GAZA TUNNELS!!!! THE STORY GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING!!

Several new stories out of the Middle East were of interest today, but the issue of the tunnels from Egypt into Gaza, in my opinion, is the real news story.

As I talked about last week, Egyptian support toward the tunnel operations controlled by Hamas has become more than just an interesting exploit.

Once we get past the announcement by the Egyptian government to "destroy", who knows what that really means, the tunnels leading in the Gaza from Egypt, the real question becomes why?

Why, was the question when we spoke of this topic last week; why did Egypt apparently change his mind toward supporting some of the Hamas operations into Gaza?

The theory that two-way flow of weapons leading to the hostile actions in the Sinai, in my opinion, really doesn't hold water.

Weapons going into the Sinai into the hands of Islamic fundamentalist organizations that oppose even the current government Egypt are flowing from Africa not backwards back out of Gaza.

The concept that a chosen few of Hamas tunnel controllers were being targeted by the Egyptian government had some validity.

But, with Egyptian announcement of the pending destruction of all the tunnels, again I doubt that will really happen, it's become apparent whatever the issue was aggravating Egyptians has gotten worse.

But, let's assume for a minute the Egyptians really do begin a campaign of destroying the tunnels in Gaza.

What does this mean Hamas and what does it mean to the people of Gaza?

Logistically it will quickly become a nightmare for the people of Gaza unless of course the Egyptians open the above ground roadways.

It doesn't seem possible the Egyptian government would knowingly punish the population of the Gaza Strip by limiting such support operations is the tunnels provide regardless of the weapons movement, unless of course Egyptians intended to subsidize commerce in another manner.

One thing is for sure, Hamas leaders the control tunnel operations in the Gaza was simply be furious with this announcement from the Egyptian government.

So, what's the message here Western Mark

Is Mr. Morsi sending a message to Hamas over his aggravation with the lack of effort towards  the unification process with Fatah?

Is Mr. Morsi punishing Hamas?

Does this imply that Mr. Morsi holds Mr. Abbas and higher standing?

There's an old saying United States from the state of Missouri; "I'm from the show me state"!

When I see the Egyptian military actively destroying the tunnels leading in the Gaza, all of them not just selected ones that belonged Hamas members were "bucking the system", that I will truly believe that Egypt\Mr.Morsi is making life painful for Hamas.

Now, before we begin to believe such actions out of the Egyptian government, we need to consider the actions of the Egyptian military and their lack of "guidance" from Mr. Morsi.

Simply put, who sinned the message here Egyptian government with Egyptian military?

If the destruction really does begin to take place, but my bet is on the Egyptian military.

If the destruction is limited or somehow negotiated, in my opinion would be Mr.Morsi is once again playing games in the world of international politics.

If this is true, I'm not sure Mr. Morsi as the time and the energy to be so involved with Hamas movement given the instability inside of his own country.

Where the Egyptians up to?

Is it Mr. Morsi or is it Egyptian military?

Let's just watch for a few days and make up our mind then expiration point

  http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201322619219970812.html

SO HOW DID JARADAT REALLY DIE AND DOES IT REALLY MATTER?

Arafat Jaradat died in Israeli custody that is an undeniable fact, but how he died, is where the truth may fall victim to convenience.

It's no mystery that Hamas and Fatah continue to struggle for the leadership position in the Palestinian statehood issue.

Waiting for an event such as the tragic death of this young man is something that Hamas is notoriously famous for taking advantage of.

Developing a scenario where Abbas once again appears to be incapable of protecting the Palestinian movement is the desire of Hamas.

As is often said in the world of politics, "never failed to take advantage of a good disaster"!

Is Hamas out to create open hostilities with the Israeli government?

Is this truly Hamas is attempted a third intifada?

Is a third intifada a Hamas tool of Abbas's downfall?

Are the Israelis doing whatever it takes to prevent the potential of a third intifada?

Is Hamas or Fatah capable of controlling the youthful violence of the Palestinians?

If the fears that Abbas could lose control, is there also a fear that even Hamas can gain control?

What is the purpose of trying to structure these protest other than the continuous one-upsmanship between Hamas and Fatah?

A few months ago, Mr Morsi attempted to take advantage of the youthful protest and he quickly found out how little control he truly had over the Egyptian people.

