THE PALESTINIAN YOUTH MOVEMENT

Most speculate this movement is the real driving force behind Hamas and 

Fatah announcing they are ' one team' now! 

Ironic given Hamas beat these kids senseless in Gaza back in March.

To think that both Hamas and Fatah are now so worried about losing control of the PA cause that they would hold hands is an indication of just how powerful this movement can become.

The idea that Hamas didn't get guidance from Iran, Syria and Assad are a little 

preoccupied right now, would be a huge mistake. 

From Iran's viewpoint the ability to deflect the 'virus' as it consumes 

Syria and starts to lurk around the edges of Iran is an alluring idea. 

The concept of the Israeli / PA issue becoming the focal point of the public 

consciousness in the Middle East again is exactly what Iran / Syria needs right 

now. 

Iran and Syria have been safely existing for years by simply keeping the 

entire region focused on the PA statehood  issue. 

The classical ‘create an external threat and keep the population focused on it”. 

The 'Tunisian Virus' has stripped Iran and Syria of that protective shield. 

Iran will do anything to redirect the attention of the Muslim youth. 

Thus; supporting, indirectly, the unification process is absolutely 

Necessary and if the Palestinian Youth Movement makes a move on Hamas and Fatah, then Iran will back the winner!

The problem is this movement, attached article, is not concerned with what 

is good for Iran or Syria. 

It clearly doesn't even care about the opinions of Hamas and Fatah. 

They have fashioned themselves after the events in Tunisia and Egypt for a 

reason. 

They are the same group of people; Young, educated and hungry for a better world. 

 SIDE NOTE:

An interesting theory is taking shape over this whole topic of the future of the PA.

Rumor has it that Hamas reached out to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood knowing that Assad was possibly going to fall.

Yep, the classic doubles cross.

Ya gotta love international politics!

There is no way this has taken place without Hezbollah catching wind of it.

Hezbollah may have to do the same thing if they wish to hold on to Lebanon; and I don’t think they are going to be able to do that! 

So, back to what Hamas may have pulled off.

Rumor has it Hamas was told by the SMB ( Syrian Muslim Brotherhood) they needed to work their issues with Egypt.

Egypt laid down the edict they wanted to see a unification process between Hamas and Fatah and they would be willing to open up the checkpoints into Gaza if Hamas would reach out to Fatah.

Deal Done!!

 I’ve said this time and time again.

Every day I grow more and more convinced the end state of this 'Tunisian 

Virus' is a Cairo 'event' in Israel. 

It comes at the hands of the new Palistinian Youth Movement, supported by Iran, covertly, or it comes at the hands of the new unified PA government.

To Israel it doesn’t really matter; “ pick your poison”. 

How does Israel head that off? 

How does Iran shape this event to execute just the way they want it? 

UBL may be dead, but the Middle East is on Fire!!! 

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/201153101231834961.htm 

WHO TAKES THE LEAD?

Trick question!

Who is going to take the place / take over for UBL?

If you guessed the Muslim Brotherhood, you are correct!

If you didn't guess the MB, then back to class for you!

Let's put this in perspective.

Long before UBL was even a glimmer in his Dad's eye, the MB was attempting to change the course of history for all Muslims in the world.

The MB will rewrite what UBL stood for and why he did what he did to fit their future needs.

Their vision of the future is the only one that counts to them and UBL was nothing more than a good soldier in their movement with a tendency to go rouge.

He set the modern-day 'revolution' in motion and the MB will insure his actions were not in vain.

But, make no mistake the MB

will insure the history books show UBL died a Martyr in their cause.

To put it simply, the MB will assimilate UBL and his actions.

Those splinter organizations that formed after UBL's foundation will ether rebel and create inner conflicts in places like Pakistan or they too will fold into the greater movement of the MB.

This will not be that hard to do given most of them are Sunni at their foundation.

So why is this so important at this moment in history?

Take  a real good look at what is going on with the 'Tunisian Virus'.

Who stands to take power in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia ect.. ect..???

