EGYPT AND ISRAEL:

 BOTH HAVE HUGE PROBLEMS COMING UP.

Two articles that both talk to two very important issues.

The first one is very well written, but misses a key point / question I think needs to be asked.

It is not unusual a military that is the last agency standing after a complete collapse of government does a poor job of playing Legislative, Judicial leader?

Remember, the Egyptian Military is not known for being a compassionate organization, even before the revolution.

A military that is fatigued and lacking sound civilian leadership is not going to be in a position of serving the public in a positive way.

The guidance for day to day actions are probably less than detailed.

The realization that they are the last stand between an Egypt and total social disorder could account for the overreaction to even the most simplistic of events.

A nation of laws and civil order, as oppressive as they were, is a drastic change to where they stand today.

The social dreamers, who somehow thought they were going to tear down the government of Egypt and simply walk into a utopia of freedoms and tranquility, are getting a hard lesson in reality.

I have no doubt the author of this article is correct in the assumption many of those arrested are not guilty of anything other than being near a very paranoid military.

Right now in Egypt, if you look like a Duck and walk like a Duck and Sound like a Duck, the military is going to think you are a Duck!

Ok, enough of sticking up for the last truly functional structure of the Egyptian Government.

I do have one observation I think the author of this story has missed.

It seems the collection of ‘arrested / detained’ individuals is concentrated with left leaning non traditional Muslim groups.

Of all the people who have been reportedly rounded up in the past three months, I wonder how many are members of the Muslim Brotherhood?

In the minds of the military leadership, it could very well be they see the destruction of Egypt’s government based on a left leaning, academic movement.

Remember how many Times I have talked about the power of perception?

If the ‘perception’ of the Egyptian military is such, then it would make sense this is the category of people they would target.

Those they feel are responsible for the destruction, and destruction is what key military leaders believe has happened,  must not be allowed to make matters worse.

Does this answer the question as to why the MB on  is not being targeted?

Well, it could be they are not making  the ‘noise’ the young modern Egyptians are and as such, they are not on the ‘radar’.

It could also be  the MB influence inside the Egyptian Military has dramatically changed.

It is common knowledge the MB was a primary target of the military during the Mubarak years.

But, as  Egypt began to fall into the social abyss, desperate leaders may have joined forces to save Egypt from a fate riviling ‘ Mad Max’.

“ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”.

Sound far fetched, not count it out.

The one thing the old Egyptian Military and the MB have in common and always have had in common is being ruthless and being conservative.

 Egypt is in a terrible mess and the elections are not going to solve their problems.

They could make them worse.

The MB and the Military know it and they both may do whatever it takes to save what is left of Egypt.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/2011519172611166398.html

The second story gives us yet another hint at just how bad the relationship between the US and Israel has become.

Netanyahu knows Israel’s back is now against the wall perhaps like never before.

The wars in the past, had a common denominator, the backing of the US.

Most of us do not believe the US would stand by and watch the destruction of Israel, but the people of Israel may not feel the same way after this week.

Again, the issue of ‘perception’ comes into play.

What is even more important is how Iran perceived the President’s speech!

His comments about Iran did not go unnoticed, but the true discovery for Iran may be in the perception of a change in US support for Israel.

Iran will not believe the US has abandoned Israel, in fact, most official comments from Iran spoke to the issue of the President still playing to the goals of Israel.

Yet, one can not overlook the theory Iran may have a greater perception of the US simply standing on the sidelines as the Middle East unravels.

Comments that painted a picture of the US taking a ‘ it’s up to the people’ attitude, will be studied by Iran in great detail.

It is very clear to Iran, internally, the US is not going to intervene, at this time, with events in Syria.

Iran knows the talk of sanctions is as it always has been, a Paper Tiger.

For Iran to even contemplate the US will take a ‘ sideline’ stances in the Middle East, could prove to be disastrous.

Enter the question of Saudi.

Has the President’s policy shift lead to a potential confrontation between Iran and the GCC,  a Saudi run concept?

I stated two days ago,  Saudi and the GCC have something in common with Israel and they have seen it coming for several months now.

The US is perceived as pulling away from all of them!

True?

Who knows and who cares!!

