MOQTADA AL-SADR….. AN UPDATE!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the reemergence of al-Sadr in Iraq and the question of, “why now”?

Well, it’s Friday and we all know big speeches come on Friday! So, what has Sadr been up to in the past two weeks and what was the message today? 

Same theme, increased threats. That is how I would shape Sadr’s update. Pressure with threats of crowds has now taken the next step. Crowds that he now threatens to turn into dangerous protest that is the real change. Two weeks ago, it was the good old fashion “sit in”, but now, it’s the, ‘there will be trouble’, button he is pushing.

Now, when I last spoke of Sadr, my opinion was he was feeling threatened. His perception of he was being left out of the Shia movements, more specifically the fighting units of Shia the Persians had placed into action against I.S.  I still believe that is his core issue, but I am also more and more convinced he sees his window of opportunity reopened with the changing events in Syria. 

The classic power vacuum! Did the Russian’s create one with the perception, yes, perception, they pulled out of Syria? Did this move by the Tsar set the Persians off balance so much that Sadr believed the timing was right to get back into the Iraqi leadership game? Yes, his words and called for gatherings started just prior to the Russian withdrawal, but he has moved from words to action and I’m not sure he felt the timing was right until he perceived an opportunity with the Iranians.

As a reminder, Sadr is no longer the Persian puppet he once was. I’m one of the folks who never, truly believed he was in the first place. An advantage taker? An opportunist who used the Persians to move his vision of Iraq forward? That’s the mold I have always thought he fit.

So, the update is simple.

Sadr is taking his plan to the next phase and that phase calls for disruptive, angry crowds!

His message?

Iran no longer gets to call the shots in Iraq!

You don’t believe it?

Let’s keep watching as see who ends up being correct.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/03/25/Iraq-s-Sadr-threatens-unrest-if-reforms-blocked.html

THE ATTACK ON BRUSSELS AND THE CRISIS AT THE GATES OF THE MODERN WORLD  

Staffan de Mistura………you are a self-centered, complete idiot! So this moron looks at the attacks in Brussels, looks at what he is tasked with and decides to leverage this tragedy against showing someone he is making progress in his job.  If we could solve Syria, we could prevent attacks in Europe? Good Lord!  Just remember, tax payer money goes towards paying the salaries of these UN parasites. Ok enough about this sad example of a human.

Is there anything about the attack in Brussels that makes this event stand out from the dozens of others in all parts of the world? The same talking heads rush to the camera and make a few more dollars talking about how it most likely happened and even going as far as giving their “expert” advice on who did it.  

Political leaders stand in front of the camera and pledge their support to the victims and the country they live in and then run off to the next photo op!

Common people   light candles, toss flowers on the sidewalk and hug each other and then go back to whatever they were doing the hour before the event took place. Those in other countries ether turn the news off because they are sick of hearing about such attacks over and over again, or they sit and listen to the talking heads for the hundredth time in the past few years! Same story…same paycheck.

Those dedicated to stopping these events reflect on what they are not allowed to do to stop these events from happening and grow even more disgruntled with their leadership.

And the enemy………….what do they do?

A few minutes of basking in the light of the media coverage and then back to work. Back to the process of planning the next slaughter of unsuspecting future victims.

So, what is my point? What am I driving towards?

Are these events just part of our environment now?

Are they accepted patterns of our lives?

After all, acts like these have been going on for a very long time.

What makes them so disturbing, other than the images that come within seconds thanks to social media and YouTube; events that are covered so quickly, authorities have no chance of shaping the event.

Let’s ask the question from a different perspective.

Are events like these far more dramatic than when they happened in the 60s and 70s because the world is so interconnected, so fragile, the trauma is magnified to levels that create gridlock?

Short version: Is the world so socially sensitive that reoccurring trauma is feared beyond rational levels?

Is this an incentive way of saying, civilized societies are emotionally weak?

In some sad fashion, the answer is most likely……….yes!