If Hamas and Fatah are not careful, they can learn the same lesson that the Egyptian leader did.

So, the underlying question seems to be is this event going to lead to a third intifada?

Fortunately, the answer to that question lies more with the Israeli leadership that it does the Palestinians.

Yes, this young man died in Israeli custody, but his death seems to be nothing more than a tool in the ongoing power struggle within the Palestinian movement; how pathetic!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013224184142611721.html

A DISTURBANCE IN THE "FORCE"????

If Yoda was in charge of negotiations with the SNC, I think his commentary would have been "a disturbance in the force I feel"!

There are probably several academic level ways of discussing what this "pullout" from the pending negotiations is based upon, but the fact that it's Friday night and I'm not an academic, let's keep this real simple and even better short!

It's been fairly obvious for some time now that the so-called leaders in exile have very little in common with those individuals are actually fighting the battles street to street house to house in the major cities of Syria.

I find it very likely that these so-called leaders are beginning to understand the damage that will be done to their reputation and to their movement if it becomes more than obvious the fighters/rebels in Syria are not marching to the drum of a group of people drinking tea and sleeping comfortably air-conditioned buildings outside of Syria.

Is my belief the SNC or at least key members of it have decided they must begin to show some resistance to open allegiance to the "West"!

The issue of the casualties of Aleppo is a façade the SNC has decided to draw a line on.

If the SNC was "outraged" with the rest of world's response to the deaths and Aleppo, then this outrage should taken place a year and a half ago.

That's not the issue.

It is very possible many key members of the SNC are beginning to realize their only future and having anything to say in the new government of Syria will be based upon your acceptance and support of the true rebels fighting for serious freedom.

Long story short, the SNC's beginning to change sides based upon the simple act of survival.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201322218202590207.html

WHAT IS HEZBOLLAH UP TO AND WHY?

As I continued to read the stories today about Hezbollah's actions in these villages along the Lebanese Syrian border, and became more and more concerned for what could really be taking place here.

As the attached article states, the territory in question is tactically and strategically and emotionally important Hezbollah.

Having said that, could there be more to the events are unfolding on Lebanese border?

To those that follow events in the region, let me pose a question.

What if............ what if Syria was attempting to open "second front" for the rebels to contend with?

Is there a possibility that the Syrian government and Iran are becoming desperate enough that the utilization of Hezbollah forces in the open has become a viable option?

I can assure you that Hezbollah  is a far more capable fighting force than the depleted and emotionally exhausted units of the Syrian military.

This week has seen the confirmation of far more advanced weapons going into the hands of the rebels and the impact of these weapons is being felt on a daily basis throughout Syria.

Some of last weeks and this weeks fighting in Damascus has resulted in the Syrian government beginning to truly realize that Damascus itself could fall or at best be divided in two.

In the tactics of conflict, is an absolute truth that enemy pulled into separate directions is far less capable than enemy allowed to concentrate on one objective.

Now, introducing Hezbollah forces in to this conflict without the world opinion blaming the Syrian government or  Hezbollah  leadership is a tricky procedure.

Realizing the aggressive nature of some of the more fanatical rebel organizations provides or potentially provides Syrian government with the "bait" that it needs for this operation.

Allowing the Shia Hezbollah forces to be seen simply defending defenseless Shia villagers from the fanatical rebels is obviously the picture the Syrian government would like to paint.

Once the reason for the conflict is established, the Hezbollah forces could dramatically change the battlefield environment for the rebel forces and this could be accomplished without an accusation of Iranian involvement.

Simply put, Hezbollah could be seen as the "protector" of Shia Lebanese citizens living on the border of Syria.

Everyone fully understands that this conflict could easily spiral out of control and spread even into Lebanon itself.

If the rebel forces are drawn into a sustaining conflict with well-organized, well-equipped and extremely capable Hezbollah units, then how effective with those same rebel units be in the siege of Damascus?

Am I grasping at straws here; perhaps!

As catastrophic is this concept might become, in the eyes of some opportunity could be knocking.

A Hezbollah force drawn into sustaining conflict with an ever more powerful rebels force with both sides being wrapped in sectarian conflict is an event that simply must deplete Hezbollah's capabilities to some degree.

