ASSAD, " THIS IS A JOKE"?? SO NOW WE KNOW IT'S TRUE!!!

So Assad gives a speech today and comments that Iranian support inside Syria is a "joke"?

I would be willing to bet the Saudi's and the rest of the region are not laughing at this "joke".

Two days ago I mentioned I had a fear about events in Syria, other than the common fear of a regional war; a regional war Assad will not get a chance to vote for.

Here is the "fear" I was making reference to.

If we consider Assad's Generals may be close to deciding in favor of the future of  the Syrian people over the future of Assad, then Assad and his Brother will know this danger is amongst them.

Imagine a Syrian military that has a majority of it's leadership and foot solders no longer willing to take orders?

Remember last week when I talked the danger of defections at the unit level, such as the Air Defense Brigade that joined the Rebels?

Now, imagine Iranian military leaders, who are already in Syria and have been for months, knowing the Syrian Military Leaders may be plotting to make a move on Assad.

Is the day near where Assad has to rely on Iranian leadership  to fight his battles because he can no longer trust his own Generals?

How does Iran justify to the UN the out in the open issue of Iranian Military Commanders actually leading engagements against the Syrian people?

If Iran is committed to keeping Syria in it's "Camp", then they will have to figure out a way to sell this event.

The only way Iran stands a chance of doing so, is painting a picture of coming to the aid of the "Syrian people" not Assad and doing so because an "outsider' has entered the conflict.

Yep... If Iran needs this chain of events to happen in order to react to a Syrian military that is too weak to win and no longer run by leaders who can be trusted, then all that I have said is going to have to happen.

If this is going to take place, it's going to have to happen soon!!!!

The neighbors of Syria are nervous and well as their militaries.

Iran is closer to needing an "Event" than anytime in the past year.

How does Iran justify setting foot on Syrian land?

They must be coming to the rescue!!!!

What they are missing is a "Invader"

What they are missing is Assad saying Syria is at war with "outside forces"...

OH ya... He just said that this week.

Let's see what may be about to happen?

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275682

SIDENOTE:

Saudi is convenced a fight with Iran is coming.

Look at the Reuters story today.

I will talk more about Saudi tomorrow. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/28/us-saudi-oil-hormuz-idUSBRE85R0KT20120628

SO... WHO KILLED KAMAL RANAJA?

So, a key player in Hamas is assassinated in Damascus?

A Hamas member who had ties to al-Mabhouh who the Israelis did get in Dubai back in 2010; a bold killing at that!

Ranaja was absolutely on the Israeli target list, but would they kill him in Damascus, a city in the middle of a civil war; a civil war that already has the entire region on the edge of conflict?

Would Israel want a truly mid level player in Hamas so bad as to take the risk of activating a "kill team" inside Damascus?

My hunch is they would not.

What is really to gain by making this move at this moment in time?

So, who else would want him dead?

If you guessed Assad, you are more in tune with the dealings of the region right now than most.

We cannot forget Hamas openly turned it's back on Assad and that act was bound to cause some level of repercussion.

Now, it's a good knee-jerk reaction for Hamas to point the finger at Israel.

I would be willing to bet many inside Hamas are pointing the finger at Assad.

Having said that, is Israel clever enough to know they could hit this guy and let Assad take the blame?

Don't you just love the drama of world espionage?

What is interesting is the idea of Assad killing a Hamas member as a message to Hamas.

Messages such as this one are not well received in the Middle East and Hamas will find a way to answer the message.

I say it was Assad and I say it's just another indication of how desperate Assad has become.

Let's see what Hamas does.

Things are "hot" right now in Gaza and lower level units may react to the news before they get the word on what Hamas really believes happened.

Miscalculations is a common event in the Middle East and we may be in for yet another one.

http://www.israelandstuff.com/assassination-in-damascus-mabhouhs-aide-killed

  http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275522

US INTELLIGENCE, "SEES", BUT DO THEY SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE?

It's a fairly safe bet to make the statement a protracted event is going to  take place in Syria when it's already been going over a year and a half!!!!!

All in all, the first article is a nice, safe forecast that really doesn't lead to anything.

