THE GOLAN HEIGHTS.... WHAT IS THE ISSUE AND WHY?

As we continue to look at the issue of events in and around the Golan Heights, need to be focusing on who is creating this environment?

Is it the Syrian government's intention to create tensions in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Syrian rebel's intention to create tension in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Sunni radical fundamentalist units intention to create tensions in the Golan height?

Okay, you get the picture!

The issue is not the fact that tensions are growing in that region, but who is creating the tension and why!

Here's my stab at an answer.

I'm not convinced any of the parties involved is deliberately attempting to provoke an incident in the Golan Heights.

I grow more convinced with each passing day that the problem is based upon the lack of unified effort to ensure instance do not happen in the Golan Heights.

It's obvious the Israelis do not wish a confrontation in this area and is also even more obvious that the Israelis are preparing for potential confrontation in the same area.

Now, it's possible and maybe even highly probable that some splinter group, terrorist cell or cells, would take advantage of this control vacuum in the Golan Heights to stage a launching site for  operations into Israel.

I can almost guarantee you this is exactly the mindset that the Israeli military as of this moment in time.

Does this equate into the Syrian government condoning are supporting such an operation; probably not!

Some might argue that Assad would welcome the distraction of a limited Israeli/IDF/operation in that region in order to draw attention away from the conflict on Syrian soil and more importantly to draw Sunni radical fundamentalist groups resources into a battle with someone other than Assad's forces.

Personally, I think this concept is far-fetched.

The Golan Heights seems to be no different than many other regions bordering the Syrian conflict; increased lawlessness an opportunity waiting to happen.

Unlike the Turks and the Jordanians, Israel will remain far less tolerant of unexplained cross-border violence in the Golan Heights.

Although a deliberate action of provoking the Israelis may not be tactical plan of any one group at this moment in time, there are those who would leverage such an event if it were to happen; insert Iran here.

So, are the Golan Heights more dangerous than any other border region with Syria?

Yes!

You all sides truly understand the dangerous climate that continues to develop and the Golan Heights?

Again, the answer is yes.

Finally, our all parties involved working diligently to ensure that such an escalation does not take place?

I'm afraid the answer to that resides in Tehran; or as the old saying goes, "only the Shadow knows"!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/UN-concerned-Syria-war-spilling-over-into-Golan-307921

THE RUSSIANS GET A "D-" ON LEBANON!!!

                                                                                     

So.... The Russians.... Tsar Putin... is on the "side" of the current Lebanese government... a government that is in the tank for Assad and ruled by Hezbollah..... go figure!!!

Russia is just as proficient at reading Tea Leaves as the next country and they know all too well what time it is in Lebanon!

What really makes them sound foolish... foolish in the minds of the other Middle Eastern nations.... is the outrageous  comment that Lebanese  leadership is trying to prevent a safe haven for the Syrian Rebels.

What's even more laughable is the next comment on how these same "leaders" should not have outside / foreign interference!!!

Really????

Does that apply to Iran and Iraq and Russia when it come to the Syrian Regime?

We all know the answer to that one!!!

Now, truth in discloser, we all also accept the Foreign support the Rebels are receiving and so the criticism of Russia's statement must be somewhat muted.

The truth is, everyone that is involved in "supporting" ether side in Syria should reframe from making statements that simply make their government's look foolish.

Syria, besides being a Sectarian Civil War, is truly recognized as a regional conflict / proxy/ based upon world powers attempting to shape the fate of the once touted " Arab Spring"!!! Remember the Arab Spring????

Lebanon's government is completely incapable of preventing a Rebel base camp operations from existing on Lebanese land and everyone knows it..... including the Russians.

The timing of this Russian statement has everything to do with the events inside the Lebanese government this week.

The question becomes.... why.... what was the Tsar wishing to pass on to the people of the region?

My bet is, he knows the events in Lebanon are not favoring Assad... Iran or Hezbollah and so in someway this armature   statement is an attempt to shore up the Puppet government in Lebanon... a government that is, as of this week, completely inept.

All of us, including the Russians, understand the saverity of the situation in Lebanon and the Tsar really needs to have a better team working on his countries' strategic information operations dealing with Lebanon.

