Wednesday, September 25, 2013

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF INACTION????
















Well, it's been rather obvious I've been away from my opinion postings for over two weeks now, but I'm happy to say I'm back and I've picked a great topic to come back to!

I'm not going to waste your time or my time talking about the events leading up to the drive for Western intervention in Syria.

My last post addressed my most simplistic point, and if you notice, I posted it before the Tsar made his move on the whole issue.

The short answer is this... The Tsar scores a victory, but what will be his reward?

Ok, back to what I'm convinced is now a far more important topic.

The news today, outside the US, on the topic of Syria was more than fascinating and in fact, what was announced today was not only a long time in the making, but it was also completely predictable by those who know the region.

If you look at some of my older postings on events in Syria you can find time and time again where I spoke to the issue of so called, Leadership in exile members and the real fighting force in Syria... the Rebels.

As a reminder, the age old saying has not changed; "One man's freedom fighter is another man's revolutionary/ Terrorist.

Let's cut to the chase.

Many of us have known for over a year now the fighters in Syria were never going to march to the drum of the social elitist living in high-rise condominiums overlooking the streets of capital of Turkey!

Again, as a important reminder, just because you eat dinner and drink fine wine with Western Political power brokers, that doesn't equate into victory on the true battlefields of Syria.

For months, the storyline was all about how the radial fighting groups, most of them fundamentalist, were in a real power struggle with each other and how the Assad regime was going to be able to take advantage of this infighting.

Most of those who came up with this theory were more worried about being paid to say it or write it then they were figuring out if it was actually true!

It was and remains a "picture" the so called leaders, the ones living in the condos taking a bath every night, continues to attempt to sell to the rest of the world.

Are the fighting groups in Syria going to hold hands now and fight as one synchronized organization?

Of course not, but what they are going to do is make it known the appeasement approach taken by the false leaders of the Syrian revolution,  the fine wine club, will not have a say so in what takes place on the ground, door to door in Syria.

If you accept this announcement today, you need to ask yourself, what happened?

What changed?

What event made the "middle of the road" FSA groups jump ship?

Well, do you think they may have lost hope when the great Western assault on Assad and Hezbollah didn't take place?

Do you  think that could have been the proverbial, "straw that broke the Camel's back"?  

What pushed them off the center of the fence, if they were ever really there?

Is this announcement today a byproduct of the failed Western intervention?

Most likely yes!

Now, ask yourself one last question.

Who does this benefit?

Who fills the vacuum?

Who can bee seen as the voice of "reason"... a voice that takes the opponents into the back room and puts a bullet in the back of their heads?

Ah yes.... the TSAR!!!!

As soon as this breakaway announcement was given, perhaps even before, the GCC was hard at work figuring out what needs to be done.

If you live in Iraq or the Hezbollah side of Lebanon....keep your head down...

The GCC knows how to make pull the right strings.




Tuesday, September 10, 2013

SYRIA'S WMD "PLAN".. WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE CIVIL WAR?




I'm not going to get into the politics of the incredibly confusing events that have taken place over  the past twenty-four hours, but instead, I will look at what this all might mean to the war in Syria.

If anyone forgot, the country of Syria is still knee deep in a civil war!

Over the past two or three weeks, it seams the daily headlines from the fighting have taken a backseat to the events of the 21st of August.

Needless to say, the forces in support of Assad have been hard at work fortifying their assets in anticipation of the once pending Western strike; a "Western" strike that was to be supported by the GCC if you believe what you read; oh ya... what is the definition of " supported"?

But, with the Assad Team digging in as deep as they can and dispersing as much as possible, it's probably a safe bet the Battle Plans for Aleppo were put on hold, if not disassembled. 

Well, if the pending doom of a Western strike is now less than probable, what does that mean to the Rebels/ Sunni fighters?

Can the Sunni fighters take advantage of the Assad Team while they are still deciding to uncover and regroup everything they hid?

