SPILLOVER... IRAQ TAKES A CHANCE!!!

  So, Syrian soldiers were killed on Iraqi soil today?

Allegedly, Iraqi forces were also killed in this ambush expiration point

Is it news that Iraqi forces are supporting Syrian regular military?

Obviously the answer is no.

Is it new that the Syrian rebels\freedom fighters\when ambush Syrian regulars on a rocky land?

Yes it is!

Last week the issue was Hezbollah forces operating along and inside of the Lebanese border and this week it is now Syrian forces operating and fighting from Iraqi soil.

So, it's no wonder once again the topic at the United Nations today was the overwhelming fear of a "spreading conflict".

No one truly believes that this event on Iraqi land is the opening salvo of Iraqi regular forces supporting Syrian regime.

But, is yet another indication of how volatile the region has become.

Rounds have fallen in Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon so the event stated above although alarming is not the beginning of a greater conflict.

The ability to contain conflict within the borders of Syria is not an issue of keeping other nationstates out of the fight as much as it is keeping them from overreacting to embarrassing situations such as the one that took place on Iraqi land.

I am still very condensed that none of Syria's neighbors truly wish to be involved in the conflict that engulf Syria, but sending the right message involves the fine art of not over or under reacting.

Is newsworthy is this event may have been, I'm still convinced the true issue at hand is Lebanon and the actions of Hezbollah wrapped in a Shia Sunni conflict.

Simply put, this Iraqi event is newsworthy for a day or so, but in the end is simply just another indication of how fluid events in Syria truly are.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21658859

LEBANON.. HOLDING ON, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

I continue to make the situation in Lebanon the centerpiece of my comments on the Middle East and for good reason.

As I and many others have stated for over a year now,  the reality of a Sectarian conflict in Lebanon is event that will plunge the region into a real crisis.

Sheikh Ahmad Assir continues to be the primary trigger for any potential sectarian civil war.

The election law continues to be the emotional topic that polarizes both sides of the Lebanese society.

These two issues continue to develop "the perfect storm" environment for Lebanon.

Hezbollah's desperate attempt to blame the West for the destabilizing environment in Lebanon is falling on deaf ears.

The simple fact of the matter is a growing number of fo Sunni llowers of Assir are growing more and more confident that the time is right to push the Shia Hezbollah out of Lebanon.

Lebanon has two potential triggers for open hostilities.

One, would be the delay of the elections based upon a stalemate on the  controversial election law issue.

The second  would be an open conflict between the followers of Assir and the backers of Hezbollah.

As to who is to blame for continually destabilizing Lebanon, that answer may soon be irrelevant.

Prevention will soon give way to the reality of "limitation"!

Limiting the damage of the sectarian conflict in Lebanon could prove to be just as difficult as preventing the event itself from taking place.

It's true, that some quietly are hopeful this might take place, such as the present of Syria.

It's also true that many are praying this crisis does not take place expiration point

The fate of Lebanon is and remains in the hands of the Lebanese people, tensions have risen to the point that determining who starts the conflict now be difficult to determine, but also become nearly impossible to prevent.

Simply put, Lebanon is closer to the edge and has been in there is not a lot of room left.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/Mar-04/208702-khalil-calls-on-citizens-to-protect-lebanese-resistance.ashx#axzz2MXMgYi62

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-04/208705-berri-rules-out-elections-without-new-electoral-law.ashx#axzz2MXMgYi62

A THIRD INTIFADA AND AN EXPLOSIVE  LEBANON!!!!

For the past several days have I've been watching two potentially explosive events unfold in the Middle East.

Both are truly issues that had been simmering for quite some time, yet both seem to be rising to a boiling point nearly simultaneously.

The reality that the unification of Fatah and Hamas is becoming more and more a distant dream and the fact that both Israel and the GCC nations are content with this result is all leading to a boiling point in both Gaza and the West Bank.

As dangerous, ominous, as this Palestinian issue may be, the potential of a sectarian civil war in Lebanon actually overshadows this Palestinian meltdown.

Rumors over the past few days dealing with the overall leadership of Hezbollah, Nasrallah's health and the alleged attack on his number two man inside of Syria, have created an environment that Lebanon seems ill prepared to deal with.

The situation in Lebanon has not changed.

The Sunni/Shia hostilities could be reaching a boiling point that may be impossible to contain.

The issue of electoral law conflict inside of Lebanon accompanied by the open threats of hostilities towards each other is pushing Lebanon to the brink.

Point well taken today in many discussions was the simple reality that many of those who in the past have spent the energy in the capital to keep Lebanon from exploding into its historical civil wars, just don't have the wherewithal to deal with the Lebanese issue simultaneously with Syria, Egypt, Iran etc. etc.....

Simply put, those that prevented Lebanon from exploding in the past you not seem to be prepared to prevent it from happening this time around.

So, the threat of a third intifada nearly simultaneously taking place as the spread of the sectarian civil war into Lebanon is now moreover threat than any time in recent history.

