SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? By the Clash.

This is a song Ahmadinejad may have to sing by the time Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gets done with him.

Two days ago I said everyone needed to pay attention when Ahmadinejad
'adjustments to the public  subsidies really becomes apparent to the Iranian public.

His timing is unbelievably  bad!!!

 He knows  Syria is the Canary  in the cage for what might
be coming to Iran, yet he pulls the trigger on upping the price of natural
gas 10 fold!!!!

 With the issue of subsidies being the spark, he may have just ignited the
flames of revolt in Iran.

 Assad has to be looking at Ahmadinejad and thinking, " what are you doing"?

 If the 'Tunisian Virus' truly spreads to Iran and I think it will now, then
Assad knows all too well  he is on his own.

 He may be willing to strike deals with 'others' to save his skin and he also knows Iran will find out if he is out trying to make new friends!

So, where was he today?

  Yep, He was  in Saudi!

Now just think how that went over in Iran?

I have talked about the danger of Ahmadinejad looking for a diversion to
take the world's eye off of Syria and how that could lead to Hamas,
Hezbollah actions on Israel or Bahrain.

 Now that Iran has  given its public  an issue they can all rally around, it
will be interesting to see if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sticks with
Ahmadinejad.

                  No real love there; just  two Alpha Males that, for now, get along.

Ahmadinejad's option  to save his rule may be based on creating a
distraction in the Middle East, but Khamenei's version of a distraction may
be based on tossing out Ahmadinejad.  

The 'movement' is far more important to Khamenei than Ahmadinejad was or will ever be!

 The bottom line is simply this.

 Iran just made a catastrophic error  with the subsidies issue.

The question becomes, what do they do about it and more importantly,  how do we capitalize on it?

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/13/anger-in-iran-as-natural-gas-prices-incre
ase-10-fold/





TWO EVENTS WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Lets start by talking about the rumors of Syrian military leaders ordering their own members fired upon for not shooting at the public.

This is an event that if true, and I believe it is, it will prove to be more ominous for Assad than most of us realize.

A whole series of things have to happen for a dramatic escalation such as this to take place.

            Assad had to have give 'Rules of Engagement" to his own military leaders that he would not          tolerate disloyalty and perhaps even order anyone disobeying  to be shot.

            A huge pressure point between he and his Commanders that will have its toll even if the    Commanders don't have to carry it out.

            Military Command and Civilian leadership's 'Trust' is the key to any nation's survival.

            Once this bond is strained or broken, a critical step has been taken to loss of continuity of government.

            The strain these 'Rules of Engagement' place on the sub unit commanders and their superiors is     magnified again and again.

            In the history of professional militaries actions such as these or even  rumors on Commanders       firing on  their own troops is catastrophe few militaries have survived.

            The public, as witnessed in the attached linked article, spreads the word of these horrific event        faster than the government can get out in front of the story.

            The public understands what a monumental step this is and the gravity of just how much trouble    their nation may be in begins to set in.

So, if this has happened and again, I believe it has, then Syria and specifically Assad, who is NOT his Father, could be in far worse trouble than many realize.

You can bet Iran knows if this has taken place or not and the midnight oil is burning in the Iranian War Room!

 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/12/syrian-soldiers-shot-protest

The second issue is just as worrisome, if not more so, than the Syrian event.

Hamas  and others working with Hamas may have very well chosen a laser guided weapon against a bus to prove a point about the 'Iron Dome'.

The timing fits the concept.

I wrote about Israel not 'taking the bait' from Iran with the hostilities of the past two weeks, but the author of the attached article is absolutely correct with his last comment.

If that bus would have been full of Children, Israel would be at War right now.

The question becomes did Hamas have good enough intelligence to know who was on the bus?

From Israel's viewpoint, they now must dedicate the manpower to scan the border with Gaza for laser target identifiers.

I'm not sure if Israel can afford to not take the bait much longer.  

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/04/12/iron-dome-weaponry-alters-strategic-balance-gaza-strip/



CHAMOUN  CALLS  IT  LIKE  HE  SEES  IT!!!

Wow; what a gutsy not to mention strategic move by Chamoun!

 I've been saying for a long time if we ever want to keep the entire
Middle East from falling into the hands of a radical Persian Empire, we had to insure
the Arabs understood the true threat of Persian's wanting to rule  the
Arabs again.

 Many Arabs have believed in the Persian threat for years, but events had not
risen to the level of needing to draw the dividing line not to mention the  the PA/ Israeli conflict took center stage.