Really... Russia.... bring your " A Game"... this was a D- at best:)

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-26/211520-russia-lebanon-working-to-prevent-rebel-safe-haven.ashx#axzz2OaEQQ8Ra

BORDER CROSSINGS AND MORTAR ROUNDS IN DAMASCUS???

Two very interesting and important topic came up today.

One being the decision by Jordan's government to "temporally" close it's crossings into Syria and the other being Mortar rounds reaching downtown / central Damascus.

Why are these important topics?

First, let's address the issue of the Jordanian border crossings.

If you've been watching the news in the past few days, and you have noticed the reports of growing tensions in and near the Golan Heights.

The concept of the Islamic fundamentalist rebel groups gaining a foothold in that area worries more than just the Israelis.

Now, it's true the Jordanian government at face value is more worried about the ever-increasing numbers of refugees entering the Jordanian land, but true issue is the fear of radical infiltration and control of border crossings with Syria.

Syrian military's tactic of giving ground is left many of the border crossing locations in the hands of the rebels in most instances this implies in the hands of radical fundamentalist groups.

What the Golan Heights and Jordanian border crossings have in common is the strategic understanding that Syria no longer controls the country outside of its major cities.

The Rebels definition of victory is not held to the same standards as the Jordanians   or the Israelis are even the Turks.

With each passing day it becomes more and more evident that the destabilized countryside of Syria bordering with its neighbors has become the real issue at hand.

Mortars landing in central Damascus:

The second issue of the day, mortars landing in central Damascus, is worthy of discussion as well.

Mortar attacks in the city are nothing new, but mortar attacks reaching strategic targets in the central part of the city is!

Many of the reports spoke of over 25 rounds being fired nearly simultaneously at multiple targets.

This is not indicative of a hit-and-run single mortar tube team; the concept that has been the norm in the past.

Sustaining battery fire against precise tactical targets is an indication of just how comfortable and proficient the rebels have become mortar operations inside the capital.

The concept of "hit-and-run" tactical mortar teams laying down this amount of firepower is more than an ominous sign for the Syrian military.

It's easy to overlook the significance of this event today, but it's critical to understand what it may mean for the future, near future, for key targets in central Damascus.

If anyone understands this, it's the United Nations and that is exactly why we saw the announcement of the departure of many of their staff today!

With these two topics together, un-securable borders and the capital now under tactical level attacks with standoff weapons and you have all the ingredients for Syrian leadership more desperate than ever to strike back in some dramatic fashion expiration point

Where did the conversation go of "chemical weapons"?

It now seems before we get a definitive answer on what took place last week, we could see the next stage of the civil war unfold.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Jordan-closes-Syria-border-crossing-after-clashes-307697

SYRIA ... A SECOND FRONT WAR.. DID MIKATI JUST PUT IT INTO PLAY?

    Ok, everyone has been worried for well over a year now over the stability of Lebanon and the impact to an already critically unstable region a Lebanese crisis would have.

Let's get back to the basic simple principles of what is important about Lebanon and then perhaps we can place a value on the actions taken by Mikati.

First and foremost, Mikati and General Rifi are Sunni and don't think for a single second that is not the baseline of what this is all about.

Next; Hezbollah knows a crisis in the Lebanese government right now could easily turn into a shooting crisis for all of Lebanon; just look at the events in Tripoli over the past three days.

Israel understands more than anyone else the danger of a Lebanon in crisis stacked on top of the constant mind game of figuring out how Iran is attempting to "shape" events in Lebanon.

As for Mr Assad in Syria, he has two trains of thought he can travel.

1.   A "distraction" in Lebanon draws the Sunni fighters, at least some, from the Syrian battlefields into Lebanon; especially if they are dealing with the powerful Hezbollah military machine.

The issue here is he must get "permission" from Iran to instigate such and event and that begs the question, does Iran want such a thing at this point in time and if so....why????

If Iran allows Hezbollah to be fully engaged in a conflict inside of Lebanon, is the intent to draw the IDF into the fight perhaps to preempt an attack on Iran's nuclear program?

Short answer; start a "backfire" to prevent a complete Forrest Fire... I've talked about this in the past.

2.  Assad can demand of Hezbollah that Lebanon not turn into a shooting war because he needs every available asset from Hezbollah to prevent the fall of his own government.

