HONG KONG. JUST WHAT IS GOING ON? 

Hong Kong. I touched on the topic last week, but it seems to be an issue that is not cooling down. Who does Hong Kong belong to? If you ask China, the answer is black and white. If you ask the people of Hong Kong, you get a very different response.  Now, we could kill time talking about the history of Hong Kong and what agreements were made, but if you know me, that's simply not my style. Hong Kong is a "issue" with the Chinese and in an age of perceptions, the "issue" of Hong Kong cannot be underestimated. 

Facts: 

Events in Hong Kong are based upon a large percentage of the people simply not wishing to be assimilated into the Borg ship called China. Can they completely break away? no. Can they attempt to form a working relationship that allows them to be somewhat attached to China? Well, that was the initial agreement, but times have changed and China has changed. What is Honk Kong to China? If you answered an economic engine, you are only partially  correct. If you answer Hong Kong is a potential thereat to the communist form of government in China, BINGO....you win the prize. Fact. Hong Kong is a threat to the new emperor and his dream of world dominance. Fact. Outside forces are at play in making Hong Kong a point of tension with the emperor. Now, is that "outside" force based upon the US? In my opinion, that line of thought gives too much credit to the US's strategic planing process. The US now lives in a perpetual cycle of elections and spends most of it's energy in a continuous game of campaigning. Could the US be responsible for what is taking place in Hong Kong? Maybe....................maybe! Here is the most important fact to take away from this post. The Emperor and his court believe, truly believe, the US is behind the events in Hong Kong and at the end of the day, that is all that matters. 

What does the Emperor believe:

Hong Kong is being leveraged as part of a much larger plan to "contain" China. "Contain". A word US political leaders have used over and over again. It's a word that could easily come back to haunt them as well as the American people. Hong Kong is a pawn in the US / China trade wars. Again, perception is reality in the 21st century. American flags, The Star Spangled Banner. What else is Beijing to believe? Funding and coordination to student activist groups in Hong Kong. Try not linking that to the West. Okay, here is the bottom line. Beijing is convinced the US is behind the events in Hong Kong. Now, in order to get this story to where it needs to be, we need to move off this point and concentrate on some level of predictive analysis. 

What does it mean: 

What options does the Emperor have for this issue of Hong Kong? That my friends is where the real danger begins. As I have said before, can the Chinese simply crush the protesters in Hong Kong? If they decided to do so, it would only be an indication of just how worried they had become of what the whole thing could lead to. By the way. Some "experts" say the level of nationalistic pride in China's youth is higher than anywhere else in the world. If that were true, Beijing wouldn't be as upset as they showing us.  To them Hong Kong is a crack in the armor and they fear that crack may spread. If nationalism was so strong, that worry would not be there. China is worried and a worried China can easily turn into a angry China and an angry China has many...... options.

Options:

What is the historic, classical response to external interference? If you answered counter interference, wow, you are on a hot streak. Let's pick a few options we need to watch for. 

North Korea:

Yep, the Rabid Dog on a short leash. A few missile test simply may not be good enough. If Hong Kong doesn't calm down, perhaps the Little Fat Boy in North Korea is ordered to break off all ties with The Donald. Wouldn't the Democrats love to jump on that issue. You can bet the Emperor knows that option is out there. What is The Donald going to do, go to war with North Korea in an election cycle? Not hardly. Yes, North Korea and everything bad thing about that place could now be in play.

Iran:

Iran desperately needs a life support nation. Just today, TASS ran a story about a "new agreement" between Russia and Iran and a pending joint operation in the Straits. Is that true? That's a whole different story to address, but it would be easy for China to add to the tension. Did anyone happen to see the story last week concerning tankers outfitting themselves with Chinese flags in the Straits? Again, that's a story that needs to be addressed as well, but is Iran in play over the Hong Kong issue? You better believe it is.

Venezuela:

Sound unrealistic? If you said no, wow, you are on your way be becoming a Talking Head on cable news. Pressure in the US's "backyard" is not a new concept to Beijing and such a move would be a real "tit for tat" when it comes to the issue of Hong Kong. Close your eyes and imagine an announcement from Venezuela on a "joint" military base in Venezuela. Chinese aircraft and ships not just visiting,but stationed there. Oh, by the way, you can toss in US arms sales to Taiwan if you need more fuel for this theory. 

Mexico:

Mexico? Did I say Mexico? yes.....yes I did. Just how upset is Beijing? Upset enough to strike a deal with the new ultra Socialist President of Mexico? All it would take is the rumor of a "joint" Chinese / Mexican adventure and DC would finally pay attention to it's neighbor to the South.  Want to rule this scenario out?  Let's see how bad Hong Kong gets. 

Okay, I could go on and on, but here is the overriding point. Beijing is not going to take the events in Hong Kong without countering in some manner. Does the Emperor blame the US? We've already been over that point. Is Hong Kong vital to China's future? It's not just vital, it's critical. 

With so much going on in the world, it's easy to not focus on this Hong Kong issue. As the US slips into the electoral version of Pon Farr, miscalculating China's temperament is a very....very...dangerous course of action, but then again, once the US Pon Farr starts, nothing....absolutely noting else matters. 

THE ART OF WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY.

