SYRIA ... A SECOND FRONT WAR.. DID MIKATI JUST PUT IT INTO PLAY?

    Ok, everyone has been worried for well over a year now over the stability of Lebanon and the impact to an already critically unstable region a Lebanese crisis would have.

Let's get back to the basic simple principles of what is important about Lebanon and then perhaps we can place a value on the actions taken by Mikati.

First and foremost, Mikati and General Rifi are Sunni and don't think for a single second that is not the baseline of what this is all about.

Next; Hezbollah knows a crisis in the Lebanese government right now could easily turn into a shooting crisis for all of Lebanon; just look at the events in Tripoli over the past three days.

Israel understands more than anyone else the danger of a Lebanon in crisis stacked on top of the constant mind game of figuring out how Iran is attempting to "shape" events in Lebanon.

As for Mr Assad in Syria, he has two trains of thought he can travel.

1.   A "distraction" in Lebanon draws the Sunni fighters, at least some, from the Syrian battlefields into Lebanon; especially if they are dealing with the powerful Hezbollah military machine.

The issue here is he must get "permission" from Iran to instigate such and event and that begs the question, does Iran want such a thing at this point in time and if so....why????

If Iran allows Hezbollah to be fully engaged in a conflict inside of Lebanon, is the intent to draw the IDF into the fight perhaps to preempt an attack on Iran's nuclear program?

Short answer; start a "backfire" to prevent a complete Forrest Fire... I've talked about this in the past.

2.  Assad can demand of Hezbollah that Lebanon not turn into a shooting war because he needs every available asset from Hezbollah to prevent the fall of his own government.

Short answer, " The hell with Lebanon... help me stay in power"!!!

Good luck on this one, if he does chose this course... remember... Hezbollah works for Iran not Assad.

So, can the resignation of Mikati and his government really lead to a shooting war in Lebanon between the Sunni and the Shia?

My bet is, if anything it will limit the ability of the Lebanese government to keep a lid on issues along it's border with Syria and the tipping point of yet another conflict in Lebanon is not far away.... it may be here.

Oh by the way............does anyone really think Israel is overly concerned about Shia killing Sunni?

Can Hezbollah deal with the Sunni groups in the cities of Lebanon quickly enough, as they did a few years ago, that a full scale conflict is avoided?

In the cities...........perhaps........along the border.......no!!!

The Sunni combat units working in Syria all a thousand times more capable than they were when Hezbollah made  quick work of them inside Lebanon a few years ago.

How many of these units will turn and fight a Second Front War in Lebanon?

That is the question.

Can this pending crisis in Lebanon be contained to just these two factions fighting each other?

That is up to Iran...

Hezbollah rockets into Israel to force the Lebanese crisis onto Israel... that is the unknown... 

http://www.jpost.com/International/Lebanese-PM-resigns-over-dispute-with-Hezbollah-307463

THE BEGINNING OF "KURDISTAN" AND THE END OF SYRIA?

For well over a year now it has been abundantly clear that Turkish government was far more concerned with the renewed Kurdish movement in any sectarian conflict inside of Syria.

The concept of Sunnis fighting Shia and Turkish soil is far removed from the Turkish governments thought process, but the Kurdish independence issue is been front and center in Turkey for decades.

The Turkish leadership set out to neutralize this Kurdish drive for independence many, including myself, came to the conclusion that Turkey would be more than willing to sacrifice a slice of Syria and strike an oil deal with the Kurds for the sake of keeping the peace inside of Turkey.

From the Turkish government standpoint, they had everything to gain and very little to lose.

Oil equals profit and profit equals jobs and jobs equals social stability and that is exactly what Turkey was and is looking for.

The land that would have to be sacrificed not be Turkish soil, that of Syria, the nation that is well underway in the process of dividing into "buffer zones" once again.

Who is involved in this deal with the PKK?

You can be assured the Iranians and the Syrian government were not.

You can also be assured the czar sitting in Moscow is more than curious about where this new deal is heading.

Remember, the czar's kingdom is also based upon oil and gas expiration point

So, to the authors point in this article attached, this potential PKK deal with the Turks actually signal the beginning of the process of subdividing Syria?

Remember the Middle East is no different than any other part of the world.

