ISRAEL ON THE EDGE.

Lots of things to be worried about in the Middle Eastern Region, but one flash point needs to be addressed.

Israel and Hamas are closer now to open conflict then they have been in several years.

I'm not sure I agree with the argument Hamas is looking to distract the dissatisfaction of the people of Gaza with Hamas.

For Hamas to actually take the critical step of forcing open hostilities with Israel, they would have to have the backing of Iran.

I don't accept the concept Egypt is already playing a factor in supporting Hamas's actions.

Egypt is too busy trying to hold itself together and that is another serious issue in itself.

I am going to stick to my theory that Iran is looking for a redirection of the world media away from the ever increasing violence in Syria.

Assad ineptness combined with his arrogance has Syria falling into an ever deepening crisis.

The fact the Kurds are now joining the 'protesters' is a near panic level event for Assad.

His actions are monitored by Iran 24/7/ 365; you see, Iran really doesn't trust Assad!

Anyway, the Iranian option of forcing  events in Bahrain or Gaza is becoming more and more likely to happen.

The question becomes not if, buy when and what option do they take?

Israel understands this and the actions the media is picking up on in the past few days reflects their movement towards dangerous times.

Hamas can see the preparation as well and has two choices .

                1. Begin to prepare themselves for hostile actions on a large scale.

                2.  Decide not to take orders from Iran and waste everything they have gained in the past three              years.

Don't fool yourself.... Hamas will not walk into the jaws of the Israeli War Machine just because Iran tells it to.

The danger is Iran thinks they will or is scared they won't.

loyalty is a much different relationship than convenience.

What relationship the two have at this moment is very suspect.

http://www.debka.com/article/20813/



KUWAIT  MAKES  IT'S  MOVE!

Kuwait has taken some  interesting steps here.

 A two part move:

1.   punish the 'moderates' who convinced Kuwait's leadership not to take part in Peninsula Shield.

 A dramatic step given the plan was mostly designed to support Kuwait  years ago.

I remember this plan well.

 They have been embarrassed by deciding to not  be a larger  part of the
reaction to Bahrain.

It may make them believe their allies might hesitate to come to their  aid
and thus allow Iran to target them more aggressively. 

That would explain The second part of the Kuwaiti steps taken

2.  Rounding up Iranian agents, or alleged agents; my bet is Kuwait has the right bunch, at least part of them.

Trials can happen  quickly in Kuwait  when needed, even when the Kuwaitis
tell you they have been working something for months, so don't panic these two got the death penalty so fast.

Sectarian violence?

Last week I said I believed I knew where all of this was heading, but I never got around to talking about it.

I will this weekend, but in a nutshell the question above is the issue.

As this  'Tunisian Virus' event continues, a very  dangerous variant could
come to the forefront .

 Watch for the Gulf States, desperate Monarchies, to begin to shape this as a
" Sunni Vs Shi" event. 

 This article hints to that concept taking shape.


http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/01/kuwait-trial-reveals-irans-hidden-hand/#


TUNISIA TRIES TO JUMP THE 'POND'

Remember what I  said back when Egypt was starting to have problems?

 The ability of the 'Tunisian Virus'  to get to the states is going to happen at some
point in time.

When you read this article, you can see what Al Jazerra is trying to imply.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/03/2011328111314767851.ht

The common thread, or at least the one our enemies will try and weave, will be based on some fashion of 'injustice'.  

Now I know New York is known for protest and getting 5k people into the
streets of New York is as easy as announcing free tickets to a Yankees / Red
Sox's game, but again,  notice how Al Jazerra  shaped this event!

If you look at the 'Tunisian Virus' most if not all of the revolts / protest
/ have started with 'failed' rallies that get people to meet each other,
exchange Twitter accounts, FB accounts  and basically  lay the groundwork
for the next demonstration.

Professional organizers are going to get involved in this movement and I  would bet
they already have.

It is not too difficult to imagine that  Iran or others, UBL, would be more than ecstatic  to see some version of social discord in the US and the sooner the better.

