often..... Chicken Little..... everyone begins to simply ignore them.

This is, to some extent, where North Korea now finds itself.

Simply put.... too many threats with no action leads to being ignored.

Now, it's natural for men... ones that take this position..... to get upset when they realize they are being ignored and that often leads to them doing something totally unexpected.

LOSING OLD FRIENDS OR AT LEAST THINKING YOU ARE LOSING THEM:

As I commented on a few weeks ago, for decades the Chinese have been the backstop for the little Bully named North Korea....  " Teeth and Gums".

Well, it's now more than possible the North believes this relationship is at best waning.

It's no secret many of the Chinese news editorials in the past two or three months have hinted to the fact North Korea can no longer be allowed to shape the "destiny" of the Chinese people.

Simply put, I believe the North Korean leadership has the perception that China's future plans do not involve the wellbeing of North Korea.

Remember what I said the last time I talked about this issue.

China may very well see the end game with North and South Korea as a ends to justify the US leaving key locations in the Pacific.

A country of 1.4 Billion may be willing to see a limited war involving only 30 million, non Chinese, as a means of informing the US, when it's over, they no longer have a real reason to keep the force structure in the Pacific.

Now, would this work?

Probably not, but from the mindset of the Chinese or the perception of the North, they both make for a non typical dangerous environment this time around.

Before I go back to my theory of " Enemies of Enemies", let me make one off the cuff but justified statement.

Lets say you are a common North Korean citizen and you know that every day the best you and your children are going to do is split one bowl of rice, perhaps every other day!!!!

You also realize, trust me some do, that if a war does take place and the Northern government is defeated, then the aid that will flow into North Korea will be ten times what you receive day to day....

If you get where I am heading here, then you now know what most Chinese planers have worried about for years... a North Korean population that turns on it's own oppressive leadership as the country is devastated in a war with the US and South Korea.

If you blow this theory off, then you really don't understand the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.

Back to the Enemy of my Enemy issue:

Before anyone questions why would Iran and North Korea agree to support each other in a time of crisis, let me ask one simple question.

Why not?

Tell me why Iran would not agree to watch the US absolutely struggle to deal with a generalized war on the Korean Peninsula at the same time Hezbollah is launching an all out attack into Israel from Lebanon?

What mystical event could prevent this from happening?

Why would it not be the most ideal time for Iran to preempt the pending attack on their nuclear weapons program... a program the North Koreans are helping with...????

So, you should get my point by now.

Simply saying " it cannot happen" or " It's not likely" is not good enough.

Someone show me tangible proof it's not going to happen!

Someone show me why President Bush was wrong when he labeled North Korea and Iran as an "Axes of Evil".. and if you say Bush was an idiot or a "cowboy" than you are too uniformed to really realize how the world works or just how really dangerous the world is!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/29/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

THE GOLAN HEIGHTS.... WHAT IS THE ISSUE AND WHY?

As we continue to look at the issue of events in and around the Golan Heights, need to be focusing on who is creating this environment?

Is it the Syrian government's intention to create tensions in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Syrian rebel's intention to create tension in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Sunni radical fundamentalist units intention to create tensions in the Golan height?

Okay, you get the picture!

The issue is not the fact that tensions are growing in that region, but who is creating the tension and why!

Here's my stab at an answer.

I'm not convinced any of the parties involved is deliberately attempting to provoke an incident in the Golan Heights.

I grow more convinced with each passing day that the problem is based upon the lack of unified effort to ensure instance do not happen in the Golan Heights.

It's obvious the Israelis do not wish a confrontation in this area and is also even more obvious that the Israelis are preparing for potential confrontation in the same area.

Now, it's possible and maybe even highly probable that some splinter group, terrorist cell or cells, would take advantage of this control vacuum in the Golan Heights to stage a launching site for  operations into Israel.

I can almost guarantee you this is exactly the mindset that the Israeli military as of this moment in time.

Does this equate into the Syrian government condoning are supporting such an operation; probably not!

Some might argue that Assad would welcome the distraction of a limited Israeli/IDF/operation in that region in order to draw attention away from the conflict on Syrian soil and more importantly to draw Sunni radical fundamentalist groups resources into a battle with someone other than Assad's forces.

Personally, I think this concept is far-fetched.

The Golan Heights seems to be no different than many other regions bordering the Syrian conflict; increased lawlessness an opportunity waiting to happen.

Unlike the Turks and the Jordanians, Israel will remain far less tolerant of unexplained cross-border violence in the Golan Heights.

Although a deliberate action of provoking the Israelis may not be tactical plan of any one group at this moment in time, there are those who would leverage such an event if it were to happen; insert Iran here.

So, are the Golan Heights more dangerous than any other border region with Syria?

