YOU MUST ALWAYS REMEMBER WHO IRAN IS ADDRESSING.

We must never lose track of who the Iranian government is actually addressing when they make asinine  statements like the one attached.

The message is always for the general public of the region and not for the US public, who  doesn't even care what Iran says day to day, especially if reality TV is on that night!

The real message here, one that is implied, is far more worrisome than the silly answer to where Fajr 5s are made.

Iran's statement cannot be overlooked.

For Iran to openly admit they are and will continue to "supply / support" Islamic Jihad groups in Gaza, gives us an indication of how difficult a cease fire will be to achieve.

Morsi may sway most if not all of Hamas' leadership, but Iran will determine the operational tempo of the Islamic Jihad groups, at least the important ones.

So, is it any wonder all the talk of a cease fire today has not lead to any concrete actions?

Lets suppose for a moment Hamas agrees to stop attacking Israel.

What does the IDF do if rounds / rockets keep coming from Gaza?

I will tell you what they will do, they will hold Hamas / Morsi / responsible.

If Iran wants a "relationship" with Egypt / Morsi / then they are going to have to consider how important this cease fire achievement is to them.

Here is the hint... Iran knows all too well how important the cease fire bragging rights are to Morsi.

So, lets see how Iran plays this tit for tat game with Mr Morsi?

Oh ya, in the meantime, the IDF will continue to pound Hamas and the PIJ as much as possible.

As Morsi and "others" sip tea... Hamas / PIJ young men are being blown to pieces.. along with civilians.

That is a scenario that doesn't play well with young, radical men in the Middle East.

How far does Iran push this event and make no mistake, they are the ones now pushing.

Iran may or may not have started this chain of events.... that is another argument, but getting Islamic Jihad / PIJ / types to stand down is far more up to Iran than it is to Morsi or the UN.

Here is my two cents worth....

The clock is about to run out on the PIJ and Hamas.

The next few hours could see the door to door fighting start and that takes this whole event to a far different level.

Anti armor weapons in the hands of Hamas / PIJ / has been a buildup issue every bit as volatile in the past few years as any rocket program.

The IDF knows this and the reaction if they move on the ground will reflect their knowledge of the improved threat.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=292757

CEASE FIRE TALKS AND THE ISSUE OF JOURNALIST

I sat and wondered, but not too hard because I already knew the reason, why all of these so called "journalist" were so upset by the bombing of the building that some of them worked out of.

Do they really think the rest of the world doesn't realize what this Turkish newspaper had the professional courage to admit?

Letting Hamas and Islamic Jihad members work and communicate from a facility that is supposedly nothing more than a media site is near an argument for "aiding and abetting the enemy".

If the journalistic world was looking for what message was sent today by the IDF then they got one; don't hide the enemy amongst you for the sake of getting the "scoop" and then be shocked when you are targeted.

Some journalist are more than just sympathetic ideologist and realize the basic concepts of electronic communications.

When you enemy is utilizing a particular bandwidth of the radio spectrum and you can see that spectrum broadcasting from a certain location, then that means that location is being utilized by the enemy.

To put it simply, the IDF knows how to look for Hamas and PIJ communications and that is something the not so technical "journalist" need to realize if they are going to allow them to room with them.

So please, lets stop with all the moral outrage over journalist being bombed / targeted.

The IDF is targeting enemy communications and that is all.

Ok, on to the topic of a possible Cease Fire!

I have one basic question.

Who is going to get the Islamic Jihadest  groups to go along?

Who is going to tell Palestinian Islamic Jihad to stop firing into Israel?

Morsi?

I bet not.

Iran?

Why would they?

They may not have formulated this event, but they are working hard to turn it into an exploitable issue and giving orders to PIJ and others like them to stop probably doesn't fit the plan.

Now, back on my bandwagon about Journalist.

All day today the story was the possibility of a cease fire and every interview conducted by  the Journalist dealt with Hamas and Israel... not a word about the Islamic groups coming into line.

So, does the idea of a cease fire seem possible?

So much emphasis has been placed on Morsi and Egypt, one would think it is totally up to them to make it happen.

Yes Mr Morsi.... it is much easier to complain about government than it is to run one.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=98906

SO... HOW DOES MORSI FIND A WAY OUT OF "PILLAR OF DEFENSE"?

Once again, Mr. Morsi continues to understand it is much easier to complain about government that it is to run one!

The timing of this event was certainly not of the Muslim Brotherhood's choosing.

Remember, in my opinion, the sequence of events for the region was going to be based upon the fall of the GCC "Royals" and then all eyes and pressure would be ready to be placed on Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

The MB's plan from day one was to have an Arab Spring type series of events force the issue of statehood and thus constantly paint Israel as the aggressor.

