RAFAH AND HOW ISRAEL WILL REACT:

Egypt has stated for several months now they were going to reopen the entrance to Gaza at Rafah and now it appears it’s going to happen.

So what does it mean?

To Israel it is just another indicator of the changing relationship with Egypt.

It also means the tolerance of Hamas is going to shrink.

For Egypt it is a calculated risk that could draw the reaction of the US.

Egypt needs financial support and even if the President wants to give it to them, it must still make it past Congress.

For Hamas, it’s a classic example of ‘be careful what you ask for’.

So, will the Rafah become a benchmark event?

It’s hard to tell, but I will assure everyone it’s a dangerous indicator of where things are heading.

The question becomes, does anyone other than Egypt try to take advantage of the event?

We must assume Hamas knew of the pending announcement before Egypt went public.

We must assume Hamas and Egypt, by way of the MB, have a plan for this event.

Does the fact that Egypt decided to open this point into Gaza indicate the influence of the MB in Egyptian government?

Remember, there is no love between the Egyptian military and the MB; or at lease there didn’t use to be?



SNAPSHOT ON A FEW HOT ISSUES:

Yemen:

 As predicted, Yemen continued down a dangerous path in the past 24 hrs.

How much the fighting escalates is hard to tell right now, but the possibility of slowing things down anytime soon are not good.

If the fighting escalates to military units on military units, then the next phase could be much worse.

I don’t hold out much hope for Yemen calming down.

Israel:

Binyamin Netanyahu set what the Arab’s consider a very hard line for future talks with the PA.

To young members of  Hamas and other fanatical groups, the future is nothing but violence!

Morocco:

There is trouble brewing there and the indications are things could get worse in the near future.

The police there are taking a harder line than in the past few months and that could set in motion violent times.

Egypt:

Announcing Mubarak is gong to stand trial for the deaths of the protestors is going to entrench the GCC state’s leaders more than ever.

The announced new round of protest set for the end of the week may not get the reception from the military they have in the past.

The Egyptian government is about to reach it’s end with people marching in the streets.

The next round of protest could turn ugly.

Syria:

Over 1000 dead!

Egypt total was 800!!!

Today was somewhat quiet, but the indications are the protestors are starting to realize they are unorganized and a quiet spell could mean ‘ plotting’ is taking place.

I can assure you that is the opinion of the Assad administration.

No protest on the streets right now is a dangerous sign in the opinion of the Syrian government.

I am beginning to believe Syria is going to see Lebanon as a ‘breading ground’ for opposition plotting.

Lebanon:

Ok; this is the one that really has me worried!

Lebanon is facing a dangerous future on two fronts.

1. The future of Hezbollah depends on the future of Syria.
2. The sectarian sides continue to grow more paranoid of events in Syria.

Some many things could ignite the flames in Lebanon, I don’t see how this will not eventually happen.

The UN / STL issue will have to be carefully controlled or it might just push the country into civil war.

Several other countries with issues are boiling as I right this post.

The Middle East and North Africa are so volitie it is nearly impossible to track every issue.

Oh ya!

I will look at Spain in the next few days.

It appears someone is trying to get the ‘ Tunisian Virus’ spreading in Spain.



PAKISTAN AND THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE:

There has been a lot of talk about so called embarrassment handed to the Pakistani  military after the UBL event.

I am not of the opinion the Pak military was embarrassed

They run their country with an iron fist and no one will ever convince me they had no idea the number one terrorist in the world was ¼ mile from their primary military academy.

So, the storyline may say they are ‘embarrassed’, but I have a different theory.

The Pak military is far more worried about losing the confidence of the Pak public!

Going to be at night thinking the Taliban or other fanatical groups can stay where they want or more importantly attack where they please is not the picture of the Pak public the military desires.

Confidence and the loss of such is the glue that holds a military together and a nation that leans on it’s military like Pakistan does needs ever ounce of ‘confidence’ it can manage.

The attack on the Navy base was not as bold as the one on the Military HQ a few years ago.

That attack was even more ‘embarrassing’ than the Navy base event.

Confidence or embarrassments are arguable topics, but the issue of ‘concern’ could be taking center stage.

The article attached brings up a legitimate concern.

Can the Pakistani military provide the level of protection required for a nuclear weapon’s program?

Who does this question apply to?

The Pak public?

The People of India?

The US and it’s Allies?

Let me give you the answer that really matters.

The question applies to the fanatical groups in and around Pakistan.

The concept of targeting an operation or location is based upon two simple factors.

1.      How important is the target to the cause and the owner of the target?

2.      Is it possible to execute the mission?

If the groups that would like to see the government of Pakistan fall believe the nuclear weapons program is a valuable enough target and they believe the target is approachable, then the threat equation goes way.. way .. up!!

Now, compound this problem with the concept of not actually having to be successful  achieving the mission.

Just imagine the CNN / FOX / Al Jazeera / news story of a nuke power plant under attack or a nuke weapons site being in a sixteen hour firefight like the one at the Pak Navy base?

Now, imagine this taking place during the middle of the trading day on Wall Street?

What is the definition of a ‘ successful mission’?

What is the confidence level after such an event taking place?