Master Sun was a 6th century expert on the art of war. His concept of how a conflict should be fought from a perspective of mental preparedness is timeless. Here is the problem. Probably 1/10th of 1 percent of the political leadership in this world have taken the time to not only read Master Sun, but to comprehend what he was saying. Is the next major conflict going to be different? Absolutely. Will any of those involved in the event follow the wisdom of Master Sun? I doubt that very much. So, why bother with this post? Why go back and rehash a topic I have covered time and time again? I will tell you why. Because the "art of beating the enemy mentally next time around is going to be vital to who comes out victorious. 

Messages that seem to go unseen:

Last week, Europe suffered from a nearly complete failure of Global Positioning Systems / GPS networks. So widespread was this event, most "experts" found it highly unlikely this event was some type of software hickup. In reality, GPS "games" / Weapons Test, for that is what I believe these events are, have been going on for several years. In reality, these "weapons test" have been taking place all over the globe, but like any weapons program under development or upgrade, the owner must continue to "test" them from time to time. It is these "test" that adversaries typically gain knowledge of only once they are underway. Last week in Europe is the latest example. Now it seems, MI-6 believes the latest round of GPS weapon testing took place during the incident with the tanker Impero. Was the tanker in Iranian waters? No, or Tehran would have used that as the excuse. Did the tanker think it was further away from Iranian waters than it actually was and thus allowed the IRGC to have a much faster turn time during the highjacking? most likely. Should the UK have seen how close the tanker was getting to Iranian waters, if this story is true, then yes, they should have. Have the Russians provided the Mullahs with this level of technical capabilities? If so, the "message" there is more important than the event itself. Remember the Master's point about the mindset of the enemy. Was this the topic of the news media in the US this week? Of course not. Did the "right people" take notice? Oh........you bet they did. did the other side, the US, take a turn at the same game? Yep. Remember my comment about the power grid events in Venezuela last week? Yep..... messaging, unless our adversaries took a shot at that weapons test knowing the US would take the blame. Fun game huh?  

Selfish promotion time again:

How much do I believe this new version of warfare will determine the course and outcome of the next major war? So, much so I used one of these events to become the baseline for my book. Look, folks, for those of you who don't spend your day, and I hope that is most of you, wondering how the next conflict might start, where it will take place and why, let me make a very dark prediction. If you think anything you have seen on the news media in the past thirty years will give you an idea of what would take place, you are in for a terrible surprise. I've said this before, but I will keep saying it because it's important. Most of the people in this world will understand something major is taking place not by seeing some "expert" on cable news telling you what you should think. Most will find out when they realize everything they come into contact with doesn't work. Last week, Europe could rely on GPS. This week, ships were lied to by their own computers. Two months ago, American Airlines could schedule flights to the right location. Weapons test. That is what these events most likely were. It's that level of confusion and panic I address in "pending" book....yep....pending..It's at the Kendal review level right now:). 

Imagine:

Imagine a mobilizing military unit's logistics section preparing to have follow on equipment from commercial vendors ready to show up at another location and then, weeks later finding out that equipment was shipped somewhere else. Imagine a Fighter Wing preparing to deploy only to find out all the unit's medical data has been lost or corrupted. Imagine, three weeks into a conflict and suddenly, hundreds of members of the 82nd Airborne's families are notified in the middle of the night their loved ones had been killed. Imagine trying to explain to all of them the text and emails they received were not true.  Imagine thousands of over the road truckers getting bad information on what items to pick up and where. I could go on and on, but the point I am making comes back to Master Sun and one of his primary principles of war. You must understand what impacts your enemy the most and you must be willing to use that weapon without remorse. Years ago, people sat in Las Vegas and watched nuclear weapons being tested just North of their location. Many even had parties for such events. Today's weapons test are taking place all around us, but I don't think you will see any parties. 

A few days ago, I was on Dan Horowitz’s show and the topic was Iran. I like talking to Dan given he is a Constitutional Law expert. Anyway, he asked me to provide an update on what was taking place with Iran and where I thought the issue may be heading next. He was a little taken back when I gave him my opinion. You see, the last time I was on his show, I made a real argument about how confused I was over the actions of Team Trump. It seemed Tehran was beating the US around the head in the perception game and at that point in time I think I was right. The called off limited strike by the US was the apex of what seemed to be a completely disorganized US plan. I believed that then and I still had that opinion on Dan’s show this time around. But and this is a huge but, something changed and that change is what I spent most of that hour addressing. I know Dan has a large following on his show, but I also know a lot of people outside the US read my blog. So, my goal today is to give you my opinion of what I believe changed with Team Trump. 

Let the experts talk:

On the day The Donald decided to go with a COA/ Course of Action / given him by his, “experts”, most likely his National Security Advisor and his Secretary of State, two men who rumor has it, The Donald is having issues with, it was clear the administration was in near meltdown mode. Calling off whatever strike package had been approved and doing so at the very last second, gave the world the image of a US overwhelmed. As I stated on this site shortly after that event, it was most likely the CENTCOM Commander who convinced the President to stop the mission and that was probably based upon intelligence that showed Tehran was going to respond in a disproportionate manner. By the time this event was over, it was clear the President was completely frustrated. This was the first time in his term as President that he had to make a snap decision and one that was on a topic he truly had little background in. Much like Obama in Syria, The Donald was faced with a situation that could easily and quickly slide into a conflict no one in the US was ready for. Now, here is where it gets really interesting. A frustrated Trump has to be an ugly thing to watch. I have visions of LBJ during Vietnam and the fits he would display with his staff. Here is the other part of that picture that has to be considered. When this event was taking place, the pressure was on to do nothing that would upset the 2020 re-election process, a process that was already underway. The Donald had campaigned in 2016 that he would not take the US into another never-ending war as well as stating other nations needed to solve their own problems. When he was informed that Tehran was about to respond in a way that would quickly get out of control, he did the right thing, He asked his Combatant Commander what they should do and folks, there is the difference between an overwhelmed Obama or LBJ and The Donald. He asked the right person at the right moment in time what to do. Not his National Security Advisor. Not his Secretary of State, but the person who would be responsible for whatever action Tehran was going to take. Speculation? Yes, but my speculation is just as good as any other talking head who comes on network news. 