Remember; “Perceptions”.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/20/us-obama-mideast-netanyahu-idUSTRE74I7L720110520

DID WE JUST PUSH SAUDI INTO CHINA'S ARMS?

So how did the President's speech go today?

For those who are his loyal followers, it was a brilliant speech.

For those that appose him, he abandoned Israel.

For the Arabs, it didn't go far enough.

For Israel, it was a betrayal.

So, did anything really change?

YES!

For the first time the US stated the policy of the US will be based on the 1967 borders concept!

For Israel, that is a monumental change that only adds to the mounting bad news of the past four months.

So, is this the story of the day?

NO!

The story of the day was the perception by Saudi and our other Gulf State allies the US is abandoning  them as well.

Many in the US will see the US taking  a ' case by case' attitude with the events in the Middle East.

That is not how our allies, both Arab and Israeli will see the 'new US policy'.

What Saudi and Israel both have in common is the perception they have been abandoned.

Again, as I have said for months now, perception is reality in the Middle East.

So, what does this mean to the US?

There can be a clear winner in this new policy shift.

The problem is, it is probably not the US or its Allies.

The winners could and probably will be China and Russia.

Yep!

Sound crazy?

It's not!

If Saudi feels abandon, they will do two things.

1. They will reach out for new strategic partners, and in fact they already have.

China.

2. They will begin to realize the US's new attitude of ' we should not lead the world' will mean one thing to them; "it's time to cowboy up"!

Saudi's defense appropriations' will go into overdrive.

Don't be shocked if Saudi gets into the Nuclear Weapons development business quick!

In their eyes, Ali knows ( Lord Knows) the US will not do anything to stop it.

So, was the President's speech a success or a failure?

Time will tell, but we live in very interesting times!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/05/18/obama.saudi.arabia/index.html





LEBANON’S PROBLEM WITH SYRIA:

It’s not hard to recognize the continued pressure the events in Syria are placing on Lebanon and the emotional comments in this article illustrates my point.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/18/gemayel-the-situation-in-syria-is-unacceptable/

I found Assad’s comment his forces had “made some mistakes in the past few weeks” pathetic given his tanks were firing on yet another border town today.

I’m sure the Sunni population of Lebanon found Assad’s comments hard to swallow.

So, what does the future hold for Lebanon as events in Syria continue to unfold?

Sectarian tension is simmering in both countries and Lebanon can only sit and wait for the next event to take place on it’s border.

The Lebanese Military is conflicted given the influence of the Hezbollah dominated government.

Sunni members of the military watching Sunni families running for their lives from Syrian Tanks can only add tension to Lebanon.

To put it simply, Lebanon could slide into conflict with little or no warning, thus making events in the Middle East even more complicated, if that’s possible!

The President’s Address on Thursday night will have a audience in the US, but the people of the Middle East will be listening and worrying more than ever.

If the perception is the US is going to sit on the sidelines, then hope will dwindle quickly and the MB along with Iran will go to work more than ever.

Above the Sergeant Majors Academy for the United States Army Gym is a sign that reads, “DEEDS BEFORE WORDS”.

REVOLUTION NOT EVOLUTION.

The attached article makes an absolute rock solid point; although it's a bit wordy!

It is simply ridicules for anyone to think Syria's current government is going to ether suddenly or slowly transform into anything close to a 'Democracy'.

The idea of Syria needing a 'Revolution' doesn't hold well for the near future of the Middle East.

I think I have stated several times in the past four months a regional war brought on by Iran is more than possible.

Yet, the future of Syria is not with Assad or any of this family associates.

Syria has become the key battleground for peace in the Middle East and Iran will do everything it can to keep from losing Syria.

The people of Syria know all too well the road to peace is going to be even more violent than it has been and the  loss of life will only get worse.

It is for this reason, many are still on the sidelines.

I cannot predict  the finding of 'mass graves' is going to push the fence sitters over the edge, but if children are photographed coming out of those graves, Assad could see Damascus in flames by the end of the week.

A Damascus in flames is a red line for Iran and what happens after that is nothing but terrible news!

Just when it looked as if the shooting involved with Israel was going to take center stage, something the Iranians planned for, it might just be the mass graves that pushes the Syrian people to 'Revolution'.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/10/why-syria-needs-a-revolution/





THE DAY AFTER THE NAKBA

 ISRAEL:

If it seemed like the funerals of those killed in the Nakba event went by with little fanfare, they did!