As is always the case, perception is reality, especially in the Middle East.

If the Iranians and the regime in Syria truly believe that Turkey has struck a deal with the Kurds that deal entails Syrian land and Iraqi oil, then you can bet it will not quietly allow this process to succeed.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=105081

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/syrias-puppet-masters

HAS THE SYRIAN REDLINE BEEN CROSSED.. AND WHY?

Well, by this time, everyone out there has most likely heard the story of possible use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian conflict.

Most of the talk today  centered around, did it really happen and who did it?

I will tell you this, the ability to determine if it happened and what the agent used may have been is a fast and somewhat simplistic issue.

It must be assumed for months the ability to "detect" such an event has been in place in most of the most likely cities or locations based upon intelligence from multiple nation-state "agencies".

Did it happen and what was used, if it did happen, is known by now.

The question becomes what should the reaction be and how is a unified front projected to if the news is "confirmed"?

Upon hearing this story  this morning, one item really jumped out at me.

Why did the Russians jump on the Assad side of the argument so quickly?

It's almost as if the statement was ready to be "briefed" as soon as the story broke?

Odd??

Yes..

Disturbing and ominous is even a better description of what I was thinking.

Why was the Russian reaction not one of, "Let's first confirm this accusation before we make any attempts and placing responsibility"?

Remember what I have been saying about the use of WMDs all along.

There is absolutely no way the Assad government will execute such an event without "buy in" from Iran and Russia.

Could this explain the Russian nearly immediate response?

Ok, lets assume for the sake of argument, an "agent" was utilized today.

Why?

Why now?

What is the "End State" of such an event?

As to "why"; I am convinced the question is more appropriate if we say, "why now"?

Is it based on the President of the United States trip to the region?

I would doubt it simply because I'm not sure why crossing the "redline" as the US President was in the region would make any difference.

Could it be to embarrass him?

Unlikely!

Could it be to send him a "message"?

Again, unlikely... What would that message be?

More importantly, who would that proposed "message" be from...really????

Assad.... Iran ..... Putin??

Again, what would be the goal of such a message?

Before, we go any further, lets put to bed any notion the Rebels took this yet unconfirmed action.

If the weapon was delivered by a rocket, it would mean the Rebels somehow took control of a fully functional Chemical capable missile and had the knowledge and capability to aim and launch it.

Highly unlikely to say the least.

Would the Rebels use a Chemical weapon on their own people just to frame Assad?

Do they have any history of doing such a act in the past two years???

Not that I am aware of.

Ok, back to the real issue!

Why?

Here is my theory.

Assad has made a limited attempt to show the world just how serious he is about keeping power and he has the backing of Iran and Russia in his actions.

Yep... my bet is the Russians and the Iranians knew it was going to take place and most likely set the "limits" on how it would happen?

Why just one attack?

Why just one location?

Because it's a "message"... indeed a warning!!!

The gamble by the Russians and the Iranians is this; the West will not react for just one strike... just "limited action"!!

Ok, as you ponder this puzzle, here is yet another issue to take into consideration.

Is Syria preparing to conduct limited actions in Lebanon?

The stories out of Lebanon today of Syrian troops clearing minefields along the Lebanese border and bulldozing new approaches is tactically a indication of a pending assault!!!!

The Syrian Air Force strikes along the Lebanese border fall right in line with my "warning" theory.

It  all comes down to this.

Assad has been given a green light to step up the pressure with the assumption that limited actions will negate Western response.

You can bet this....

The confirmation process has already taken place and the answer is known.

What becomes the "response" and what is the response to the "response".

For over a year now, we have talked about such a day.

Could it be that such a day has taken place?

Can this be written off as just a missile strike on a Chlorine tank... again???

Midnight oil burns in the Pentagon and the halls of our Allies.

Can everyone in the region be convinced to "sing the same song or tell the same "story"?

More importantly, can the government of Lebanon keep the lid on an outraged public sitting on the edge of a Sectarian Civil War?

Yet another chapter has been set in motion for the entire region and I'm not sure who has the ability to control the next move.

rttp://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

AGAIN. THE RUMORS OF "CRACKS" IN HEZBOLLAH'S ARMOR??

