ARAB LEAGUE'S CLEVER MANEUVER

I know two nights ago I stated I was going to talk about another scenario for a possible conflict with Iran, but I've not finished doing my homework on the topic, so I will put that post off for a few days yet.

Honestly, when I read the attached news article, I became so enthralled with the AL's actions I couldn't put off working on it.

 In my opinion the concept of getting Hamas to take a message to Al Assad is simply brilliant!

It is and has been no secret the Muslim Brotherhood and the Sunni in general have been working to pull Hamas away from the Shia dominated Syrian / Iranian camp!

When AL Secretary General Elaraby announced Meshaal had been instrumental in convincing Al Assad to work with the AL, with Meshaal standing next to him, the message to the whole Middle East was clear.

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words and in this case it's even more than that.

What I find interesting is the so called experts in the West not realizing what this even was really all about.

The AL understands all too well it must strip Al Assad of his support and pulling the Hamas organization away from him is a key in the process.

In a crucial moment for the AL, when their reputation is virtually on the line, the tactic of asking Hamas to take " news" back to Al Assad could just the act that buys the AL accreditation time.

When you stop  to think about it, it's a concept that even makes sense to the Israelis.

Hamas is a critical part of the Iranian / Syrian war machine and to complete the task of pulling Hamas back into the Muslim Brotherhood / AL realm is yet another nail in the coffin for Al Assad and Iran.

That gets me back to my initial statement about yet another possible scenario for conflict with Iran..

I suppose I will have to finish my homework this weekend and post my new theory.

Having said that, this act on the part of the Al was the first sign that they really are beginning to understand how to play offense instead of sitting on the sidelines.

Brilliant move!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/01/iran-squd-force.html?spref=fb

IRAN'S QUD FORCE.. WHAT THREAT DO WE REALLY FACE?

I have advocated for several years now the West needs to be prepared for Iranian actions world wide if it's nuclear program is attacked.

Some have theorized their reaction would be limited to the region and to  those sites associated with their attackers.

Most have theorized the Iranians would not take a world wide, asymmetric approach because of the logistical requirements.

I completely disagreed then and I disagree even more so now.

For months I have addressed the nearly desperate situation Iran is in with the Arab Spring and the pending fall of Al Assad in Syria.

Limiting their response to an open attack is simply not realistic to me.

Waiting to be attacked is becoming even more unrealistic.

The travels of Iranian operatives is a well known issue and recent agreements with nations such as Venezuela to allow flights from Iran makes the possibility of QUD or Hezbollah forces at the US's backdoor more than likely.

The world is full of key strategic targets, infrastructure not just in the US but all over the world.

Insuring that all of these sites are secure from a highly trained and dedicated force such as the QUD is nearly impossible.

Asymmetric warfare is a concept that exist outside the US and Iran is more than capable of executing Asymmetric actions.

In short, the idea the QUD and " others" are prepared to disrupt Iran's enemies world wide can not be overlooked.

If a war with Iran is coming, key leaders in the military as well as civilian law enforcement need to be thinking " outside the box".

Side Bar:

I've been reading and thinking about another scenario for a conflict with Iran and I will post my thoughts on Friday.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=252458

ARAB LEAGUE MONITORS AND THEN WHAT?

It is very evident the AL is realizing more and more each day what it truly means to be "in charge" of an event.

For years they have dreamed of being the respected agency allowed to deal with " matters" in the Middle East.

Well, as I said a few weeks ago... be careful what you ask for!

The Colonial Powers seem more than willing to let the AL take the lead with the Syrian event.

The AL has discovered it is much easier to hold a press conference than it is to actually achieve an objective.

The next trick they have now encountered is being " played" by the very people they are supposed to be helping.

Yep.. the AL is on the other side of the fence for once. 

It's easy to complain you don't get a chance to take care of your own matters.. it's another to be manipulated once you are given the chance.

Being manipulated  is exactly what many believe the SNC is doing with the AL Observer mission.

There has been more press about the inequalities of the Observers and the lack of real progress by the mission than there has been about the good they are trying to accomplish.

Welcome to the real world AL!!!

When someone is in a position of complaining and protesting.. a little of something is never enough.

So what is the next move?

The FSA leadership is threatening a rapid increase in attacks and I would bet this is about to happen.