It's the next two articles that have my interest.

In the past few months, I have broached the issue of what depths Assad and more importantly Iran would be willing to go to in order to stay in power.

I've covered my opinion of Assad's "Red Lines" for taking Syria into a general war with it's neighbors and the possibility his military commanders might not follow him.

Trust me, it's an issue that weighs heavy on his mind and the minds of the Iranian Puppet Masters, especially after the aircraft defections.

The problem is, the successful Rebel tactics may be forcing Assad's hand.

For months, the Rebels could accomplish little more than simple, hit and run events that gave them just the right amount of video to make good You Tube clips.

That has completely changed and that change may end up taking this crisis to a level not even Assad or Iran wants it to go.

You see, when a group becomes so well organized, disciplined and equipped that they can stand and fight a conventional battle or even better go on the offensive in a conventional fight, then defending force must take the fight to the next level;  a level without fixed wing aircraft given the paranoia of defections.

If you look at the reports coming out of Syria on a daily bases now, you see a dramatic change.

The number of reported destroyed Tanks in the past two weeks is more than alarming to the Syrian Military Leaders.

When armor is vulnerable, infantry must secure it and infantry in the open, on the move, is an easy target; thus the causality numbers for the Syrian military are climbing dramatically.  

Again, an issue the Syrian military leaders are losing sleep over.... what sleep they have been able to get in the past eight months.  Yes.. a very...very fatigued force!!!

Next we must consider a logistic complex that is bleeding almost as fast as the Syrian military.

Technical equipment like tanks, helicopters and large vehicles need maintenance and when do you think these Commander have time to conduct this maintenance?

 Ok, here is the picture I'm trying to paint!

The Syrian military is physically exhausted and morale is  as low as it can possibly get.

On top of the exhaustion and morale issue, you can stack FEAR!!!!

Fear of failure.

Fear of punishment for act you have committed and acts you may not commit; thus fearing both sides of the conflict.

simply put, fear for the future.

Now, put this on top of equipment that is most likely bordering on failure.

What do you have?

I will tell you what you don't have.

You don't have a military that is capable of a conventional war with another nation state  such as Turkey... a NATO member to boot!!!!

Bottom line, if Assad ask his military leaders to launch a conventional war, they must consider if they are even capable of doing so; and at what cost to the nation?

I have a fear of how that scenario might turn out and I only hope the Syrian military Commanders prevent my fear.

I can envision  Syrian Military leaders in conflict with their Iranian handlers.

 http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275346

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275355

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275356

MORSI ADDRESSES THE " INFIDELS", BUT WHO ARE THEY?  

Listening to the Muslim Brotherhood declaring they will or will not do something , like run for the Presidency, is yet just another reminder of what the Islamist live by.

To put it simply, it's perfectly acceptable to lie to an " Infidel" as long as it is part of the process of converting or concurring in the name of Islam.

So, yesterday, Morsi quickly makes the statement, words inside of words, he will not change Egypt's "existing treaties" could be seen as yet another example of "Lies to the Non Believers".

If you read exactly what he said and you understand the Art form of expression in the Middle East, a nice way of saying "double talk", then you could come to the conclusion Morsi didn't promise anything, especially when it comes to Israel.

The good news is, the Israeli government understands this trait to perfection.

 Oh ya... the joke of the day was when I read he had " left" the Muslim Brotherhood... that's like leaving the Mafia.

Not only must we contemplate the "double speak... lies to the Infidels, but we need to think about who is on the " Infidel list?

Fars news agency from Iran, posted  a story today about an interview they conducted with Morsi last week.

In that story, Morsi talks about his desire to reestablish "ties" with the Iranian government and more importantly he allegedly commented about "reviewing" the Camp David Accord.

Here is my million dollar question!

Was Morsi once again, "lying to the Infidels"?

Does a devout Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood member consider a Persian Shia a true believer?

I bet not and if not, then he is free to say whatever he wants to them, just as he is doing  to  the rest of the Nonbeliever world.

