SNAP SHOT / 1ST WEEK OF OCT 2011:

 I've not done one of these for over two weeks now, so here we go.

EGYPT:

Confrontation is still the rule of the day nearly ten months after the great Arab Spring took hold in Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood still holds a majority of the cards and the military's fall from grace is growing worse with each passing day.

Most of the secular socialist youth are growing more and more fearful of ending up in a Sheri Law dominated government that declares Democracy was it's path to power.

Egypt's military has all that it can handle trying to hold on to some form of normal governance while  worrying about the emerging Ottoman Empire and the Palestinian statehood issue and Israel.

Stack on top of this list, the Egyptian economy is just shy of being a complete disaster.

One more stack item to think about.

If the time comes the US actually cast a Veto on the UNSC resolution for Palestinian statehood, the streets of Cairo will be a major impact area.

Don't forget the Brotherhood's desire to keep Egypt in a political and economic shambles.

Protesting is just a great tool to keep this going, even if the Brotherhood states they will not participate.

So, Egypt what is the status of Egypt as of Oct of 2011?

Hard to imagine what the post election environment will be for Egypt.

If the youth thinks the MB and elements associated with them hijacked the election, they will go right back to the streets.

The questions become how much longer can Egypt just sit around like one big Campus protest?

My bet is, it's going to be a long Winter for the Egyptian people.

ISRAEL:

I'm not sure when the last time was Israel got good news to start a week.

With all the talk about tensions with Turkey, it's hard to imagine Turkey actually setting itself up for an open confrontation with Israel.

The posturing by the Ottomans is a high risk adventure, given who could take advantage of the events.

Yep, I'm talking about Iran!

Event with Turkey are somewhat related to the current crisis with the Palestinian issue, but I'm not sure the world sees it that way.

A great cover story of how the conflict seems to be growing from an issue of oil and gas fields continues to get press coverage.

Israel's relationship with Greece  is seen as a counter to the Turkish attitude towards Israel, but perception is the key when it comes to the world media and social networks.

How Iran plays the Palestinian event has been reviewed time and time again, but still the world seems to miss the basic premise; the fall of Assad and Syria sets many other events into motion.

No one has contemplated how these items may interact more than Israel, but that is no guarantee the reaction will be the right one.

Simply put, Israel continues to face the most troublesome and frankly  the most dangerous times since the founding of their country.

The US Secretary of Defense is there for a reason and the world needs to pay much closer attention to what is going on.

IRAN:

To double cross on not to double cross Assad, that is the question inside Iran.

The next key issue is, who is deciding?

The conflict between the Iranian / Persian Nationalist and the Muslim Fanatic is only made the concept of predicting Iran's actions more difficult to predict.

Predicting what Iran is up to or going to be up to is vital to the whole world right now and political infighting is not just a sideshow.

If Iran is going to find a Post Assad relationship, they will have to do it with Ottoman influence taken into consideration.

Creating a violent response over the Palestinian statehood event is an option Iran has with little anyone can do about it.

To save Assad with a regional distraction or not is most likely based on Iran's ability to build a Post Assad plan for Syria.

Tomorrow I will give my update on the GCC and how the Gulf States are coming back into play after months of being off the radar.

It's not going to stay that way for much longer.

The Arab Spring / Summer  / Fall / is heading for the Arab / Europe / American Winter.

Yes.... I said Americas. 

More to follow.

SO WHAT HAPPENS IF ISRAEL SAYS " YES" TO 67 BORDERS?

I read yet another academic explanation as to why Israel should agree to the entire Palestinian border requirements for their "peace deal".

Netanyahu has explained the tactical facts in the past, but lets review the big picture and keep the explanation simple.

Technology:

The changes to weaponry since the 67 war are too many to list.

Imagine Israel trying to defend it's territory that would be physically only  few kilometers wide from weapons that could strike it's entire area even from deep in Lebanon?

 What would Israel rely on?

Palestinian "good faith" ?...  It's "word" that they would not allow weapons to be launched from the West Bank?

Was that not the promise when Israel handed over Gaza?

What would be the statement from the new Palestinian government?

" We are not responsible and we are doing all that we can to stop the attacks"?

Times have changed.

Weapons and enemies have changed!

The concept of Israel defending it's cities from indefensible locations is simply out of the question.

For those who think a new government in Israel may  bring about a change in commitment, guess again.

What Israeli leader or party is going to capitulate the entire survival of Israel for the sake of peace with just one group?

The 67 border issue is completely unrealistic  as a starting point for future negotiations.

The issue of settlements in the West Bank, although difficult, is perhaps the only real issue that could have any traction.

Israel is never going back to the borders of 1967.

Wars are fought and nations lose territory.. this is the history of mankind.