Iranian reactions were predictable, with the exception of Iran not really responding to Israel’s accusation of Iranian medaling.

The attached link gives an interesting twist to the Iranian / Hezbollah actions this weekend.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/15/palestinian-protests-arab-spring-or-foreign-manipulation 

 SYRIA:

Another interesting follow on topic today dealt with the Syrian military and the continuing rumors of tensions / desertions in the ranks.        

I am still convinced the movement of Tanks into the initial towns two weeks ago was more of a reaction to reported disserting units.

Knowing well armed troops, RPGs as an example, are dug in amongst the buildings would explain the Tank fire assaults.

If these rumors have truth, and I still believe they do, then the danger of a Secterian Civil War is well founded.

           

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/16/syrian-army-splitting-along-sectarian-lines-report

IRAN:

Iran’s power struggle seems to be getting worse with each passing day.

Ahmadinejad designating himself the interim Oil Minister is an interesting twist, especially with the pending OPEC meeting.

Having key senior leaders accuse him of being “Bewitched” is a bazaar event to say the least.

My guess is further tensions are going to take place this week.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/16/ayatollah-iran%e2%80%99s-president-%e2%80%98bewitched%e2%80%99-by-senior-aide

Well; the simple fact of the matter is, if you leave your TV off for more than eight hours right now, you are going to miss something happening in the Middle East.

The heat of Summer is on the way and that is going to only add to the tensions.





A POTENTIAL BENCHMARK EVENT IN THE ‘TUNISIAN VIRUS / ARAB SPRING’.

                                                                                                                   

Predicting several issues about the events of May 15^th was not terribly hard to do, so watching so many key leaders and nations act  surprised by the this day is somewhat puzzling.

The fact the evening news of CBS and ABC didn’t have today’s events even in the first fifteen minutes only add to the mysterious response.

I did see a lead story on Fox News, but I must admit the comparson of today’s actions with the 1973 War is a little over the top!

I can understand the philosophy of not wanting to overplay the violence, but Arab news media will and has made today’s events center stage.

I will admit the coverage of the violence by Al Jazeera seemed somewhat subdued given their coverage of the past four months.

Again, the issue of not wishing to inflame future actions by over coverage is understandable.

My prediction is as the funerals start at sunrise on Monday, the coverage, at least by Al Jazeera and other Arabic news media networks, will increase drastically.

As for how Israel has responded to the events of May 15^th,  I would speculate the IDF  has made fast adjustments in monitoring future hotspots.

The concept they were not prepared for the Syrian fence crossing is open for debate.

Knowing the protestors crossed a known minefield without killing a single member is interesting to say the least.

It would make one believe they had ‘help’ knowing the routes through the fields.

Israel was quick, as they should have been, to accuse Syria and Iran of having their fingers the violence in an attempt to distract the public from Syrian uprisings.

The media may be slow to cover today’s actions, but the Syrian and Iranian Governments and their state controlled networks surly will not be.

So what happens next?

Funerals for the dead will be heavily attended to include Syrian and Iranian media.

Follow on protest will be based upon the emotions of the protestors.

Remember, it’s not easy getting to the areas they made contact in today.

For those that used Gaza as a protest site, they will have to contend with Hamas security forces.

I am still convinced the concept of violence in Gaza and in Israel is not what Hamas, Fatah or the MB wants, not just yet.

The PA statehood issue is the goal and risking open confrontation with Israel in May is probably not the plan.

September’s attempted vote by the UN is a key issue from the viewpoint of the PA.

The MB is concentrating on elections in Egypt and taking on a potential conflict over the PA is not on their radar; again, not just yet.

The problem with this theory is Iran.

Iran may want to continue the violence from the standpoint of distraction.

Syria is in a critical phase of their revolt.

Ether more key groups such as the Kurds totally join the movement soon, or the movement risk loosing momentum.

My prediction is Iran will use these protest like a throttle if they can.

Here is the problem for Iran.

They are trying to ‘own’ this movement, but the Palestinian Youth Movement gets a vote.