Will the Assad Team start to reassemble the Aleppo Assault Package?

If so, will the Rebels wait?

Ok, here is my point.

When the lack of unified, coordinated "plan" takes hold, the end result is complete confusion on all parts.

What should the Sunni groups do right now?

What does Assad's Team dare to reassemble?

What about the thousands of Hezbollah fighters that mobilized over the past two weeks?

Just how confused are both sides?

Probably just as confused as those who are convinced they need to do something about Syria!!!!!

The Coalition of the Uncoordinated is not linked with the Coalition of the Confused or the Coalition of the Confused!

The only one that seems to have a "plan" is..... yep.... you guessed it.... the Tsar!

So what happens if the long drawn out game of "where are the WMDs" repeats itself?

Does anyone remember how long this game took in Iraq???? About 10 years!

Where did the WMDs move to?

Who has them and how long does it take to even form a team to look for them?

Oh ya, a group of teams that has to look for all the dispersed sights in the middle of a Civil War... We didn't even have to do that in Iraq.

"Here... Here is my 100 tons of weapons.......What... I don't have 1000 tons.. You just want to bomb me"!!!

It seems like this story has been played out before!!!!!



Sunday, September 8, 2013

IRAN'S PERCEPTIONS... THAT'S THE REAL DANGER!



Once again the question floats to the surface and this time around more and more people are paying attention?

Do the Persians truly believe this is only about Assad's use of chemical weapons?

Again this morning, many of the Western political members are making reference to how this pending strike on Syria, will "send a message" to Iran.

What is that message?

How do the Persians "perceive" that message?

If the West does a good job of convincing the Iranians a "message" is coming soon, then what return "message" is drafted from Iran?

As the opponents of a Iranian nuclear weapons program have sat and pondered for years how to deal with such a complex question, several options have been placed on the table.

If you remember a few years ago when the West was attempting to pull Asssad into the "Western Camp" and away from the Persians.....well... the process didn't go so well!

I'm afraid the West misunderstood whose camp Syria was really in or they forgot the Tsar gets a vote!

So, lets say the Persians sit back in their master training room and come to the conclusion the West cannot afford a regional war to neutralize Iran's program.

Perhaps what the Persians came to the conclusion , based upon   the failed love affair with Assad, the real Western plan was to pull apart the proxy fighters and geographic support bases such as Lebanon and Syria, thus leaving Iran incapable of projecting military actions to a level they required?

Maybe, just maybe the Persians have come to the conclusion the Western Master Plan is the Death of a Thousand Cuts?

Well, after all the talk by Western political members in the past two weeks, I'm not sure how Iran could not come to this conclusion.

So, is this whole push to attack Syria really about the neutralization of Iran?

I'm not sold on that theory, not just yet.... but I must admit, it's almost impossible to believe the Persians don't see it that way.

Pushing Iran into a corner and saying to them, "watch this".... is that what some political leaders truly believe is a sound concept?

Get the Western Generals away from their Bosses and close the door!!!

Don't ask them if this is what their leadership is up to, for they will not break their oaths.

Instead, ask them if shoving the Persians into a corner, a corner the Tsar owns, and forcing them to watch their last proxy state be taken apart and left to the radical Sunni Rebels.....well... I think you know where I am going.

If there is anything about this so called Syrian Crisis that confuses me, worries me, it's the concept of sending a message to a powerful military controlled by radical leadership and at the same time turning to your own population and saying, "don't worry"..... it's very limited"!!!!!

Where are we going?

We are about to find out!




Wednesday, September 4, 2013

IS A POLITICAL PLAN FOR SYRIA IN THE WORKS.. ASSAD SOLD OUT BY HIS MASTERS?



I am probably tealeaf reading here, but I've seen a interesting trend in the past few days that is now worthy of addressing.

If you read the linked articles, you just might find a glimpse of what I'm about to say.

Once again, let's play the "what if game".