Yes!

You all sides truly understand the dangerous climate that continues to develop and the Golan Heights?

Again, the answer is yes.

Finally, our all parties involved working diligently to ensure that such an escalation does not take place?

I'm afraid the answer to that resides in Tehran; or as the old saying goes, "only the Shadow knows"!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/UN-concerned-Syria-war-spilling-over-into-Golan-307921

THE RUSSIANS GET A "D-" ON LEBANON!!!

                                                                                     

So.... The Russians.... Tsar Putin... is on the "side" of the current Lebanese government... a government that is in the tank for Assad and ruled by Hezbollah..... go figure!!!

Russia is just as proficient at reading Tea Leaves as the next country and they know all too well what time it is in Lebanon!

What really makes them sound foolish... foolish in the minds of the other Middle Eastern nations.... is the outrageous  comment that Lebanese  leadership is trying to prevent a safe haven for the Syrian Rebels.

What's even more laughable is the next comment on how these same "leaders" should not have outside / foreign interference!!!

Really????

Does that apply to Iran and Iraq and Russia when it come to the Syrian Regime?

We all know the answer to that one!!!

Now, truth in discloser, we all also accept the Foreign support the Rebels are receiving and so the criticism of Russia's statement must be somewhat muted.

The truth is, everyone that is involved in "supporting" ether side in Syria should reframe from making statements that simply make their government's look foolish.

Syria, besides being a Sectarian Civil War, is truly recognized as a regional conflict / proxy/ based upon world powers attempting to shape the fate of the once touted " Arab Spring"!!! Remember the Arab Spring????

Lebanon's government is completely incapable of preventing a Rebel base camp operations from existing on Lebanese land and everyone knows it..... including the Russians.

The timing of this Russian statement has everything to do with the events inside the Lebanese government this week.

The question becomes.... why.... what was the Tsar wishing to pass on to the people of the region?

My bet is, he knows the events in Lebanon are not favoring Assad... Iran or Hezbollah and so in someway this armature   statement is an attempt to shore up the Puppet government in Lebanon... a government that is, as of this week, completely inept.

All of us, including the Russians, understand the saverity of the situation in Lebanon and the Tsar really needs to have a better team working on his countries' strategic information operations dealing with Lebanon.

Really... Russia.... bring your " A Game"... this was a D- at best:)

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-26/211520-russia-lebanon-working-to-prevent-rebel-safe-haven.ashx#axzz2OaEQQ8Ra

BORDER CROSSINGS AND MORTAR ROUNDS IN DAMASCUS???

Two very interesting and important topic came up today.

One being the decision by Jordan's government to "temporally" close it's crossings into Syria and the other being Mortar rounds reaching downtown / central Damascus.

Why are these important topics?

First, let's address the issue of the Jordanian border crossings.

If you've been watching the news in the past few days, and you have noticed the reports of growing tensions in and near the Golan Heights.

The concept of the Islamic fundamentalist rebel groups gaining a foothold in that area worries more than just the Israelis.

Now, it's true the Jordanian government at face value is more worried about the ever-increasing numbers of refugees entering the Jordanian land, but true issue is the fear of radical infiltration and control of border crossings with Syria.

Syrian military's tactic of giving ground is left many of the border crossing locations in the hands of the rebels in most instances this implies in the hands of radical fundamentalist groups.

What the Golan Heights and Jordanian border crossings have in common is the strategic understanding that Syria no longer controls the country outside of its major cities.

The Rebels definition of victory is not held to the same standards as the Jordanians   or the Israelis are even the Turks.

With each passing day it becomes more and more evident that the destabilized countryside of Syria bordering with its neighbors has become the real issue at hand.

Mortars landing in central Damascus:

The second issue of the day, mortars landing in central Damascus, is worthy of discussion as well.

Mortar attacks in the city are nothing new, but mortar attacks reaching strategic targets in the central part of the city is!

Many of the reports spoke of over 25 rounds being fired nearly simultaneously at multiple targets.

This is not indicative of a hit-and-run single mortar tube team; the concept that has been the norm in the past.

Sustaining battery fire against precise tactical targets is an indication of just how comfortable and proficient the rebels have become mortar operations inside the capital.

The concept of "hit-and-run" tactical mortar teams laying down this amount of firepower is more than an ominous sign for the Syrian military.

It's easy to overlook the significance of this event today, but it's critical to understand what it may mean for the future, near future, for key targets in central Damascus.

If anyone understands this, it's the United Nations and that is exactly why we saw the announcement of the departure of many of their staff today!

With these two topics together, un-securable borders and the capital now under tactical level attacks with standoff weapons and you have all the ingredients for Syrian leadership more desperate than ever to strike back in some dramatic fashion expiration point

Where did the conversation go of "chemical weapons"?