The lightbulb comes on:

The Donald did the right thing, he called off the strike, but then the perception battle was lost, at least temporarily and that is a concept that is vital in today connected world. Within a day or two, as it became clear just how bad the perception event had become with Tehran gloating, The Donald made another right move. There had to be a better plan for dealing with the Mullahs and it had to be based on keeping his word from 2016, but how? With everyone giving their opinion once again, I believe The Donald turned to the person who represents a group he has always admired and listened to. He once again turned to his Combatant Commander. All along, this Commander had provided input as to what was taking place with Tehran, but that input is scrubbed by several levels of policy and political “experts”. The polite way to say this is, the Commander’s ideas are either revised to make the rest of the staff look good or they are scrubbed to the point what is given to the President is nothing close to what the Commander wanted to say. That is the Normal way of how bunnies is conducted, but The Donald is anything but “normal”. It is my belief the middleman was cut out of the picture and The Donald turned to the CENTCOM Commander and said, “ what should we do”? I can tell you if that happened, those that think they control access to the President were more than angry. In typical Trump style, he turned to someone he respected and tossed out protocols and with that, we now see a new approach and it’s an approach that fits with the 2016 pledges to the American people.

Pressure:

Let’s assume I am correct. Let’s assume The Donald placed the process of dealing with the Iranian crisis on the shoulders of the CENTCOM Commander. Was the Commander ready to take on such a task? You can bet your life he was and is. When The Donald asked him, what should the US do, the answer came straight from the Commander, unfettered with two key people looking on with Steam coming out of their ears and we know who I'm talking about. When this Commander was given the opportunity to state how he would handle the situation, he was prepared. 

Pressure. It's a high-risk game when dealing with an unstable, radical government. The sanctions concept was a pathway to pressuring the Mullahs, but did the US ever have a plan ready in case the Mullahs chose conflict instead of capitulation? Was the concept of getting Moscow to agree to implement a regime change in Iran truly on the table? Who on Team Trump's staff supported such a move? Are there members who simply feel like striking the Mullahs is the real option? Just what did the CENTCOM Commander recommend? By looking at a few key events since the called off strike, we may be seeing a picture of a changed strategy. 

1.  The call for unified support in the region was a concept pushed by the CENTCOM Commander. It's his staff that truly works issues day in and day out with the nations of the Middle East. The rest of the DC crowd flys in and flys out after a fancy lunch or a quick photo op and if you have ever worked in the region, you know full well, the status of a US four Star General is far greater than any Son in Law or Ambassador or Secretary of State. It's just how the region works. Getting the Gulf Nations and "others" to prepare for greater pressure on Tehran was a CENTCOM generated concept that only the four-star could pull off. 

2. Getting the British to make the first move on an Iranian load of fuel was a tactic that only true operators could come up with. Ones that work the region every day of the week. By the way, the IC / Intelligence Community, have people assigned to CENTCOM and many have been there for years. It's a One Team, One Fight family and it's a powerful took when coming up with contingencies. Did the planners anticipate the Mullahs striking out at British assets first after this seizure event? You bet they did. Did you notice the results of the attempted attack on the HMS Duncan never indicated what finally came of the bomb boat? Think about it. Did the actions of the HMS Montrose catch the Mullahs off guard? yep. Yes, the IRGC was able to capture another ship afterward, but that was most likely a calculated risk, given the defensive posture and density of assets in the area of operations. The reality was and is, the narrative of what is taking place in the region was changing and the perception battle was beginning to turn. 

3. Meeting with Hassan Kohmenei. Remember what I said about the IC having people assigned to CENTCOM. On a typical day, those people have the same restrictions the CENTCOM Commander has. Ideas are vetted by the parent agencies before they are placed on the table for the CENTCOM Commander. If the CENTCOM Commander was told to take lead on the Iranian crisis, then that means his staff was allowed to do so as well. The members of the IC still need to wash their opinions with Headquarters in DC, but the four-star gets final authority on information provided by the IC members. So, think about it. The US meets with the Grandson and a few members of the IRGC, something I addressed last week, and that story / rumor gets back to the Mullahs. Once again, what is the true objective? Changing the narrative of the whole event, that's what. 

What does it mean?

Is the situation dangerous? You bet it is. Is it possibly going to lead to confrontation? yes. Is the US seemingly gaining an upper hand? slowly, very slowly. Could deals be underway that are based on day to day relationships and not fly in and fly out political stunts? you bet. the deployment of US assets to PSAB in Suadi is not the work of the US DoS. It's the work of CENTCOM. It's the work of those who truly know the region and understand what it will take to defeat the Mullahs on the battlefield or by internal events. 