It was for this reason the MB started out their post Egyptian takeover with the re-tasking of Hamas; away from being an Iranian proxy to becoming a MB proxy.

Early on, it became clear to the MB controlling the actions of Hamas was not the only problem.

The other radical groups, ones that Iran had also armed such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad would prove much harder to control.

So, as of today the theory Morsi is trying desperately to formulate some version of a cease fire is understandable.

Morsi's biggest problem was the MB Master Planning concept.

In all of their detailed, long range planning, the MB forgot to anticipate Israel simply not waiting for the MB to bring the Arab Spring to Jerusalem.

Israel was not about to sit back and let Iran and Egypt play the classic, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" game in the region.

Now, Morsi may believe he has a vote in the cease fire negotiation process and in fact many countries, like the US, are teaching him a lesson in international diplomacy, but the fact of the matter is Israel will decide when the attacks stop.

Hamas and the PIJ have far too many "hot heads" who simply will not listen to political doublespeak, at least not right now.

None of this is going Morsi's way, and that means the MB way.

Israel is not about to let Morsi come out of this looking as the big "Peace Maker".

That will set him back on track for his Arab Spring Master Plan.

Morsi is learning a hard lesson and it may be one he deosn't recover from.

Sometimes you just can't talk and BS you way out of trouble.

No one and no country is coming to the military aid of Hamas and that includes the MB and Morsi.

Iran is barely playing lip service to the event and the idea of them linking up with Morsi to counter Israel in this event is simply a pipe dream.

What stops Israel now is Israel.

Not the US, not the UN and surly not Egypt.

I wonder how much equipment and munitions Hezbollah has move or buried in the past five days?

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=292450

  

THE TACTICS OF THE CURRENT CONFLICT / ISRAEL / HAMAS

So, as day five nears of this current confrontation between Israel and Hamas, what is different this time around compared to 2008; other than the Israel's and the IDF's resolve... so far?

Again, lets go back to the tactical issues fist and then end up with a few " big picture"  points.

Does anyone remember the raid on the "plant" in Africa a few weeks ago?

Does anyone remember what it was thought that "plant" was there for?

If you know you are going to conduct an operation and you know what dangers you face, you deal with the most saver threats first.

If Israel had an approximate idea of how many of a certain type of weapon was already in the area of future operations, and they knew they wanted to prevent " resupply" of that item, then they would insure that could not take place; plus send a message to anyone that was paying attention at the time.

If Israel knew there was a type of weapon in the future area of operation that was the greatest threat, would they not spend a great deal of time attempting to locate those weapons for targeting purposes? ... Hint.. something they did not do well in 2006 / 2008.

Now, if this "weapon" was larger than others and more difficult to move and execute, then that would mean the owners would have a more difficult time concealing them and moving them to new locations.... something the Israelis counted on and continue to count on.

Once these most feared weapons are attacked the first round, it allows you to have two advantages, one, you know longer have to worry about concealing what you are doing and secondly it allows you to observe, openly, where these weapons might be moved to.

What has become clear, from the second the vehicle was hit five days ago, is the detail the Israelis have put into this operation.

Complex operations are not developed overnight!

Israel has been working this plan for months if not a few years.

What we are witnessing is the "change" Israel has designed after the 2006 / 2008 conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas.

What we are witnessing is a tactical operation with nothing but offensive operations as it's baseline.

Simply put, Israel has a mindset of not being thrown into the Defensive position ether militarily or politically.

As I said two three days ago, the message being delivered is not just to Hamas!!!!

The true message here is for Iran and Hezbollah.

Israel knows the plans of Iran, and the concept of attacking the weakest link in the Iranian plan, Hamas, is no accident.

Was this about rockets being fired from Gaza into Israel?

Yes, to some degree.

You see Israel knew that action  would always be the reason for doing what they have now set out to do, they just needed to pick the time when they needed that act to be the trigger; knowing all along a few idiots in possession of certain types of weapons would simply be too tempting to now use.

Israel counted on Hamas fringe units and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to give them they excuse they needed.... when they were ready.

This is a plan that is fully supported... fully equipped wrapped in detailed planning.

This is not 2006 /2008 and the Iranians, Hezbollah and "others" know it.

Some are saying, " this is Iran's way of pulling the trigger with Hamas to get the attention off of Assad"!!!

These talking heads should stick with writing books based on the cocktail parties they have attended.

Iran did not force this event......

Israel is bleeding the Iranian war plan and taking away one option it counted on.

Now....

