SUPPRESSION OF  SYRIAN AIR POWER.. DOES IT TAKE AIR POWER?

for a several weeks now I've been asking some of my old friends a simple question.

Does it take air to air superiority to insure air dominance.

Now, without going into to some long boring War College level discussion on Air Power and Air Dominance, lets look at the question I'm asking.

If you need to insure your enemy can't attack your location from the air, do you need to patrol the air itself or do you need to be able to deny your enemy the ability to fly safely in the air space above your location?

The flying community will tell you, " absolutely.. you need air to air superiority to insure air dominance"... It's what I refer to as "Job Security".

Is it possible to deny your enemy air space operations from the ground?

Let me give you a "hint"...

How many times did the US and the West provide a " no fly zone" in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation?

What was the major contributing factor to breaking the Soviets will to stay in Afghanistan? Hint. The loss of helicopters and "leaders" inside them was extremely high.

Ok, let me get to my point.

The West doesn't need to provide the Syrian rebels with the  coveted " No Fly Zone".

What needs to happen seems to already be underway.

The rebels can be armed to deny the airspace over rebel held land.

The Syrian air force is not the advanced juggernaut the media makes it out to be.

Have anyone seen the MiG or attack helicopters tossing flairs as they conduct their attack runs on the rebels? I don't think so!!!

The Air suppression process for the rebels can be achieved without Western / NATO / air to air operations.

Why go on a high risk mission to attack SAM sites in Syria when you can simply deny the air space of the Syrian air force over held territory?

Why fight at a "force on force" level when you can continue what has been successful for  months, hit and run unconventional tactics?

As I said two days ago, the ability to make the Syrian air force and army plan for air interdiction, something they had to start doing as soon as they lost the MiG, is a process that only slows their offensive operations.

The rebels do not need the skies of Syria clear of  Assad's planes and helicopters.

What they need is the ability to deny air space in the area they are operating.

Asking for NATO " No Fly Zones" is the wrong request.

Asking for anti air weapons and the training to use them; that is the right answer.

Again; as I said two days ago, be careful what you ask for.

Dropping a MiG or a Hind is one thing; shooting down a airliner or another countries transport aircraft; that is a whole different issue.

If the "Friends" of the rebels / insert the GCC here / are going to support the rebels anti air capability, they better have a well thought out plan and limitations.

Someone better do a real good job of vetting the "rebels" who get the training and get access to these types of weapons.

Most of the world believes this process is already underway.. Perception is reality!

Air denial that makes it to the media is a level of bad news Assad and his supporters may react to severely.

 As I said months ago on the topic of " No Fly Zones", be very careful what you ask for.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201281651250103232.html

FOR THE MB, EVERYTHING HAS A SCHEDULE.

We have seen this process with the MB before; trying to get Hamas and Fatah to come to some level of cohesion, but the event was not on the top of the MB list of things to do.

First they had to win the election in Egypt.

Second they had to neutralize the Egyptian military leadership.

My suspension will be the third priority will be to start the rewrite of the Egyptian Constitution; although Morsy may slow that process down now that he has centralized his own power.

Who cares about a new Constitution after you have gained all the power?

In the order of things, I would be willing to bet Morsy and the MB didn't anticipate dealing with the PA issue just yet.

The events of last week have pushed this issue back to the forefront and so he must at least calm the waters for now.

A meeting where he tells both sides to  "calm down" is probably about as far as this next meeting will get.

Behind closed doors, it would be interesting to who Morsy truly believes was behind the attacks last week.

Some speculate he may have arranged the event to justify the move on the Egyptian Military leadership, but I don't buy that.

Morsy knew he was one major event away from being able to pull off the removal plan.

If it wouldn't have been the events in the Sinai, it would have been something else.

Now, that is not to say, if the MB truly believes Hamas had something to do with the death of Egyptians, there will not be a price to pay.

The financial repercussions of the Egyptians closing off the tunnels into Gaza would be the death bell for Hamas and Fatah knows it.

How Morsy and the MB handle this event will become clear when the time comes.

Both Hamas and Fatah realize, deep down inside, they are nothing more than "Pawns" in the Egyptian game of regional chess.

How the MB plans to deal with Israel will decide the future of Hamas and Fatah.

Both will have no other "Daddy" to turn to if Iran and Syria are neutralized.

I said this over almost two years ago, but let me say it again.

In the Master Plan of the Muslim Brotherhood, The Palestinian "Weapon" is the final act for the move on the  " Holy Land".

When that move comes will be at the decision of the MB and I would still bet you that will be after the Iranian / Syrian events have come to pass.

Do not forget the one enduring virtue of the MB.

The patience of Job!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=281212

SYRIAN REBELS AND ANTI AIRCRAFT WEAPONS?? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN?

With all the talk of the downed MiG today, it brings to light a issue that needs careful consideration.

It's a point of history the inclusion of anti air weapons in Afghanistan was the key factor in the defeat of the Soviet military there.

