HOW SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT IS THIS?

Well, first and foremost, you have to know Tsar is none too pleased with Turkey's actions.

To get caught cold handed doing something everyone in the world knows has been going on for months is not that surprising.

What is interesting is why the Turks chose now to question a process that has been going on for months?

What changed?

More importantly, what message was Turkey attempting to send to Russia and Assad?

The odds are the only way this will be interpreted in Moscow or Damascus is that of an escalation on Turkey's part.

The fact the Turks moved additional fighter aircraft closer to the Syrian border can not be overlooked.

Stacked on top of that event is the announcement it was no longer "safe" to fly over Syrian airspace?

Really????

Again.. Nothing new here... so again the question of; what changed?

I can tell you that the "clearing of airspace" is a worrisome sign to those that know the process of CAP, Combat Air Patrols.

So, what is taking place with these three events.. . Syrian airlines with Russian gear... movement of fighter jets to the border and the closing of Syrian airspace for Turkish airliners.. A process that will be copied by other nations very soon.

                                                                                                                          

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210102183860603.html

AN "EX" UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE??? GIVE ME A BREAK!!

David Rothkopth??? Give me a break!

I have only one comment for a guy like this... stick to selling Chinese goods in Walmart and leave the concept of how conflicts execute to those who have lived in them.

Now, I have talked time and time again about the possibility of actions over Iran or by Iran and how they might take place, but people who write articles like this poor effort in Foreign Policy Review need to catch a clue.

Take a wild guess as to who gets a vote on how long such a strike would last?

Yep.. a ten year old who has mastered Modern Warfare Four on Xbox can figure this one out....... The Iranians do!!!!!!

No one ever said you had to be intelligent to get an article published in a rag like the Foreign Policy.

Take a look at what the other attached article says and remember what I just said above.

Does anyone truly believe the US and Israel could simply bomb locations in Iran for a "few hours" and then head back to the Academic Dinner for Brainless ex administration officials in DC?

One of my favorite TV shows from the 60s was a program called, " Lost In Space".

In that show there was a robot who just about every episode yell, "WARNING... WARNING...DANGER ...DANGER"..

This is exactly what should be going on right now when a left of center, ex administration official starts telling  how easy a strike on Iran might be and how the region might be better off soon afterwords.

What worries many of us is the possible issue of why someone would start floating a story like this.. right now....

I know I have written about the ability to disrupt the Iranian program without having to completely destroy each facility, but I took the time to talk about the danger of Iranian reaction.

The law of Disproportional applies to the Iranian issue like no other time in modern history.

To Iranian leadership, the act of destroying their nuclear program is an attack on their soverinty and can only be seen as a open attempt at " Regime Change".

So, how is it that anyone, even someone as highly skilled as a Deputy Commerce Secretary, insert smirk here, could paint such a rosy outcome?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287118

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287148

UPDATE ON HEZBOLLAH'S FUTURE.

Interesting read attached, but I think the author misses an important issue.

The theory Hezbollah may come out of this Syrian event just as strong as they were before based upon their military status still being intact is questionable to me.

What the author overlooks is the issue of Hezbollah being depleted in a conflict and no longer having a 'lifeline" to be resupplied by.

The short answer is, if Iran falls into conflict the future of Hezbollah is bleak at best.

A campaign to deplete Hezbollah's stockpiles as quickly as possible, hopefully far sooner than their ability to deplete it by utilization, is the key to their defeat.

A campaign involving Iran will lead to Hezbollah taking an assault unlike any they have witnessed in the past.

When the dust settles the ability of Hezbollah to have someone resupply them will be gone, along with their influence in Lebanon.

Simply put, to support Iran in a regional war means the end of Hezbollah as we know it.

Hezbollah understands this and in the end, as I have said before, they must decide if destroying their movement for the Persians is truly the end state they can accept!

At night, when the lights are out and the Iranian leadership is contemplating their fate, do they truly believe the Shia Arabs of Hezbollah will cast away their dreams for the sake of the Persians? 

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Oct-04/190070-syria-widens-hezbollahs-contradictions.ashx#axzz28GFEyiBN

FLASH POINT FOR BOTH IRAN AND SYRIA.

Two events took place today that made the news in most of the world with the exception of the US; where all eyes are on the Presidential Debate set for tonight.

One was the exchange of fire between Turkey and Syria.

The other, the far more serious event, was the demonstrations in Tehran.

As excitable as the exchange of fire was between Turkey and Syria, it remains to be seen if this will turn into a true escalating event.

