LIEBERMAN TO PUTIN??? WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE?

The story goes FM Lieberman arranged to talk to Putin about Russian arms sales to Syria.

I have had hard time believing this was the main topic or even the real reason Lieberman asked for the meeting; side note... it's interesting that Putin agreed!

The typical reaction to a FM wishing to have an additional meeting would be with his or her counterpart; in this case Russian Deputy Prime Minister Zubkov.

So, why did Putin agree and was arms sales to Syria, not the number one topic on the Israeli PM's list right now, really the issue?

If you look at the Israeli public messaging campaign of the past few weeks, you may come to the conclusion this "short notice / unofficial / meeting was part of that continuing messaging plan.

Did PM Lieberman make a point to let Putin hear right from Lieberman's lips to his Putin's ears how serious Israel is about Iran?

Did he waste a one on one meeting with Putin to discuss something as old and worn out as Arms Sales?

Here is the next interesting question that will not be answered by a media announcement!

How did Putin answer?

To me, the reaction of Putin to this meeting is far more important than the real reason it took place.

I think we will see some indication in the near future.

Is Putin now in a position that he has to chose sides?

Did he get the " You are with us or you are against us" speech?

Interesting event to say the least.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=248557

RUMORS... PERCEPTIONS... PARANOIA.. A DEADLY COCKTAIL!

If you look to traditional indicators of pending conflict such as fuel, unit
mobilization ect... ect.. you may not be accurately assessing the current
tension in the Middle East.

For months now I have continued to state Iran cannot and will not accept the
fall of Al Assad and the follow on threat of the Arab Spring showing up in
Iran.

Freedom in Syria spells doom for Iran's Zealots ,with the exception of
Persian Nationalist. ( Another story in itself).

Everyday Iran seems to move closer and closer to a "use or lose" mentality as
their final decision on their future.

To me, one of the prime indicators Iran is in a final stage of desperation
would be the loss of its "proxy" fighters... Syria.. Hezbollah, Lebanon and
Hamas.

Iraq's fledgling relationship is far too immature to place Iraqi support in
Iran's camp in time of warfare; that and the brutal history of the Iran /
Iraq war.

So, with the reports of Hamas beginning to leave Syria and stories of Iran
warning Hamas they will lose support from Iran, I see nothing but increased
danger of confrontation.

Next, consider the perception Iran must have based on the public statements
coming out of Israel?

Iran making public they have placed forces on "a war footing" may just be
somewhat of a media show, but again perception begins to shape events in the
Middle East more than reality.

Now, if Hamas is implementing an exit plan for its relationship with Syria
and Iran, can Hezbollah be far behind?

Yes, Hezbollah is far more tied to Iran and Syria then the Shia Hamas, but
the future of Lebanon is paramount to Hezbollah and Hezbollah knows their
destruction is all but guaranteed in a confrontation between Iran and Israel.

As Israel continues to plan and review second and third order effects of an
attack on Iran, it must be weighing the likelihood of Hamas and Hezbollah
allowing their two organizations to be completely destroyed for the sake of
the Persians!

Lip service is a common practice in the Middle East and Israel understands
this implicitly.

Getting someone to "sit this one out" or just pay lip service is not out of
the question..... Just ask Saudi!

Quietly arranging the GCC or Jordan to make Hamas and the Shia of Lebanon
understand they can limit their pain in the pending war if they just sit on
the sidelines must be a key objective for Israel.

Lebanon and Gaza will not come out of this conflict untouched, but the
ability to rebuild is based upon the limitations Israel places on their
perceived threats.

I simply do not see how the Middle East is going to avoid a confrontation
unlike any we have seen there in the past forty years.



http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran-threatening-to-cut-hamas-funds-a
rms-supply-if-it-flees-syria-1.399612

http://www.debka.com/article/21543/

http://www.debka.com/article/21545/

CAN THE " ARAB SPRING" TAKE PLACE IN A RUSSIAN WINTER?

About a week ago, I read an editorial on why it was the Arab Spring was not taking hold in Russia.

Lots of talk about how the youth of Russia was so Nationalistic they would support anyone, like Putin, who would put Russia back on the World Stage.

To make a long story short, the author was arguing Russia simply was not in a position to

follow the Arab Spring path.

As soon as I was finished reading it, I think it was posted on Al Jazeera, I almost convinced myself he may be on to something.

Well, it is safe to say that I now firmly believe he was and is DEAD WRONG.

The elections in Russia spell a very..... very... troubling word for Mr Putin,, AKA the  KGB KING... and that word is  " Discontent"!!       

Discontent.. the key ingredient for a Russian Spring.... I don't know you will get much done in a Russian Winter....

For months now, Putin has been hard at work using the Arab Spring, like a few others, as a smokescreen to set his plan into motion.

If he was convinced a strain of the Tunisian Virus... Yes.. I still refer to the Arab Spring as the Tunisian Virus... then he has made a huge mistake.

If he believes that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't have it's long range goals for the Muslim  " Stans" than he is even a bigger fool.

If he is about to shove his United Russia party down the throats of the Russian people, then he is making yet another huge mistake and he will also set the stage for the Russian version of the Arab Spring.

Many people are talking about how Putin is trying to turn back the hands of time.

Some are even talking about the " Empire" returning....

All that might be true.. .Putin is an Nationalist to the center of his heart.

The question becomes, can he place a stranglehold on the Russian government again yet at the same time fight off the Social Media driven Arab Spring movement?

Suddenly, Russian has become worthy of keeping an eye on..