As you can all see, I am staying on the topic of Lebanon and the tensions around it.

Ok, the concept of "tensions" inside the Hezbollah camp is not really earth shattering news.

Regardless of political or religious similarities, blood, especially in the Middle East, is far more powerful than any other level of "relationship".

The people of Ballebek Hermel are not that much different than any other community of "common folk" in the world.

What they strive for is a decent daily existence and safety for their loved ones.

Here is the problem in this town, and again it's like any other small, underdeveloped location in the world today, the poor are typically defenseless and those with the most firepower, in this case Hezbollah, well.... they call the shots.

Are the people mentioned in this story zelots for Hezbollah?

No!!

Do they need Hezbollah at times to keep order in their small part of the world?

Unfortunately yes!!!!

Now, if this possible "rift" is really leading to some attempt at political representation, then Hezbollah's leaders will be the first to tear it down.

The tragedy is simple.

The people who wish only to be left alone and not be dragged into a sectarian bloodbath between the Hezbollah / Shia and the Sunia radical groups will have to turn to arming themselves are those amongst them who will advocate such actions.

The Lebanese government is not capable of providing for these people and they all know.

These people, like most people in this world, just want a simple life, but Hezbollah are other radical elements who no one seems to be able to control will do what they always do... abuse these people and steal their men for the bloodbaths.. all in the name of a religion none of them truly understand.

Yes, blood is thicker than religion, but unarmed "blood / family " is no match for armed religious zealots.

The future for the people of Baalbek-Hermel is bleak as they slowly become yet more Pawns in the regional insanity.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-12/209716-baalbek-hermel-voices-slam-hezbollahs-syria-involvement.ashx#axzz2NHbznXp4

HEZBOLLAH / JABHAT AL-NUSRA... IT'S MORE THAN THAT!!

 Attached is a great article that, in my opinion, misses the most important theory as to why this conflict is going to take place.

The concept that both sides of this pending fight have a "Master Plan" as to when and how this event will take place gives, in my opinion, far too much credit to both.

In reality, the true issue is the simple fact that no one has the ability to prevent it from taking place.

Forget the concept of a Master Plan for a NUSRA ..HEZBOLLAH fight and think more along the lines of small, factional groups on the Sunni side simply provoking localized clashes with little "Master Planning" from any key leadership.

Does Iran want a conflict to take place right now that would spell Civil War for Lebanon?

Does Saudi or Egypt or the West?

Would any of these isolate, nearly street level units, have the mindset to listen to anyone's guidance?

Here is the reality!!

The lawless landscape of Syria has become a modern day setting for " Mad Max" than anyone wants to admit.

Inadvertent clashes spinning into a regional conflict; that's the fear and has been for almost two years.  

Now, are "regional players" ready for such an event?

Does Iran have a plan for a Lebanon on fire?

Does Egypt..... Turkey.... Jordan.... the GCC????

Don't count on it.

The ability to control anything going on in or around Syria becomes more and more distant with each passing day.

Lebanon is facing a calamity they are nearly powerless to prevent..

Jordan will watch in a complete state of horror as Lebanon falls into  turmoil all the while imploring the GCC members to prevent an event they have no chance or perhaps even desire to stop!!

It's sounds like a broken record to almost all of us who watch the region, but the truth will not go away.

A Sunni / Shia conflict inside of Lebanon is nearly unavoidable.

The other fact that remains unchanged, is the issue of what are the regional players willing and more importantly able to do once this travesty takes place?

Last but certainly not least..... what is Israel willing to put up with?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/jabhat-al-nusra-hezbollah-confrontation.html

GOLAN HEIGHTS AND THE SYRIAN CONFLICT. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

let me start by stating I doubt seriously the UN and it's contributing partners are considering pulling the Peace Keeping Mission after this weeks kidnapping event.

The fact the individuals were returned so quickly is a strong indication of just how important everyone involved realize this event was.

Now, there's no mistaking you and marked vehicles and individuals anyone other than what they truly are, so the fact that they were taken not be ruled as a "mistake".

What troubles everyone is the realization that this action is an indication of just how leaderless this region of Syria has become.

There's been a great deal of talk about the Syrian military troops that had been removed from this area and the fact that it would create a "vacuum" which Israel's enemies could quickly fill.