But once again, the danger of such a plan on Iran and serious part is the territory where this conflict would take place.

If it is not the intention of Iran to draw Israel and to the conflict, than any operational actions by Hezbollah forces must be confined to area does not draw the anger of the IDF.

Okay, this theory may be a stretch, but the idea that this Sunni rebels are openly threatening to attack the Shia Hezbollah cannot be overlooked.

We also cannot ignore the reality that Hezbollah would never engage in such activities without guidance and even permission from the Iranians.

So, as you see, this is far more complex than a few villages along the Syrian Lebanese border.

Let's see what transpires in the next few days.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hezbollah-shiites-syria.html

IRAN CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ENVELOPE!!!!

So, once again of IAEA reports little to no progress in dealing with the Iranian government and on top of this Iran announces the installment of new and improved centrifuges.

Now I ask you, are these the actions of the nation that is truly trying to reconcile its differences with the rest of the world on its so-called peaceful nuclear development?

I think we all know the answer to that question to include the Iranian leadership.

Last I spoke of a tactic called "kicking the can down the road".

It somewhat of a cheap shot to criticize those nations trying to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons development of committing this act of kicking the can down the road, but sometimes it takes criticism to make leaders realize their current concepts are simply not working expiration point

The pending 5+1, whatever they call themselves now, meeting taking place at the end of February has little or no chance of producing anything but yet another version of kicking the can down the road.

There's only one problem with this can concept.

Just because one group the size kicking the can is somewhat of a acceptable form policy, that does not mean the nation that feels most threatened by the rainy and nuclear program and their foot to the can process!

The Israelis are much closer using your foot in another old-fashioned way that I simply won't comment on right now.

I've said it before and I will say it again, the Iranian leadership simply does not believe rest of the world is willing instigate an open conflict, at least not just yet.

If Iran truly believed that they were close to being attacked over there program, we would see physical indications inside their country that simply cannot be masked.

So, after this next round of talking and can kicking the question will become what is next?

Has anything really changed that would lead gave us to believe that the next round of   kick the can is not going to be the outcome?

As you read the attached article, pay close attention to the timeline the Iranians are achieving with these new machines and then ask yourself what was it that Netanyahu stated at the United Nations last year?

Remember the drawing of the fuse on the bomb!

Remember that the Pres. United States is traveling to Israel in the next few weeks.

But most of all, remember the simple fact that the Israelis will go alone if they must!

Time is not on the Iranian side!

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/diplomats-iran-starts-upgrade-nuclear-site

HEZBOLLAH.. THE FORCE THAT MUST BE DEALT WITH!!

First off, the concept that the EU nations are concerned over labeling has balls a terrorist organization for the sake of Lebanon borderlines on the ridiculous expiration point

I guess the theory that if the EU limits the funding for Hezbollah, then Hezbollah will make "trouble" for Lebanon and perhaps others!

Really?

This is the strategic thinking of nation states and the European Union?

So, in order to keep the bully happy, give him your lunch money and he will pick on anyone in the cafeteria.

The concept didn't work when we were in school and it won't work with Hezbollah!

If this is going to be the opinion, the official opinion, of the European Union than I would imagine all possibilities of the special tribunal on Lebanon\STL\coming to any true resolution is a pipe dream.

If we follow the European Union's thought process, then convicting Hezbollah members in the STL trials might once again "lead to the destabilization of Lebanon"!

Hezbollah is exactly what we all know it to be.

It is has been and will remain a proxy weapon of the Iranian government.

It is the specialized operations unit of the Shia movement that is exactly how the Sunnis and the rest of the world see them.

Backing up on Hezbollah simply will not work and I am very confident that the EU has heard this time and time again already.

As I commented on yesterday, increasing operations in plain view of the Hezbollah forces in Syria is a clear indication of how the organization intends to operate with the obvious impunity.

With the pending elections in Lebanon and Iran it appears most of the world is utterly unwilling to deal with the actions of the Iranian puppet known as Hezbollah.

Before the Hezbollah leadership finds comfort in the reluctance of the Western world, they need to remember not all nations in the region feel the same as Europe.

If Lebanon becomes a casualty of the Syrian conflict, and to some degree it already has, then those responsible will necessarily need the ones with guns in her hands.

