IRAN "BACKS" TURKEY'S BORDER ISSUES????

Ok, as the saying goes in the US, "If you believe that, I have some Swampland in Nevada I can sell you".

I have to wonder what Erdogan thought of this "announcement" by Ahmadinejad?

I know one thing for sure; he believes it about as much as I do!!!!!

Now, the two of them do have a common issue and that is a Kurdish independence movement that is not going to go away.

Would the Kurd issue be enough for Ahmadinejad to strike a deal with Erdogan?

Would the collapsing status of Ahmadinejad inside his own country make him reach out to Turkey?

The answer to both of these questions is no!!

Here is what I think The Mad Carpet Rider is up to.

An age old ploy is being put into motion here.

If Iran openly announces its support for Turkey on the issue of "Territorial Integrity", it has a stronger position than normal when it defends Syria's right for the same.

So, to position the issue of Assad's " Rights", Iran pays homage to Turkey.

Now the question becomes, what does this get Iran or Assad?

My bet is, when the time comes, it gets both of them absolutely  nothing.

A nice photo op and a few kind words will not change a thing between the two countries.

Turkey has a "vision" of what needs to happen with Assad and Iran has one that is 180 degrees out.

Bottom line; nice try, but nothing changes.... nothing at all.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=97201

 THE TAKING OF AN AIRBASE.. ONE ...TWO...THREE...

Months ago, I reviewed the topic of countering the Syrian air superiority without concept of a no fly zone or even air support.

It appears the Rebels are perfecting the skill craft of attacking airbases with each passing week.

It's clear the Rebels have realized its one thing to attack and temporally neutralize an airfield, but trying to keep it is still a bridge too far.

Fuel farms, runway surfaces and weapons storage areas are soft targets for an airbase and the impact of consistently rebuilding or resupplying after short violent attacks is taxing in more ways than one.

The logistical drain on keeping a base that comes under attack, constantly, functional is an operational victory by itself.

For every unit assigned to defend critical airbases, that is one less unit moving into combat operations.

So, not only are the Rebels impacting Assad's ability to flying offensive operations over

Their heads, they are creating a drain on an ever depleting logistical process.

Yes, Airfield attacks are just another example of, " A death by a thousand cuts"!

My concern, being a guy who spent a large part of his life fighting this type of an event, is realizing the al-Qaida operatives are learned a very valuable lesson in Syria.

It's nearly impossible to defeat a superior Air Force in the Air, but it's not impossible to strike them where they live.

Yep.. It worries me!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/syria-rebels-air-defense-base_n_1960773.html

AH ..YES... SOMETIMES IT'S JUST HARD TO SHUT UP!!!

Back in the days when the Muslim Brotherhood stated they would not seek the Presidency in Egypt, remember.. it's ok to lie to the Infidel... I spoke to the issue of what I believed the MB ultimate goal truly was.. what I called their " Master Plan".

This statement by Badie simply confirms my theory.

The "End State" for the MB is the capture of Jerusalem.

The difference was the road to success had other areas that needed to fall first.

All "local Infidels" must be dealt with before the grand prize is set into motion and that includes neutralizing the Shia movement.

Now, we all know if Morsi takes any heat of this comment from one of his "Partners", he will simply say, " in the new Egypt, all people are free to speak their mind!", or something close to that.

He will then try and remind the world, remember.. the greater the lie, the more often you must tell it... he is no longer a member of the MB... Ya... Right!!!

Why this Badie was allowed to say such a potentially damaging statement at this point in time is an interesting issue by itself.

So many events are taking place in the region, it's nearly impossible to keep track of what event is linked to what other event.

Turkey's move on Russia and Assad yesterday is still a puzzling event and now such threatening words out of Egypt...... well... that does nothing but turn up the heat for everyone.

If I were " BB" I would simply tweet Badie, if he knows how to work a phone, and tell him the day Badie walks the streets of Jerusalem under his control is the day he will see nothing but glass made from the sand he stands on.

http://www.france24.com/en/20121011-egypts-brotherhood-heads-urged-jihad-jerusalem

HOW SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT IS THIS?

Well, first and foremost, you have to know Tsar is none too pleased with Turkey's actions.

To get caught cold handed doing something everyone in the world knows has been going on for months is not that surprising.

What is interesting is why the Turks chose now to question a process that has been going on for months?

What changed?

More importantly, what message was Turkey attempting to send to Russia and Assad?

The odds are the only way this will be interpreted in Moscow or Damascus is that of an escalation on Turkey's part.

The fact the Turks moved additional fighter aircraft closer to the Syrian border can not be overlooked.

Stacked on top of that event is the announcement it was no longer "safe" to fly over Syrian airspace?

Really????

Again.. Nothing new here... so again the question of; what changed?

I can tell you that the "clearing of airspace" is a worrisome sign to those that know the process of CAP, Combat Air Patrols.

So, what is taking place with these three events.. . Syrian airlines with Russian gear... movement of fighter jets to the border and the closing of Syrian airspace for Turkish airliners.. A process that will be copied by other nations very soon.

                                                                                                                          

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210102183860603.html

AN "EX" UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE??? GIVE ME A BREAK!!

David Rothkopth??? Give me a break!

I have only one comment for a guy like this... stick to selling Chinese goods in Walmart and leave the concept of how conflicts execute to those who have lived in them.