Are we becoming human Sheep, terrified at the howl of the Wolf!

Is there any hope of finding a way out of this endless cycle of violence?

How do we finally come to terms with a segment of society that is bent on the destruction of modern, Western based civilization?

If this keeps up, what direction will Europe turn?

Do people look for safety when terror and violence is all around them and it seem all hope of staying safe is lost?

What kind of government are the people willing to accept?

If you don’t have the answers here, don’t worry, the enemy does!

They know exactly where this might lead and that is exactly what they are counting on.

If the people don’t take the direction the enemy wants, the results will not change.

The passive, sheep who walk the streets day by day will continue to fall victim until the anger of the masses brings the current government to their knees.

Insurrection movements in the 21^st century. How will governance come to terms with an ancient concept executed in a socially connected world?

“Houston….we have a problem”.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/03/22/U-N-envoy-Brussels-attack-shows-need-to-end-fire-of-war-in-Syria-.html

THE US PRESIDENT’S “MESSAGE” TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ON NOWRUZ. What’s in that egg?

On the Persian New Years, the President of the US sends a message to the Iranian people? What a great guy right? Just a jester from his heart showing what a compassionate person he is!

Yep.  I’m sure that’s just how the understanding and logical, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei received this positive gesture.

There is absolutely no way Khamenei would object to such an outreach.

It’s impossible to think for a single minute the real desire behind this message was to continue to add pressure on the moderate youth of Iran, the youth that just elected so called “moderates” into office. 

I am confident the US President is in no way attempting to apply pressure on the Iranian fanatical leaders by sending a message to their servants, I mean citizens!  

So, just how mad did this deliberate attempt by the US to influence the Iranian public make the fading Khamenei? How fast did he pound out a Hotmail reply to the new friend in the White House?

Yep….. Don’t hold your breath!

Is this a weak attempt to replicate the Chinese Ping-Pong event Nixon set up with the Chinese?

Nope.

Was this a deliberate aggravation?

Yep.

Will it have consequences?

Yep!

With a televised speech from Khamenei on Nowruz, the response was absolutely predictable.

Yep… the US is reneging on the nuclear program deal and oh by the way, we are altering the world banking program to keep the Iranians from their well-deserved money.

To top it off, why has the West realized the multistage missiles that Khamenei is about to test are for defending Iran! 

Man….the US just can’t seem to see what a good bunch of fellas the Iranians are!!!  

The poor old man Khamenei reaches out to us and what does the US President do but stick his finger in the old man’s eye by trying to incite the youth of Iran.

So, as the Iranian children dance around what appears to be giant Easter Eggs, the ruthless US President continues to kick sand in the face of this poor old man who is only trying to take care of the progressive youth of Iran he so dearly loves.

P.S. I wish the US would have let me draft that message! Now, that would have been fun.

Oh ya………Here is what scared me about this story……I think the Progressive dreamer from DC actually meant what he said in the message.

If the intelligence community duped him into making this message, thus playing on his risk avoidance nature, then the person who really may be upset is the guy in the White House. 

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/03/20/Obama-hails-undeniable-Iran-nuclear-deal-perks-.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35856932

RUSSIA’S SYRIAN WITHDRAWAL.... THE IDES OF MARCH HUH? OK, BUT WHO IS THE REAL BRUTUS?    

For years the Russian KGB were the masters of what was called, “Disinformation”! Their ability to release information that was developed for the explicit purpose of confusing their enemies was second to none! This concept wrecked the West for decades and it now appears the art form is back in full swing!

So, the US and the West “sold out” Tukey and Saudi? That’s the message from Moscow. By the way, I am confident Sputnik news has virtually every story they post preapproved by the Tsar’s information team.  Remember, the Masters of Disinformation! 

For several days now, the mystery has been, what happened? What changed? Yes there are rumors abound on the issue of a “deal” between the Russians and the US / West.  Would the US negotiate with the Tsar without the Turks and the Saudis knowing?