Reluctance he is often the father of conflict.

I'll be the first to admit finding a comprehensive way to deal with the issue of Hezbollah terrorist and their apparent grip on the Lebanese government is a daunting task to say the least.

Is without question a dangerous thing to contemplate the neutralization process against Hezbollah.

Unfortunately the theory of "kicking the can down the street" at this moment in time is probably far more dangerous.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=303847

HEZBOLLAH MORE BOLD THAN EVER INSIDE SYRIA.

Is not earth shattering news that   Hezbollah operational on Syrian land.

Is not earth shattering news  Hezbollah is trying everything its powers to prevent rebel support coming from Lebanon; given the fact Hezbollah believes they own Lebanon!

Nevertheless, the openness of this series of assaults referred to in the two attached news articles is a noteworthy change in their tactics.

If someone does not believe that has balls actions or something out of the ordinary, they need only look at the reactions of the March 14 group.

Mentioning Hezbollah's activities in the GCC nations is the March 14 groups attempt to keep the broader picture of Hezbollah  operations in focus.

Mentioning the events of Hezbollah in Bulgaria is intended to have the same effect.

But, the fact of the matter is the recent activities by Hezbollah on the Syrian/Lebanese border are truly what has March 14 and those groups that support them, mainly Sunnis, upset.

Those that wish to support the rebels based in Lebanon understand all too well the first obstacle to overcome is the Lebanese-based Hezbollah.

The fact that these Hezbollah operations were coordinated with Syrian military members not go unnoticed with the Sunnis of Lebanon.

It is simply a worn-out statement when someone talks to the issue of potential conflict inside of Lebanon based on the destabilized events in Syria.

The fact of the matter is, there's been an undeclared hostile environment inside of Lebanon for well over a year.

The Lebanese military and the ruling government have tried to the best of their ability to appear in partial when in fact everyone knows the current Lebanese government's Pro Shia and thus pro-Syria.

The oil shipment protest this week speak to the truth when it comes to the current government of Lebanon and don't believe for a single minute that the Sunnis of Lebanon or Syria under estimate the true intent of the Lebanese government.

What does seem to be changing is the openness which the current leadership in Lebanon seems to be portraying.

Again, the issue of oil being sent to Syria is far more indicative of the degrading environment inside of Lebanon and most people realize.

It was one thing for the Lebanese government could claim impartiality as they attempted to keep peace in their nation.

Is quite another to openly be supporting Syria and yet be as unrealistic enough to imagine being perceived as "impartial" expiration point

Yes, Lebanon or at least Lebanon's current government is beginning to show their true hand and this will have repercussions for all the people Lebanon.

It's more than ironic that a government that openly pursues the perception of impartiality is now become so totally bias!

I have to really wonder if the current government Lebanon truly understands the repercussions and the pending elections at their current actions may have!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Feb-19/207007-march-14-psp-slam-hezbollah-activities-in-syria.ashx#axzz2LG7lObS5

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21496735

NORTH KOREA AND IRAN... THE TOPIC COMES UP AGAIN!

Well, once again the topic of North Korea Iranian cooperation in a nuclear weapons program seems to surface in the media once again.

For anyone that has followed by opinions of actions in the Middle East, it will be more than aware of my suspicions.

Rumors upon rumors continue to unfold over the nuclear weapons test Iva North Koreans actually being conducted for the Iranian government.

The debate over the relationship between Iran and North Korea go on for an indefinite period of time, but it would not impact one simple fact.

That one simple fact is this; a weapon developed designed and assembled and North Korea would have virtually no chance of being shipped to Iran.

If we completely leave out the concept of a Western led intervention to such a shipment, we are still left with absolute reality of the Israelis never allowing such a transfer to take place matter what the cost.

Remember, is the IDF has flown combat missions in Africa to deny far less important weapons traffic movement.

If the Iranians are supporting and North Korean warhead development and even missile redevelopment, it will not leave them a functional weapon being transferred from one country to the other.

Now, it's easy to get lost in the technical guessing game of weapons development and nation state support each other in such development.

What continues to concern me is not the technical side of any possible relationship between North Korea and Iran.

