TURKEY BECOMES A REFUGEE CAMP!

The numbers continue to climb as more and more Syrians cross into Turkey avoiding Assad's assault on his own towns.

It was noteworthy to see the UN was supporting the process.

Turkey is not happy with the event and what support is left for Assad is quickly slipping away.

The question becomes, how does Turkey prevent these Refugee camps from becoming 'base camps' for the resistance fighters?

Checking for weapons is a process that requires time and coordination.

Depending on how these folks are crossing the border will determine if the fighters can cross with them.

The tactic of leaving the area and then returning when the response force has left is a typical event in what could become 'Guerilla Warfare'.

Given the size of the force Syria is reported to be placing in the area, it would be foolish for the resistance fighters to stay and engage them.

Fighting ' hit and run' tactics is a likely course of action the resistance will execute.

The concept of some armed group operating from Turkey is not a concept the Turkish government will be thrilled with.

The history of the Kurds in Northern Iraq is way too fresh in Turkish leadership's mind.

As to the size of the resistance, some reports today indicated they numbered perhaps as many as two thousand!

Confirmation of their size would be very difficult, but if that number is even close to being accurate, the Syrian military is in for a prolonged event.

Assad is going to have to assess just how long he wants this particular battle to last.

I would not rule out the use of air assets / rotor wing / if the fighting become too intense.

If the number of tanks is truly over thirty, supported by field artillery, then the military may just place the city under siege.

If that type of firepower is utilized, the ability to capture it with the media will surly happen.

As I said two days ago, this event will be unlike any of the others so far in Syria.

Within the next two days, Syria may look more like a live feed from Libya than a simple protest in the streets of a small Syrian town.



IRAN’S VERY DANGEROUS GAME, IF IT IS A GAME!!

Given who runs the website mentioned in this article, one has to remember nothing is done by accident.

No independent thinker decided to get on this very controlled website and babble away on a topic that can easily lead to a war!

So, what is the message behind such an act?

Is Iran looking to see who is watching the website and what response this story may get?

Is it part of a larger message to Israel and the US about how serious Iran is on the topic?

One thing is for sure, Iran is not very good at analyzing how their enemies will respond to Iran’s statements and actions.

Whatever the game / message / is here, it is a very dangerous ploy and Iran will most likely not be prepared for any real reaction that comes from It’s enemies.

That’s not to say anyone is going to do anything based upon a simple post on a website.

What it will do it strengthen the case Israel and the US continue to build against Iran’s nuclear program.

As a good friend of mine always says, “sometimes you have to wait for the next move to understand the first move”.

My hunch is these two articles are interrelated.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=224149

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/jun/08/iran-blogging

SYRIA:

Turkey’s growing frustration with Assad’s government did not go unnoticed today.

When you stack Turkey’s frustration with pending UNSC resolutions, Assad has to be wondering just how much longer he can afford to stick with the hard-line game plan his Brother and the Iranian’s have come up with.

I am not insinuating Assad is guilt free on the course of action Syria has traveled in the past two months, but most realize he is not in total control.

He also has to realize he has long passed the point of no return as a leader.

Assad spends everyday realizing he has fewer and fewer options for solving this crisis.

With Iranian leadership whispering in his ear on what his next move should be, Assad will most likely just grow more and more desperate.

He is past the point of pulling away from Iran and dumping his Brother and friends.

He has to living a sinking feeling with each passing hour.

In a word, desperate!!

He may become so desperate that he allows or begs Iran to solve the issue for him.

Remember what I have said for months now about ‘distractions’.

The more desperate the situation in Syria becomes, the more dramatic the ‘distraction’ will have to be.





JISR AL SHUGHUR

It’s clear Assad, or whoever is calling the shots in Syria, is going to assault the town of Jisr al Shughur, the question became, why did it not happen today?

The rumors of defections in the Syrian military have been around for several weeks, but this event may just be a sign of how bad this issue is getting.

I can think of two reasons why the crushing response promised by Assad did not show up today.

1. The Syrian military knows it has a well entrenched enemy with a resolve to fight.

1. That opposition has the advantage of being on the defense, a HUGE advantage to those of you who do not understand the laws of warfare!.