Team Trump needed to get into campaign mode and the events of the on and off attack were going to lead to a potential campaign bonanza for his opponents.  In my opinion, The Donald has turned the Iranian event over to the one organization that knows what can and cannot be achieved. The Donald most likely gave very angry and very clear guidance to his staff, all of them. The CENTCOM Commander has the lead on the Iranian issue and everyone is going to support his plan. Does this mean we are in calm waters? no. The Mullahs have want they want for now. They have a ship and the US / Brits have a ship. Do the Mullahs need to create the next event? most likely. How soon? That depends on how hard the sanctions are hurting? Are the Mullahs willing to sit down with the US? NO, not now and that leads to them making the next move, but the one thing we may be able to count on is the fact that next move is now being responded to by the right team...........Team CENTCOM. In the meantime, The Donald is on the road and pulling crowds that resemble 2016. If Iran strikes out, it will be impossible for the left to blame Trump, but don't fret, they will..................you know they will. 

IRAN'S NUCLEAR "DEAL" IS STILL ALIVE

So the EU states the Iranian nuclear "deal" is still alive? why of course it is. After all, what has Iran done to jeopardize the trust of the EU? Let's see. They have attacked six tankers in the past two months. their proxy fighters have launched countless missile attacks into Saudi Arabia. They attempted to highjack a British tanker. They shot down a US drone. They have threatened all shipping in the straits. They have demanded the EU take a knee and pacify Tehran's demands for economic aid. It's easy to see, the Mullahs have done nothing, "significant" to upset the agreement. with today's announcement from Ms. Mogherini, I am confident the threats and actions from Tehran will halt immediately. Mogherini. that must be French for Chamberlian. 

Now what:

Now that the EU has once again, done what they do best, take a knee, the question becomes, now what? Let me give you just a few clues. 1. The Mullahs will now up their demands. Not only will they want their oil to flow wherever they want it to, but they will also demand the EU pressure the US into discontinuing the sanctions. Now, they know full well the US will not listen to the EU, at least not as long as Trump is in the White House, well........at least I think the US won't. Rumors continue to flow of the US looking for an "offramp" from the Iranian issue. If that is true, and I am beginning to fear that it is, the old men in Tehran will turn up the heat even more. How ironic given that just a little over a week ago, the UK slapped the Mullah's upside the head of the attempted highjacking of the UK tanker. I could go on and on about the, " now whats", but let me take you back to a stark reality that somehow everyone seems to just wish away. 

The last vote:

Who gets the last and most important vote on the Iranian "deal"? Yep.....Israel. Does Israel need the EU's permission or support to act against the Iranian nuclear program? No. Does Isreal need the support of the US to conduct military operations against Iran? In a perfect scenario, yes, but with the recent backing down of Team Trump on the pending actions against Iran as well as the rumors of the US now looking for an "offramp", Israel may be coming back to a sobering reality, a reality they lived with for eight years under Obama. In the end, Israel may stand alone to prevent the Mullahs from obtaining nuclear weapons. If Team Trump is now looking to kick this issue past the next election cycle in the US, well, that gives the Mullah's breathing room. Even better for the Mullahs, if Trump were to lose, in the minds of the old men in Tehran, they might just be in the clear. They might think that, but their military commanders know better. 

How bad can it get:

Teletubbies of the EU will not prevent Israel from defending itself. Words spoken over a fancy conference table will not prevent the Mullahs from continuing their plan. If times change and Israel must act unilaterally, the repercussions will rest squarely on the shoulders of the EU and the US political circus. Netanyahu stated Europe is repeating the same mistakes of the 1930s. I am confident very few people understand the validity of his statement.  

Is Israel prepared to go to war to prevent nuclear weapons in the hands of the Mullahs? yes. Could that include a preemptive strike, a strike the EU and the US Democratic party would blame on Israel? yes. Does anyone know this? yes. The US, Russia and several others believe this reality. Are they in a position to stop such an event? Yes. How? Can a regime change take place in Iran without the US being involved? yes, just look to Moscow for the clue. Would Israel warn the US and Russia of a pending first strike? Perhaps the US, but the warning to the Russians would be just prior to offensive operations getting underway. Are the Israelis prepared for the response the Mullahs might authorize? Yes, at least as best as they can be. How can Israel mitigate that response? Here is the ugly part. If the days comes this horrific battle unfolds, look for the IDF to strike in an overwhelming event. What options would be left off the table for Israel? none, and I think you understand what I am implying here. 

Reality:

The EU can stick its head in the sand and repeat the nightmare of WWII. The US can allow it's cyclic political circus to make poor decisions. None of this will matter the moment Israel's intelligence agencies truly believe the Mullahs are about to have a nuclear capability. Look. let me make this as clear as I can. With the US's total support, the Iranian capabilities can be dramatically reduced in a very short period of time. does that mean yet another conflict in the Middle East? Does it mean it could happen before the next election cycle? That is up to the Mullahs. But......if.......if it happens and the military power of the US is not combined to quickly reduce Iran's military to the point the damage to the region and Israel is kept at acceptable levels, whatever that might be, and things start to go bad for Israel, then no one and I mean no one should be shocked at what takes place then. Yes, these are hard times. Yes, the American people have a war aversion. Yes, the EU believes the Mullahs are controllable. Finally; yes, the Israelis will do whatever needed to stop what it seems everyone else is just trying to wish away. The US wants an "offramp? Okay. I say that ramp only exist in one location, Moscow. Regime change doesn't have to be a US operation, but the price for convincing the Russians to make the event a reality is most likely high, very high. Perhaps a satellite image of the IAF uploading a "special" payload would convince someone the time to take an easier route is growing short.  