Like I said, I don’t buy the ‘embarrassed’ storyline with Pakistan, but I do worry about the confidence level the fanatics have in ‘embarrassing’ the Pak Military.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7c98ddc-84b1-11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1N8ckQ4qe



WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING WEEK!

You can just about take your pick of what situation this week is worthy of keeping track of.

The following article talks to the issue of Yemen and in my opinion, Yemen could be the story of the coming week.

The GCC is beyond the point of frustration with Saleh.

The lines are drawn and I am afraid the possibility of Civil War has gone way up.

Saudi now must consider yet another dramatic move such as it did in Bahrain.

A Civil War in Yemen is not a new event to Saudi, but the stability of the region is much less predictable than in the past.

Last year when Saudi sent troops to ‘support’ Yemen in a regional conflict along Saudi’s border, things didn’t go real well!

Saudi military members becoming prisoners was embarrassing to say the least.

Does Yemen have the potential to destabilize the GCC?

No, but Oman, would have to consider the ramifications of a border that is not secure.

So, what does Yemen really mean to the rest of the world?

Two issues:

1. The US is knee deep in a fight against UBL fanatics in Yemen and the badguys stand to make great gains from the pending collapsed government.

2. Iran gets exactly what it wants and needs; an event on the Saudi border that ties up the GCC and keeps them on Defense.

So; what else needs to be watched this week?

The usual issues are there and although they didn’t pop up today, they will make headlines soon.

SYRIA:

Syria  simply can’t resist killing people and nothing seems to indicate they intend on stopping. 

If the Kurds will show up in force, the momentum of the protest could change, but the Kurds learned a hard lesson after Desert Storm when it comes to Western Support.

Assad may have gained some level of assurance from the US President’s speech this last week; A sad truth that again goes back to the issue of ‘Perception’.

Confidence is a dangerous  concept for Assad right now. 

ISRAEL and the PA:

Some are of the opinion the President of the US is back peddling after the reactions to his speech this week.

Regardless, the 1967 border issue has proven to be far too emotional for not just the PA but for Israel as well.

As I said last week, ‘ Deeds before Words’ seems to be the demand from the Arabs.

Impasse is the norm and the norm is not going to change anytime soon.

IRAN:

 Not sure what level of information will come out  this week on the   on going power struggle.

With all the external issues around Iran, mainly Syria, and the persistent internal  struggle, Iran is not in a position to respond to more bad news.

I am still of  the opinion, unlike many watching the Middle East, the events of the ‘ Tunisian Virus’ are not all going Iran’s way!

When Iran states they are ‘founders of the Arab Spring’, I see that as nothing more than smoke and mirrors topped off with wishful thinking.

The ability for the ‘youth’ of Iran to standup against the Government is growing with each passing day.

The rest of the world may not see it, but it is taking place.

Iran knows all too well, they are on the verge of social strife and that is a huge factor behind the internal power struggle.

This week will be no different from the past twenty; with the exception we may add Yemen to the open conflict list.

The entire Middle East continues to simmer, but it’s reaching a bowling point sooner than most think!

EGYPT AND ISRAEL:

 BOTH HAVE HUGE PROBLEMS COMING UP.

Two articles that both talk to two very important issues.

The first one is very well written, but misses a key point / question I think needs to be asked.

It is not unusual a military that is the last agency standing after a complete collapse of government does a poor job of playing Legislative, Judicial leader?

Remember, the Egyptian Military is not known for being a compassionate organization, even before the revolution.

A military that is fatigued and lacking sound civilian leadership is not going to be in a position of serving the public in a positive way.

The guidance for day to day actions are probably less than detailed.

The realization that they are the last stand between an Egypt and total social disorder could account for the overreaction to even the most simplistic of events.

A nation of laws and civil order, as oppressive as they were, is a drastic change to where they stand today.

The social dreamers, who somehow thought they were going to tear down the government of Egypt and simply walk into a utopia of freedoms and tranquility, are getting a hard lesson in reality.

I have no doubt the author of this article is correct in the assumption many of those arrested are not guilty of anything other than being near a very paranoid military.

Right now in Egypt, if you look like a Duck and walk like a Duck and Sound like a Duck, the military is going to think you are a Duck!

Ok, enough of sticking up for the last truly functional structure of the Egyptian Government.

I do have one observation I think the author of this story has missed.

It seems the collection of ‘arrested / detained’ individuals is concentrated with left leaning non traditional Muslim groups.

Of all the people who have been reportedly rounded up in the past three months, I wonder how many are members of the Muslim Brotherhood?

In the minds of the military leadership, it could very well be they see the destruction of Egypt’s government based on a left leaning, academic movement.

Remember how many Times I have talked about the power of perception?

If the ‘perception’ of the Egyptian military is such, then it would make sense this is the category of people they would target.

Those they feel are responsible for the destruction, and destruction is what key military leaders believe has happened,  must not be allowed to make matters worse.

Does this answer the question as to why the MB on  is not being targeted?

Well, it could be they are not making  the ‘noise’ the young modern Egyptians are and as such, they are not on the ‘radar’.

It could also be  the MB influence inside the Egyptian Military has dramatically changed.