If Israel goes to war and the territories are taken from them, then again the course of human history will have changed.

My warning is simple.... Israel will not give back land it sheds it's blood for!

If the Palestinian people want the 67s borders, then they will have to convince the rest of the Middle East and probably Turkey as well to war with Israel.

I am not sure what the answer is, but the 1967 border issue is dead and will remain dead until Israel is dead and if that happens.. I'm not sure there will be anyone nearby to live on the newly acquired land. 

IS SYRIA REACHING STATUS QUO  ?

For two nights now I have talked about the wishful thinking of Iran when it comes to Syria and how the outcome of Syria will shape the Palestinian event.

The attached article paints a picture the Iranians simply don't want to see.

What makes this article extremely interesting is the author!

It's one thing for some academic recluse who goes from the classroom to the coffee shop living in a world of hypothetical to write their opinion of Syria.

The author of this story is doesn't fit that mold.

The future of Syria is not heading  in the direction Iran needs it to.

Does that mean Iran is leaning towards pulling the trigger on the Palestinian event?

Perhaps, but I see more and more indications of Iran trying to find a way to shape the " New Syria".

A " New Syria" that Russia and Iran could be working on.

A " New Syria" based on some compromised leadership that Iran can still have the majority of influence over.

Sunni Businessmen or some " understanding" with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood... Ya I know... Fat chance...... could be what Iran is working on.

What the author of this article brings to the table is the disturbing reality of a Syria on the edge of falling into Civil War regardless of actions by Iran or any other sympathetic nation.

I have tried to talk myself into see a way Iran could survive this Syrian disaster for the simple reason I understand all too well what the second order effect would be.

Everyday brings a new piece to the jigsaw puzzle of the Middle East.

The problem seems to be the new pieces are showing up faster than the puzzle masters can figure out where they fit!

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192395146840552.html

IRAN IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR

Last night I talked about Iran’s ability to not pull the trigger on the Palestinian issue if they believed Assad could survive.

As I stated, the ability of the Palestinian people to push Israel to the brink of warfare is limited without the support of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Having said that, an over reaction by the IDF would force Hamas to respond and the counter to Hamas may start the spiraling of events no even Iran could prevent.

So, the simple answer is, just because Assad is potentially out of the woods, I’m not sold that he is, the Palestinian issue still has the ability to overtake the region.

Iran’s ‘ instigators’ may not be activated, but young emotional Palestinian protestors could still provide the spark.

We should also remember  the ‘Crazy Eddie” factor can come into play as well.

Radical groups who owe nothing to the Palestinian people or Iran can provide the same spark.

Drawing Israel into a larger conflict can be the goal of groups Iran has no control over.

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am these elements are the ones we should really be concerned with.

 Over thinking all the possibilities of the Palestinian statehood event is easy to do.

DOES IRAN BELIEVE SYRIA IS UNDER CONTROL?

For the past several months I have voiced my opinion of just how desperate Iran was to avoid the loss of Syria.

My opinion that Iran would risk everything including a potential regional war to keep from losing Syria and having the Arab Spring spread into Iran stands.

The question becomes is Iran beginning to think Assad may survive?

It's a critical question given the extent Iran would go to prevent it from happening.

If they believe Assad is going to make it, then they may not pull the trigger on the Palestinian statehood issue.

In some ironic twist of fate, the survival of Assad may lead to a failed movement by the Palestinian front.

Sure the Palestinian people can protest and even become violent, but without the proxy support of Hamas and Hezbollah, the ability of the issue Turing into a regional war is all but gone.

I still firmly believe Iran is building a 'post Assad' plan incase they have to let him fall, but the fall will be on Iran's terms not the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood or the Ottomans'.

Following what events are related and impact what other events in the Middle East is always a complex process.

The trick is to keep the " Big Picture" simple.

No  threat of losing the Syrian Satellite and Iran simply doesn't see the need to inflame the Palestinian event..

We shall see.

PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN SPEAKS TO CNN’S ZAKARIA.

If you happen to catch the interview on CNN with Erdogan, you witnessed perhaps a historical speech on the future of the Middle East.

I have talked to the issue of the pending new Ottoman Empire, sometimes somewhat jokingly, but any doubts I may have had disappeared!

Erdogan painted a picture of Israel bleaker than any I’ve seen in the last few years, to include Iran’s rants.

That is a telling statement!

Erdogan’s words seem more than a political statement on a world stage.

Erdogan’s words bumped right up against the concept of being a dire warning of Israel’s future.

It is clear Erdogan, Turkey, is going to step in front of the Palestinian statehood issue and the future of the Palestinian people.

His words on Syria, paint a similar picture.

Erdogan and Turkey are going to shape the future of the Syrian people with or without the input of Iran.

