HEZBOLLAH... MORE DESPERATE BY THE DAY!

For months Iran has charged Hezbollah and the Iranian Quds forces with executing a series  of attacks on Israeli targets; a mission that has only once proven to execute successfully.

As I have stated time and time again, these attacks appear to be primarily to goat Israel into action; action that Iran needs to have a chance of surviving the changes in the Middle East.

Hezbollah has been agreeable to this task given two things, one Iran is their "Master" and key supplier and two, like Iran Hezbollah realizes their time is possibly coming to an end.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9282

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9279

In the past three months, Nasrallah and his minions have seen the beginning of the end of Hezbollah rule in Lebanon, thus his desperation now matches Iran's; they both need "outside" conflict and they need it soon.

The problem with Narallah's dream is the simple fact he knows the real enemy is the Sunni movement crossing the region.

When the dust settles, there will be no Hezbollah based power group in Lebanon.

When the dust settles, Hezbollah will be forced to make a choice; become a truly minority political movement or simply be a Terrorist based, marginalized organization much like Al - Quada 

Hezbollah's time is coming to and end or......... it's time for a change.

The choice is up to it's followers far more than it is up to it's leaders.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=283706

A THEORY REVISITED 

At the beginning of this year, I posted the article below that referenced my concerns of the Iranian / North Korean " relationship".

After reading the story, link provided, about the continuation of this relationship, I thought it would be interesting to revisit the theory I never really explained.

Now,  looking at what possible scenarios can come about in a potential conflict is a a common practice for most governments.

Having said that, let me pose one that, regardless of likelihood, at least makes for interesting analogy; more commonly known as the "what if game".

What if????

What if North Korea and Iran had a " mutual protection agreement none of the us knew about?

The concept of a secret "Pac" based upon the commitment to "come to the aid of each other", is not new in the history of world politics.

For the sake of argument, let's assume the North Koreans and the Iranians had such a Pac and that Pac called for each nation to "disrupt" their enemies if the other was drawn into a conflict.

What if,  the Pac stated North Korea would enter into limited conflict in the Korean Peninsula if an attack / conflict / was launched on Iran?

Sound unrealistic?

Here is my question?

Historically, has it happened before?

Is it not even worthy of contemplating?

I hope not.

Let's take a look at what this Pac would mean to the West and the US.

Would the American people support two major conflicts taking place at the same time?

Please don't confuse Afghanistan and Iraq as an example if your answer is "yes".

How stretched would the West / US and it's Allies be in such a scenario?

What would be the economic impact to the world markets?

Would that economic impact mean anything to North Korea and Iran?

What would be the second and third order effects of such a dual conflict on opposite sides of the world?

So, does this scenario sound unrealistic?

Maybe.

Does it rise to the level of someone contemplating how it might happen?

I hope so.

Two of the most desperate, dictatorships  in the world are  in a "Pac".

What are the terms of that Pac?

Thinking through the unthinkable.. .something the West should have mastered after the unimaginable events of September 11th 2001.

Oh ya, no one, and I mean no one, trust ether nation.

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=283603

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=2147888140561474278

SO..  DID IRAN REALLY BELIEVE MORSI WOULD LET IT ALL GO THEIR WAY?

                                                                                                                                                                            

In the Middle Eastern game of Double Cross, Iran got “punked” yesterday!!

The moral to the story here was, never invite an Arab Shia to a Persian / Sunni pep rally and believe you are going to have things go your way.

I would have loved to have heard the Persians as Morsi was giving his speech!!!!

The battlefield of Sunni   vs Shia / Arab vs Persian, just grew more evident with this stunt.

Now, it’s true the NAM is about as relevant as the GCC or the Arab League, but the Iranians somehow thought having this group of  professional meeting holders in Tehran would signify  Iran’s    status in the world?????? Really??

I have mentioned before the Iranians seem to have a very unrealistic concept of how to influence the outside world and this event adds credence to my point.

What I find fascinating is how, once again, Morsi played someone or some nation to his benefit.

He never intended of showing up in Iran and making Iran look good, but I would be willing to bet he smiled the whole time he was meeting the Persians.

Truly his skills of deception continue to prove one of his most powerful  tools.

Yes, the game of Double Cross played another round in Iran this week.

I bet two things will happen.

1.        The Persians / Shias will not let this “betrayal” go easily

2.       This will not be the last time Morsi “plays” his local leaders.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/20128308579560767.html

SO.. WHO IS ASSAD ATTEMPTING TO CONVINCE?

To read these stories today dealing with Assad attempting to convince "someone" or some group, that he simply needs more time brings up an interesting issue.

Who is he trying to "convince"?

His supporters, but what section of his supporters?

The Russians... the Iranians.. the Sunni business owners ????

I have another question besides that issue.

Why does he feel compelled to convince some one or some group he is going to make it?

Has he caught wind of someone or some group abandoning him?

If he has, it would have to be a supporter that was important enough to him that he would give such a bold statement.

The DEBKA attached story might just be a indicator of what is worrying Assad.

If Putin has decided to disengage with Assad, I am sure he would not do so in a written letter to the media.

If the DEBKA sources are correct, then I would bet the Tsar will not do so lightly.

If Russia is about to give up on Assad, there will be a price to pay somewhere else; that's just how the old KGB Boss does business.

So, lets assume Assad is really worried about "key" supporters pulling away.

What does it mean to him?

It means he is nearer to his death bed than most realize!