What if General Habib's defection to Turkey was no accident?

What if the meeting between his friend, Prince Bandar approached the Russians was about an alternative Syrian government plan based upon someone the Russians and the West could live with?

What if Assad caught wind of this potential deal between the Tsar and the GCC / Arabs and panicked..... panicked so much that he decided to use weapons he knew would change the dynamics of the entire region?

The final linked attached is my post just a few days after the 21st of August event; a post where I asked the question that everyone is still struggling to answer.... Why... Why did the weapons get used now?

Would my "what if theory" explain an alleged signal intelligence capture that reportedly shows Hezbollah reporting to Iran what Assad had done?

Would it explain the Tsar stating he might support a UN vote on the Syrian issue?

My gut tells me there is something to this whole chain of events and I cannot be the only one who is picking up on it.

Now, let's us play the "Assumption game"!

If we assume there is some move afoot to undermine Assad, something I said two years ago would eventually happen with the Tsar and the Persians, will it work?

Could it lead to the type of "Diplomatic Resolve" that everyone keeps calling for?

Have the key players found a person both sides can live with?

If so, then why the rush to attack Syria?

Good question and it's the pivot point as to why I'm somewhat reluctant to continue with the Tealeaf reading.

Ah, but there could be one factor not incorporated into the story.

Back to the "What if" game!

What if.. the concept of this "deal" doesn't have the Western players as voting members?

What if this "deal" is a "deal" between the two oil giants in the world... the CGG and the Tsar?

I just love the "what if" game... Some of us have played it for years... decades!!!!

Ok, now back to the " Assumption" game.

Let's assume I'm correct and this is exactly what is taking place.

Here is the Billion dollar question!!!

Will it work?

The answer is.... No!

If such a backroom deal, like most political dealings, is underway, there is one wildcard that cannot be overlooked.

How many factions are fighting in Syria as of today?

Can you count them?

If the Russians and the Persians and the GCC come to grips with a "nutral" party to temporarily lead Syria, how in the world do you get all the Syrian factions and Warlords, that is exactly what some of them have become, to agree?

What brings the Kurds to the table?

How do you turn off the revenge pipeline?

If you answered with GCC funds, you are smarter than the average Bear when it comes to how the whole region works.

Who pays the bills for the Radical Islamic groups?

Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the event that worries the Monarchies of the GCC the most, who has the closest ties to these proxy fighters?

Yep.. The GCC!!!

But, the GCC members are forgetting one of their oldest truisms.. just because you feed a Scorpion, that doesn't mean it will not sting you!!!

Tealeaf reading.... What ifs an the Assumption Game... all so easy to do from so far away!










    






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Monday, September 2, 2013

IRAN'S TROUBLE WITH THE SYRIAN CONFLICT:




Now, the Good Lord knows The Turkish news media, World Bulletin, has little in common with The Jerusalem Post and it's for that very reason I found the attached two news stories more than interesting.

Admittedly these two stories have a different "twist" on what took place this weekend, but the fact of the mater is, some, like me, are once again wondering about the political stability of Iran.

Everyone knows their leaders have long feared the repercussions of the Arab Spring and the suppressed youth of Iran.

A great example was the pathetic way they tried to lay claim to the Arab Spring as if the whole process was part of some grand Iranian plan.

Much like how poor old Omar Gaddafi attempted to march in the streets of his own capital protesting the "injustices"  of the Libyan government.... look what that got him?

Typically, appeasement arrives too little and too late to save tyrannical leaders.

In Iran's case, the most recent election is seen by some as a unplanned, I say unplanned given I am confident their leaders had no wish for Rouhani to actually win, attempt to "appease" the majority movement in their land......... the moderates!

So, If Rafsanjani has truly made pubic his belief Assad ordered the chemical attacks on his own people or worse yet, stood by and let the Iranian / Hezbollah Commanders in Syria gas Syrians, then we can not help but see this as a very troubling sign for the Puppet Masters in Tehran.