Is dangerous and complex as this may be to understand, just imagine what this must mean to the Israeli government and the positioning of the IDF?

Hamas and Fatah are locked in a potentially dangerous power struggle surrounded by even more radical Islamic fundamentalist groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad while all the time Shia and Sunni inside of Lebanon pair for open conflict.

If you think this sounds like a recipe for disaster, you're absolutely right expiration point

So what is the solution?

How do we avoid to catastrophic events happening nearly simultaneously stacked on top of the tragedy called Syria?

Well, this is a classic example of being bettered asking questions and giving answers.

Every day the Middle East shows the world new twist in greater dangers not only to the region but to the overall health of the world economy.

If the old superpowers not pulling in the same direction on this one, that I don't see how all of this ends in a peaceful manner.

Oh yeah, in the middle of all this sits in Egypt on the edge of crisis yet again!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hasan-nasrallah-sick-hezbollah-lebanon-electoral-law.html

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hamas-figure-salah-bardawil-interview.html

GAZA TUNNELS!!!! THE STORY GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING!!

Several new stories out of the Middle East were of interest today, but the issue of the tunnels from Egypt into Gaza, in my opinion, is the real news story.

As I talked about last week, Egyptian support toward the tunnel operations controlled by Hamas has become more than just an interesting exploit.

Once we get past the announcement by the Egyptian government to "destroy", who knows what that really means, the tunnels leading in the Gaza from Egypt, the real question becomes why?

Why, was the question when we spoke of this topic last week; why did Egypt apparently change his mind toward supporting some of the Hamas operations into Gaza?

The theory that two-way flow of weapons leading to the hostile actions in the Sinai, in my opinion, really doesn't hold water.

Weapons going into the Sinai into the hands of Islamic fundamentalist organizations that oppose even the current government Egypt are flowing from Africa not backwards back out of Gaza.

The concept that a chosen few of Hamas tunnel controllers were being targeted by the Egyptian government had some validity.

But, with Egyptian announcement of the pending destruction of all the tunnels, again I doubt that will really happen, it's become apparent whatever the issue was aggravating Egyptians has gotten worse.

But, let's assume for a minute the Egyptians really do begin a campaign of destroying the tunnels in Gaza.

What does this mean Hamas and what does it mean to the people of Gaza?

Logistically it will quickly become a nightmare for the people of Gaza unless of course the Egyptians open the above ground roadways.

It doesn't seem possible the Egyptian government would knowingly punish the population of the Gaza Strip by limiting such support operations is the tunnels provide regardless of the weapons movement, unless of course Egyptians intended to subsidize commerce in another manner.

One thing is for sure, Hamas leaders the control tunnel operations in the Gaza was simply be furious with this announcement from the Egyptian government.

So, what's the message here Western Mark

Is Mr. Morsi sending a message to Hamas over his aggravation with the lack of effort towards  the unification process with Fatah?

Is Mr. Morsi punishing Hamas?

Does this imply that Mr. Morsi holds Mr. Abbas and higher standing?

There's an old saying United States from the state of Missouri; "I'm from the show me state"!

When I see the Egyptian military actively destroying the tunnels leading in the Gaza, all of them not just selected ones that belonged Hamas members were "bucking the system", that I will truly believe that Egypt\Mr.Morsi is making life painful for Hamas.

Now, before we begin to believe such actions out of the Egyptian government, we need to consider the actions of the Egyptian military and their lack of "guidance" from Mr. Morsi.

Simply put, who sinned the message here Egyptian government with Egyptian military?

If the destruction really does begin to take place, but my bet is on the Egyptian military.

If the destruction is limited or somehow negotiated, in my opinion would be Mr.Morsi is once again playing games in the world of international politics.

If this is true, I'm not sure Mr. Morsi as the time and the energy to be so involved with Hamas movement given the instability inside of his own country.

Where the Egyptians up to?

Is it Mr. Morsi or is it Egyptian military?

Let's just watch for a few days and make up our mind then expiration point

  http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201322619219970812.html

SO HOW DID JARADAT REALLY DIE AND DOES IT REALLY MATTER?

Arafat Jaradat died in Israeli custody that is an undeniable fact, but how he died, is where the truth may fall victim to convenience.

It's no mystery that Hamas and Fatah continue to struggle for the leadership position in the Palestinian statehood issue.

Waiting for an event such as the tragic death of this young man is something that Hamas is notoriously famous for taking advantage of.

Developing a scenario where Abbas once again appears to be incapable of protecting the Palestinian movement is the desire of Hamas.

As is often said in the world of politics, "never failed to take advantage of a good disaster"!

Is Hamas out to create open hostilities with the Israeli government?

Is this truly Hamas is attempted a third intifada?

Is a third intifada a Hamas tool of Abbas's downfall?

Are the Israelis doing whatever it takes to prevent the potential of a third intifada?

Is Hamas or Fatah capable of controlling the youthful violence of the Palestinians?

If the fears that Abbas could lose control, is there also a fear that even Hamas can gain control?