If there is one thing the Observer mission allowed, it was giving the opposition time to regroup, move into position  and be ready to go on the attack.

Did the Observer mission buy the opposition time to get ready for the next level of attacks?

Probably so!

Responsibility is what the AL asked for...

I think they may have misunderstood that with responsibility comes accountability!!!

Again.. Welcome to the Big League... Arab League!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/20121453922557362.html

ABBAS AND THREATS FROM THE PA

If the rumors are true and Abbas is quietly threatening to step down and or dissolve the PA, it will not be the first time.

The idea of Hamas assuming control of the movement is a threat to Israel that Abbas places too much credit on.

Now, everyone understands his frustration level is at an all time high, but making bold threats has never given him or the PA one single concession from Israel.

Having said this, I'm not convinced this is the only reason he has come out, again, with threats.

If he thinks his actions will place more pressure on the UN to speed up the vote, he is taking a huge gamble.

Netanyahu is not about to cave to someone handing him a list of " demands" from the PA.

I have to wonder if he consulted with Hamas leadership before he put together the list?

One thing is for sure, the radicals inside Hamas are praying the PA stunt falls apart forcing  Abbas  to take his ball and go home.

The real danger comes from Israel believing Abbas may just quit this time thus leaving Hamas in the driver seat.

I'm not sure that is a situation Israel can live with and Abbas knows it.

So, Abbas is in a high stakes poker game here and he may have underestimate, again, what the results could be.

The Israel reaction to the first meeting will probably be somewhat muted.

there may be a few comments by party members in Israel, but I would bet Netanyahu is going to play his cards close to the vest and see what Abbas's next move is.

2012    A DECISIVE YEAR FOR THE ARABS AND THE MIDDLE EAST!

As 2011 comes to an end, the age old question is once again asked, "what will 2012 bring"?

It seems the Academics and the " Talking Heads", both groups who are usually wrong, are once again trying to impress their followers with detailed, philosophical statements.

About six months ago,  I made a simple statement about the future of the Middle East.

Who is going to be the next "leader" in the Middle East?

Will it continue to be what the people in the region refer to as the "Colonial Powers"?

Will it be the reemerging Ottoman Empire from Turkey?

Will it be the reemerging Persian Empire from Iran?

Will the Arab League finally achieve the level of validity it has dreamed of?

Colonial Powers:

The Colonial Powers have history and economics on their side, but the economic weapon is decaying and is predicted to continue to decline.

The Colonial Powers, as  has been the case throughout time, will continue shrink their sphere of influence as the financial situation worsens.

In short, the days of Colonial Rule in the Middle East are over.

How quickly and how orderly this happens is an issue of the Social Media events such as the Arab Spring. ( The Colonial Powers, and " others", still do not understand the power of Social Networking. It's a Genie that is out of the bottle.)

The Ottomans:

Time is sometimes everything and this time around that is especially true for Turkey.

Turkey's 15 year quest to be accepted by the European Union and Economic club has come to a scratching stop.

As things continue for the  " Collective Europe", it could very well be the Europeans will need the Ottomans' more than Turkey needs to be accepted by Europe. Hint... The Turks understand this all too well.

As bright as the future currently seems for the Ottomans, their enemies will not just sit back and give away their dreams. ( Insert the Persian dream here!!)

The issue of the Kurds and a dream of Kurdistan pose the same daunting task the Israelis face with the Palestinian statehood issue.

Yes... the Kurds are the Turk's version of the PA.

Another problem for the Ottoman quest is the fact the Arabs don't trust them.. never have and never will.  Look at history for the examples.

The Arab League and the GCC will not simply role over for the new Colonial Power.. The Ottomans.

The Persians:

The dreams of one leader in Iran are not necessarily the vision of the other and that is the key weakness to the Persian future.

A house divided is never a house ready to concur the region, much less the world.

Persians are not Arab and no one knows that better than the Arabs.

They have been told that for thousands of years.

Just as there can be no true alliance between the Ottomans and the Arabs, there will be know alliance between the Persians and the Arabs, regardless of faith!

Continuing to thrive or survive on the common threat of the Israel and the issue of the Palestinian state is not going to save the Persians.

Youth and the internet will bring down the Religious fanatics and they know this.