The fact that ILNA posted this story and then changed it, is just another sign all is not well in Iran.

So, why would this be important right now, given all that is taking place in the region?

Let me answer that question with a question.

What has been the primary logic behind holding off on attacking the Iranian nuclear program?

Yep!

The fact some truly believed and still believe Iran's real enemy is it's internal social unrest.

Is this story of Rafsanjani yet another hint of what is really keeping the Puppet Masters up at night?

My hunch is it's doing far more than just keeping them up at night.

As I have said time and time again;  Iran's current leaders cannot afford the loss of it's proxy fighters, Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad.

Just how desperate Iran may become is predominantly base upon just how concerned it's leaders become with disunity in the ranks of it's society.

Remember, the breaking point for Iran is still Hezbollah and the breaking point for Hezbollah is it's families coming under unrelenting attacks in Lebanon.

Is Assad desperate enough to once again utilize WMDs?

In my opinion, this is the wrong question.

The true issue revolves around just how desperate Iran becomes?

A vote in the US House will be the issue over the next week, but the words of a once Iranian President, a very popular one at that, well.... that is critical indictor of where the whole region is heading.




Sunday, September 1, 2013

THE CONFLICT OVER SYRIA HAS ALREADY STARTED!



As I sit here tonight fully intending to discus the issue of "pending" conflict in Syria, I couldn't help but get completely sidelined by what I consider a simply outrageous statement from the so called " Arab League".

So, the Arab League is urging Western intervention in the Syrian conflict?

I have one simple but ever so logical question for my friends of the Arab League!

How many troops are you willing to send?

What combat units are activated and prepared to launch combat operations inside of Syria?

Are you ready to initiate hostilities with the Persians if they attack the Western forces your a demanding?


I think we all know the answer to my somewhat flipped question.

Just so I can catch my breath and lower my blood pressure, let me make this as simple as possible.

Where is your "SKIN" in the game?

If you don't intend on doing so, and we all know you do not, then please sit back in your golden laced estates and figure out what sports car you are going to buy next!

It's not news that I am not a fan of the Boy's Club nicknamed the Arab League, but  I must admit they did once again manage to stir my blood with this arrogant statement.

Now, I will  gladly eat my words if I see just one picture, one you tube clip, of a Saudi F15 tail-flash flying over Syrian airspace!..

Oh and yes.. Please don't feed me that worn out statement of, "The West would prefer that we not be involved"!!! Weak..... is an understatement!

Ok, lets get back to what I really intended on talking about tonight.

For over 24hrs now, all the talk has focused on the US's decision to delay actions in Syria.

How much damage to the US's international accreditation has taken place?

What will Assad and his Masters think of this event?

How about the Tsar?

Let's drive past those issues for the moment and take a better look at 21st century warfare tenets that are being overlooked.

Often, I have spoken to the issue of the power of social media and the reality of perception being the core of good governance.

In the past 24hrs it is undeniable the perception of the person on the streets of the Middle East believe the West has lost it's will to stand up to injustice.

A few carefully placed words may appease the populace of Western nations, but the average  person in the Middle East tonight sits and wonders what the future holds?

All the talk of how this change in heart / plans, might impact the Iranian weapons program dominates the people of Israel.

 The people of Lebanon now must wonder how much longer until the next act against Hezbollah takes place with the sole intention of forcing them to return to the new battlefront......Lebanon!

Tonight, leaders on both sides of the Syrian conflict are changing plans based upon "Perceptions" and the public information campaign is in full swing.

Just look at the words of the Iranian government in the past 24hrs and stack the scripted press announcements from Assad's government on top.

Yes, the conflict in Syria for the West has been underway for sometime now, but it seems some are just now beginning to understand what that means.

Conflict / War is the end state of diplomatic failure!

War is not simply the act of kinetic weapons.

Who is wining the "War  / Conflict" as of today?