Now, Far, a Iranian government rag by the way, is publishing this story for the sake of Iran, a country that fears the Muslim Brotherhood / Sunni movement as much as the rest of the region.

Does Morsi truly intend on reaching out to Iran?

Does he intend to keep existing treaties?

Does he ever intend on telling the truth to anyone that is not Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood?

Time will tell, that is what time the Middle East may have left!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275137

   

EGYPT, SYRIA, IRAN, TURKEY..... HOT SPOTS THAT ARE GETTING HOTTER.

It's hard to keep a accurate scorecard on events in the Middle East right now.

Gaza events and riots in Israel have gone all but unnoticed for the past four days and this is just an indication of how fast things are moving in the whole region.

Egypt's pending presidential elections results even took a backseat to the event between Syria and Turkey; at least for the past three days.

Today, Egypt will become the major news story.

Some will watch the NATO meeting call for by Turkey, but nobody wants that event to get anymore out of hand than it already has.

Turkey has time to design their response and it appears they are doing just that.

It's interesting Iran has said very little, if anything, on the Syrian / Turkish incident.

If we don't see some indication of the Iranian opinion, it's a sure sign Iran was caught off guard by the whole thing and they to are busy formatting their " Official" opinion.

As for the events in Gaza, it was obvious the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt simply doesn't want this nonsense taking place at this moment in time.

In the past 48hrs the MB has all but warned the actors to stop immediately.

The problem, as it has been, is several of these groups don't march to the drum of the MB.

So, it's going to be an action packed week in the Middle East!!

What else is new???

CONTINUED REVIEW OF SYRIAN / TURKISH INCIDENT.

As I warned yesterday, the "facts" and the "opinions" on this incident are becoming diluted.

It's based, as it should be, on the "politics" of the incident.

Did Syrian Air Defense / ADA / shoot down the Turkish jet based on poor training, weak rules of engagement, paranoia over their own pilots defecting, Turkish pilots not paying attention????

The more important question continues to be, was it an accident or was it a initial step in a far more complex plan.

The second question, and perhaps the most critical question becomes, what does Turkey believe?

            Sub issue:  How does Turkey " use" the event?

Let's take a look at what would have to have taken place if Syria took this action deliberately.

Would Assad risk his support from Russia and more importantly Iran, without some level of consultation?

Is he so confident, based on how he perceives their support for  Syria, that he would authorize the shooting down of a NATO aircraft without even giving Moscow and Tehran a warning?

There is a huge difference between being "decisive" and being an "Incompetent"!!!

I think we all know what camp Assad falls into.

So, for the sake of trying to figure out what is going on here, let's assume, dangerous thing I know, but let's assume Assad had given some indication to both Russia and Iran.

Let's assume he may have made some statement, perhaps weeks ago, that Syria would not tolerate the possibility of "Outside Interference".

Oh... That's right..... He has already made this statement time and time again?

Was anyone, Turkey, really listening?

Oh, ya.. don't forget the Turkish Fighter is a " NATO" Fighter!

All right, let's move on.....

Let's assume the Syrian military has had standing orders to challenge, up to interception, any aircraft entering Syrian airspace.

            Side note: Did the Turkish Fighter enter Syrian airspace? P.S. It happens all over   the world.

Now, let's assume that a micromanaged, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander is notified a " fast mover" is approaching his Air of Operation.

Let's assume this same Commander has just been part of a larger " butt chewing" the day before over the issue of the Syrian Fighter defecting.

Now, has this Air Defense Commander ever had a Fast Mover approaching his AO before?

Probably.

Has he ever had it happen the day after his entire chain of command had their heads handed to them for the defection event?

Nope.

Does he command a unit that he knows by and large is anti Assad?

Probably.

So, he panics, orders the "unknown" Fast Mover intercepted and the next thing he knows, he has shot down a Turkish Fighter Jet????

Maybe!

By the way, do you think he would be a little curious about just ONE jet approaching the Syrian airspace?

Was it just one?

For all you Air Force folks out there.. how many "solo" flights does the Turkish Air Force fly; in a region where tensions are about as high as they can get?

So, the phone rings in Assad's Command and he is initially informed of the event.