Yep.. the MB!!!

the stuggle between the Sunni and the Shi is simply a matter of superior numbers.

With a four to one advantage in total numbers, a sectarian struggle between the Sunni and the Shi has only one conclusion and the MB could easily become the 21st century face of the Sunni faith.  

So; when you hear people sitting around worrying about who will be the next UBL, look at them and say, "you don't understand what you are up against"!





NOW WHAT?

All day long the media has covered the death of UBL  and has done a good job of posing the real question, “what does it mean”?

Answers have ranged from his movement has been dealt a possible mortal blow to nothing will really change.

The old cliché of “only time will tell” is probably as good an answer as any.

What I’ve not heard a great deal of detail on is how  his death has tactically impacted his movement.

Lets look at a few facts about disruption operations and the second order effects they usually have.

1. Lets assume, and the press has even talked about this today, the Team that carried out the mission was able to recover valuable information from the compound.

It’s is very common for the followers or partners of a criminal movement to be  rendered ineffective for a period of time after a successful operation on one of it’s members or especially it’s leadership.

Why is this?

Simple; the other members don’t know what information was obtained and they always assume the worst!

What information did UBL have with him and do his followers know what that information was?

Criminals run paranoid and his followers are paranoid beyond belief right now.

“ I’m next”, becomes the overriding concern for all of those that were in contact with him.

Place that paranoia on top of news reports saying “actionable information was obtained from the compound” and I would bet you there is full fledge panic in many parts of the network.

This will not last forever, but it will last long enough for the agencies searching for his followers to take additional actions if at all possible.

In other words, the operation creates a limited window of additional opportunities.

That is where we stand as of today.

What follow on events or intelligence can be developed and how fast can it be analyzed?  

All of this keeps UBL’s followers off balance and on the Defense, we hope!!

After this period is over, the real issues becomes, did his network have “mission ready” operations that can be executed quickly?

It’s a question that must be part of the overall process being conducted right now.

So, did UBL have missions ready to execute and did his follower have contingency plans for his capture or death?

Again, there seem to be several theories on these two questions and opinions are all over the map.

What needs to happen is what I speculate is just what is happening right now.

We must anticipate he did have missions ready to execute or at least close enough to execution that they can be put into motion.

We must assume that some of  his network  had planned for the event of something happening  to him.

The theory of “plan for the worst and hope for the best” applies here.

This is where the paranoia factor of his followers not knowing what information was obtained from his compound comes into play.

Very well disciplined units might be able to fight off the paranoia and push to execute an attack.

That explains why the US government didn’t wait to warn everyone to be careful starting as soon as the announcement came out.

The other thing that should be considered is the traditional ‘mourning period’ for his followers.

If many of the devout believers are true to their faith, they will mourn him for several days and then set out to avenge him.

Last but surly not least, we need to think about what we commonly call the ‘ low hanging fruit’ members, or what I like to call the “ Wanna Be” groups.

Finding actionable information on a ‘lone wolf’ mental patient who is so upset over UBLs death that he or she just starts killing anyway they can is nearly impossible to do!

In reality, for the foreseeable future these are the ones to be truly worried about.

One thing is for sure; the chapter of UBL as an individual is over.

The chapter of UBL the Martyr has just started.



THE WEEK AHEAD

ISRAEL:

Last week was not good news for Israel and the repercussions will reflect on all of us who look at the Middle East for Oil.

Egypt announcement the checkpoints to Gaza will be opened did not sit well with Israel and this week will give us an indication of how they plan to respond to this announcement.

Most of us realize that talk is often cheap in the Middle East and the talk of Egypt opening these checkpoints and sending ‘security teams’ into Gaza  could be just an extension of this opinion.

Israel still maintains a ‘working’ relationship with the Egyptian Military and until the MB forces the Egyptian Military to change, this relationship will help head off potential flare ups.

SYRIA:

Assad made every bad possible decision he could possibly make last week shy of using his air force to bomb his own cities!

More and more rumors of Iranian intervention are showing up in the open press and blogs.