The event in Wisconsin a few weeks ago was the target of foreign media information operations, I.O.

The problem was, the issue was not broad based at the beginning and by the time it became a 'Union Busting' shaped discussion, supported by some of or own, Western / Left leaning media, events in Libya had overtaken the American public; that and the tragedy of Japan.

Wisconsin and New York may very well be ' miss fires' but it has given our enemies a grand opportunity to focus on once again 'weaponizing' the 'Tunisian Virus'.


THE DANGER OF HEROES

It appears Kadafi's forces have temporarily adapted to the Air Cover.



Small teams that move out looking like the rebel forces.



The teams converge on a point do a quick salvo fire of mortars and then move
out again.



It  sound as if they are spreading out along the sides of the highways to
keep any aircraft from being able to take out more than one or two vehicles at a time.

Untrained Rebels don't know the difference between mortar fire and tank /
artillery fire.. hence panic sets in and they give up ground.



The NATO forces have a great deal of Desert to cover with a limited number of aircraft.

That makes it very difficult to spot, properly identify and engage known targets.


 What the Mad Dog is doing is creating a Rebel Stampede!!!

Kadafi's forces are making a lot of noise and the Rebels panic!


The Rebels are going to need someone or some group, WARNING!!!, to help them understand what is happening  to them.

As long as they believe columns of tanks are coming at them, they will
continue to run.

 This tactic will become ineffective if the Rebels take a defensive line and
wait till they actually  can see what the enemy is doing.

 Here is the problem.

 
Who are the 'Tactical Advisors' for the Rebels right now????



If not our troops, then you can bet the 'Radicals' will fill this void. 

 That will make them 'heroes' in the eyes of the young Rebels.

Heroes are followed when the fighting is done.

Six months from now the conversation can go something like this. (Radical / Hero) " I would like you to meet a friend of mine who can help you with all these issues of rebuilding Libya's Government. He is a good man and I think  he can help you".

When someone questions why the young Rebels are listening to this new person, the answer will be,

" I owe him my life".



SYRIA FOLLOWS THE FOOTSTEPS STEP BY STEP!

It appears not only does the 'Tunisian Virus' seem to infect at an amazing speed, but it seems to make the 'host' follow the same useless preventive steps.

Syria announcing it's Government has stepped down today is somewhat comparable to a Mayor in Nazi Germany declaring he is leaving an Hitler saying "everything is good now". WOW. . Did I just compare Syria to Nazi Germany?? Yep... You bet!!! If the shoe fits, wear it!!!

Look at the order of events in the past two months.

            1. The infected nation declares assemblies to protest are not authorized.

            2.  When that doesn't work, they announce, "REFORMS"!! Right!!!

            3.  When that doesn't work, they announce key members of the government stepping                 down or being replaced.

            4.  When that doesn't work, they announce the ' incentives for the public like cold hard cash in the poor's pockets.

            5. And Finally, they announce the pending bloodshed or the proverbial 'Civil War' threat.

If you look at Syria, they have accomplished steps, 1,2 and 3.

I don't know they may just skip 4 given the money issues in Syria. Number 4 seems to be a trick for the OPEC states.

So, Look for step 5 from Syria in the next few days.

Don't forget what I have been preaching over and over again.

Syria and their 'Master' Iran may add a twist to step 5 by cooking off an event somewhere else.

It could be that Bahrain is about to pop back on the radar.



WHATI??? MAHDI????

So Iranian senior leadership believes the time of the 'Mahdi' is near?

At face value or if the world was just bebopping  along right now, that might be a laughable statement.

The problem is the world is not bebopping along and as is always the case in the Middle East there could Easley be a 'message in the message'.

Let's take a look at why Iran may be sending this message at this particular point in time.

1.  Iran is potentially in REAL,, REAL trouble!!

            I've been talking for weeks now about the 'Tunisian Virus' and its ability to infect Iran.

            The Virus is in Syria and they have it bad! This creates pure panic in Iran.

            Iran cannot execute the dream of the next Persian Empire without the proxy of Syria.