DID THE US MEET WITH HASSAN KHOMENEI AND MEMBERS OF THE IRGC?

Two days ago, I posted a podcast on a story I read that made me stop to think! Did the US meet, in secret, with the Grandson of the Ayatollah Khomenei and reps from the IRGC? Is this possible? Would the US do such a thing? Well, first off, you bet the US would and so would any other country in the world because that is how the world works. This meeting is allegedly to have taken place in Iraq. Unusual? No. Safe, neutral ground for the Grandson and the IRGC reps, that’s what Iraq would have provided. What would have been the purpose of such a meeting? Now, there is the Billion dollar question.

Why:

Why would the US agree to such a meeting and by the way, who arranged the meeting? Let’s put a few facts on the table and then we will drive on. First off, the Grandson. Why him? For the sake of keeping this simple, let me tell you why him. He’s not one of the “Chosen”. Yes his Grandfather is the founder of the revolution, but the current leadership sees him as a threat. You see, once you gain power, you are never in a hurry to turn power over to someone else. Short version; the Grandson is on the outside looking in and he has been very……..very vocal about that fact. Does he have relationships with “others” outside of Iran? You bet he does. If Moscow was to agree to a change in leadership inside of Iran, is the Grandson someone that is already willing to work with Moscow? Now, there is a concept I will have to come back to in a few because it’s vital to what I am driving towards.

The IRGC.

 If you have followed my post, you know I made a big deal out of the rumors the old men in Tehran wanted to move the IRGC under the regular Iranian military. War preparation? Maybe. Budget issues? Perhaps. Trust? Ah, now there is an issue that is at the top of the charts each and every day of the week in Tehran. For over a year, I’ve been talking about the relationships Moscow has been building with key IRGC and Al-Qud leaders. Operations and intentions in Syria were and are determined by commanders on the ground and the orders to those commanders come from Moscow. When those orders conflict with the guidance coming from Tehran, then you can bet the Russians are letting key Iranian military leaders know what the future may look like if Russian support were to change. Short answer, “ If we decide to pull the plug on the leadership in Tehran, you need to be on the right side of that event”. When the time comes, Moscow is known for clear messaging. Does the fact that key members of the IRGC came to this secret meeting once again point to Moscow’s involvement? You bet it does.

The Power of Rumors:

Imagine the reaction in Tehran when this story broke. Do the Mullahs keep track of the Grandson’s whereabouts? How could they not? Validating if he had recently been in Iraq would be a key clue in determining if this story was just something the US had concocted to deepen the paranoia in Tehran, or was there something to this rumor? What IRGC reps where said to have attended the meeting? That list would start with the names the old men already don’t trust, and that lack of trust would be built on who they think has been too cozy with Moscow. The bottom line is, this story made a bad situation for the Mullahs even worse. If it was a brilliant piece of Information Warfare on the US’s part, along with a few others, then proving the rumors false would become the top priority. Why did the US state the meeting didn’t take place, because that is exactly what the leadership in Tehran would expect DC to do. You see, by denying the story, the US actually made the impact more potent.

Who was there:

If Tehran believes this meeting took place, then how did it happen and who was in on it? The US? Yep. The Israelis? Yep. The Russians? Yep. The Iraqis? Yep, and that one poses a real problem for Iraq. If this meeting took place and it did so in Iraq, the Mullahs are going to want to extract a pound of flesh. In their eyes, the own Iraq and it’s leadership. To think they may be part of a Coup plot against Iran’s leaders, well, that just makes the paranoia level push right through the roof. Who was there? That depends on if the story is even true or not. Again, my hunch is the story is true to some level and if I’m wrong, I bet you can’t convince the Mullahs it’s not true.

Why:

Okay. Back to the question of why? What’s the best way to avoid a war between the US and Iran? A change in leadership inside Iran. Who knows this? Everyone. Who holds the strings to the actions of the Iranians? Answer that question this way; without the support from Moscow, where would Iran be? Does Russia care about the dreams of the Mullahs? No. Does Russia see Iran as a proxy fighter, although an unwilling one? Yes. Is Russia willing to offer the US a way out of a regional war, a war the Russians don’t want as well, with the exception of the price of oil? Well, that depends on what the US is willing to bring to the table? Look, I’ve been saying this for the past several years. NATO is the issue for the Russians. NATO’s creeping movement into Eastern Europe. It’s an issue that at some point in time Moscow will be willing to fight a war over, especially a proxy war somewhere else.  Last week, a meeting took place in Israel between the Russians, the US and Israel. The topic was supposedly the future of Syria. Iran was not at the table. How did that go over in Tehran? How much more isolated can these desperate old men become? With everything that is going on with sanctions and the status of Iran’s economy, just where does the rumor of a possible coup fit in? Was the purpose to further destabilize the Mullahs? Would Moscow agree to such an event unless there was something in it for them? Hint, if this meeting did take place and the Russians were not part of the process, then that is real…….real…..real bad news! 