It is common knowledge the MB was a primary target of the military during the Mubarak years.

But, as  Egypt began to fall into the social abyss, desperate leaders may have joined forces to save Egypt from a fate riviling ‘ Mad Max’.

“ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”.

Sound far fetched, not count it out.

The one thing the old Egyptian Military and the MB have in common and always have had in common is being ruthless and being conservative.

 Egypt is in a terrible mess and the elections are not going to solve their problems.

They could make them worse.

The MB and the Military know it and they both may do whatever it takes to save what is left of Egypt.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/2011519172611166398.html

The second story gives us yet another hint at just how bad the relationship between the US and Israel has become.

Netanyahu knows Israel’s back is now against the wall perhaps like never before.

The wars in the past, had a common denominator, the backing of the US.

Most of us do not believe the US would stand by and watch the destruction of Israel, but the people of Israel may not feel the same way after this week.

Again, the issue of ‘perception’ comes into play.

What is even more important is how Iran perceived the President’s speech!

His comments about Iran did not go unnoticed, but the true discovery for Iran may be in the perception of a change in US support for Israel.

Iran will not believe the US has abandoned Israel, in fact, most official comments from Iran spoke to the issue of the President still playing to the goals of Israel.

Yet, one can not overlook the theory Iran may have a greater perception of the US simply standing on the sidelines as the Middle East unravels.

Comments that painted a picture of the US taking a ‘ it’s up to the people’ attitude, will be studied by Iran in great detail.

It is very clear to Iran, internally, the US is not going to intervene, at this time, with events in Syria.

Iran knows the talk of sanctions is as it always has been, a Paper Tiger.

For Iran to even contemplate the US will take a ‘ sideline’ stances in the Middle East, could prove to be disastrous.

Enter the question of Saudi.

Has the President’s policy shift lead to a potential confrontation between Iran and the GCC,  a Saudi run concept?

I stated two days ago,  Saudi and the GCC have something in common with Israel and they have seen it coming for several months now.

The US is perceived as pulling away from all of them!

True?

Who knows and who cares!!

Remember; “Perceptions”.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/20/us-obama-mideast-netanyahu-idUSTRE74I7L720110520

DID WE JUST PUSH SAUDI INTO CHINA'S ARMS?

So how did the President's speech go today?

For those who are his loyal followers, it was a brilliant speech.

For those that appose him, he abandoned Israel.

For the Arabs, it didn't go far enough.

For Israel, it was a betrayal.

So, did anything really change?

YES!

For the first time the US stated the policy of the US will be based on the 1967 borders concept!

For Israel, that is a monumental change that only adds to the mounting bad news of the past four months.

So, is this the story of the day?

NO!

The story of the day was the perception by Saudi and our other Gulf State allies the US is abandoning  them as well.

Many in the US will see the US taking  a ' case by case' attitude with the events in the Middle East.

That is not how our allies, both Arab and Israeli will see the 'new US policy'.

What Saudi and Israel both have in common is the perception they have been abandoned.

Again, as I have said for months now, perception is reality in the Middle East.

So, what does this mean to the US?

There can be a clear winner in this new policy shift.

The problem is, it is probably not the US or its Allies.

The winners could and probably will be China and Russia.

Yep!

Sound crazy?

It's not!

If Saudi feels abandon, they will do two things.

1. They will reach out for new strategic partners, and in fact they already have.

China.

2. They will begin to realize the US's new attitude of ' we should not lead the world' will mean one thing to them; "it's time to cowboy up"!

Saudi's defense appropriations' will go into overdrive.

Don't be shocked if Saudi gets into the Nuclear Weapons development business quick!

In their eyes, Ali knows ( Lord Knows) the US will not do anything to stop it.

So, was the President's speech a success or a failure?

Time will tell, but we live in very interesting times!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/05/18/obama.saudi.arabia/index.html





LEBANON’S PROBLEM WITH SYRIA:

It’s not hard to recognize the continued pressure the events in Syria are placing on Lebanon and the emotional comments in this article illustrates my point.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/18/gemayel-the-situation-in-syria-is-unacceptable/

I found Assad’s comment his forces had “made some mistakes in the past few weeks” pathetic given his tanks were firing on yet another border town today.

I’m sure the Sunni population of Lebanon found Assad’s comments hard to swallow.

So, what does the future hold for Lebanon as events in Syria continue to unfold?

Sectarian tension is simmering in both countries and Lebanon can only sit and wait for the next event to take place on it’s border.

The Lebanese Military is conflicted given the influence of the Hezbollah dominated government.

Sunni members of the military watching Sunni families running for their lives from Syrian Tanks can only add tension to Lebanon.

To put it simply, Lebanon could slide into conflict with little or no warning, thus making events in the Middle East even more complicated, if that’s possible!

The President’s Address on Thursday night will have a audience in the US, but the people of the Middle East will be listening and worrying more than ever.

If the perception is the US is going to sit on the sidelines, then hope will dwindle quickly and the MB along with Iran will go to work more than ever.

Above the Sergeant Majors Academy for the United States Army Gym is a sign that reads, “DEEDS BEFORE WORDS”.