One thing is for sure... Syria will give him some level of distraction...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57336102/as-putin-plans-to-stay-many-r

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/2011122115247505931.html

EGYPT'S VISION.. WAS IT REALLY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD?

Well, it looks like the Islamist are going to take the majority control of the Egyptian Parliament.

We all know it has been predicted from the very beginning, but I wonder if the people of Egypt really understand what is taking place?

The combination of the MB and the other Islamist parties such as the Salafi are going to set the stage for the new Egyptian Constitution!

Is that what the people went to the streets for in Jan of this year?

Is that why they tossed out Mubarak.... to have Islamist leadership set the stage for the future of Egypt?

If the majority of the voting population indeed cast their votes in this fashion, then the answer is yes!!!

Isn't that what everyone in the West was praising???

The ARAB SPRING and the rise of Democracy!!!

When it is all said and done, is Egypt still going to be a House Divided?

Will the Egyptian Military accept Islamist control of the new, Democratically elected Parliament?

So... Tell me.... what is the good news from Egypt??????

Someone explain it to the people of Israel please!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/2011121164541437543.html

HISTORY SET TO REPEAT ITSELF?

Two articles worthy of reading.

The first is an interview conducted over a year and a half ago with the
Author of the book, " A Time To Betray".

What is interesting about the interview is how the author talks about the
beginning of the Iranian Revolution and the high hopes the young left leaning
socialist had of forming a new Democracy in Iran!!

Sound familiar?

The " Arab Spring.. Persian style back in 1979!

The outcome paints a predictable picture for the Arab Spring.

I don't necessarily  agree with the Author's prediction of a conflict with Iran, but the storyline of how the youth of Iran were overrun by the Fundamentalist is a dire warning of today's events.

The second article, " Moroccan Wolf in Sheep's clothing", help us realize the
Iranian past is mostly likely the Arab Spring's future.

As I have been saying for sometime now... the Muslim Brotherhood is going to execute their plan slowly and methodically.

Morocco is just another step in the MB's journey.

The Shia must fall just as the " Infidels" must fall!!!!

Pay very close attention to the Author's discussion on the difference between Persians and Arabs...... It hits the nail on the head.



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http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=247340

IRANIAN STUDENTS STORM BRITISH EMBASSY??? NOT SO FAST!

The only people who truly believe the people who stormed the British Embassy were really " Iranian Students" are the leaders of the Iranian government!

The Basij " Thugs" were placed in all the Universities throughout Iran shortly after the uprising in 2009.

Their mission is simple.... disrupt.. threaten... and watch the real students to prevent the beginning of another uprising.

Does anyone think for a minute that a real protest could take place in Iran to the level that an Embassy could be overrun and the Iranian Police not be beating and even shooting people?

Did anyone notice not a single picture of any of the Rioters being injured or carried away while being beaten like most normal students are treated in Iran?

So, it was a setup... a staged event.. I know nobody is stunned by that statement.

By labeling these Thugs as " Students", Iranian leadership thinks it is painting a picture of " solidarity" inside Iran.

Now, I would agree that the "Real" Iranian Students are patriotic enough to support their country if attacked, but I don't believe they would attack and occupy the British Embassy and even if they did, the concept of the Iranian government, who the typical College Student hates, working hand in hand with them is a little far fetched.

Short answer... it doesn't pass the smell test!

Ok, so why did this event take place?

The fact this event took place within hours of rockets being fired from Lebanese land.. land controlled by Hezbollah, cannot be overlooked.

Iran sent yet another message with these two events.

The price of meddling in Syrian affairs can and will be very high!

Don't think for a moment the  attack on the British Embassy was a true act of College Kids in Iran.. .far from it....

Yet, don't think for a moment young Iranians will not rally around their country, if not it's leaders, if Iran is attacked.

Yep.... It's complicated.

http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/meb44.html

AS SYRIA GOES.. SO GOES LEBANON... AND THAT'S THE PROBLEM!

Read some interesting comparative analysis of the impact the events could have on Lebanon.

The interesting part was who  wrote the editorials.

The short answer is both sides of the political fence in Lebanon, pro Syria and anti Syria, both have come to the same conclusion.

If Syria falls into a full scale Civil War, Lebanon will become a proxy battlefield.

The rockets fired today from inside Lebanon towards Israel is a dramatic reminder of how intertwined the entire region really is.

Perhaps this event today was more than just a few rockets fired into Israel.

Perhaps, as I commented last week, it's Iran reminding not just Israel, but everyone just how volatile things can be.

It's common knowledge that the Free Syrian Army is getting some level of support transiting through Lebanon.

Syrian efforts to stop this logistical flow can only make matters worse.

It's only a matter of time before the fighting taking place just inside the Syrian border happens just inside the Lebanese border..... more than just firing at a small group of people 

Rumors of " Safety Zones" continue to abound and the perception in Syria can only be one of immanent intervention.

It's that perception that will drive Al Assad's supports away from him and he knows this.

It's his understanding of this that will lead him to taking desperate actions thus fulfilling the "Rumors".

Sounds crazy, but it's more predestine that most people understand right now.

Can the region stay out of a Regional War???

Everyday could be the day and the stress on the Arab League and the GCC and the Israelis is unrelenting.

Ten months of stress....

How much more can the region withstand?

How many more times must we all hope the leaders of the region don't make the wrong decision?

Personally, I think we ran out of luck three or four months.

Most of the leadership of the region knows what is coming.. they are just trying to put it off as long as they can or perhaps just need more time to prepare.

The odds of us all waking up and suddenly seeing a happier... brighter day for the Middle East is a long .... .long ... long distant dream.