As I stated before, I concern continues to be mutual "plan" that could be implemented by these two nations in support of each other in the time of a crisis!

Without running the risk of repeating myself, again, I would simply state the technical agreement is not really the issue at hand.

Concept of "mutual aid" is always been a complex issue at the international, political level.

An Iranian/North Korean mutual support agreement in time of crisis is a concept that still concerns me greatly.

These two nations continue to exemplify one of the oldest sayings nationstate conflict; "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"!

Rest of the world must avoid a classic case of not being a mother see the forest through the trees when it comes to the issue of technical support a nuclear weapons development between North Korea and Iran.

If these two nations truly have an agreement, the real question revolves around to what level of support this agreement speaks to?

To state that dealing with a North Korean conflict simultaneously with Iranian conflict would be more than challenging for the rest of the world is a dramatic understatement.

No one probably understands this better than the North Koreans and the Iranians.

So, whatever is taking place between Iran and North Korea, must be anticipated and planned for as quickly as possible.

Am I more convinced now that a simultaneous North Korean/Iranian conflict could take place sometime in the near future?

I'm not sure.

What I am sure of, is that two known enemies of the Western world are working together in both are ruled by a rational and highly dangerous leaders!

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=303499

SNAPSHOT FOR WEEK ENDING FEB 17 2013.

I am going to make a real effort to start creating a "snapshot" on Saturdays, like I used to do little over a year ago.

Having said that, let's get down to it!

Lebanon:

The discussions this week on the election law guidelines along with the movement of oil from Lebanon into Syria made up the bulk of the discussions concerning Lebanon.

As emotional and potentially dangerous as the fuel support operations conducted by Lebanon towards Assad, is actually the election law issue that has everyone truly concerned.

When will the Lebanese elections take place and under what laws will it execute?

A delay in the elections themselves would prove more than dangerous for the overall stability of Lebanon and is for that reason I am somewhat convinced the delay will not take place.

If a final disposition of election laws is not agreed upon, the concerns of Hezbollah and their supporters will most likely be the main topic of discussion in the coming week.

Simply put, Lebanon could easily become an issue pushes the forefront in the coming week, if not now!

Bahrain:

Those that follow the Middle East know all too well how involved the Iranians truly are in the social turmoil's involving the government of Bahrain.

As tense as issues may be in Bahrain, the death of a protester this week was an event that should have been avoidable for Bahrain.

The big picture for Bahrain is simple; Iran was to apply as much pressure inside of Bahrain and eventually on the GCC as possible.

Now, the fact that Iran is trying so desperately to accomplish this task is no excuse for Bahrain's mismanagement of the protest to take place there.

Bahrain is, was, and continues to be a slow burning fuse that Iran would love to see explode in the GCC desperately wants to avoid.

The counter actions of the government of Bahrain are less coordinated and less effective than a more simplistic tactic of the GCC applying counter pressure on Iran.

Simply put, it's easy for the GCC the counterstrike that it is for them to find a viable option for Bahrain.

Having said that, we can anticipate some type of "tit-for-tat" reprisal in the near future, most likely in Syria.

Syria: 

Several times this week I actually laughed out loud as I read articles dealing with the identified Syrian government in exile and how they were planning for a post Assad Syria.

With each passing day, it becomes more and more clear who really is winning the war in Syria and it is not anyone closely associated with this " recognized: / new Syrian government.

My laughter was quickly interrupted by the death of the Iranian General on Syrian ground.

Iran has openly been in support of Assad from day one, but this event and the public response it generated from key Iranian leaders was more than a signal of the increased / open / operations inside Syria.

My other comment on this event is based upon my changing viewpoint on how this event took place.

Finding such a target in the open with a PSD / Personal Security Detail/ as advanced as this General would have had, is a real indication that the theory of the Israelis taking him out may not be that farfetched.

Even if the Israelis are not responsible for his death, it is nearly impossible to convince Iranian leadership they didn't.  

As I stated a few days ago, it's an event that will lead to some level of Iranian response.

If they truly wished to cover up his existence in Syria, they would not have said the things about him that came out at his funeral.

As is always the case in international politics, the message was in the message!!!

Egypt:

This one is simple; Morsi has to question the support of the Egyptian Military now more  than ever.