As I have stated for weeks now, Iran can not afford to have Assad and Syria fall to the MB or any other Sunni movement.

The worse things get in Syria, the more Iran may choose truly desperate options to counter the event.

Look for Syria to continue blaming the March 14^th movement in Lebanon for problems in Syria.

Look for the Sunni of Lebanon to call for Assad to stop pointing his finger at Lebanon and look for them to bring more media attention to the violence in Syria.

Look for the MB to position themselves as the potential leaders of resistance in Syria; an issue that will infuriate the Iranians and Assad.

Egypt:

Egypt pops back on my radar  this week.

The MB is about to decide to shoot for a larger slice of the pie in the next election.

There will be no more talk of ’30 percent’.

The new target will be 50 percent.

That may very well be overlooked by most of the Western world, but it should not be.

50 percent can easily become over 50 percent and over 50 percent is a ‘majority’ elected in an ‘Democratic’ election.

Do you remember the 2006 Hamas election results?

Bad news  for the West and Israel.

It’s May and the temperatures are going to go way up in the Middle East.

Hot days turn into violent nights!

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FROM THIS PAST WEEK

The articles listed below cover two major topics that pose a significant challenge for all of those interested in the Middle East.

1.  The so called reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and what it means to the rest of the world / Israel.

2. Syria and the real possibility of a civil war.

As you read the first two articles, pay close attention to the issue of Egypt's involvement in the Hamas / Fatah issue.

I have no doubt the potential new leaders in Egypt are going to change the relationship with Israel and their interaction in the PA issue, so soon after their own period of upheaval, is puzzling to many.

 As I continued to read, I found two topics very disturbing.

A. Egypt announcing it will send a 'Peacekeeping Team' to Gaza!

B. Egypt is going to open the checkpoints into Gaza!  

Two very bold and emotional moves that I seriously doubt Israel was consulted on.

How Israel will react to all three of these events this  week, the two above and the agreement between Hamas and Fatah, will be very important to the near future of the region.

On Positive note; I don't believe for a moment Hamas and Fatah / PA / are going to hold hands and dance in the rain.

The problem will be the amount of damage they can do in a short period of time.

If you read the third article attached, you will begin to realize the Israelis are

preparing for the arrival of the ' Tunisian Virus'.

The PA youth has been demanding a unification of Hamas and Fatah for several months for the simple purpose of collectively marching on Israel!

As I said before, Iran would support this process for the simple reason it applies pressure on a region of the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Egypt's part in making this happen is nothing more than the MB showing they are going to shape the future of Egypt.

It all spells very bad news for the rest of the world and the price of oil in the near future.

You let the speculators think Cairo scale events may be about to take place in the West Bank and Gaza and the price of Oil will soar.

2. SYRIA:

The last story I have attached to this post talks to an dangerous sign inside of Syria.

For several days now I have been watching the story of large numbers of Syrian military defections and the insuring gun battle shortly there after.

I have no doubt the additional tanks that were dispatched to Deraa were a direct result of unit level defections.  

When Military organizations begin to fire on themselves, Civil War is close at hand.

We in the US know this, but more importantly Iran knows this!

So, the drag race is on..

Can Iran get the PA issue into the streets of Israel before Syria breaks down into a Civil War?

Let's see that this week will bring!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/palestinian-prime-minister-hamas-fatah

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/egypt-revolution-players-palestinian-pieces

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=218274

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-if-the-rumours-and-conspiracies-are-true-then-president-assads-regime-is-on-the-road-to-civil-war-2275155.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011429155947718117.html



WILL  AHMADINEJAD  JUMP  TO  THE  "RESISTANCE "

I posted this about two weeks ago when I saw an article about tensions
between the two leaders in Iran.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/04/iranian-squabble-in-past-i-have.html

 As you read the story from this morning, start to wrap your mind around the
concept that Iran is growing more and more worried about the 'Tunisian
Virus' coming to Iran.