Yes.

Does that mean that is what happened?

It’s possible.

Let’s play my favorite game…………  “ What if”!

What if, the Russians and the West / US / came to an agreement and the only thing the progressive, passive, non-confrontational US  administration had as a demand was to not let the world know they caved once again to the Tsar?  Remember the “redline” event?

“Ok…..we will put the pressure on the Turks and the Saudis to not take military action in Syria and as soon as they see that we will not support them, you announce you are pulling out. We only ask that you no expose our position on this issue”.  Well….. I can hear those words coming right out of the mouth of Kerry and then see the White House Press Secretary smile and announce, “we had no idea”!

Here is the problem and it’s the kind of problem passive, progressive thinkers simply can’t come to grips with.

Aggressive parties see passive parties as “suckers”! That’s the way it’s been since the time of the Egyptian Empire and it holds true in 2016!

So, the Tsar calls a meeting, makes a promise not to “dime out” the other side and then….BAMM!!! Right between the eyes! 

Are you asking why?

If so, you need to keep studying the Tsar and the way he thinks.

Here is my simple answer.

Why not?

What is the price for doing such a dastardly deed?

Nothing… that’s the price the Tsar pays.

What does he get out of it? How does it benefit him?

Think globally for a minute and then think NATO and Europe!

If the Russians expose a US / Western / sellout of a NATO partner and a GCC leader, what is left of the West’s severely damaged reputation for the entire region?

Remember, the plan on the Tsar’s part was never based on saving Assad! The goal was to continue his master plan of placing the Russian Empire back on the world stage.

So, is that it? Is that what happened?

Did the Russians and the West make a deal based on keeping it a secret?

Did the Tsar then take the next step and expose what took place?

Sputnik’s article talks about the West / US / stabbing their Allies in the back!

Who stabbed who?

Does the Tsar really care about being called Brutus?

The Ides of March?

I admit, this story intrigues me!

This whole story just gets better and better, but confidence is a dangerous trait when the game of betrayal is being played.

Oh…One other question for the Tsar!

How did this act address the issue of the Kurds?

Did the West / US / sell them out as well?

Has that part not showed up yet?

Well, as I said yesterday. It wouldn’t be the first time the Kurds have felt the sting of Western betrayal.

http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160317/1036437934/russia-syria-withdrawal-saudis-turks.html

RUSSIA’S “VICTORY” WHAT DOES IT MEAN? DAZED AND CONFUSED!

It’s been a little over 48 hrs. since I first commented on the Tsar’s announcement of “Mission Accomplished”…..wait… that was someone else’s  line wasn’t itJ

I’ve waited two days to follow up on this story because I wanted to see just what reactions would come from the players in the region. 

So, let me take a stab at this issue and maybe we might see where this is all going; don’t get your hopes up!

I’m convinced one of the major reasons we have not witnessed a great deal reaction from players such as the GCC is because they were completely caught off guard by this event. Although, it could be, could, the behind the scene communications had this plan spelled out and part of the deal was to not have a victory lap taken by the anti Assad supporters.  Is the Tsar capable of doing such a behind the back move on the Persians? Silly question. Are the GCC members / Saudi / willing to cut any deal possible to get the Russians out of Syria or at least get them to stop pounding the Rebel groups the GCC supports? Again…..silly question. If we don’t see any semblance of a “victory lap” taken by the anti Assad camp within another 48hrs, I will place a great deal more stock in the “behind the scene / back / talks”. 

Let me travel on from the mystery of why so little has been said. Let us take a look at what does this pull out really mean?

First and foremost, if anyone has paid attention, they would realize the Russian anti air systems are not part of the “deal”.  Yes the rumor is the 400s are going to be taken down, but the other systems, ones the IDF can deal with by the way, are staying, at least for now.  Can the Turks fly into Syrian airspace to raid the Kurds? Well, revenge is a meal best served cold, especially by the Tsar….perhaps even a parting shot… no pun intended! 