His attempt at purging the General Officer ranks last year may not have produced the results he had anticipated.

It's clear the thirty years of relationships between the Egyptian military and the military of Israel / IDF / goes deeper than just a few senior Generals.

Blocking the Hamas Headquarters issue and flooding the tunnels leading into Gaza are clear indications not only to Israel, but to Morsi himself on just were the Egyptian Military stands.

The current unrest in Egypt may be keeping Morsi up at night, but I can guarantee you the fear of Egyptian Military loyalty is a far greater nightmare right now for not only Mr Morsi, but for the Muslim Brotherhood as well.

What to look for in the coming week:

The battle for Damascus is something I truly believe is being severely underestimated.

If Assad's Brother's unit is damaged beyond levels we are currently aware of, Damascus could fall like Saigon!!!!

As many have said for some time now, Assad's propensity to utilize his chemical weapons will never be more pressing then the rapid fall of central Damascus.

Could this happen this week?

I believe the rebels are much closer to taking Damascus than the common "Joe" realizes.

The other possible  big event that could unfold this coming week is Hezbollah.

The message Israel sent by striking the movement in Syria was unmistakable.

If Assad and Iran wanted to try to prevent the big Push for Damascus, then forcing an issue inside of Lebanon could be just the ticket.

THE KILLING OF GENERAL HASSAN SHATERI.

Okay, first off it's absolutely ridiculous referred to this individual as someone in charge of "construction" efforts is absolutely ludicrous!

The true depiction of Shateri is actually mentioned by the Iranians when they refer to him as someone who is just as important as the now deceased  Mugniyah.

The other issue that was absolutely predictable was linking this general's death to "Zionist guns for hire"!

You see, it's far easier to blame once again the Zionist and their backers than to come to the realization that an Iranian special operations general was killed on Syrian soil by Sunni Arabs in a civil war with Shia Persian backed Arabs.

Once we get past the ridiculous story of why this individual was in Syria, we need to recognize what this event could actually lead to.

The embarrassment to the Iranian leadership will quickly give way to the anger of Suleimani!

This guy is the real deal!

For him to be notified that one of his loyal generals has been gunned down inside of Syria is an issue he will not take lightly and more than likely you will not let go unpunished.

If anyone has forgotten, Suleimani is undoubtedly the person that is actually calling the shots in the Syrian conflict.

How these general was found and targeted was surely the priority question he asked of his staff.

If there is one redeeming factor to this event from the standpoint of escalation, it's the fact that this individual was killed on Syrian soil and not inside Lebanon.

Which direction Shateri was traveling when he was killed is insignificant.

Is damaging to the Iranians as it might be that he was killed on Syrian soil and the image that portrays to the rest of the world, things would have been far worse if this event would have taken place inside Lebanon.

Putting all of these issues aside, this event strikes yet another chapter in the Syrian conflict.

It is common knowledge the Iranians have been heavily involved inside of Syria from the beginning of this conflict, but the death of one of their senior military leaders who is not retired on how "pilgrimage" to some site in Syria is more than an ominous sign.

Iran has little to deny and it seems that almost unwilling to make up even an acceptable story as to why this individual would be on Syrian soil.

Simply put, it appears the Iranians no longer are concerned about the world's opinion of Koran functioning inside of Syria in support of Assad!

If there's anything to take away from the story, it's the way the Iranian leadership addressed the event in the open press.

Comparing Shateri three slaying Hezbollah hero is more than a hint that Iran no longer is willing to hide their open support for Assad!

Finally, this event will not go unpunished and the level of the reprisal will give us a very good indication of how comfortable the Iranians are with openly supporting Assad.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=303371

NOBODY IN EGYPT LOVES HAMAS ANYMORE???

Sometimes, governments send messages, in this case the Egyptian military, in ways that can't be overlooked if you're not paying attention.

The flooding of the Gaza Strip tunnels has an impact on the population inside Gaza, but the real message is to Hamas!

The denial of Hamas headquarters in Cairo is also a message from the Egyptian military.

So, let me ask a simple question.

Do these two events signal that the Egyptian military is one, not on the side of the Muslim brotherhood, and more importantly not in favor of supporting Hamas?

You see, it appears Egyptian military is actually sent to messages.