Now, I have talked time and time again about the possibility of actions over Iran or by Iran and how they might take place, but people who write articles like this poor effort in Foreign Policy Review need to catch a clue.

Take a wild guess as to who gets a vote on how long such a strike would last?

Yep.. a ten year old who has mastered Modern Warfare Four on Xbox can figure this one out....... The Iranians do!!!!!!

No one ever said you had to be intelligent to get an article published in a rag like the Foreign Policy.

Take a look at what the other attached article says and remember what I just said above.

Does anyone truly believe the US and Israel could simply bomb locations in Iran for a "few hours" and then head back to the Academic Dinner for Brainless ex administration officials in DC?

One of my favorite TV shows from the 60s was a program called, " Lost In Space".

In that show there was a robot who just about every episode yell, "WARNING... WARNING...DANGER ...DANGER"..

This is exactly what should be going on right now when a left of center, ex administration official starts telling  how easy a strike on Iran might be and how the region might be better off soon afterwords.

What worries many of us is the possible issue of why someone would start floating a story like this.. right now....

I know I have written about the ability to disrupt the Iranian program without having to completely destroy each facility, but I took the time to talk about the danger of Iranian reaction.

The law of Disproportional applies to the Iranian issue like no other time in modern history.

To Iranian leadership, the act of destroying their nuclear program is an attack on their soverinty and can only be seen as a open attempt at " Regime Change".

So, how is it that anyone, even someone as highly skilled as a Deputy Commerce Secretary, insert smirk here, could paint such a rosy outcome?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287118

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287148

UPDATE ON HEZBOLLAH'S FUTURE.

Interesting read attached, but I think the author misses an important issue.

The theory Hezbollah may come out of this Syrian event just as strong as they were before based upon their military status still being intact is questionable to me.

What the author overlooks is the issue of Hezbollah being depleted in a conflict and no longer having a 'lifeline" to be resupplied by.

The short answer is, if Iran falls into conflict the future of Hezbollah is bleak at best.

A campaign to deplete Hezbollah's stockpiles as quickly as possible, hopefully far sooner than their ability to deplete it by utilization, is the key to their defeat.

A campaign involving Iran will lead to Hezbollah taking an assault unlike any they have witnessed in the past.

When the dust settles the ability of Hezbollah to have someone resupply them will be gone, along with their influence in Lebanon.

Simply put, to support Iran in a regional war means the end of Hezbollah as we know it.

Hezbollah understands this and in the end, as I have said before, they must decide if destroying their movement for the Persians is truly the end state they can accept!

At night, when the lights are out and the Iranian leadership is contemplating their fate, do they truly believe the Shia Arabs of Hezbollah will cast away their dreams for the sake of the Persians? 

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Oct-04/190070-syria-widens-hezbollahs-contradictions.ashx#axzz28GFEyiBN

FLASH POINT FOR BOTH IRAN AND SYRIA.

Two events took place today that made the news in most of the world with the exception of the US; where all eyes are on the Presidential Debate set for tonight.

One was the exchange of fire between Turkey and Syria.

The other, the far more serious event, was the demonstrations in Tehran.

As excitable as the exchange of fire was between Turkey and Syria, it remains to be seen if this will turn into a true escalating event.

Turkey may use this event to pressure the UN and it's NATO partners into rethinking the "safe zone" issue and some already believe that is what this event really is all about.

Some may think Assad is looking for a "distraction" thinking a limited exchange between Syria and Turkey may pressure "others" to demand a cessation of violence.

I don't buy ether of these stories.

My theory is the rounds fired into Turkey were fired by a unit that is so unprofessional they didn't even realize the repercussions of what they were doing.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply cannot afford the public outcry of not reacting to casualties on their own soil.

Does this mean this event cannot escalate into something far more dangerous?

No, but I don't believe Turkey or even Assad has War on their minds between the two nations.

We shall have to see what takes place in the next 24 hrs to know for sure.

Now, for the real news of the day!

Iran and the dreaded event; the event they have been terrified of for almost two years.

Protest and not just protest by angry College Kids....

For the past few days I have talked to the issue of the impact of the sanctions and how the consequences might very well be more than the West bargained for.

Forcing civil strife in Iran was a foolish goal to begin with and now the age old rule of " law of unintended consequences" could be taking effect.

Iranian leadership's  reaction to these protest of the state of the economy is critical to the overall future of the region.

For days now, they have warned the world they perceived the sanctions as "economic warfare" on the people of Iran.

There is only one way they will frame the protest that started today; it was a Western / US / designed event; one designed to bring about regime change in Iran.

What is Iran willing to do to stop this from growing larger?

How long before the people of Iran see what is taking place and decide now is the time to take to the streets?

Will Iran punish the people of Iran or will they lash out at the ones they believe has brought this upon them?

Yes, two significant events took place today, but the Iranian protest is the one that truly could lead to regional even global consequences.

Months ago, I said if these events came to Iran, Ahmadinejad would become the victim of choice, but that will only buy his Boss a small amount of time if any at all.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

The flaw in the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plan to toss Ahmadinejad to the wolves is the simple fact that the people of Iran will not be satisfied with just one head on the stick.

It will not work!

As of today, Iran's leadership  just became far more desperate than any point in the recent past and there is the real danger!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286516

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/clashes-reported-in-tehran-as-riot-police-target-money-changers.html?_r=0