Short answer, " The hell with Lebanon... help me stay in power"!!!

Good luck on this one, if he does chose this course... remember... Hezbollah works for Iran not Assad.

So, can the resignation of Mikati and his government really lead to a shooting war in Lebanon between the Sunni and the Shia?

My bet is, if anything it will limit the ability of the Lebanese government to keep a lid on issues along it's border with Syria and the tipping point of yet another conflict in Lebanon is not far away.... it may be here.

Oh by the way............does anyone really think Israel is overly concerned about Shia killing Sunni?

Can Hezbollah deal with the Sunni groups in the cities of Lebanon quickly enough, as they did a few years ago, that a full scale conflict is avoided?

In the cities...........perhaps........along the border.......no!!!

The Sunni combat units working in Syria all a thousand times more capable than they were when Hezbollah made  quick work of them inside Lebanon a few years ago.

How many of these units will turn and fight a Second Front War in Lebanon?

That is the question.

Can this pending crisis in Lebanon be contained to just these two factions fighting each other?

That is up to Iran...

Hezbollah rockets into Israel to force the Lebanese crisis onto Israel... that is the unknown... 

http://www.jpost.com/International/Lebanese-PM-resigns-over-dispute-with-Hezbollah-307463

THE BEGINNING OF "KURDISTAN" AND THE END OF SYRIA?

For well over a year now it has been abundantly clear that Turkish government was far more concerned with the renewed Kurdish movement in any sectarian conflict inside of Syria.

The concept of Sunnis fighting Shia and Turkish soil is far removed from the Turkish governments thought process, but the Kurdish independence issue is been front and center in Turkey for decades.

The Turkish leadership set out to neutralize this Kurdish drive for independence many, including myself, came to the conclusion that Turkey would be more than willing to sacrifice a slice of Syria and strike an oil deal with the Kurds for the sake of keeping the peace inside of Turkey.

From the Turkish government standpoint, they had everything to gain and very little to lose.

Oil equals profit and profit equals jobs and jobs equals social stability and that is exactly what Turkey was and is looking for.

The land that would have to be sacrificed not be Turkish soil, that of Syria, the nation that is well underway in the process of dividing into "buffer zones" once again.

Who is involved in this deal with the PKK?

You can be assured the Iranians and the Syrian government were not.

You can also be assured the czar sitting in Moscow is more than curious about where this new deal is heading.

Remember, the czar's kingdom is also based upon oil and gas expiration point

So, to the authors point in this article attached, this potential PKK deal with the Turks actually signal the beginning of the process of subdividing Syria?

Remember the Middle East is no different than any other part of the world.

As is always the case, perception is reality, especially in the Middle East.

If the Iranians and the regime in Syria truly believe that Turkey has struck a deal with the Kurds that deal entails Syrian land and Iraqi oil, then you can bet it will not quietly allow this process to succeed.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=105081

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/syrias-puppet-masters

HAS THE SYRIAN REDLINE BEEN CROSSED.. AND WHY?

Well, by this time, everyone out there has most likely heard the story of possible use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian conflict.

Most of the talk today  centered around, did it really happen and who did it?

I will tell you this, the ability to determine if it happened and what the agent used may have been is a fast and somewhat simplistic issue.

It must be assumed for months the ability to "detect" such an event has been in place in most of the most likely cities or locations based upon intelligence from multiple nation-state "agencies".

Did it happen and what was used, if it did happen, is known by now.

The question becomes what should the reaction be and how is a unified front projected to if the news is "confirmed"?

Upon hearing this story  this morning, one item really jumped out at me.

Why did the Russians jump on the Assad side of the argument so quickly?

It's almost as if the statement was ready to be "briefed" as soon as the story broke?

Odd??

Yes..

Disturbing and ominous is even a better description of what I was thinking.

Why was the Russian reaction not one of, "Let's first confirm this accusation before we make any attempts and placing responsibility"?

Remember what I have been saying about the use of WMDs all along.

There is absolutely no way the Assad government will execute such an event without "buy in" from Iran and Russia.

Could this explain the Russian nearly immediate response?

Ok, lets assume for the sake of argument, an "agent" was utilized today.

Why?

Why now?

What is the "End State" of such an event?