Turkey may use this event to pressure the UN and it's NATO partners into rethinking the "safe zone" issue and some already believe that is what this event really is all about.

Some may think Assad is looking for a "distraction" thinking a limited exchange between Syria and Turkey may pressure "others" to demand a cessation of violence.

I don't buy ether of these stories.

My theory is the rounds fired into Turkey were fired by a unit that is so unprofessional they didn't even realize the repercussions of what they were doing.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply cannot afford the public outcry of not reacting to casualties on their own soil.

Does this mean this event cannot escalate into something far more dangerous?

No, but I don't believe Turkey or even Assad has War on their minds between the two nations.

We shall have to see what takes place in the next 24 hrs to know for sure.

Now, for the real news of the day!

Iran and the dreaded event; the event they have been terrified of for almost two years.

Protest and not just protest by angry College Kids....

For the past few days I have talked to the issue of the impact of the sanctions and how the consequences might very well be more than the West bargained for.

Forcing civil strife in Iran was a foolish goal to begin with and now the age old rule of " law of unintended consequences" could be taking effect.

Iranian leadership's  reaction to these protest of the state of the economy is critical to the overall future of the region.

For days now, they have warned the world they perceived the sanctions as "economic warfare" on the people of Iran.

There is only one way they will frame the protest that started today; it was a Western / US / designed event; one designed to bring about regime change in Iran.

What is Iran willing to do to stop this from growing larger?

How long before the people of Iran see what is taking place and decide now is the time to take to the streets?

Will Iran punish the people of Iran or will they lash out at the ones they believe has brought this upon them?

Yes, two significant events took place today, but the Iranian protest is the one that truly could lead to regional even global consequences.

Months ago, I said if these events came to Iran, Ahmadinejad would become the victim of choice, but that will only buy his Boss a small amount of time if any at all.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

The flaw in the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plan to toss Ahmadinejad to the wolves is the simple fact that the people of Iran will not be satisfied with just one head on the stick.

It will not work!

As of today, Iran's leadership  just became far more desperate than any point in the recent past and there is the real danger!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286516

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/clashes-reported-in-tehran-as-riot-police-target-money-changers.html?_r=0

IS THERE A "MESSAGE" COMING OUT OF IRAN?

Look at these four articles and see if you can make the argument Iran may be, just may be, looking for a way out of the Syrian event?

It's hard for me to envision as well, but I am the guy who months ago said both Iran and Russia would find a way to abandon Assad if they could keep some version of what they need out of Syria.

Iran warning Syria on the use of WMDs?

            Although this could be a swipe at the Israelis as well.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-02/189902-syrias-assad -tours-aleppo-orders-more-troops-into-battle-paper.ashx#axzz283pXBAY6

Assad uses the word " cleanse " towards the Rebels?

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286365

            Does Iran fear Assad use of WMDs for this reason?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Article.aspx?id=189868#axzz283pXBAY6

Syria being openly upset with Hamas?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Article.aspx?id=189868#axzz283pXBAY6

            Does Hamas have marching orders from someone else and Syria knows it; someone other than the MB?

Iran warns of outside interference in Syria?

            A strange statement given the fact they have all but admitted their involvement in             Syria.

Now admittedly this could seem like tea leaf reading, but some of the actions coming from Assad and Tehran have been more than unusual over the past few days.

One thing is for sure, if I and those like me think some of these statements and press meetings are unordinary, then you can bet Assad is thinking the same thing... ten fold!!!

 Iran's currency crisis is topic number one right now in Tehran and that event is only going to get worse, but Assad using words like " cleanse" is bound to be making Tehran nervous; unless Tehran is ready for the " Great Distraction"..... 

OK... SO WHEN DO THEY GO?

 If you listened to  Netanyahu speech, some might argue, warning, he gave at the UNGA today, you may have only one question left to ask; " when do they go"?

I would have bet Netanyahu was going to spend a minimal amount of time on the issue of the Palestinian statehood, and I would have been right.  

As important as the PA issue is to some in this world, it is no longer the issue that threatens Israel's survival, at least not yet.

 THE RED LINE CONCEPT:

for weeks now, as everyone has been hearing of this "redline" concept, I've been fairly confident most simply didn't understand what it meant, to include some heads of governments.

What Netanyahu did today was make the concept crystal clear for all to see and hear, but this was not his only goal, it wasn't even his primary reason for giving the example.

What Netanyahu did today was warn the world, Israel has set a definite, finite timeline for war with Iran and he did this in such a way  that there can be no misunderstandings.