What did he do?

Did he call Moscow or Tehran and let them know before the Turkish news media and government make an announcement?

I bet not and that may have been a huge if not fatal mistake.

If Assad didn't properly set up this event; if he didn't get " support" for such a volatile act, then his support may have gone down with the NATO aircraft.

A even more dangerous theory:

But, and this is a huge "but"; but just what if Moscow and Tehran were ready for this event to take place?

What if, Assad was following a plan that has been written out for him incase his ability to hold onto power in Syria was about to fail?

I can't get my mind around this theory, unless you separate the two supporting nations.

Could it be this escalation was a Iranian sponsored event without Moscow support?

Would Putin really support the concept of shooting down a NATO partner aircraft?

His actions since coming back into power have been bold and he knows he has "issues" inside his own country, but supporting a regional conflict, something they have warned about, really?????

I just don't know that I believe it.

Now, Iran is an entirely different story!

For months now, really over a year, I have said the fall of Syria is an unacceptable event for Iran; a " Red Line" they would be willing to cross!

On mutual occasions I have spelled out my " Use or Lose" theory from the Iranian viewpoint.

Over the past few weeks the world has witnessed several hurried meetings between Moscow, Iran and Syria; one on one and as a group and that is only the list of meetings that we overtly know of.

What was decided?

What was talked about?

Ruthless world Leaders don't take the time to sit down and argue over dead-end topics.

Remember, after several of these " meetings" the very first thing the Russians would come to the microphone and say was, how dangerous the situation in Syria was becoming and how it would have repercussions for the whole region.

Ok, let's assume:

Let's assume the Iranians have their " Red Line" and when they reach one of those Red Lines, they have a series of actions they are willing to risk.

Let's assume one of those actions is a " warning" event.

Let's assume this warning event is based on the typical, historical warning events of aircraft and airspace.

Let's assume, that if this " warning" didn't have the desired outcome, and I don't believe there is any chance that it will, Iran was looking for, then there will be another and most likely more dangerous.

Conclusion:

I have looked at two possible scenarios as to how this event took place and the bottom line is..... it's all about to get worse.

Europe is desperate to avoid  more bad news, such as a NATO partner, regional war although some would probably argue the European economy needs a " good war" right about now.. a real dumb theory that idiots always come up with.. the Black Helicopter Gang!

The US administration would like the whole world and the world economy to simply sail along like a scene from the Teletubbies.

Turkey; well from day one of the Arab Spring, the Ottomans have worked hard to figure out a way to be the Regional "Leader".

That is the problem here and I think that is the problem Iran didn't properly think through, if this event was their idea.

The Turks get a vote on what do to about the "event".

A regional war is not what Turkey needs or wants, in my opinion.

But, if Iran, the Persians, overstep the limits, then the Ottomans may show the world they are ready to be  the true stabilizing force in the Middle East.

In the end, my  opinion is a reckless, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander has pushed the region to the brink of conflict.

A conflict that Iran and the Turks cannot come out looking like the losers!

Turkish " Perception" and "vision" is the key to the next few days.

Hold on...

SO.  WAS IT REALLY A SHOOTDOWN ??

Well, lets keep this simple and short given this event will have multiple updates as the day moves on.

My best guess is the Syrian Anti Aircraft unit shot the Turkish fighter down thinking it was yet another defecting pilot.

Syrian AA units are about 1/100 as trained and proficient as a typical NATO or Western unit.

What they probably did get was a standing order to fire on any aircraft flying in a  certain area that was not properly identified.

Syrian aircraft to not have FF, Friend or Foe, electronics and a trigger happy AA battery commander would only be thinking about what would happen to him if he allowed another Syrian Jet to travel his air space without authorization.

So,  I don’t buy the theory this was a deliberate act, but the actions of a poorly trained AA unit and paranoid leadership.

This would explain why Turkey has responded so carefully, knowing full well what a disastrous  event this could turn into.

Bottom line, this is just another indication of just how dangerous this whole crisis is becoming.

Have countries fallen into conflicts over a miss communication or a paranoid mistake?

Really… is that a serous question?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html