It now seems before we get a definitive answer on what took place last week, we could see the next stage of the civil war unfold.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Jordan-closes-Syria-border-crossing-after-clashes-307697

SYRIA ... A SECOND FRONT WAR.. DID MIKATI JUST PUT IT INTO PLAY?

    Ok, everyone has been worried for well over a year now over the stability of Lebanon and the impact to an already critically unstable region a Lebanese crisis would have.

Let's get back to the basic simple principles of what is important about Lebanon and then perhaps we can place a value on the actions taken by Mikati.

First and foremost, Mikati and General Rifi are Sunni and don't think for a single second that is not the baseline of what this is all about.

Next; Hezbollah knows a crisis in the Lebanese government right now could easily turn into a shooting crisis for all of Lebanon; just look at the events in Tripoli over the past three days.

Israel understands more than anyone else the danger of a Lebanon in crisis stacked on top of the constant mind game of figuring out how Iran is attempting to "shape" events in Lebanon.

As for Mr Assad in Syria, he has two trains of thought he can travel.

1.   A "distraction" in Lebanon draws the Sunni fighters, at least some, from the Syrian battlefields into Lebanon; especially if they are dealing with the powerful Hezbollah military machine.

The issue here is he must get "permission" from Iran to instigate such and event and that begs the question, does Iran want such a thing at this point in time and if so....why????

If Iran allows Hezbollah to be fully engaged in a conflict inside of Lebanon, is the intent to draw the IDF into the fight perhaps to preempt an attack on Iran's nuclear program?

Short answer; start a "backfire" to prevent a complete Forrest Fire... I've talked about this in the past.

2.  Assad can demand of Hezbollah that Lebanon not turn into a shooting war because he needs every available asset from Hezbollah to prevent the fall of his own government.

Short answer, " The hell with Lebanon... help me stay in power"!!!

Good luck on this one, if he does chose this course... remember... Hezbollah works for Iran not Assad.

So, can the resignation of Mikati and his government really lead to a shooting war in Lebanon between the Sunni and the Shia?

My bet is, if anything it will limit the ability of the Lebanese government to keep a lid on issues along it's border with Syria and the tipping point of yet another conflict in Lebanon is not far away.... it may be here.

Oh by the way............does anyone really think Israel is overly concerned about Shia killing Sunni?

Can Hezbollah deal with the Sunni groups in the cities of Lebanon quickly enough, as they did a few years ago, that a full scale conflict is avoided?

In the cities...........perhaps........along the border.......no!!!

The Sunni combat units working in Syria all a thousand times more capable than they were when Hezbollah made  quick work of them inside Lebanon a few years ago.

How many of these units will turn and fight a Second Front War in Lebanon?

That is the question.

Can this pending crisis in Lebanon be contained to just these two factions fighting each other?

That is up to Iran...

Hezbollah rockets into Israel to force the Lebanese crisis onto Israel... that is the unknown... 

http://www.jpost.com/International/Lebanese-PM-resigns-over-dispute-with-Hezbollah-307463

THE BEGINNING OF "KURDISTAN" AND THE END OF SYRIA?

For well over a year now it has been abundantly clear that Turkish government was far more concerned with the renewed Kurdish movement in any sectarian conflict inside of Syria.

The concept of Sunnis fighting Shia and Turkish soil is far removed from the Turkish governments thought process, but the Kurdish independence issue is been front and center in Turkey for decades.

The Turkish leadership set out to neutralize this Kurdish drive for independence many, including myself, came to the conclusion that Turkey would be more than willing to sacrifice a slice of Syria and strike an oil deal with the Kurds for the sake of keeping the peace inside of Turkey.

From the Turkish government standpoint, they had everything to gain and very little to lose.

Oil equals profit and profit equals jobs and jobs equals social stability and that is exactly what Turkey was and is looking for.

The land that would have to be sacrificed not be Turkish soil, that of Syria, the nation that is well underway in the process of dividing into "buffer zones" once again.

Who is involved in this deal with the PKK?

You can be assured the Iranians and the Syrian government were not.

You can also be assured the czar sitting in Moscow is more than curious about where this new deal is heading.

Remember, the czar's kingdom is also based upon oil and gas expiration point

So, to the authors point in this article attached, this potential PKK deal with the Turks actually signal the beginning of the process of subdividing Syria?

Remember the Middle East is no different than any other part of the world.

As is always the case, perception is reality, especially in the Middle East.

If the Iranians and the regime in Syria truly believe that Turkey has struck a deal with the Kurds that deal entails Syrian land and Iraqi oil, then you can bet it will not quietly allow this process to succeed.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=105081

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/syrias-puppet-masters