One is to the West and the second, in my opinion more importantly, to the brotherhood; "we still call the shots in Egypt"!

Make no mistake, these two rather remarkable yet apparently overlooked events seem to be sending a clear signal from Egypt's military.

Over the course of the last several weeks I've heard many individuals asked the question as to why the United States continues to send arms to the Egyptian military.

Could it be that the US government know something most others simply don't grasp?

Could the delivery of arms to the Egyptian military be taking place because the West understands the Egyptian military is still on "their side"?

One thing is for sure, Hamas in very short order is come to realize where they stand with the Egyptian military.

Quite honestly, there is a price for Hamas to pay for supporting terrorist operations in the Sinai and the loss of Egyptian military lives did not go unnoticed.

So what will become of the tunnel operations in the Gaza?

It appears not all the tunnels have been affected and quite honestly this event is probably nothing more than "messaging".

Denying Hamas headquarters in Cairo is also nothing more than "messaging"!

You can rest assured that both of these events did not go unnoticed by Iran and the brotherhood!

It also did not go unnoticed by the Israeli government.

The dynamics of Egypt became evident several weeks ago has its military appeared slow to react to the protest against the current government.

These two new events are further indications that all is not lost in the struggle for control of Egypt.

The Muslim brotherhood realizes today more than it did yesterday just how difficult it is to "rule".

I have spoken the past about the relationships that have developed between the IDF and the Egyptian military over the past 30 years and how these relationships cannot be overlooked.

None of these actions equate into smooth waters for Egypt, but they do give a clear indication of just how difficult certain organizations can make day-to-day life for the Muslim brotherhood.

I'm anxious to see the reactions of Hamas's leadership over these two events and I would have loved to been a fly on the wall when the phones began to ring between Hamas and the Muslim brotherhood.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=303168

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=303159

ISLAMIC JIHAD... JUST LIKE I SAID!!!

A few days ago, I commented on the dangers of Hamas and Fatah not reconciling their differences and how the more radical elements in the movement would rise to the forefront even to the point of circumventing both of them.

Today when I read this article, it became even clear to me that my theory is right on track.

The pressure that Islamic Jihad is placing upon Hamas is nothing new and yet the danger of this movement rising to the forefront grows with each passing day.

Concept of violent overthrow becoming the norm in the region and that will only embolden the Islamic Jihad to continue in uncompromising path.

Internal infighting for power and prestige keeps some of the organizations such as this one off balance, but that will not last forever and that will not prevent them are those like them from continuing to pressure Hamas and Fatah.

Now, it seems outrageous a conversation could be held in which Hamas is painted is somewhat of a rational operation!

As I said before, I in no way condone the actions are the tactics of Hamas, but the simple fact of the matter is their operations in organizations that feel even Hamas is too forgiving and too compromising.

This may be a confusing concept in the West, but it is not to the Israelis or the Arab leaders in the region.

Groups like Islamic Jihad continued to provide the rest of us an excellent measuring point as to just how dire events are becoming.

I would be interested to see the recruiting process inside Islamic Jihad and to obtain what their growth has been in the past 12 months.

When radical extremist organizations become the "flavor of the day" in Syria, then the popularity and prestige of joining groups like Islamic Jihad can only grow.

Okay, make this as simple as we can.

If those organizations that have the ability to "negotiate" cannot find a way to come to some level of understanding, then chaos is not far behind them!

The other dire problems of the region will face is the inability of all parties involved to admit our work towards a nonviolent partnership for the Palestinian cause.

It is and it will remain virtually impossible to convince the Israeli government a relationship between Fatah and Hamas will bring anything positive to the table.

Unfortunately, I probably agree with them!

The difference between Hamas and Islamic Jihad and those like Islamic Jihad is defined in terms insignificant most outsiders.

The drive for power and prestige and yes...... wealth is the real motivation behind all of these groups.

There is absolutely no reason why groups such as Islamic Jihad will do anything to support any type of peaceful movement and the Palestinian cause and in reality it will most likely do everything in her power to prevent.

The future of the Palestinian statehood issue continues to be dark and most likely has no concept of a light at the end of the tunnel.