As to "why"; I am convinced the question is more appropriate if we say, "why now"?

Is it based on the President of the United States trip to the region?

I would doubt it simply because I'm not sure why crossing the "redline" as the US President was in the region would make any difference.

Could it be to embarrass him?

Unlikely!

Could it be to send him a "message"?

Again, unlikely... What would that message be?

More importantly, who would that proposed "message" be from...really????

Assad.... Iran ..... Putin??

Again, what would be the goal of such a message?

Before, we go any further, lets put to bed any notion the Rebels took this yet unconfirmed action.

If the weapon was delivered by a rocket, it would mean the Rebels somehow took control of a fully functional Chemical capable missile and had the knowledge and capability to aim and launch it.

Highly unlikely to say the least.

Would the Rebels use a Chemical weapon on their own people just to frame Assad?

Do they have any history of doing such a act in the past two years???

Not that I am aware of.

Ok, back to the real issue!

Why?

Here is my theory.

Assad has made a limited attempt to show the world just how serious he is about keeping power and he has the backing of Iran and Russia in his actions.

Yep... my bet is the Russians and the Iranians knew it was going to take place and most likely set the "limits" on how it would happen?

Why just one attack?

Why just one location?

Because it's a "message"... indeed a warning!!!

The gamble by the Russians and the Iranians is this; the West will not react for just one strike... just "limited action"!!

Ok, as you ponder this puzzle, here is yet another issue to take into consideration.

Is Syria preparing to conduct limited actions in Lebanon?

The stories out of Lebanon today of Syrian troops clearing minefields along the Lebanese border and bulldozing new approaches is tactically a indication of a pending assault!!!!

The Syrian Air Force strikes along the Lebanese border fall right in line with my "warning" theory.

It  all comes down to this.

Assad has been given a green light to step up the pressure with the assumption that limited actions will negate Western response.

You can bet this....

The confirmation process has already taken place and the answer is known.

What becomes the "response" and what is the response to the "response".

For over a year now, we have talked about such a day.

Could it be that such a day has taken place?

Can this be written off as just a missile strike on a Chlorine tank... again???

Midnight oil burns in the Pentagon and the halls of our Allies.

Can everyone in the region be convinced to "sing the same song or tell the same "story"?

More importantly, can the government of Lebanon keep the lid on an outraged public sitting on the edge of a Sectarian Civil War?

Yet another chapter has been set in motion for the entire region and I'm not sure who has the ability to control the next move.

rttp://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

AGAIN. THE RUMORS OF "CRACKS" IN HEZBOLLAH'S ARMOR??

As you can all see, I am staying on the topic of Lebanon and the tensions around it.

Ok, the concept of "tensions" inside the Hezbollah camp is not really earth shattering news.

Regardless of political or religious similarities, blood, especially in the Middle East, is far more powerful than any other level of "relationship".

The people of Ballebek Hermel are not that much different than any other community of "common folk" in the world.

What they strive for is a decent daily existence and safety for their loved ones.

Here is the problem in this town, and again it's like any other small, underdeveloped location in the world today, the poor are typically defenseless and those with the most firepower, in this case Hezbollah, well.... they call the shots.

Are the people mentioned in this story zelots for Hezbollah?

No!!

Do they need Hezbollah at times to keep order in their small part of the world?

Unfortunately yes!!!!

Now, if this possible "rift" is really leading to some attempt at political representation, then Hezbollah's leaders will be the first to tear it down.

The tragedy is simple.

The people who wish only to be left alone and not be dragged into a sectarian bloodbath between the Hezbollah / Shia and the Sunia radical groups will have to turn to arming themselves are those amongst them who will advocate such actions.

The Lebanese government is not capable of providing for these people and they all know.

These people, like most people in this world, just want a simple life, but Hezbollah are other radical elements who no one seems to be able to control will do what they always do... abuse these people and steal their men for the bloodbaths.. all in the name of a religion none of them truly understand.

Yes, blood is thicker than religion, but unarmed "blood / family " is no match for armed religious zealots.

The future for the people of Baalbek-Hermel is bleak as they slowly become yet more Pawns in the regional insanity.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-12/209716-baalbek-hermel-voices-slam-hezbollahs-syria-involvement.ashx#axzz2NHbznXp4