            They cannot execute their grand plan against Israel if the Virus infects Syria and then   Iran before Iran is ready.

            They know if the common people in Iran really revolt against the fanatical leadership, the            regular military may follow them. It is a VERY young Military.

            The loyal units may even have large defection rates.

2. Iran may be deciding to move up their timetable!

            They may very well believe they don't have  a choice.

            Time is not on their side with the Virus.

            The violence in Israel over the past two weeks may not be a 'home grown' event.

                        I don't believe they are.

            Iran knows Israel will not wait for Iran to take the first strike.

            Iran saw Israel begin to prepare for far more ominous events by deploying the ' Iran, I   mean Iron Dome'.

It seems so illogical for Iran to actually be trying to rationalize the advantage of a Regional War, but everything their twisted leadership believes in could be lost in the Virus and I  can't imagine an issue that would make them any more desperate than coming to the realization they are about to lose control of not only Iran, but their dream of regional dominance.   

Second Order Effects of the Virus!!

They could be far worse than the Virus itself.



THINK THE MAD DOG CAN KILL PEOPLE? LOOK AT SYRIA'S HISTORY!

If logic and history  follows, we should be attempting  a " No Fly Zone" over Syria in about two weeks!!

Yes, I am being facetious, or I hope I'm being facetious!!

I will not comment on what actions the US takes and I will not second guess or nation's leadership, but I doubt that professional attitude will hold with the rest of the public.

Let me get to my point.

In 1982, the Syrian Government slaughtered over 20,000 people in their last real uprising.

Syria is, as I have been saying all along, in real.... real ... trouble!

The actions of the old Syrian Government will not garner the same response of the free world if the current Syrian  leadership tries to repeat history.

Syria understands this, yet they are as desperate as they were in 1982, if not more so.

The 'Cold War' is no longer the 'glue' that holds the Middle East together.

The fear of Super Power conflict is not the counterweight to idiot dictators it use to be.

Having said this, Syria is desperate to keep the 'Tunisian Virus' from spreading any further.

The options of the Government are few and they will not like any of them.

            1. Step down . OUT OF THE QUESTION!

            2. Turn into a Civil War. Hard to do when over 90 percent of your military forces are made up of           Sunni young men.  A HUGE problem and Syria knows it.

            3.  Ask for help!  Interesting twist to this logic put out by DEBKA ( www.debka.com) today.

             A great place to find simple facts about the status of the Middle East.

            http://www.debka.com/article/20803/

            4. Turn up the heat somewhere else!  I actually beat DEBKA to this theory a few weeks ago, so           that gives me the right to talk to this point.

                        A. To use Hamas and Hezbollah without the permission of Iran would be a real crack in                           the Alliance between Syria and Iran.

                        B. Iran still intends to keep Hamas and Hezbollah as proxy war-fighter options in case                              they have to go to war with Israel.

                        C. Iran could support the concept of a limited action by their puppet Armies if they                                   believe the Syrian situation is getting out of hand. HINT .... IT IS!!

So, What do I think is about to happen?

I cannot over emphasize how dangerous the events in Syria truly are!

As DEBKA stated at the end of their article, it is not out of the question option number four is chosen.

I believe they will go with option four.

To do this they will have to get permission, guidance from  Iran.

Iran will give the green / red light.

If Iran refuses Syria's request, and I don't think they will, then Syria has yet another HUGE decision to make.

Heed their 'Master's' guidance and do as Iran tells them, or ignore Iran and strike out on their own.

Assad has given the idea of breaking away from Iran some thought in the past two years, but not any real serious thought.

That may be about to change.

The next few days are going to be a simmering time for the Middle East and especially Israel.

One thing I will be watching that I have been curious about for several years is the issue of who really 'calls the ball' when it comes to Hamas and Hezbollah?

When push comes to shove, who does Hamas and Hezbollah listen to? Iran / Syria?

Can we be about to see a conflict / split / between not only Iran and Syria but Hamas and Hezbollah?

It's going to be a very interesting coming week.