What is the purpose of trying to structure these protest other than the continuous one-upsmanship between Hamas and Fatah?

A few months ago, Mr Morsi attempted to take advantage of the youthful protest and he quickly found out how little control he truly had over the Egyptian people.

If Hamas and Fatah are not careful, they can learn the same lesson that the Egyptian leader did.

So, the underlying question seems to be is this event going to lead to a third intifada?

Fortunately, the answer to that question lies more with the Israeli leadership that it does the Palestinians.

Yes, this young man died in Israeli custody, but his death seems to be nothing more than a tool in the ongoing power struggle within the Palestinian movement; how pathetic!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013224184142611721.html

A DISTURBANCE IN THE "FORCE"????

If Yoda was in charge of negotiations with the SNC, I think his commentary would have been "a disturbance in the force I feel"!

There are probably several academic level ways of discussing what this "pullout" from the pending negotiations is based upon, but the fact that it's Friday night and I'm not an academic, let's keep this real simple and even better short!

It's been fairly obvious for some time now that the so-called leaders in exile have very little in common with those individuals are actually fighting the battles street to street house to house in the major cities of Syria.

I find it very likely that these so-called leaders are beginning to understand the damage that will be done to their reputation and to their movement if it becomes more than obvious the fighters/rebels in Syria are not marching to the drum of a group of people drinking tea and sleeping comfortably air-conditioned buildings outside of Syria.

Is my belief the SNC or at least key members of it have decided they must begin to show some resistance to open allegiance to the "West"!

The issue of the casualties of Aleppo is a façade the SNC has decided to draw a line on.

If the SNC was "outraged" with the rest of world's response to the deaths and Aleppo, then this outrage should taken place a year and a half ago.

That's not the issue.

It is very possible many key members of the SNC are beginning to realize their only future and having anything to say in the new government of Syria will be based upon your acceptance and support of the true rebels fighting for serious freedom.

Long story short, the SNC's beginning to change sides based upon the simple act of survival.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201322218202590207.html

WHAT IS HEZBOLLAH UP TO AND WHY?

As I continued to read the stories today about Hezbollah's actions in these villages along the Lebanese Syrian border, and became more and more concerned for what could really be taking place here.

As the attached article states, the territory in question is tactically and strategically and emotionally important Hezbollah.

Having said that, could there be more to the events are unfolding on Lebanese border?

To those that follow events in the region, let me pose a question.

What if............ what if Syria was attempting to open "second front" for the rebels to contend with?

Is there a possibility that the Syrian government and Iran are becoming desperate enough that the utilization of Hezbollah forces in the open has become a viable option?

I can assure you that Hezbollah  is a far more capable fighting force than the depleted and emotionally exhausted units of the Syrian military.

This week has seen the confirmation of far more advanced weapons going into the hands of the rebels and the impact of these weapons is being felt on a daily basis throughout Syria.

Some of last weeks and this weeks fighting in Damascus has resulted in the Syrian government beginning to truly realize that Damascus itself could fall or at best be divided in two.

In the tactics of conflict, is an absolute truth that enemy pulled into separate directions is far less capable than enemy allowed to concentrate on one objective.

Now, introducing Hezbollah forces in to this conflict without the world opinion blaming the Syrian government or  Hezbollah  leadership is a tricky procedure.

Realizing the aggressive nature of some of the more fanatical rebel organizations provides or potentially provides Syrian government with the "bait" that it needs for this operation.

Allowing the Shia Hezbollah forces to be seen simply defending defenseless Shia villagers from the fanatical rebels is obviously the picture the Syrian government would like to paint.

Once the reason for the conflict is established, the Hezbollah forces could dramatically change the battlefield environment for the rebel forces and this could be accomplished without an accusation of Iranian involvement.

Simply put, Hezbollah could be seen as the "protector" of Shia Lebanese citizens living on the border of Syria.

Everyone fully understands that this conflict could easily spiral out of control and spread even into Lebanon itself.

If the rebel forces are drawn into a sustaining conflict with well-organized, well-equipped and extremely capable Hezbollah units, then how effective with those same rebel units be in the siege of Damascus?

Am I grasping at straws here; perhaps!

As catastrophic is this concept might become, in the eyes of some opportunity could be knocking.

A Hezbollah force drawn into sustaining conflict with an ever more powerful rebels force with both sides being wrapped in sectarian conflict is an event that simply must deplete Hezbollah's capabilities to some degree.

But once again, the danger of such a plan on Iran and serious part is the territory where this conflict would take place.

If it is not the intention of Iran to draw Israel and to the conflict, than any operational actions by Hezbollah forces must be confined to area does not draw the anger of the IDF.

Okay, this theory may be a stretch, but the idea that this Sunni rebels are openly threatening to attack the Shia Hezbollah cannot be overlooked.

We also cannot ignore the reality that Hezbollah would never engage in such activities without guidance and even permission from the Iranians.

So, as you see, this is far more complex than a few villages along the Syrian Lebanese border.

Let's see what transpires in the next few days.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hezbollah-shiites-syria.html