OK; HERE WE GO!

Remember today. Remember when the American People said, "we need to help those poor people in Libya".

I seem to remember the same sentiment soon after 9-11. That is not to compare 9-11 to events in Libya, but the American People have very short memories.

It very possible the Mad Dog may be overcome by events given the destruction of many of his military assets, but if he does survive, a wounded Dog is a very dangerous animal!

A few things to ponder here.

            1. He knew these strikes were probably coming and had ample time to move key assets away         from recently targeted sites.  

                        Don't bank on the fact that because over one hundred missiles were fired that his capabilities are  drastically reduced.

Battle Damage Assessment is a very tricky art and is usually not   reliable  without eyes and ears on the ground to confirm damage.

            2.  Many Arabs were in favor of a no fly zone, but large scale targeting of building complexes       may not sell as well in the press.

            3. You can bet, as I said a few days ago, the Mad Dog will produce civilian casualties, even if he has to kill them himself!

                        Get ready for the Al Jazerra clips of wounded children and Women. It's going to happen.

            4. Iran is taking real good notes. They just got a real good idea of how we target Command and    Control nodes in a hostile nation.

                        What we bombed in Libya will be quickly analyzed  by Iran.

            5.  Those in Libya that were sitting on the fence, not really carinig about the 'Rebels' but not          willing to get involved, will now get involved and do so on the side of the Government.

            It's like the old saying, " It may be a crapy Marriage, but it's my Marriage".

            Nothing sparks Nationalism faster than being attacked.

            Many there felt the conflict was an 'internal' affair.

            We just changed that opinion!

Ok; Don't get me wrong. I've been  for killing  the Mad Dog  since the day of Lockerby; but we are  now deep into what I consider a brilliant trap by the Iranians.

Yep; we, the West, not just the US, have executed just as Iran anticipated we would.

How in the world do we support Saudi, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait ect... ect...  and finally Israel after bombing Libya?

Don't get fooled by some talking head saying, " this is a much different situation. He was killing 'innocent' civilians.

In the eyes of the Arabs, particularly the Shi, there is no difference.

I can't tell you where the military action in Libya may head.

How things start are not near as important as how they end up or how they change.

I can predict one thing for sure.

Over the course of the next few months, Iran is going to make HUGE gains based on the

actions of the ' Colonial Powers'.    Yep, that is the buz word name we will wear after today. Hell' we wear it not anyway.



WHAT FIRE WOULD YOU LIKE TO TALK ABOUT ?

Short and sweat tonight.

Pick a crisis you want to worry about.

Japan?

            Ugly and sad, but not going to change the outcome of the world, with the exception of the             paranoia of Nuclear Power.

Yemen?

            A fire that is going to grow shortly and most people don't understand how important this event is.

            Remember what I said about the location of Yemen and the paranoia of Saudi.

Bahrain?

            Ugly and will soon be the focal point of a possible conflict between Iran and Saudi. Not a shooting war, but a war of words that could set the alliance between the Saudis and Israel.

Libya?

            I said it last night, but I will say it again.

            To bomb the current government in Libya is possibly  to set up the future of another that will not    have the interest of the West and shurly will not have a peaceful relationship with Israel on it's  mind.

Saudi?

            Quickly traveling down the road of unrest. I just wonder if they understand they are about to see   their own people, mostly Shi, protesting their presence in Bahrain?

            So many problems coming their way it will make for a long Summer.

Like I said, if you want to worry about the state of things to come, there is a whole list to work from.

Of course, you could worry about who is going to win Survivor or Dancing with the Stars.

Sometimes, ignorance really is bliss.



BAHRAIN RETHINKS A BAD IDEA

Two weeks ago Bahrain's leadership made a terrible decision to allow  Hassan Mushaima to come back to Bahrain.

As soon as this guy hit the ground, probably before he hit the ground, he started planning the next phase of violence in Bahrain.

If you don't think he had 'help'  / Iran  / then you still don't understand what is going on in the Gulf .

Putting him in custody along with a few others was the right thing to do, but I'm affraid it might be too late.

The mistake was letting him back into the country.

For weeks now I have been talking about Saudi and its neighbors to the East need to start framing this event as an Iranian lead operation based on Iran taking advantage of the ' good people' who are trying to make their lives better.

Yep, Iran is a Hijacker. Nothing new there!!

What Iran has  done is move from Airplanes to movements.

On the bright side, I did see another slight hint that Bahrain  understands this Iranian operation.

If you read this link, you will see they accused Mushaima and others of working with 'other countries' to organize the protest.

In the world of not wanting to inflame a volatile environment it is understandable Bahrain may not want to call out Iran, but they will need to do so by the time events in Bahrain  really taking over the international news.

Events in Japan are buying Bahrain and Saudi time, but it's also buying Iran time.

Side note; someone needs to school Bahraini  Police and Military on the subject of cell phone cameras!

The clip that made the news today, Al Jazeera, of the three trucks turning the corner and gunning down the two guys standing along the wall is going to go a long ways at inflaming the public as well as playing on Iranian news channels.

What Saudi has designed in Bahrain is a 'testing ground' on how to respond to the 'Tunisian Virus' when it comes to Saudi.

