RUNNING INTO THE ARMS OF THE REAL ENEMY!

Last night, I mentioned the Libyan 'Rebels' could very well end up aligning with the true enemy, the fanatical Muslims.

This still may not happen, but I would still place my bets on some version of this event taking place.

The 'rebels' could be more than desperate within the next 48 hrs and they will have two basic options.

            1.  Surrender, unconditionally; not likely given they know the history of the Mad Dog and his               enemies.

            2.  Falling into the arms of the fanatics.  

Determining what will happen under the fist scenario is drop dead easy.  The key members are rounded up and killed. the rest are placed in a camp.

It's scenario number two that has a complex side to it.

If the 'rebels' ( I keep placing them in quotations given that is a title someone else has tagged  on them that I don't happen to agree with), allow the fanatics to take tactical control of their fight, they will be pulled in one of two directions.

            1. The Beirut Lebanon Option.

                        If you remember how the ten years of Beirut executed, I don't need to explain much here.

                                    I don't have a lot of confidence in this option for the 'rebel / fanatic alliance given                          what a ruthless individual the Mad Dog is. He will not stand for it!

                        If you don't know what I'm talking about, Google is my answer:)

            2.  The classic world of "LIC" / Ok; I will help you out with this one.

            LIC / Low Intensity Conflict!.

                        The UBL  " A Game" : think of the last nine years in Afghanistan.

                        Hit and run, IEDs. ect... ect..  No real enemy to react to. They just fade into the                                       population.

                        Again, the Mad Dog will move hard against this type of operation, but he will be in a                                 very wounded position even when he does win this current Civil War and will have to                           take his time turning back up the heat.

The Mad Dog might crush the rebellion in its current form, but the next phase will be based on violence for an extended period of time.



So now what?

Mad Dog has the 'Rebels' on the run.

The Arabs will never accept US or EU intervention even though they want him gone!

Is the US in a " you can't win" scenario?

It sure seems like it.

Most people are starting to realize a ' no fly zone' is a pipe dream.

I heard our leadership say today nobody can arm the 'rebels' because we don't know who they really are?

This is what we call in Police work a CLUE!!!!  Glad to see someone was reading my work:)

So, back to my original question; now what?????

Let's take a look at a few options:

1. Mad Dog regains the East and ask the 'rebels' to put down their arms? 

            Don't count on it until the 'rebels' realize they are going to be completely overrun and the desertion rates go way up.  Oh.. in a few days, It  will go WAY UP. Most will try and blend in  and act like they were on the sidelines the whole time.

            Here is a 'CLUE' The Mad Dog has his 'eyes and ears / spies / inside their ranks as I write this.

            He has not stayed in power as a ruthless Dictator for over forty years by being stupid.  

2. The 'Rebels' take on new desperate leadership; Code for the Fundamentalist!!!

            Why? Because they don't know what the hell they are doing and they are going to panic in the  next few days.

            If this happens, the tempo of the whole fight will change.

3. Guerilla  Warfare becomes the next option.

            This is where I would place my bets if I was in Vegas!!!

            The 'rebels, what's left of them in a few days, will gravitate towards those who will step up and     offer their 'services'.

            Desperate men will take desperate deals and this is the deal I believe they will take.

Tomorrow night I will talk about how the fight will change if this allinece takes place.

Oh ya; watch the talking heads and see if they come up with this theory. I think they are hacking my blog page:)



CONCESSIONS AND MORE CONCESSIONS.

Saudi, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Kuwait, ect....ect...

All of these are in the process of trying to fight off the 'Tunisian Virus'.

What's the old saying, 'Give an inch.... take a mile'!!!

I can't tell you how much the leaders of these countries are starting to really panic.

Saudi will try and draw a line in the sand, I know cheesy, with Bahrain, but I just don't see what the King can do to fend off the opposition.  

Oman is a Goose that will take longer than Bahrain to cook, but it's in the pot.

Yemen will go next, Yemen could easily be the lead story over Libya in just a few days.

Oh ya, that is driving the Saudis wild just as much as Bahrain. Don't forget where Yemen is located.

Kuwait has little to work with other than praying the attention goes to Saudi before it comes to them.

Problems in Saudi may force the hands of the major players before Kuwait has to face the full blown 'Virus'.

I have posted two links to two very important stories.

One has to deal with Saudi and how they are trying to appease those who will be un appeasable.

The other is the most important of the two. It deals with the PA and Israel. A great snap shot into a very scary future.

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12663240

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/03/20113591155659973.html



THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES!

Over the weekend the chatter of supporting the 'rebels' in Libya continued to grow.

I've already explained why the concept of enforcing a 'no fly zone' is far more difficult not to mention risky than most people think.

So; let's talk about  yet another great idea circulating out there in the land of political tacticians and talking heads.

Let me start with the punch line up front.

Arming the 'rebels' is a catastrophically stupid idea!!!

If anyone has been paying attention to the news clips, ignore all the jabber especially from the reporters and look at what the pictures tell you.

When I see a anti aircraft gun being manned by what appears to be the village idiot twirling around and around on the gun like a four year old, it gives you an idea as to why the Mad Dog may die of old age in his capital.

Oh ya; and all the firing rounds into the air, not stopping to realize those rounds have to come down somewhere.... yep... you get the picture.....

So let's think about this for a minute.

Let's suppose the US or the EU provides weapons to the 'rebels' the spinning idiots, does anyone think for a minute these weapons will be tactically utilized? the FIRST CLUE!!!!

Now, let's suppose 'others' are beginning to enter Libya, standing in the shadows just waiting for the right moment in time to turn the tide in the direction they want it. Yep; I've talked about these guys a few days ago.