A youth movement that is truly seeking justice and equality for all of the Palestinians is nowhere to be seen and even if it could be seen it is not armed and is not nearly as determined as the violent actors of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and all the others!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/islamic-jihad-join-plo.html

SO.. JUST HOW IMPORTANT IS A DAM???

So, what does the loss of the Taqba Dam mean to Assad?

To put it simply, it's huge!

It's a given that this Dam was probably highly protected and its loss produced a virtual stockpile of weapons and munitions for the rebels.

Yet, weapons cache was captured is not even 1/10 of the story at the strategic level.

There's been a saying in the Middle East for centuries; "he who controls the water controls the land"!

I can just imagine the conversation inside Iraq when word came at the rebels had captured this strategic location on Euphrates River.

Although this Dam is not critical in the production of electricity, it's the simple flow of water in the psychological damage of its loss that will impact what is left of the Syrian governments confidence, not to mention leadership of Iraq and Iran.

Some are already pondering, how hard with the Syrian government try to regain this facility?

Let me explain to you just how difficult a task this could prove to be.

Once the rebels occupied the control room for the locks in the dam itself the Syrian government was forced to contemplate a virtual man on man conflict in any attempt to regain the dam.

You see, you cannot use artillery, you cannot use helicopters, at least not at her full potential and you cannot use fighter aircraft even with precision munitions without destroying the physical facility you are trying to retake.

The psychological damage of losing such a strategic facility is perhaps the largest prize of  all for the rebels.

The water from Euphrates is every bit as important to the people of Iraq as it is the people of Syria.

Why the rebels chose this target speaks to their ability to comprehend strategic value versus tactical value or targets of simple opportunity.

This was a story that was easily overlooked today!

This is also a story that I can promise you provides us with one of the best indicators yet of Assad's future.

The battle for Damascus continues in the long run that truly is more important than the capture of the largest dam in Syria on Euphrates River, but this event, in my opinion, was overlooked to quickly today.

I can assure you it was not overlooked by Assad or his Bosses in Tehran.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013211154422865528.html

THE BATTLE FOR DAMASCUS AND IRAN'S PLAN!

Several times over the course of the past year and a half, I have commented on the possibilities of the random planning for continued actions on Syrian soil even after the fall of Assad!

I believe it is now a commonly accepted viewpoint that Iran has determined their ability to operate and support Hezbollah from inside Syria is an achievable an acceptable goal.

The rumors of training camps run by the Iranians have been spoken of for months now.

Logic would have it these militias would provide Iran the opportunity to maintain some acceptable control.

Having said that, Assad must be thinking twice about what the real intentions of these militias might be.

Are they there to prop him up and support him, or are they there simply to run Syria, what is left of it, after the fall the government?

Personally, I believe this theory is spot on.

Indications of  Assad's  demise are about as hard to determine as they could possibly be.

Nevertheless, in the past few days coordinated actions around the city of Damascus appeared to have an ominous tone for the Syrian government.

Close order combat inside the city of Damascus renders weapons such as fighter aircraft and long-range artillery virtually useless.

The Syrian military can ill afford to abandon the city for the simple purpose of leveling it given the fact that the last of their supporters are inside of the same city.

Could Damascus become the modern day Beirut?

Could battle lines be drawn virtually dividing the city as they did in the Lebanese Civil War,

With Iranian militias holding small pockets of territory and a unorganized divided rebel movement that is much better destroying operations than they are developing them or maintaining them is a formulary for sustaining conflict.

It's so it appears the ingredients for a stalemate and a divided and virtually nonexistent nation-state that was once called Syria have all come together.

Another unfortunate risk now returns to the forefront!

Assad's option of using WMDs is most likely predicated on his anticipated loss of Damascus.

For quite some time now I have stated the Iranians truly hold the trigger on Syria's WMDs.

I'm afraid the close enough in the timeline of such an event that my theory may be put to test.

Unfortunately these militias and the Islamic fundamentalist radical groups in Syria mixed with the concerns of unaccounted for weapons of mass destruction also creates a cocktail the Israelis will undoubtedly be unwilling to drink!

By the time the president United States visits Israel, there is a real possibility the topic will not be Palestinian statehood or even the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

There is even the possibility that by the time this meeting takes place in the region will simply be too "hot" for the presence travel.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302818

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201321019911209655.html