 Iran's nuclear weapons program was the beginning for several key Arab
countries to realize the time may be coming to play the "Persian Card".

 Saudi has been quietly working this philosophy for years along with Jordan
and a few of the Gulf Nations.

 For Chamoun to feel  now is the time, with all that is going on in the
Middle East, to play the "Persian Card" in Lebanon is fascinating.

 Perhaps he sees  the events in Syria and the possibility of them spreading to Iran as an oprotunity to counter Iranian inflenece in Lebanon.

His movement knows  Jordan and Saudi  will support  everything they  can conjure up to keep Iran off balance.

One thing is for sure, Lebanon is not going the way Iran and Hezbollah want
it to.

 The question now becomes, what does Iran do about it?

 Between stirring the pot with Israel over the past week by giving Hamas on
other's their marching orders for limited attacks on Israel  and Israel not
overreacting, as Iran hopped it would, and now Assad killing more people in
peaceful protest, Iran is growing more desperate by the day.




http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/11/chamoun-hezbollah-is-a-persian-party/#



Oh ya. Watch what happens in Iran when they devalue their currency again.



ISRAEL DOESN'T TAKE THE BAIT!

Lots of rumbling today about Israel giving in to the ceasefire proposal with the PA.

I'm not sold on Israel giving in on anything.

I think what they have done is figured out the Iranian 'game plan' for distracting events from Syria.

In my opinion, Israel has not taken the bait!

Now; that poses an interesting problem for Iran.

What to do when the other side won't fight back?

Don't forget the PA understands just like Hezbollah does, they are pawns in Iran's game of statesmanship.

Shi and Sunni get along until it's time to betray each other or find a new convenient ally.

So, what does Iran do if Israel doesn't take the media's eye off of Syria?

Good question!!

Lets watch over the next few days and see what happens!   



http://www.debka.com/article/20831/

IS IRAN TAKING THE NEXT STEP?

Well, things continue to get more and more desperate for Syria and over the past 24 hrs they have taken even a more dramatic change for the worse.

Rumor has it the number killed in the past 24 hrs is much higher than it has been for two weeks.

A sure sign Assad is losing his battle to keep the lid on Syria.

What makes matters worse for him, is Iran breathing down his neck on what he should and shouldn't be doing.

So, it is obvious Iran has ordered what I have been predicting for several weeks now.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been given instructions to turn up the heat with Israel and the past 48hrs shows just how dramatic that has happened.   

Remember, the only ace in the hole Iran has for problems in Syria, and eventually  Iran, is a major distraction.

Hamas and to some degree Hezbollah have begun a campaign that could easily lead to Israel striking harder than they have since the 2008 conflict. In my opinion, the actions taken by Israel today are the most saver in three years and they are more than likely going to increase their operations.

Is this the beginning of Iran starting a conflict to attempt to save Syria from open revolution?

It is very possible!

A million people taking the bomb shelters in Israel is not a typical Saturday afternoon event.

Two things will need to happen to see this operation really intensify.

1. Iran must believe that Assad is about to lose control of Syria.

2. Israel must decide the time has come to remove the threat of Hamas from Gaza.

I find it hard to believe Israel will move to neutralize Hamas without taking action against Hezbollah in Lebanon as well.

To do this, they will have to mobilize a significant portion of their military.

That is the thing  to watch for.

If you hear news articles, on BBC or Al Jazzera, CNN and FOX are drunk on the budget right now, then really bad times may be near at hand for the Middle East.

Something else to watch; the price of a barrel of oil in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

That's a real clue.

Oil Speculators do not live in a vacuum.

They know as many people as the CIA/ or the Department of State.



ASSAD  FOLLOWs  THE  'VIRUS'  PATH!

Remember a few weeks ago when I talked about the four phases of the 'Tunisian Virus'?

Well, Assad is still trying to expand on the ' concessions' phase.

As Assad gives ground again, he continues to realize how much trouble his
government could really be in.

 Like Libya, only the core of his military is loyal to him.

  The rest being Sunni are questionable at best.

 Making concessions and taking actions that gives the appearance  as if Syria is moving away from being a secular state is not the goal of the Sunni / MB. 

It will not solve his problems.

 He knows this, and he knows where all this is leading Syria.

 He also understands his actions must  be blessed off on by Iran.

 If not, then he is striking out on his own and
Iran will become even more upset with events in Syria.

Assad options are few are far between and he knows it.

Better yet, Iran knows it.

The Sunni 'Wave' is growing larger and Iran's Shi know it!

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/06/syria-reverses-ban-on-islamic-veil-closes
-its-only-casino/#