Ask yourself why????

Oh ya... Taking out the Hamas Military "Brain" hours before you start a campaign.... brilliant!!!

One last word of caution and it never changes... The "other-side" gets a vote on how it will turn out!

PILLAR OF DEFENSE... HOW BAD CAN IT GET?

Wars are like forest fires... they can only get as large as the fuel that can feed them.

Last night I painted a picture of why nobody in the Arab world or the Persians or the Ottomans are going to come to the military aid of Hamas.... Oh I forgot to mention.. Abbas would secretly love to see Hamas neutralized.... and as of today it became obvious I was correct.. at least for now!!

As we can clearly see from this speech given by Nasrallah, Hezbollah has no intent to engage a IDF force that is willing to take what ever actions are required to win this time around..

Nasrallah knows this is NOT 2006 and this is not the same IDF he faced then.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=457068

Now, the fact that no nation is willing to militarily engage the IDF doesn't mean several of them are not going to take every advantage they possibly can from this event.

Assad is sitting back in Damascus praying this conflict last at least a month if not more.

Some say he may even attempt to get involved to increase the " distracter factor", but I simply don't see that happening.

Everyone in the region sees the intent in the IDF and it's political leadership this time around and that is something to avoid at all cost.

After four or five days of conflict with the IDF what is operationally left of Syria's forces would be ripe for destruction by the FSA and other rebel groups.

Simply put, if Assad steps into the Hamas conflict, he will insure his destruction.

Ok, lets get back to the issue of everyone in the region taking advantage of the conflict.

Assad... it's clear.. .it buys him time... what he does with that time is unknown, but my bet is he turns up the heat on several of the areas he has the most trouble with.

Hezbollah and Iran will play the "Arab Spring" card much like the Hamas leadership tried to do today.

The concept of linking the Hamas movement with the great issue of the Arab Spring may sound appealing to some in the region, but it will not stop the IDF from turning Hamas locations into smoking holes in the ground.

Can we expect large scale protest against the US / West / and Israel?

Absolutely.

Will this create greater problems for nations like Jordan?

Yes!

Will it change the tactical outcome for Hamas?

Not a chance.

Will the Arab nations try to place pressure on the US and the UN to get Israel to slow down or stop?

They already have and will continue to do so; with the exception of the GCC states.

Remember... the GCC needs Israel more than they need the Palestinians.

Ok, here comes the one sticky point, at least from my perspective.

Egypt!

Is Egypt willing to risk military conflict with Israel?

No!

The truth of the matter is the IDF and the key members of the Egyptian military have closer ties than many of the Egyptian military leaders do with their own leader!

Morsi is no fool and he sees both a threat and an opportunity in this event.

He knows he has the Islamic Fundamentalist in Egypt breathing down his neck and one of the issues they are after him about is the Camp David Treaty.

Taking some action that is shy of forcing the IDF  into conflict is a option he simply must risk to keep the "Radicals" off his back.

Sending his Prime Minister to Gaza on Friday is one example of Morsi trying to play both sides of the fence; a fence he could find himself impaled on if he is not careful.

Tactically speaking, this event will not go over well with Israel and the IDF.

A Egyptian diplomat in Gaza with an group of other Egyptian government officials creates a tactical nightmare for the IDF.

It is virtually impossible to conduct targeting if the IDF doesn't know where these group of diplomats will be.

We all know this is going to be a traveling Dog and Pony Show and it is ludicrous to believe Hamas would make notification where they are taking the Egyptian team to visit.

If the Egyptians are smart, they will limit their travels in Gaza and limit how long they are there, but again, you must realize Morsi is playing a very delicate balancing act here.

 A pause in the IDF operations will be seen as a advantage for the Hamas rocket teams.

They will have time to move and time to rethink and that is not to Israel's advantage.

This Egyptian visit is a dangerous game and it will test the resolve of Israel more than any other event in the past few years.

So, the bottom line is this.

Nobody is going to come to the military aid of Hamas and that will allow Israel to judge at what level will they accept Hamas' combat effectiveness.

A limited Hamas support package will allow Israel to limit the destruction of Gaza.

The danger comes from Egypt as Morsi tries to play regional leader, but with devastating consequences both inside his country and from his neighbor!

Tomorrow I would like to discus the tactical side of this event.....

Some fascinating issues need to be reviewed and made clear to everyone who is watching and wondering why is this time different from 2006 / 2008?

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/58256/World/Region/As-Gaza-death-toll-mounts,-Cairo-tries-to-mediate-.aspx

ISRAEL FORCES THE ISSUE.

Several times in the past few days, I've commented on the consequences of events taking place near Israel.