I’m not sure what the Arab world thinks of this Ottoman viewpoint of the Middle East, but in Gaza, Erdogan is quickly becoming a hero.

His “advice” to Egypt on their pending election process was not well received by the Muslim Brotherhood nor the Egyptian military.

As I have said before, the Egyptian military has always been and will continue to be fearful of a new Ottoman Empire.

On Iran:

Of all the statements, comments on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were the most disturbing.

“  No attack on Iran will come from Turkish soil, unless Turkey is attacked”.

The message inside the statement is this; no US, Turkish airbases will be utilized for air attacks on Iran!

Not sure the US didn’t already understand that, but his public statement on CNN was not for the US population, but for the population of the Middle East.

It may have seemed as if he was defending Iran, but I think his point was more along the lines of, ‘ Turkey will decide what Iran should or should not be questioned on’.

As soon as he commented on Iran’s nuclear program, he asked why the issue of Israel’s nuclear weapons is not discussed.

Again, the theme here seem to be, Turkey will take lead on issue of Iran.

So, if Palestinian statehood is the issue….. Call Turkey…

If Syria is the issue……Call Turkey

If Iran is the issue……. Call Turkey

If Egyptian election process is the issue…. Yep…… Call Turkey!!!

Anyone see a pattern here????

It is now clear my theory of Turkey no longer being concerned about joining the EU has allowed a Nationalist like Erdagon to strike out in  a new direction.

So, are we witnessing a new Ottoman Empire in the making?

Perhaps on a limited, regional level, but Turkey will not decide the future of the Arab and Persian people.

Erdagon may think he has everything going his way, but oil and alliances based on oil are thicker than Nationalistic dreams of past Empires.

How the Arabs, the EU, the Persians, the Russians and the US react to this “new Turkey” will be interesting to watch.

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” might be a concept most in the west will be quick to talk about, but this theory doesn’t hold true for Ottomans to Arabs or Arabs to Persians.  

Perhaps two thousand years ago, but this is the 21^st century and a new chapter in world history.





ISRAEL’S OPTIONS 

So, does Israel continue to stay on the defense? 

I would be willing to bet they do not. 

The question becomes what can they do? 

For months now, I have talked about the Iranians needing a distraction from 

the Arab Spring and the crisis in Syria. 

It's clear, to most, the Palestinian issue has become the centerpiece of the 

Iranian distraction plan. 

If anyone understands this and understands what it might lead to, it's 

Israel! 

As I alluded to yesterday, it is unrealistic to think Israel would not come 

up with its own option of a " Distraction Plan". 

As  I was listening to Netanyahu give his speech, I thought, at least for a 

moment, I figured out the 'Israeli Distraction Plan'. 

Iran's nuclear weapons program! 

Netanyahu's statement about what Iran was really trying to achieve should not 

have gone unnoticed in the room. 

I still have the opinion the Iranian " Master Plan", before the Arab Spring 

began, was to delay the world's actions just long enough to achieve nuclear 

weapons status; a status Israel will NEVER allow to happen. 

The Arab Spring knocked Iran off of their course to nuclear recognition and 

the Syrian event put them completely on the Defense. 

Two things had to happen for Iran to achieve the Master Plan. 

               1. They had to have a distraction so huge the Arab Spring could not 

come to Iranian land. 

               2. Assad had to find a way to survive, at least for the near term. 

So what is Israel possibly trying to do? 

Simple, put the Iranian nuclear threat issue back on the table for all the 

world to see. 

As important as the Palestinian statehood issue is, the fear of a war in the 

Middle East based upon Iran's nuclear program is a far greater concern. 

Making this the defining issue  is a risk the Israelis just may be willing to 

take. 

Brinkmanship! 

It is not a historical term limited to the US and Russian past. 

I'm not sold this is the course Israel will take, but it is an option that 

must be left on the table. 

How bad the Palestinian issue becomes will decide Israel's next move. 

Are there any other options for Israel? 

Yes! 

What is the issue Iran is trying to avoid? 

Syria and the Arab Spring. 

It is easily  within Israel's capability to "support" the resistance in Syria 

without getting their fingerprints on the event. 

I would not be surprised if this was taking place as I type this. 

Arms Merchants are a strange and mysterious tool in the hands of many 

governments. ( Wink..Wink... Nod.. Nod.. ) 

When was the last time Israel really concerned itself over  a Sunni / Shi 

fight?  ( Win ..Win in their book) 

What is going to take place is extremely hard to predict. 

Who are the major players other than the Palestinians, Israelis and the 

Iranians? 

Egypt, Turkey, Saudi, Russia, the US ect...ect... 

One thing I am confident of, Israel is not going to wait to see what becomes 

of this event. 

They know who is behind  the real danger and they will not stay on the 

Defense much longer. 

It's not their nature.