The Mullahs have bad days stacked on top of bad days and there is no end in sight. They don’t trust the Russians and yet, that is the only game they have going right now. China you might say? Not yet….not yet. This is interesting stuff and it’s important stuff to keep track of. The Royal Navy’s slap in the face of the Mullahs yesterday is just another event that pushes the paranoia meter higher. I will leave you with one last thought. If you need to see how bad this story may have made things in Tehran, keep an eye out for the next big, Iranian driven event. As for the Grandson, I wouldn’t be starting any cars anytime soon.

HMS MONTROS AND THE GAME OF BRINKSMANSHIP 

   A little of two weeks ago, the US lost an important game of "Brinksmanship" with the old men in Tehran. Today, the UK decided to play this game with the old men and Tehran lost....for now. Did the events that took place with the US embolden the leadership in Tehran? Yes. Is the leadership in Tehran desperate enough to try the game of brinksmanship again? I think they answer that question today. So, what happened? What changed that made this latest round of a highly dangerous game take place? 

Saving Face:

   The events between the US and Tehran a few weeks ago were disastrous for the US's perception management goals for the Middle East. Did President Trump's decision to call off the strikes avoid a much larger event? Yes, and so, identifying that episode as disastrous is a very subjective topic. The old men in Tehran created an environment that allowed them to save face, at least temporarily. The US accepted the concept of, " we can wait....for now". When the dust settled, the old men in Tehran had their temporary victory, a victory everyone of their military commanders knew full well would be short-lived.   

   As I and others predicted, it didn't take long for the next event to take place. The seizure of the tanker moving Iranian oil to Syria set in motion what I would hope would be a deliberate plan on the US's part. Push the old men in Tehran. Take them off their gloating soapbox and hand them an event, without gunfire, that would force them to either take action or take a loss on round two of brinksmanship. Secondly, force them to consider taking action against someone other than the US, thus allowing the US to take the high ground. Well, it worked, but don't start waving the checkered flag too soon. When the HMS Montros turned her guns, automatic guns with computerized, target recognition, on the five smaller Iranian attack boats, the British Navy was not bluffing. A decision was made and that decision was made either in Tehran on by an Iranian commander. The five small craft turned away. Short answer....... SMACK! that was the sound of the UK Royal Navy slapping the old men in Tehran across the face. Great, right? That's the way to do it, right? 

What Alternatives:

   Before the US and the UK take a victory lap, let me remind you, as the IC is reminding the White House, just how desperate the government in Tehran truly is. A little two weeks ago, Tehran seemed to be ready for a dramatic event with the US. The US became aware of this and decided to disengage. It was right then and there, the plan that we witnessed take place today most likely began its execution. This time, the tables were turned and the old men in Tehran backed down. What alternative did they have? with the guns and other weapons of the Montros pointing them in the face, what alternative did they have? Here is the hint and it's a hint you need to pay close attention to. right after the US was made to look as if they had backed down, an alternative course of action was put into play. Think about it. Does anyone think for a second the same thing is not taking place in Tehran as I write this hastily thought out blog post?  Yes, round two, actually round four if you figure in the other six tankers that were attacked, is over. Here is what you can absolutely count on. There is going to be around three and perhaps several more. A little perception loss in DC is one thing, a perception loss in Tehran, stacked on top of everything else that is going wrong in the country, well, that's a different story.  Here is my final comment. The next event, whatever it may be, will not be too far in the future. I may have to rush this blog post just to beat what happens! 

SNAPSHOT

Yesterday, I put together a podcast, something I'm still really new at, based on a process I've been doing here on my blog for several years. For those of you who have followed me, you know from time to time, I've put together a process I call, "SNAPSHOT". It's my way of taking a quick, strategic look at global issues and providing a down and dirty opinion of why they are important and what to look for. I will be the first to tell you, the podcast route is.......well....it's just easier. Never fear, I will replicate to the best of my ability.

IRAN:

   Where are we on Iran? Enrichment? Is that the issue at the moment?  Is the five percent issue truly noteworthy? Well, that depends on who you are asking. In Israel, the answer is a resounding yes. In Europe and in Moscow, the answer would be no. In the US? Honestly, I really don't know. Yes, we have heard the words, "That would be a big mistake", but what does that mean? what does it mean in Moscow? What does it mean in Isreal? Who cares what it means in the EU. China? we will get to that but on a different topic. 

   One comment I made on my podcast is a statement I've been making on my blog site for the past several years. The Iranian and North Korea weapon's programs are joined at the hip. What does that mean? Short answer, the Mullahs already have a nuclear weapon system. The problem is, it resides in North Korea. Yes, the program was and is a joint venture and those who don't want to admit it still now the truth. What's missing? the fuel, that's what's missing. Now, go back to the enrichment issue. How important is that topic? But wait. there is a huge blocking force to this threat. The functional weapons may be in North Korea but does anyone believe that nonfueled weapon could make it from North Korea to Iran? " Just fuel it there and don't worry about it". If that is what you were thinking, then here is another bit of reality. Nuclear fuel has a fingerprint. If a "joint" bomb is ever going to be used, North Korea would have to be sure the fingerprint of the bomb, the fuel, is not traced to North Korea. That fuel will have to come from Iran. So, again, how important is the enrichment issue? I think we have our answer. 

   Last but you can rest assured not least, does it matter what the EU or Moscow thinks about the enrichment issue? Not to Israel. The Mullahs are desperate and growing more so day by day thanks to the crippling sanctions from the US. Will they push the 2015 violations to the point that Israel will respond? At the rate it's going, do the Mullahs have any offramp anywhere in sight? No. Do the people of Iran? Let's pray they do. In the end, Israel will do what it needs to do to survive the Iranian threat. For the Mullahs, conflict may be the only choice. This topic was first on my list for a reason. 