The Syrian rounds landing in Israel, the consequences of Islamic Jihad groups firing rockets into Israel even after Hamas agrees to a so called "Cease  Fire"  brokered by the MB, the perception issues after the US elections and finally the drive by Abbas to take the PA issue back to the UN.

All of these may have created a formulary that Israel simply couldn't accept.

Ok, lets get down to brass tacks!

What is the intent of the actions taken today and more importantly, what are the possible repercussions?

It's my opinion Israel has carefully weighed the consequences of killing Jabari and is fully prepared for whatever may come from this event.

I don't believe this is the opening round of a larger conflict dealing with the Iranian issue, but then again, the opponent always gets a vote as well.

Yes, it's true Israel must deal with Hamas and Hezbollah prior to any conflict with Iran and for that reason it might be argued this is a classic, "road to war" operation; although tactically it doesn't meet the requirements.

Could Israel be sending a "Message" with this operation?

I would say that is at least one of the objectives, but the question becomes, who is the message to?

Is the message, "Hamas" you control the Gaza Strip and as such you are responsible for the actions of "other" groups on you land"?

Yes, but this is not a new message, for Israel has been making this statement for several years.

Is the message to the US?

Is Israel saying, " You may have your elections over in the US, but the issues of the Middle East / Iran / Hamas / Hezbollah are still here"?

Again, I would have a hard time not believing this was not part of the plan.

Before this "why" question gets a definitive answer, the second question I listed above becomes paramount.

What are the repercussions?

For Hamas, the answer is simple, fight and be crushed; negotiated and allow Abbas to regain total control of the Palestinian movement.

Nether answer is appealing to Hamas's leadership, but reality is just that... reality.

The world cannot expect Israel to make the same tactical errors it did in 2006 and 2008 with Hezbollah and Hamas.

For all the "talk" of support from other Arab countries, the GCC states know they need Israel more than they need the Palestinian statehood issue solved.

Without Israel, the GCC must stand alone against the aggression of the Persians.

That is a stance no Arab nation is willing to take tonight, but again... reality is reality.

What of Turkey you might ask?

Forget it!

Other than words and maybe a few worthless political motions in the UN, the Turks / Ottomans / are far more concerned about the Kurd / Syrian issue.

They simply don't have the will nor the time to take issue with Israel over the blunders of Hamas.

What of Hezbollah?

As much as they would love to lash out, they must be aware of just how much resolve Israel has at this moment in time.

Hezbollah has it's own "issues" staying in power in Lebanon and trying to keep Assad alive in Syria.

Ok, so how about Iran?

Iran only gets one attempt at dealing with Israel and after that, their country will be changed forever.

Is Iran ready for generalized warfare with Israel?

Not on their own accord.

Persians destroying their future for the sake of Hamas and the Palestinian statehood, it's not going to happen, at least not right now.

All of these potentials were taking into consideration long before Israel decided to kill Jabari.

Does that mean this will end just as Israel "planned" it would?

Not even Israel believes that outcome, but then again, they knew that from the beginning.

The message from Israel tonight is clear; they are no longer going to allow the rhythm of the day to be based upon radical factions in Gaza terrorizing Israel.

Hamas, has no easy answers tonight and even fewer "real" friends..

When they ring the phones for help, they are going to be hard pressed to get someone to answer.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=291841

BEYOND AQs WILDEST DREAMS.

AQ planners could have never imagined the second and third order effects of their attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi, and if you are one of the few who still doesn't believe it was a AQ event, then you need to stick your head back in the sand.

Perception, as I have always said, is reality 90 percent of time, especially in a world ruled by instantaneous media and social communications.

Does anyone think for a minute the AQ planners realized the disruption that would take place between the two political parties in the US  based upon the attack in Libya, an act that would lead to the accusations of "cover-up" by  the head of the CIA?

For AQ to realize the Benghazi event is now somehow tied to the fall of two Senior US Military Commanders is nothing shy of a blessing from Allah!

As impossible at this might seem, the two stories are so intertwine, based upon ether fact or party politics in the US, that once again AQ comes out the real victor.

Again, the issue here is "perception" and for that reason alone, AQ finds leverage in both stories.

Would two Senior US Military Commanders have fallen without the event of Benghazi?

Probably, but it is now much harder to make this embarrassment for the US go away.

The US's loss is almost always a gain for it's enemies and make no mistake about it, this is a loss for the US and a huge victory for the enemy.

So, you see, this is not just about "affairs" and the lack of trust in US Military Leaders.

It's about the price we all pay when we are divided and allow poor leaders to stay in positions that represent their nation and people.