If the statement today was, " anti air" weapons could change the course of the war in Syria, the person or persons saying this could be far more astute than they realize.

Anti SAM operations for the Syrian air force is most likely weak at best and the fact their pilots have not stayed proficient in this highly perishable skill for well over a year now could be a crisis Assad doesn't realize.

Forcing helicopters to realize they are no longer in controlled airspace is going to have a dramatic impact on assaulting city sites.

If the rebels gain the ability to secure or at least threaten the airspace over their heads, the impact will be dramatic.

So, is this potential game changer good news?

Maybe not!

If these weapons are now becoming available to the rebels, we have to ask the question; what are the guidelines?

It's one thing to bring down a tactical target such as a MiG or a attack helicopter, but what happens if the rebels or worse yet those who are not rebels take a shot at non tactical aircraft?

What stops the rebels from targeting non tactical aircraft?

What stops those who pretend to be rebels from obtaining these weapons in the name of the revolution?

Are these weapons in the rebels hands yet?

http://www.debka.com/article/22264/Clinton-Chemical-warfare-is-planned-for-Rebels-get-first-anti-air-Stingers

Lets assume they do and lets also assume the agreements on how they may be used can and will be violated; if there was an agreement!

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-opposition-leader-calls-fly-zone-16989496#.UCm7q52PV8E

At face value, this may sound like a good news story.

My fear is, this could be the event that truly turns Assad into a completely  desperate leader.

That fear is only compounded by my fear of what other targets may be chosen. 

THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S MOVE? ANYONE SURPRISED?

Over a year ago, I mad the comment the MB is like the Colin Cancer of politics.

The advancement is slow, subtle and as non confrontational as they judge it to be.

Saying one thing, with a smile and a handshake, and doing another is the signature of the MB.

Telling the " Infidels" what they want to hear is totally acceptable and most often necessary.  

So, who was really surprised by the action of the new Egyptian government?

Well, the truth is, I bet everyone was!!!

It's a convenient storyline to believe everything is going to sail along in Egypt while the whole world fixates on Syria and Iran.

That was and is exactly what the MB counted on.

Ok, lets cut the to the chase here.

What does it mean to have the Military leadership sacked in Egypt?

Oh, by the way; does anyone remember the similar actions taken by the " Islamic Government" in Turkey?

Ask the Turkish Generals how they are doing?

Here is what the actions of the MB mean to the MB of Egypt.

The days of believing anything they say are quickly coming to a close, even for those that want no problems between now and November  of this year!

The old saying goes like this; " fool me once shame on you.. fool me twice.. shame on me".

The West is on "Fool me" for the fourth or fifth time.

The MB timing of this event is not to be overlooked.

The tensions between Hamas and the PA / Abbas / are part of this formula.

As confusing as the " who done it" game from last weeks attack out of the Sinai may be, the Israelis only see one issue... Egypt just become more of a threat than it was seven days ago.

At a time when Israel is working despertly to keep from falling into a crisis with Syria / Iran and Hezbollah, the MB actions in Egypt will only make matters worse.

Morsi may truly believe he has pulled off a stunning move and me may bask in his successful deception of the West, but the fact of the matter is he has set something in motion he may not be able to control.

The most dangerous dictators, and that is quickly what he is becoming, in the world are the ones that think they are smarter than everyone else around them.

There will be a price for Morsi to pay for this event.

The question becomes, who will make him pay and how?

Finally.. I hope the world, especially the part of the world that thinks the MB is an organization that can be worked with, is waking up to the reality of what is truly going on.

The MB sees themselves as the pinnacle of the Sunni sweep in the Middle East.

Lets see how the Ottomans and the Persians react to the MB game.

http://www.debka.com/article/22268/Muslim-Brotherhood-anti-army-coup-in-Cairo-Tanks-move-up-to-Israel-border

OVERLOOKED EVENTS TELL THE FUTURE OF THE REGION!

This event took place in the past few days and 99percent of the world simply didn't see it or has no idea what it might mean.

Michel Samahas' detention for over explosives being moved into Lebanon by

Syria is just another indicator of how dangerous events are becoming for

Lebanon.

Hezbollah cannot help but see this event as yet another sign the leadership

in Lebanon is becoming more and more embolden to pull away from Assad.

Pulling away from Assad is leading to pulling away from Hezbollah.

For Hezbollah, the trend in Lebanon is reaching a point of crisis.

At a time when Iran was caught red handed with troops in Syria, all the

while talking about the desire to keep "outside" interference from taking

place in Syria, the added pressure of Lebanon and Hezbollah only stokes the

fires in Tehran.

Is Samahas really guilty of moving explosives into Lebanon?

Who knows and who cares! 

The story in itself is irrelevant.

What is important is the "trend" it shows for Lebanon; a trend that

continues to push Iran further into the panic mode.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9221

IN DAMASCUS FOR " A PILGRIMAGE"???? GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!