THE RUSSIAN SUB:

   This story is not only mysterious to me, but it's also somewhat frightening. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure why I placed the Iranian issue above this topic. A Russian "Special Operations" sub said to be on a mapping mission in Russian waters has a fire. Unusual? Not for Russian subs. Unusual as to the makeup of the crew and the quick disclaimer about the location and purpose of the mission? Yes. Unusual the White House had an emergency meeting at nearly the same time as the fire? Only if the US needed to have its story straight. Was the US in the "area"? Seems like it. why else would such a quick meeting be called, if......if....that is the reason the meeting was held. Did something take place that had the potential to create a crisis between the two nations? It's interesting and perhaps even a clue that a Russian military Commander made mention of how the brave actions of those who died saved the world from a global event? Not the exact wording here, but the point is made. a point that was quickly denied by other senior Russian military members. Folks. Something took place here and it was not just a simple fire onboard a Russian Sec Ops sub in Russian waters. Here the last thing we do know. The issue has "officially" gone away. I want to stress the word, "officially".

HONG KONG:

   Weeks of protest, protest like we have not witnessed in Hong Kong for years. Protest Beijing places the blame squarely on the US and most likely the UK.  Are they correct in their assumption? maybe, but the idea of DC being that proactive at a time when the US political leadership is a ship lost at sea, I wouldn't put too much stock in Beijing's theory. Could NGOs, ones that have ties to both governments, be stoking the flames of discontent in Hong Kong's youth? Perhaps. But, ask yourself this question. What's in it for them? What's in it for the nations that may support the NGO activities? Here is an even better question. Are you convinced it would be the US or the UK behind such an event? Are there "others" who might wish to see pressure applied to China?  Yes, yes there is and some even call them, "Allie". The Bear still secretly fears the Dragon. Here is the problem. Beijing is most likely stuck on the US / UK scenario. China knows it can no longer have Tiananmen Square events. The days of running people over with tanks are over, at least we think they so.

   Here is my bet. Beijing believes the events in Hong Kong are related to the US's pressure on two fronts. 1. The trade talks. " Work with us or watch what type of unconventional problems we can create for you". 2. The US strategic plan for limiting China's growing influence in the world. Does the US see China as a player in the events in Venezuela? yes. Does the US see China working to disrupt the US's relationships with the rest of the Americas? yes. Does Beijing see what is taking place in Hong Kong as retaliation for such events? It's very possible. Is China frustrated with this issue? You bet they are. Will it lead to them turning up the heat somewhere else? I think you can always bank on the deep thinking Chinese to find alternative reactions. 

MEXICO:

   This one is the most simple one on the list if for any other reason than the fact I have spoken to the issue of Mexico's status multiple times in the past few weeks. Having said that, here is the twist I need to add. On my podcast, I touched on the issue of the Mexican Federal Police protesting against the government of AMLO. It seems the transformation process for the federal police into the new National Gaurd is not well accepted. As if this was not bad enough for the progressive, pacifist revolutionary AMLO, his comment about disbanding the Mexican military is very likely having impacts we are not even witnessing...............yet! AMLO is driving Mexico into uncharted waters, waters they have not witnessed since the last revolution. How does this impact the growing crisis in the US, illegal migration? Let me restate what I have said over an over again. If the US thinks it has a migration crisis now, just wait until Mexico falls into the same pit as Venezuela? Can that happen? Can Mexico turn into another Venezuela or Albania? Those that say it can't are the same ones who try to explain what changed before they were given the opportunity to not sound so stupid.  AMLO is a chapter in Mexican history that is being written with each passing day. Where that history takes that fragile nation is anyone's guess.

ANTIFA:

   I will end with this topic and I have two concerns. 1. The movement is a dangerous indication of political correctness gone insane in the US. 2. The enemies of the US have to look at this movement as a potential weapon with the endstate of further, and I stress, further destabilizing the nation. When basement dwellers dress up as some version of a Ninja geek and open assault people on the streets of the US,  all the while as law enforcement looks on, then we can only assume the US society is heading into turbulent waters.

   Look. The world has seen another group just like this. They were called, " Sturmabteilungs". Brown Shirts. They roamed the streets of Germany in the 20s and 30s and terrorized anyone who didn't go along with their way of thinking and they did so all in the name of "justice". They had the backing of one political party, even when that party pretended they didn't support their more egregious actions. Sound familiar and please don't answer with, "well, the same can be said of the KKK". I don't respond to childish comments.

   It is time. It is time for the US Department of Justice and the White House to call these thugs what they are, Domestic Terrorist. Don't just call them that. Officially identify them as such and bring the full force of the legal system down on them. I will end with a reminder of my first concern. The enemies of the US are always looking for cracks in the armor. follow the money. look who is funding these groups, Geroge Soros and others and hit them where it hurts. Make bank accounts disappear with the use of a keyboard and then sit back and simply say, " I wonder how that happened"? This is a dangerous movement in the US and it's one the US's enemies will not overlook.