2. They could be supported by military members who have defected.

                                                              i.      Not too many military members decide to defect and not take their weapons with them.

                                                            ii.      When a unit leader, such as the young Officer  shown on Al Jazeera today, defects,  it is not uncommon for a percentage of his forces to go with him.

                                                          iii.      Assad may simply not have the troop density to execute a mission that will call for a four to one advantage; not to mention possibly not being properly equipped for such a conflict.

2. It could be the Syrian military had to swap out what units they plan on reentering the town with.

1. Assad would be crazy to utilize a unit that has already shown a propensity to have defectors in its ranks.

2. To have yet another unit show up and suddenly refuse to attack the opposition would be disastrous for Assad.

Regardless what the reason is and I think one of my two hunches is correct, the next event in Syria may not be like any we’ve seen yet.

SIDE NOTE:

It appears there was a violent reaction in the Palestinian camps in Syria, over  the past two days.

It seems the parents of the young Palestinians killed in the NAKSA protest are upset the PA authority in the camps allowed their youth to be killed for the sake of drawing the attention away from events in Syria.

It’s even rumored Assad had them paid to take part in the event.

The last thing Assad can deal with is a Palestinian uprising in Syria.

Talk about the Law of Unintended Consequences!!!

You can bet the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood  / SMB/ will take advantage of this event.

It’s ok for the young Palestinian kids in the camps of Syria to die for the SMB but heaven forbid they should be sacrificed for the sake of Assad!!!

SYRIA AND NASKA DAY EVENTS.... WHO KILLED THE MOST?

A great deal of confusing information coming out of the NASKA DAY  event.

The number of dead, and how they died seems to be changing by the hour.

If the reported number of 20 killed and over 200 wounded is correct, I'm not sure Israel will have a sound argument they were, "more prepared" this time than several weeks ago.

The fact they warned Arab Leaders they would not allow Israel's borders to be threatened may have had some impact in the Arab League arena, but it was music to the ears of Iran and Assad!!!

As I stated several weeks ago, during the last protest along the border, it is very difficult to give order to only hit you target in the legs when you are shooting for over a hundred yards away.   

Hollywood make a real fantasy world the common public may believe when they show troops taking phenomenal shots from extreme distances. 

If 'Sniper' where being used, then the caliber of weapon could easily lead to a fatal wound even if someone is shot in the leg.

Actually, hitting someone in the leg can often be a fatal wound.

So, did the NASKA DAY events provide the results Iran and Syria where looking for?

It will depend on the response over the next few days.

A little more fuel and a little more fire is the real goal for Iran.

Here is the problem, Syria lead the 'who can kill the most' race today!!!

NASKA doesn't mean a thing to the people protesting in Syria against Assad.

The concept of drawing attention away from Syria is known by everyone, but it is simply not going to work.

It is foolish for Iran or Assad to think for a single second the people of the Middle East are suddenly going to turn their entire attention span over to twenty dead along the Israeli border!!

Syria is the major topic in the Middle East and it will continue to be the major topic.

The danger becomes when Iran realizes Assad is still in trouble and the SMB is still posed to take control in Syria.

If the NAKSA DAY events are not enough to get Al Jazeera off their back, then they will have to come up with something more dramatic.

That is the real danger!!!

WEEKEND WRAP UP:

Fast moving front on several topics this weekend.

KUWAIT:

Kuwait's turn at another round of protest was attempted.

Like most 'Tunisian Virus' events, it takes several attempts to see if things can really get moving or not.

It will be interesting to see how the GCC reacts to any further events in Kuwait given Kuwait's somewhat reluctant attitude towards the GCC deployment to Bahrain.

The good King of Saudi may just let Kuwait simmer a little.

Is his way of thinking, it may be a good way to scare them back in to the fold.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=211321  ( Kuwait)

SYRIA:

Assad continues to dig a deeper and deeper hole for the Syrian government.

Just when it looked like, to some people that is, he was gaining the upper hand, he allows his forces to go on a killing spree!! DUMB!! Perhaps fatal to his rule.