This press announcement by Assad was almost like a scene right out of an old Mob movie.

"Just give me a little more time.. you know I'm good for the money"!!!

BANG!

That is how the line usually ends in the Mob movies and that may be the way Assad's movie is about to end.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19407502

http://www.debka.com/article/22314/Russia-is-disengaging-from-Syria-Arms-shipments-stopped-warships-exit-Tartus

IRAN "ADMITTING THE OBVIOUS!

A well written article by Anshel Pfeffer  on a statement that is most likely going to  be overlooked.

If anyone has a good understanding of just how bad things are going for Assad, it's Solaimani and Khamenei listens to Solaimani.

Remember my baseline argument; Iran will never survive a Sunni victory in Syria.

With the downing of yet another aircraft of Assad's yesterday, the question becomes more and more important.

When does the real "tide" of the conflict change?

When we see rebels You Tubing clips of shoulder fired weapons at Syrian aircraft, the answer will be clear.

Solaimani probably knows this moment is near and he may have finally convinced Khamenei it was time to warn the region.

A slow leak to a non prime time media outlet is a good way to judge the initial reaction and I think that is exactly what Iran has accomplished.

If this "admission" doesn't make real headlines in the next day or so, Iran will make it even more clear perhaps even with actions instead of words.

Khamenei has been at a loss as to shaping the events in Syria for months now.

It's hard to paint a picture of success when bombs are going off in Damascus and Aleppo is a battle zone.  

Khamenei is leaning more and more on Solaimani to figure a way out of this mess and save Iran from the Arab Spring.

Solaimani has one theory and it may be Khamenei is giving in to it.

Fight!!!

Show the world Iran will not stand for the loss of Syria / Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Solaimani is a battle tested Warrior and his opinion of " talking" is well known.

So, what is my interpatation of this somewhat surprising, but predictable statement?

It could be Khamenei has been told what is about to happen in Syria and he is lost on what to do next; and that means Solaimani becomes a key power broker!

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/why-is-iran-suddenly-admitting-to-sending-troops-to-syria.premium-1.461237

MORSY SPEAKS AND NOW TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES.

So, Mr. Morsy put on his fist "official" international interview today?

The fact that he is about to go "on the road" to China and then Iran explains his prepatory work at looking  'worldly".

I must admit, I found what he said, and I think what he meant, to be interesting.

The art of messages inside of message is a classic political tool and Mr. Morsy knows how to execute that process well.

Lets take a quick look at a few of his comments:

"BALANCE"!

I would love to listen in on Mr. Morsy talking with the Muslim Brotherhood about their definition of " balance".

My take is his meaning of balance equates to less dependence on the West / US.

A subtle way of saying, " I'm going to start shopping at more stores than just the Western ones".

"PEACE DEALS"

As I said three weeks ago, he has redefined what "normal" means when it comes to Egyptian troops in the Sinai.

Most of us knew all too well that once those units are in, they are not coming out.

He didn't need to renegotiate the Camp David Treaty; he simply ignored it.

Notice his line about "soil"?

He is in the Sinai to stay.

MEETING WITH ISRAEL:

 He didn't mention that he planned on it because he doesn't!

I would bet the Israelis will find a way to reach out to him and see if he will answer.

Remember, he left the Muslim Brotherhood!!!! RIGHT!!!

COMFORTABLE WITH TAKING A HIGHER PROFILE IN THE REGION:

Why of course he is... it's been part of the MB's Mater Plan all this time.

How much he can convince China he is ready for "Prime Time" will be interesting.

Unless Egypt has something China can mine out of it's land or unless Egypt will sell it water control of the Nile to China, I'm not sure what the Asian "Borg" will see in Egypt.

SYRIA:

Now let's see... The Muslim Brotherhood / Sunni / government of Egypt thinks that Assad should leave power... Gee... what a surprise.

I'm sure Mr Morsy would be more than willing to get some neutral third party to form an interim government..... like maybe the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood I bet!!!!

I bet this topic doesn't come up on his trip to Iran.

By the way, if Iran tries to play his visit as a ploy on support for Syria, the meeting will not last long.

Ok, so Mr. Morsy has stepped into the "big leagues"?

Now lest see how the players already on the field treat him.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=282833

ABBAS AND THE IRANIAN MEDDLING!

As I talked about two days ago, the Iranian meddling in the affairs of the PA and more specifically  Hamas is easy for all to see especially Mr. Abbas!

This event is not about playing Hamas off against Abbas.

Iran could care less about the welfare of Hamas or Abbas.

The Palestinian "issue' is to Iran what it has always been, a tool to manipulate the greater goals of the Persians / Shia / and Iran.

Iran, Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and on and on....  have no intention of finding a long term solution to the PA issue.

What they all need is the issue to meet their individual needs / political goals and that has very little to do with the status of simple Palestinians.

If Hamas goes to Iran, If Abbas goes to Iran; the outcome will be the same.

Iran will look to leverage the PA issue for the sake of keeping the Persian dreams alive.

Abbas knows this and Hamas knows this; everyone knows it!

So, Is Iran trying to "divide" the PA camp?

It already is divided!

Is Iran attempting to manipulate the PA issue for the sake of Iran?

Of course!!

As I said two days ago, the real issue here is the Muslim Brotherhood resenting Iran's "meddling" in PA affiars.

The future of the PA issue is now claimed, or soon will be, by the MB.

The Persians / Shia / will get that message from the MB soon!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=282632