There you have it. My most recent version of my " Snapshot" concept. A little different than the version on my podcast, but given my blog site has a much larger, international audience, I attempted to look at issues that impact us on a global scale. are there others? yes. Are there some that are more important? That's a matter of perception. Will I address some of those others issues not covered here today? You bet I will. If you are not in the US, please take the time to listen to my podcast. I would love to have your feedback on how I attempt to keep things really....... really simple. If you are in the US, listen as well. I don't mean to exclude you, but I am trying to build my audience abroad.

www.messy.fm/podcast/c2a851a0-a12a-11e9-8c51-1b7a3eeb3f1f

MEXICO’S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR DISBANDING THE MILITARY

                On July 1^st, I read a statement by Mr. AMLO that took me by surprise and that says a great deal, given I truly understood him to be a full-fledged Revolutionary. AMLO would like to disband the Mexican military and simply rely on the people to defend the nation. “What”? That was my first reaction. After I pondered this bazar statement for a few minutes, I had two choices, one, do a quick podcast on what was going on and why, or, I could post a blog entry. I have to tell you; the podcast route is faster and easier. No wonder people have gravitated to that form of communications. Yet, I had a problem, I had jumped on this topic so quickly, I hadn’t given myself time to fully analyze the issue. Truth be known, it took me a few days to finally come to some of the conclusions I will address in this post. So, podcast, are a great way to get the word out quickly, but in-depth analysis just comes easier for me on a keyboard.

Why?

Why would AMLO calls for such a drastic measure? That was the first real issue I found myself stuck on. Is he worried about the military? As a true passivist, does the concept of a military simply seem unnecessary? As one of the people who has warned he is taking Mexico down the road of Venezuela, how could I compare him to Hugo Chavez given Hugo was a military man all the way? As a Mexican version of a Teletubby, perhaps the idea of disbanding the military just made sense to him? But wait a minute. The initial reports of the actions being taken by his new “ National Guard” were anything but Teletubby like. Rumors of the NG going door to door is hardly the actions of a Passivist led government. As you can probably tell by now, I was having trouble with what AMLO seemed to be working towards, then another thought came into my head. Perhaps he was worried about the loyalty? It was an issue that haunted Hugo Chavez for years. Was that it? Was that his issue? Was he or should I say, is he worried about the loyalty of the military, mainly SEDENA? The formation of his new National Guard was based upon most of the force and funding coming out of SEDENA’s hide? Perhaps he and or his staff anticipated “trouble” with the military? Maybe he believes the best way to head off future tension is to do away with the organization that might oppose him? In the end, my opinion became, he was either a true Teletubby or he was a man who was planning a drastic change in Mexico’s future. A change so drastic, the military may not go along with it.

 The Speech and Perceptions:

Once I found myself a little more comfortable on the question of “ Why”, I began to rethink what I had stated in my podcast. The issue remained the same. How would the members of the Mexican Military react to such a statement from their leader? Even if he openly stated he didn’t believe he could make the disbandment event take place, what was the attitude towards someone who would even contemplate such a thing? I kicked this question around for a day or so and then, I began to hear reports of the Mexican Federal Police demonstrating against the actions of AMLO. As a reminder, the other agency that would be drawn from in order to form the new Mexican National Guard was the Federal Police. Twitter post gave me my first clue and most of them were coming from Mexican journalist covering the police protesting at their headquarters. Members were resisting the call to join the NG. Issues such as seniority and benefits seemed to be the sticking point, but in the end, the story was one that had many in Mexico talking. The federal police were upset with their President and the dissatisfaction was growing. Again, as I had stated in the podcast, if the federal police were resisting, then what was the climate inside the military? More importantly, what did the people of Mexico think? Did they support such a radical idea as the disbanding of their military, a military they had placed so much pride in for decades? Had opinions of the military suffered over the past decade as day to day law enforcement had been replaced by the military? Stories of military misconduct had been around for the past ten years and those stories had a great deal of validity. Would the people of Mexico actually support their President’s vision? Had AMLO tested the waters of public opinion before he made his statement? This issue was much harder for me to contemplate and it was a topic I had not covered in the podcast. Clearly, the federal police were not happy with the changes taking place, but adding something as radical as disbanding the military, what impact was that going to have on the public?

 What to look for:

I ended my podcast the other day with the comment I would be watching the developments in Mexico and how this statement about the military might impact perceptions and that is exactly what I’ve been doing. More importantly, I will continue to go back to a point I made in the podcast. What does this all mean to the US? How does this potentially impact the issue of mass illegal migration to the US border?

Can we expect to see members of the military protesting their reassignment into the National Guard? Well, it’s a valid topic to look for.  Post on social media platforms such as Twitter are a true indicator and that is where some of us will be paying close attention. Resistance to AMLO’s visions will dictate the overall health of the nation, that and the quarterly numbers for PEMEX. By the way, those numbers don’t look good and the ability to pay for all of AMLO’s visionary ideas is going to become a real issue soon. He can only attack the integrity of old federal agencies for so long before the people grow tired of him riding around on his White Horse proclaiming to be the people’s champion. Fact. The media is already after him at his daily……yes….daily press conferences.

One final key indicator to really pay attention to. The Budget! If AMLO truly wishes to limit his militaries ability to challenge him, he will go after the budget. Reallocating funds for better utilization under the National Guard will most likely be the way the plan is placed in front of the public. Let the leadership of the military see this concept come to reality and then we may witness even greater troubles inside Mexico. Yep folks, the old adage holds true. “ Follow the money”.