About two months ago, I spoke of the significance if the rebels in Syria could prove Iranian support to Assad.

Well.. I think they have achieved that goal and then some.

Now, looking at this group the rebels have, it's clear these are not your stereo typical ground combat troops of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force.

It could be some of the cover story was moving these members in and out of the area of operation with "others" mixed in; a tactic many countries employ.

My bet is the Iranian Military members are "technical member" perhaps specialist in some area that Assad's forces are lacking and not real combatants.

Oh ya; I feel sorry for the poor guy who had his military ID on him.

You can bet one of the ground rules for this support operation in Syria is absolutely no ID on your body that shows who you are with.

Now, the have baked story of these retires being on " Pilgrimage".. well... that was what I would consider a really poor, knee-jerk  response by Iran to their members being caught with IDs on them.

Here is the fact of the matter.

The rebels needed to prove Assad was getting help from Iran to justify receiving help from "others".

Iran's argument, one they made again today in a most pathetic manner, the people of Syria must decide the future of their nation completely went out the window with the capture of these Iranian military members.

As for what they were doing, you can bet the rebels will find out and have probably already done so in a most brutal manner.

The statement that three of the "captives" / notice they didn't call them " hostages", "captives invokes the fact they are combatants, were killed is a sign the rest are singing like song birds by now.

Whatever the mission of these men was, the rebels know it now.

The question becomes, who do they tell the information to and how do the rebels exploit the confessions?

I can think of a few "agencies" that would love to know what these members had to confess!

Ok, the bottom line here is this.

This event is a disaster for Iran at a time when Iran can afford no additional disasters!

Saudi and the GCC will exploit this event to the fullest extent possible.

Backroom discussions on support to the rebels now becomes an unwinnable argument for those still opposed to the concept.

Revenge is a option Iran may be thinking of, but revenge in what fashion?

The one thing Iran had going for it as this crisis was unfolding was the attack in the Sinai.

That attack was an example of "control" and the battle that is pending between the MB and more radical elements of the Sunni faith.

Leverage is something Iran has very little of and perhaps this event in the Sinai can allow Iran to keep the focus on other events while they desperately try to  figure their way out of the hostage event.

Someone in Iran will take the heat for this debacle in Syria and it will not be Soleimani.

He is a favored Son in Iran.

Someone will take the blame and lets see who it will be.

The blame game will only make maters worse in Iran and Iran can't take more bad news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19176528

THREE  STORIES.. ONE THEME...

A few things about the actions of Iran in the past week have me more convinced than ever they simply don't have a solution for the crisis in Syria.

As I have said several time in the past, Iran could settle for a disorganized Syria, a Technocratic Syria but never a Sunni Syria.

For months now they have worked to find some level of "middle ground", but with no results and all the time the Sunni lead factions in Syria have grown stronger.

Iran has tried disruption by getting one group to over react to the other and still they have not slowed the pace of the Sunni wave.

The more the rebels advance, the more the Iranians continue to panic.

Two weeks ago, the panic reached the level of Iran finally threatening those they know are supporting the rebels.

The bad news is, that didn't work ether!!!

The result of that was the King of Saudi inviting Ahmadinejad to an " Muslim Summit"!!! Notice the King framed it as a " Muslim Summit" and not an Arab Summit?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201285112432709886.html

So, nothing, absolutely nothing is working for Iran and when  nothing is working for a country like Iran, what's the reaction....???? Yep.. more threats.

The stories of Iranian leadership holding emergency meetings in Damascus and Beirut are just further indications of Iran's nearly panicked path of politics.

http://www.debka.com/article/22250/Jalili-in-Damascus-underscores-Iran%E2%80%99s-commitment-to-Assad

http://www.debka.com/article/22248/High-Iranian-official-in-Beirut-for-urgent-talks-with-Hizballah-on-Syria-Israel-

Iran is now in a all out race.

It must have some plan ready before the fall of Aleppo; as a matter of economics and strategic value, Aleppo has already fallen!

I would be willing to be the majority of the conversations between Iran and Syia is with the elite backers of Assad and is a simple matter of mapping some type of survival plan.

Iran's problem is they know this process is too little and too late.

The backers of Assad have cut their deals and they are not with Iran.

So what does this all mean?

I look for Iran to move quickly to protect it's last vital proxy... Hezbollah.

Can they count on Hezbollah to allow themselves to be attacked in Lebanon for some future horrific terrorist event on Israeli citizens?

I don't know; but probably yes.

The problem Iran now has is Israel is not going to fall for this game.

If Hezbollah murders innocent Israeli citizens on a large scale the attacks will not go to Lebanon... they will fall on Iran..

I wonder if Iran understands this?

If they do, then their plan to insure Israel attacks Arabs first is gone...

Yes.. Iran is in deep ....deep.. .trouble.

They have one lifeline left.... the Tsar!!!!

But like any good Crime Boss.. the Tsar will look at Iran and say, " so.. what's in it for me"?????