The danger will become a " Youth" that is Nationalistic and once again looks down their collective noses towards their Arab neighbors.

The Arabs:

If you asked 100 people across the world, " who are the 'Arabs', you would not find a common answer.

The problem is, you would get the same results from asking 100 Arabs the same question.

A region with a four thousand year history of " Tribes.. Clans.. family bloodlines... transcends any concept of Arab Unity.

The Arab League has been and will continue to be a dream just as the Pan Arab movement was a dream.

Not sure what I am talking about here?

Watch Laurence of Arabia and it will become clear to you nothing has changed.

So, who takes the lead in the Middle East in 2012?

Nobody!

The vacume created by the continue withdraw of Western countries will not be filled by any of the major players listed above.

Oh ya... Don't count on the Chinese.

If you want to see the Chinese concept working with the Middle East, watch the interview on Al Jazeera from several months ago when they asked China about the damage they were causing in Australia ore mining.  

Short answer from China.. " We could care less... we are here for the ore".

A little less tack than we have used in the West, but the simple truth is as long as oil flows from the Middle East, China doesn't care about anything else.. Sorry Palestine and Kurds.. No help coming.

Ok, let me wrap this up.

2012 is yet another year of violence and stagnation for the Middle East.

The Arab Spring will spread with the fall of Al Assad in Syria.

The Iranians will force a conflict to prevent the Arab Spring from taking place in Iran.

It will not start with Hammas or Hezbollah.

Arabs will not destroy everything they have for the sake of the Persians.

Iran will use " other" players to get the fight underway and they will try desperately to keep the Israeli issue the center of attention after Syria falls.

The problem is they can not survive without Syria as a proxy and they know it.

Yes... 2012.. will see the Iranian conflict come to a head, but it may not be a regional war simply because the Arabs will not burn down their world for the Persians.

The world economy will tank and that will cause issues in other parts of the word the West will not be able to ignore..

Happy New Year!!!!

IRAN'S THREATS AND THE SYRIAN CONNECTION!

I afraid many have missed the mark on why Iran is suddenly making such bold statements about oil flow from the Middle East.

Most of the talk centers around the Iranian Nuclear program, but some of us are not buying that line of logic, at least not just yet.

My bet is the issue is Syria!

The Observer mission showing up with such constant press coverage is simply not going to work out the way Assad and Iran hoped it would.

Getting someone in charge of the team who himself has a very troubled past is not going to insure Iran the report in Jan they are looking for.

The fact of the matter is Iran with each passing day becomes more and more convinced the Puppet Assad is going to fall in Syria.

They grow more and more convinced the Arab Spring is going to overtake Syria and then spread to Iran's youth.

For months now I have beat the drum of Iran being the real trigger for the Middle East.

Not over the nuclear weapons program, but over the Arab Spring.

So, is Iran willing to take the game to the next level?

Yes.

The threats of oil movements being interrupted is a true threat and the US knows it.

Does Iran pull the trigger over the oil issue or does it get a regional war started over the Palestinian, Israeli issue?

Are the Arabs willing to destroy the Middle East over a Persian quest?

If not, the oil war becomes the primary mission and it's all designed to save the future of Iran.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition

ERDOGAN'S HEALTH ... IS IT REALLY AN ISSUE?

The rumors of the Turkish's PM's heath status has been circulating for several weeks now.

His true health status is probably well known in Iran and in Syria as well as the GCC.

There is absolutely no arguing what a vital character he is at this crucial point in time for the region.

rumors of an impending power struggle inside Turkey if Erdogan is unable to continue to effectively lead are going to spread like wildfire.

Perceptions will rule the day and decision will be made based upon both fact and speculation.

Ergdogan having health problems will be like blood in the water near sharks when it comes to the Iranian leadership.

The thought of a distracted Turkey is more than desirable to Iran and Syria.

Anything the two of them can do to take advantage of this potential turmoil in Turkey will be considered.

Indecision on Turkey's part at this critical point in time could spell disaster for the Middle East.

This issue of Erdogan's health will need to be watched very carefully over the next few weeks.

If this story really becomes a concern for Turkish leadership, the Iranian medaling will take place rather quickly.

A distracted Turkey is a dream come true for Syria and Iran and they will do whatever it takes to help make this happen.