So; here is how the event goes down.

" I understand you and your 'brothers' are not really militarily trained. Please allow me and my 'brothers' to help you in this great cause".

Do you get the picture yet?

Those that do not know how to fight will gravitate towards those that do and are willing to help them.

This is where the real 'enemy' inserts themselves.

When the dust clears, the young have done the hard work and the radicals are armed by the West!!!

If you don't think this can happen, then you have not been paying attention to Africa for the past thirty years.  

Just think if the US government woke up one morning and realized UBL's followers have been equipped by the US AGAIN!!! It was called Afghanistan the first time. 

Oh ya, those young Libyan 'rebels' that they swore to help, they will be enslaved once again

Tomorrow night's topic is going to be Saudi..

Hint; it's not going well and could get much, much worse soon!!!





WHAT TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND!

Ok; I have to keep this short and sweet tonight.

Here is what I think we should keep an eye on this weekend.

Libya; not so much.  The media is going to have to get creative this weekend to keep the public viewing audience up.

The 'Rebels' don't have the ability to take the capital and the Mad Dog doesn't have, just yet, what it takes to regain the Eastern part of the country.

My bet is, early next week, he makes real steps in taking back his country.

 Let's see how the rest of the world reacts to this fact.

So; here is what we need to keep an eye on.

First and foremost, Yemen! The stars are coming together quickly for Yemen to be the next pitched battle zone. Sides were drawn up in the past two days that have all but sealed the fate of a conflict in Yemen; much to the dismay of Saudi.

Secondly; Bahrain! As with Yemen, the lines for conflict have really solidified in the past two or three days and Bahrain is in for real turmoil.

Saudi will get directly involved in Bahrain if need be.   They have no choice!!!

Finally; Oman!  Between Oman, Yemen and Bahrain, Saudi is practically surrounded with bad news.

Oman will not 'blow up' this weekend, but the final touches for confrontation will probably be set by the Iranian masters with an execution timeline linked to issues in Bahrain and Yemen as the main objective.

The 'Snake' is clearly out in the open now. Iran! 

The good news is, the 'Mongoose' / Israel understands what need to be done.

Wild times are coming!

SO WHAT IS UP WITH HUGO  AKA : MR. BASEBALL!!!

Ok; here is the funny part about Hugo coming to the aid of the Mad Dog.

Hugo and Iran have been sucking up to each other for over three years now.

Iran would like nothing more than the Mad Dog to get tossed out of Libya.

So why is Hugo jumping in bed with Iran's enemy?

I've been asking myself this same question all day long.

Hugo is a egomaniac like most despot, leaders; but I will admit he is a sly Fox.

It could be he is doing this in coordination with Iran, but I doubt it.

Iran needs him more than he needs Iran.

His real goal maybe to show the OPEC leaders what a valuable player he is on the world scene.

If not OPEC, then my guess is he is out to just build his stature given he sees himself as the next Castro of the World. A guy from a small country that has worldly influence.

He may just be gambling Iran will not abandon him just for sticking his nose into the North Africa issue.

He is probably confident he is not really going to change the course of Libya or the events in North Africa and the Middle East, but he can still get his name in the marquee lights.

Trust me, if he really starts to disrupt some grand plan on the part of Iran, he will hear about it.

Here is the interesting issue.

If the King of Saudi and others see Hugo as having even a remote chance of stemming the tide of rebellion, they will all be chanting his name.

Two weeks ago, I sat and thought about the 'Tunisian Virus' coming to Central and South America.

I sat and pondered Hugo's relationship with the Mad Dog.

I am very interested in where this is heading and I must admit I'm a little puzzled!!!



1. 

DOWN BUT NOT OUT!!

Ok; here is the interesting question of the day and I can't believe the talking heads have not brought it up yet.

what if the Mad Dog of Libya wins?

What is the message to the other paranoid leaders in the Middle East such as Bahrain and Saudi?

What does the West do?

 How about the UN?

 I know....  they are worthless but I had to ask the question.

For several days now the news media warriors and their army of talking heads have painted the picture of this massive rebellion building just outside the Libyan capital. Watching young men hold a weapon like a sixteen year old holding hands on their first date told me everything I needed to know. A percentage of the Libyan Military may have jumped sides, but not the right ones or not enough to really make a difference.

 Oh ya; the UBL / Radical supporters are lurking in the shadows and staying inside the Mosque.  They will let the young and dumb get ground up like hamburger and then send the next wave in yelling for them to, " Avenge the Martyrs"!!!!!!! That has always been their style/ lead from the rear!

So the short story is Mad Dog just might pull this one off. He may survive.

Not going  to spend time talking about what a fiasco that would be for the over confident West.

Lets look at what this might mean to the leaders of Nation States that are scared stiff right now.

Is the message going to be, bloody their noses and do whatever it takes to survive?

Boy wouldn't that p.ss off Mubarak. " You mean to tell me if I had gone Chinese on them, I could have won"?

Mad Dog is a slick character to say the least.

He has known from day one the US and the Europeans are not about to set foot on Libyan soil.

Find a half truth / radicals  are behind the uprising / stoked with a little anti US redirect  and then start shooting the "Rebels".

Does this mean the King of Saudi is willing to risk a Civil War to stay in power?

No, but is he convinced Libya is going to have a Civil War and if they do have one and it last two or three weeks with little collateral damage to the infrastructure of the country, then maybe so!

Who knows what it means to the King and those like him.

What it does mean is instantly cashing in the  keys to the kingdom may not have to be the only option.

Like I have said for weeks; this is an interesting period in history.