Dealing with the mobile media is something Saudi is not good at, but they better figure it out real quick.

  

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/201131733318735470.html



BAHRAIN ; EVERYTHING GOING IRAN'S WAY!!

Bahrain took a real turn for the worse late last night.

It was one thing to have Saudi and UAE forces, part of the 'Peninsula Shield' concept to show up in Bahrain, but to have Bahrain go into action as soon as the support showed up has caught even the Iranians off guard. it surly caught the West off guard!

The PS concept is sound and the idea of moving support troops in to free up the Bahrain forces to deal with its own public is just what all of us would expect.

Here is the problem, it didn't and won't stop Iran from making huge strategic gains in the war of information.

Saudi will be painted as the 'proxy / thugs' sent into Bahrain by the 'Colonial Powers' for the simple issue of preserving the oil flow to the West.

This story line will play well in the general public of the Middle East. It already is!

Why Saudi and the West don't paint the picture of Iranian medaling  in Gulf State Affairs is mindboggling to me.

Sometimes the fear of making things worse is more destructive than being reckless.

So; what will  happen next.

Bahrain and the other Gulf states have bought themselves some time at the price of the next round being worse.

It's hard to get people to stand up front in a crowd when the Government is shooting Buckshot.

Oh ya;  using buckshot / riot shotguns was a much better tactic than combat weapons.

Buckshot, as the press is calling it and I would bet it's actually Birdshot, lets the shooter wound several at a time without rounds traveling another mile or more killing people who are not at the protest.  A tactic Egypt didn't figure out.

Iran is preparing the next line of communications to the Shi group leaders in Bahrain.

They most likely had the next round figured out based upon the Bahrain Government taking action against the protestors.

Simply put, Iran has a 'master plan' and the rest of the world is simply reacting to what Iran executes.

Has anyone talked about Iran's nuclear weapons program in the past two months???? NOPE..

Now that is a good plan..

Iran is way ahead in this game and we are getting closer and closer to the buzzer!!





SAUDI MAKES IT'S FIRST MOVE!

Well; three weeks ago, I was betting Saudi would move into Bahrain if need be.

Yesterday they moved in.

The fact they moved with military forces not police members is probably based upon their preexisting plan with Bahrain. 

 The Gulf States have a compact with each other. It was originally designed to counter Iraq moving into Kuwait again.  I would think this is the pretence for moving Saudi and probably UAE units into Bahrain. UAE or other Gulf state troops will be nothing more than a token force to show it is not just Saudi acting unilaterally.

Iran will have a canned press announcement given they anticipated this taken place.  They will also script a response for the Shi instigators to get in front of the cameras with.  

I find it fascinating, that if the horrific events in Japan would not have happened, the site of Saudi units crossing the causeway bridge into Bahrain  would have caused the price of a barrel of oil to shoot up probably to   over 120 dollars a barrel; when it fact it is going down today.

The pressure on the price of fuel may be impacted by the events in Japan, but the fuse is still burning in the Middle East.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

So what's it going to take to head off the "Tunisian Virus" leading to open hostilities in Israel?

If you don't believe the 'end state' of the uprisings in the Middle East is not angry mobs marching on Israel, you need to look at buying some Oceanfront  property in Arizona.

Iran will not rest until the ' day of rage' is a week of violence in Jerusalem.

Israel knows this and so does the Us, at least I think the Us knows this. I wouldn't place any bets, but we can hope!

I know I have already talked about the relationship that may have to develop between Saudi and Israel to keep the " Persian Empire" from forming, but I have struggled with figuring out how this might come about..   

The common bound is the simple truth that nether country believes they can count on the US during the crisis.

I'm not totally sure that is true, but I do understand their concerns.

Perception is reality and the perception in Israel and Saudi is they cannot depend on the US.

So what do they have to offer each other?

This is the part I didn't talk about before.

Saudi has one huge strategic as well as tactical aspect to Israel's planning for Iran.

Location... Location... Location.!!!

Israel may not be able to launch strikes from Saudi, but quietly being able to cross its airspace and utilize the air bases for refueling would drastically shorten the attack scheme.

In the typical fashion of Arab State of Affairs, Saudi would deny and deny again any support or even knowledge of Israel Air Operations over on Saudi soil.

Somewhat like when I worked 30 miles outside of Mecca and listen to the King announce no Americans were on Saudi ground!!

Ok; short and sweat!

Saudi needs help to stave off what they know is coming.

Israel must prevent the "Tunisian Virus" from developing into  "days of Rage" in Israel.

Here is the problem.

They are running out of time.

This will not happen overnight and the 'Virus' is moving much faster than both of them are planning.

The window of this alliance is not going to last long.

Side note:

I have watched the Libyan 'Rebels' potentially change their tactics in the past 24 hrs.

This could be the first sign of my prediction of 'new leadership' taking the over in their cause.

Yep, the alliance with the Radicals may be underway, but I want to watch a few tactical issues over the next day or so to prove to myself this is true.

Hint; keeping the Media away from the 'Rebel' frontlines is a possible first sign of the 'change'.

We will see.