One theory I think we can put the bed quickly is the concept that this action took place in order to create a vacuum on the Israeli border for Israelis enemies be in position to conduct operations inside of Israel.

Even if this was the intent of some Islamic fundamentalist/Palestinian/operational group, it obviously did not have the support from their higher authorities.

In short, it is my opinion that a small economist group took it upon themselves to put their name on the map by kidnapping group of unarmed United Nations peacekeepers; in fact they did just that for no one had heard of their group prior to this event, at least no one in the open press.

So what does this event really mean to us?

Does it indicate just how destabilize the Syrian border has become in the Golan Heights?

Absolutely!

Does it indicate Israel will have to further deploy the IDF in order to ensure its safety?

The answer is, to some degree yes.

Another important question needs to be asked is the issue of, id this event change anything?

I'm sure it has rekindled the conversation of United Nations peacekeeper safety, especially unarmed peacekeepers; the concept that I find utterly ridiculous myself!

In the eyes of the Israelis, as emotional as this event may have become, they will not overreact.

With the current issues in Syria and the pending election crisis in Lebanon and now the new fires in Egypt, this kidnapping event will quickly fall from the headlines.

The attached article speaks to the IDF's training exercises include its reserve forces for pending as blah operations and I find that topic far more important in this blip on the UN radar.

No one should doubt that the Israelis understand the vulnerabilities of Hezbollah this moment in time and the strategic value of their neutralization to the Iranian government.

Simply put, Hezbollah is vulnerable and they know it and the Iranians know and most importantly the Israelis know it.

The election law controversy Lebanon is easily the spark that could ignite a Sunni Shia civil war yet again; simply put it could be the excuse needed by those who would like to see this event take place.

Oddly enough I'm not convinced at this moment in time that group includes the Israelis.

How the Israelis deal with Hezbollah and one poorly when they deal with Hezbollah the topic only the IDF and its leadership truly knows.

If conflict would break out in Lebanon, with that become the trigger for the IDF to engage Hezbollah forces?

Would Israel take the opportunity of chaos in Lebanon to pull away most important proxy fighter of the Iranian government.

Hezbollah must avoid violence in Lebanon at all cost, but the ability to do so is fading fast.

In my opinion the time has come to put a great deal of effort reviewing the classic "second and third order effects" and the "law of unintended consequences"!

Winter weather soon to leave the region and the warmth of spring makes it conducive for young men to fight even more.

With the heat of the day comes the anger of prejudice and bigotry and hopelessness and these are the major ingredients in the conflicted Arias  of Lebanon.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=305748

ARE THE WHEELS COMING OFF THE MORSI' BUS?? AGAIN???

I've said this time and time again about Mr. Morrissey, but I will say it again; he continues to realize it is far easier to complain and ridicule that is to lead!

It's fairly common knowledge that the Egyptian military is at best "uncomfortable" in totally supporting the current government of Egypt; and in reality the Muslim brotherhood.

Today's announcement that the Egyptian police are in fact going on strike in several key cities is only compounded by the reality that the Egyptian military is not in the Morsi camp.

As if this news was not bad enough for the current Egyptian government, today's announcement by the Egyptian electoral commission that the elections that Mr. Morsi were counting on have now been indefinitely postponed can only be categorized as a disaster!

Is becoming more and more apparent that Morsi's control of Egypt is slipping away.

Leftists and socialist and secretarial members of the Egyptian society may truly be seeing a window of opportunity to deal with the Muslim brotherhood.

The danger for Egypt and its president is the reality that the Islamist fundamentalist also smell "blood in the water" and its Morsi' blood they smell!

For all the social trauma that may be taking place in Egypt at this moment in time, the economic turbulence is not far behind.

Not only does the Egyptian president have the social unrest breathing down his neck, but he also has the IMF placing nearly impossible requirements upon his governments economic actions.

Simply put, Egypt is once again is unstable and leaderless as it ever has been in the past two years.

With the way things are going, how much longer before we begin to hear people saying "I remember the days of Mubarak and they weren't that bad"!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/03/2013372101110747.html

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/mena/egypt-police-strike-want-out-of-politics