 Ahmadinejad  may be the 'setup guy' for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei if  Khamenei
decides Iran needs someone to blame  for possible unrest.

 To put it simply, Ahmadinejad maybe  tossed under the bus if things turn bad
in Iran.

 There has never been a great relationship between the two.

 You may not see Khamenei talking bad about Ahmadinejad  in the Iranian
press, not just yet, but the Supreme Council could start to hack away at
him.

 Look at the comments in this story about Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff!

 Ahmadinejad could be taking the blame for  Syria ineffectively dealing with
its issues.

 Yesterday I speculated Iran was behind the sudden signing between Hamas and
Fatah.

 I based that on my theory Iran is looking for a 'distraction' in the Middle
East to take the pressure off of events in Syria.

 The Hamas / Fatah announcement, especially being held in Cairo, is a
scalable  event that allows Iran to determine the amount of anxiety it
creates in the Middle East and the West.

 Put yesterday's announcement together with today's story and you potentially
have a real storm in the making.

Why would Ahmadinejad make the jump?

Two of the attached articles do a great job at depicting Ahmadinejad and his Chief of Staff as Persian Iranians, not just Muslims.

Ahmadinejad is no fool, he knows he is being set up to be a fall guy and the future of Iran / Persian Empire / not the Muslim / Shi  movement is his top concern.

He is fist and foremost a Nationalist and Khamenei knows it!

Both of them are trying to figure out how to survive what they both know is coming!

The 'Tunsian Virus'.

The Virus may provide them the opportunity to do each other in.

Both may no longer be trying to prevent the Virus from spreading to Iran.

They are both trying to 'weaponize' it to their advantage.

This all goes back to my most fundamental fear of events in the Middle East;
the fear Iran is growing more desperate by the day.

 Internal fighting between two key members of Iranian government is a real
indicator just how bad things are getting.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/27/ahmadinejad-absence-fuels-talks-of-iran-political-crisis/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/iran-president-supreme-leader-rift

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/21/ahmadinejad-iran-successor-wikileaks



SCALABLE  'DISTRACTION'?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011427152119845721.html

Was the sudden agreement between Fatah and Hamas the distraction Iran was looking to create?

Could it be Iran intended for the distraction event to be a scalable process there by giving them the option of turning off the distraction if it got out of hand or if it no longer became necessary?

Why do I consider this "Historic Agreement" to be a scalable event?

Hamas and Fatah coming to an agreement and doing so in Cairo would and did anger the Israeli government, yet most of the world realizes these are just words and the Arabs have had hundreds of 'agreements' on thousands of issues.

Short version; anouncing an agreement is a far cry from actually forming a 'joint government'.

Words are cheap especially in the Middle East.

Double cross is a common middle sir name there.

Yet, Iran knows simply having Hamas and Fatah announce such an event will draw  attention to the Israeli reaction.

The harder the Israeli government reacts, the more  attention it will get from the Arab world.

Thus; did Iran execute their desired 'distraction' without risking violent reaction?

My bet is this could be the case.

Could Iran initiate such a plan?

You bet!

The phone call may have gone something like this;  Abd al-Aziz Rantis gets a phone call and

in that phone call he is told by Iran  to make a temporary peace with Fatah and then make a big deal of the announcement and to do so in Cairo.

Sound far fetched?

Don't think it could not happen.

Ok; So why does this agreement worry Israel and as such get them to react creating a distraction?

Simple; Israel and those who really follow the Middle East, understand that a unified PA is the preliminary step needed to create the march on Israel for PA independence.

Abbas has known for months the youth of the PA wants the split to end in order to create a unified front for forcing Israel into a corner.

The loss of his protector Mubarak all but sealed Abbas' fate on resisting Hamas.

What changed was Hamas thinking they needed to meet Abbas halfway.

Iran changed that for them!

What does it all mean?

It means we are now closer than we have been to seeing, eventually, a Cairo type protest movement in the West Bank and Gaza.

Keeping that movement out of the streets of Israel will be difficult.

If you don't believe me, look at how quickly Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the announcement today.