Netanyahu has been giving a warning to the world for over fifteen years, but this one was much different and I am convinced this was also his last warning.

So, who was his message really for?

The US leadership?

Partially.

The Arab States, who fear Iran as well?

Perhaps.

It is my opinion his real targeted audience was the people of Iran.

From this day forward, the Iranian people, who's life gets worse with each passing day of sanctions, must wonder how close is their government getting to the Redline?

The sudden "rumors" of a Spring / early Summer / event is a masterful form of psychological warfare.

The Iranian people have been somewhat worried of a pending war, but for the first time they have witnessed the Israeli leadership telling them exactly what event will bring them a event that will change their lives forever.

Will it work?

There seem to be two plausible options for the Iranian people.

1.  rise up against the government, the real hope of the rest of the world.

2.  Take this action by Netanyahu as a threat and rally around their leadership..

THE DANGER WITH NETANYAHU'S PLAN:

In a "healthy" governmental environment, leadership would most likely wait an given amount of time praying the people would rally to the side of leadership.

The problem is, the government of Iran is nowhere near healthy.

Paranoia and lack of trust rules the day, everyday.

No one paid closer attention to what was said today than the Iranian Leadership.

No one other than Iranian Leaders knows the window of time when this next phase of enrichment will take place.

Imagine if they are already there and they truly believe Israel knows this?

Panic is the next phase for Iranian leaders and that is the most dangerous option of all.

I have said this time and time again; why would Iran, knowing an attack is immanent, wait to lose what they have militarily?

Did Netanyahu just push Iran into making the fist move?

Did he intend to do so?

We shall see very soon!

SO WHY IS ERDOGAN  NOT AT THE UNGA?

It's a topic that most have not even taken the time to realize, but yes... it's true.. .Erdogan is not at the UNGA.

Now, not showing up at the UNGA has always been seen as a form of protest and so the speculation is Erdogan is making a point about something.

I would tend to agree with this theory, but the point in this attached article about the actions and events around the PKK in the past few weeks needs to be considered.

Attach that concept to the announcement of Maliki being invited to Ankara and we may have an indication of what is taking place.

It's a well known fact Turkey and Iraq have been struggling with the issue of the Kurds and the Oil the Kurds are selling... to Turkey by the way!

Stack that on top of the perception, rightfully so, that Iraq is supporting Iran's bidding to prop up Assad's regime in Syria and you have the makings of a real complex, regional dilemma.

 The support route through Iraq by Iran is undeniable along with the Turkish perception Iraq is urging on the PKK assaults in Turkey.

So, is all of this making Erdogan stay home from the UNGA?

It may not be the only reason, but it must be playing a part.

Notice the last question in the article about him not attending; the one about the US preventing Turkey from allowing anti air weapons from reaching the FSA / Rebels?

The rumors of these weapons entering the fight, specifically Surface to Air Missiles, have been floating around for weeks now.

The fact we have not seen a You Tube video of one being employed against Syrian aircraft is somewhat of a mystery; or is it?

Read the last article attached and you may be able to determine what the real issue is.

If Iran is flying commercial aircraft into Damascus Airport and the FSA / Rebels know  or believe these aircraft are carrying Iranian troops and weapons, why would they not work as hard as they could to bring one down?

A organization that can bomb the equivalent of the Syrian Pentagon and then physically assault the building, is capable of getting a show off near an international, civilian airport.

 Does anyone think the West, US, would not be worried sick about such an event taking place?

What would be the reaction of Iran?

Who would Iran blame for these SAM weapons showing up in the hands of the FSA/ Rebels? take your pick... Saudi / GCC // the US.

What might this type of event mean to the region and what would it mean if it were to take place before the November elections in the US?

Well; does Erdogan have a lot on his "plate"??? oh ya!!!!

Would he be upset the US is supposedly trying to hold back the implementation of SAM weapons in Syria?

Perhaps!

What is said between he and Maliki, if Maliki agrees to show up, might be very interesting.

Lets see if the meeting takes place.

Oh; by the way!

I can assure you the Ottoman Leader was surly not too happy with the Grandstanding the Muslim Brotherhood leader gave at the UNGA today.

They both have visions of being the Leader of the new Middle Eastern Movement and being out shined while you put up with the Iranian Puppet Maliki and the Kurd issue is not going to make Erdogan happy.

http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=293009

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=96123

http://www.debka.com/article/22385/Iranian-officers-reshape-Assad%E2%80%99s-Shabbiha-militia-into-a-second-al-Qods