Hamas and Fatah are not the only ones worried about these ‘free radicals’.

Iran may be able to influence their response by making sure some of them are killed at key moments in time, but they simply can not pick up the phone and tell them what to do.

As a matter of fact; Iran is on the Youth Movement’s Target List and Iran knows it.

Iran is playing with fire and they know it, but they don’t have a lot of choices right now.

Israel knows they are in a very difficult phase of the ‘Tunisian Virus’ but they have been planning for several months and counter moves can be expected soon.

Hint; Lebanon is about to come into even greater play!

It’s going to be an interesting week.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS COMING WEEK.

  IRAN:

The  rift between Khamenei  and Ahmadinejad seems to be taking a new twist according to this article. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201151410558329641.html 

Several different theories as to why he would take these actions, but the most simplistic version is, “I’m not going to back up”.     

As simplistic as this may sound, if Khamenei perceives this  to be true, then things could get much worse quickly.

Remember, perception in the Middle East is more important than reality and ‘Truth’ comes in a dead last.         

Internal power struggles in Iran as it tries to deal with Syria will only cloud the thoughts of both leaders and desperation may become the common theme.

SYRIA:

The fist thing to say about Syria is Lebanon!!!

The killings of Syrian civilians as they try to escape into Lebanon and a refugee issue staked on top, will lead to Lebanon’s turmoil increasing.

The Anti / Pro Syrian factions in Lebanon are nearly at each other’s throats already day to day.

A true exodus event from Syria into Lebanon, with wounded requiring medical attention, will add fuel to the fire.

Hezbollah grows more and more concerned about their relationship with Syria.

The more they are forced to worry about violence in Lebanon, the more prone they are to making real mistakes and Lebanon can not afford any mistakes right now.

Assad has dug himself a whole he can no longer escape from.

It appears the Kurds are becoming more and more involved now and that is a key indicator that things are going to get worse in Syria.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514111351532345.html       

ISRAEL  AND THE PA:

Three important links here to give a perspective of where things might be heading.

For months now, I have said the ‘Tunisian Virus’ ultimate roadway leads to Israel.

With each passing day, Israel believes this more and more.

I stated two nights ago it doesn’t matter who fires the shot that kills a young protester.

The young man killed in the past 24 hrs is now first Official Martyr of the so called ‘third Intifada’.

I’m not sold the plan of launching an official Intifada can be achieved by just the youth movement.

The PA / Hamas and Fatah will have to back this before it can gain any traction.

But, remember my theory of both Hamas and Fatah being afraid of this new and, to them, dangerous Palestinian Youth Movement.

One death may not spark an Intifada fire, but it could!

One thing is for sure; if more people are killed on the 15^th, the ‘Third Intifada” wrapped in the “Tunsian Virus Movement” could morph into something none of them are ready to deal with.

Now, remember Iran needs something to happen and they need it soon.

Who shoots at who on the 15^th may not matter.

The attached DEBKA story points to this concern.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=220514                          

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514142534749136.html         

http://www.debka.com/article/20932/                          

BAHRAIN:

It’s worth noting Bahrain is beginning to boil back to the surface.

The Shi supported by Iran, according to the GCC, in Bahrain have done a great job depicting the double standard that seems to be taking place with the West.

For all the talk this week about Assad and his actions, the West has said little to nothing about Bahrain.

This may go unnoticed in the US, but it plays HUGE in the Middle East. 

Two months ago I talked about the West getting a better storyline ready for the ‘double standard’          accusation.

I’m not sure this is happening.

It better start quick!

PAKISTAN:

I commented the day UBL died, what a great day that was by the way, that Pakistan was in real trouble.

They were not on firm ground before this event and that ground is even less stable today.

Playing to the Chinese may make Pakistan feel good when it comes to being mad at the US, but it will not keep the Fundamentalist from attempting to topple the government.

Pakistan is in real trouble and they to may be soon be looking for a ‘distraction’ / external threat.

To put it simply, Pakistan is in real trouble.

Probably not along the lines of Syria or Iran, but given they are a nuclear power, any real trouble there can not be underestimated.

BOTTOM LINE:

May 15^th 20011 may not be the breakout day the Arabs are talking of, but it is easily the beginning of the ‘end game’ of the whole journey.