I was fairly convinced the murder of the 13 yr old Boy was going to grab some degree of traction and it appears it has accomplished exactly that.

You can call people names, you can label them, you can cast political umbrellas over them, but one thing stands true in this world.

99.9 percent of the people in this world are extremely emotional over the fate of children.

It may soon reach the point that Assad can simply not kill  people fast enough to keep ahead of the wave of public hatred.

War Crime / Crimes Against Humanity charges are not that far away, regardless of what Russian and China will support.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201164124745790709.html Syria

YEMEN:

It makes perfect since Saleh would travel to Saudi for treatment, but the opportunity to not allow him to return is huge for Saudi.

His status as a 'quest' could be extended by the King for a very long time.

The problem is, there will be no other government to fill the void.

Stack that on top of the events in Southern Yemen and Yemen is still going to go from bad to worse!

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201164164346765100.html Yemen

ISRAEL:

Interesting that Lebanon is pressuring Syria and obviously Iran to limit the NAKSA day events, at least from the Lebanese border area.

That speaks to just how worried the Lebanese government, what government they have, is about their own stability.

People start getting shot, people start running around spreading rumors and the next thing you know Lebanon is reacting to its own crisis regardless of NAKSA Day events.

I would have loved to have been listening in on the phone when Iran got that call!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=223612  Israel



NAKSA DAY:

Israel is getting ready for what could prove to be a dangerous weekend.

The plan for NAKSA Day protest is on par with the events of two weeks ago, but Israel will have a few new tricks up their sleeve this time around.

I'm not sure Lebanon's military is in the mood for taking the blame of letting civilians push past their guards along their border.

Iran is planning on this three day event to be yet another distraction to events in Syria.

As long as Israel can keep from killing unarmed protestors, this event may not play out the way Iran would like it.

So, that is the key issue.

Can Israel keep the event from becoming too violent?

It will be violent to some degree, but dozens shot or multiple deaths is the road to success for Iran.

I have said this before, but look for Iran to insure someone gets shot!

They may have to get someone other than the IDF to do the shooting, but the key is Iran needs blood on TV.

Israel knows this and I would think they are planning  how to prevent this.

If I was the IDF commander this weekend, I would video every unit and every action the entire three days.

Get out in front of the press coverage before the press coverage even starts!

How this weekend plays out is important to Israel, but it is critical to Iran.

If they cannot create the media environment they need, then the Syrian story will be front page again by Sunday morning.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=223239





BAHRAIN; SO WHAT DID STANDING DOWN GET THEM?

Don’t’ believe for a minute the leadership in Bahrain has decided to negotiate with the Shi.

Lifting the emergency was nothing more than a simple placating   move to the ‘powers’ who are questioning Bahrain’s actions.

The problem  was the Shi knew it was coming.

They wasted no time stepping  back out into the streets and unfortunately, the Bahrain Police pickup right where they left off as well!

There is one real difference.

The ‘Peninsula Shield Forces’ are still in Bahrain and will be for the foreseeable future.

That message is still out there for Iran to see and think about.

Bahrain’s leadership may have taken anther factor into consideration, other than showing the West they were willing to give in to some degree.

It could be the GCC saw an opportunity for Bahrain to relax just a little given the situation in Syria was sucking up all the bandwith / Media.

It could also be the GCC and their ‘friends’ might have wanted to ‘smoke out’ potential Iranian instigators by letting them take to the streets again.

Sometimes one has to make a move in order to see one’s opponent’s next move!

Where events in Bahrain go now is an issue that will need to be watched.

Again, the media eyes are on Syria and Yemen and Al Jazeera is not over zealous about covering events in Bahrain as long as the deaths are avoided.

If Bahrain did it’s homework over the past two months, the authorities may have an idea of who needs to be watched and who may need to be brought in for ‘ questioning’!

Is Bahrain out of the woods?

Absolutely not!!!

Yet, if they can manage to stay the fourth level story for the media behind, Syria, Yemen, Libya, then they may have bought themselves a period of time and who knows what will happen in the Middle East over a short period of time.