So, to the anti Assad forces, it means, if there was no “deal” cut, a final push to remove Assad can now, once again, be contemplated.  Did the Tsar grow tired of Assad’s entrenched attitude on the topic of negotiating a compromises? That is one of the mainstream lines of thought and I wouldn’t be opposed to that theory, although the holistic review of the Russian game is far more complex than just Assad’s attitude.

Can the Anti Assad team led by the GCC and the Turks, now start the process to take Assad out? We should be able to see signs of this operation within the next few weeks, if it’s actually going to happen.  Even if this does begin to happen, I will be more than curious to see just how they would collectively pull this off? Who runs the country if Assad is overtaken tomorrow? Remember the scene from Laurence of Araba when all the tribal fighters finally reach Damascus? That is my vision of a 2016 fallen Damascus!

If the anti Assad faction is really preparing to make a renewed push on Assad and the Russians have made a “deal” to stand by as this happens, then what does the new Syrian government look like?  Oh ya… all the rumors of the partitioning of Syria; just another stupid Western concept probably concocted    at a Kerry cocktail party!  What a disaster that would be and in the end, the Kurds would get sold out …….just like at the end of Desert Storm.

Now, that we have kicked around the concept of what the anti Assad team may be up to or what options they might have, let’s take a look at an even more interesting issue!

What is Assad’s team up to?

First off, Assad’s government stated, on the same day as the Tsar’s announcement, an announcement that looks as if caught the US Administration off guard, but then again….is anyone really surprised by that fact…. That they had been part of the withdrawal planning process with the Russians.  Really?  What else would anyone expect them to say?

Here is another puzzling issue that if true, tells me the Iranians were in on this “deal”.

Yesterday, I read a story, linked attached, reported by NOW that Hezbollah fighters were pulling out of Syria at the same moment the Russians were leaving!  Think about that for a minute.  If the Russians blindsided the Persians by putting together a pull out deal with the GCC/ Saudi’s / why in the world would Hezbollah be in a position to leave the Syrian battlefield so quickly?

If a “deal” has been agreed to and part of that deal was for Hezbollah to abandon Assad, something the families in Lebanon would love to hear, then Iran would have to be part of the “deal” for Hezbollah works for the Persians!  Now, if a rumor had been out there the Russians were going to leave, something you could tell just by watching the airbases they were working out of, then perhaps some of the local Hezbollah Commanders, Commanders under great pressure from their supporting members back in Lebanon, decided it was time to cut bait? The bottom line is this; if Hezbollah is really pulling out of Syria, then ether Iran has lost control of them, or the Iranian Guard “advisors” will be right behind them as they head for the exit!

If the decision has been made to write Assad off and the Russians and the Iranians have both signed on to the deal, then Assad is doomed! Four years ago, I said Assad only last as long as Moscow wants him to. 

Now, let me just say, I’m not confident all this coordination has taken place. My hunch is the Russians could care less what the Persians think of the Russians leaving Syria. I also think Hezbollah would be insane to go against the will of the Persians.  I still think the Russian move caught the whole region off guard and it’s simply too soon to see what the consequences are going to be.  By the way, would Saudi hammer Lebanon fiscally and politically like they have in the past month if they thought Hezbollah was leaving the battlefields in Syria?

48hrs into this brand new scenario for Syria and there can be only two groups of people.

Those who are confused and those who have been in a possible deal. I don’t buy the deal theory, but I had to play it out to see if it held water. 

As for the West / US / and this change in events……..well… it is possible to be more than confused…. You can actually have….Dazed and Confused!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566739-hezbollah-withdrawing-fighters-from-syria-report

RUSSIAN PULLOUT. “OBJECTIVE ACHIEVED” OR HAS SOMETHING CHANGED?

It is a given that the Tsar is a methodical planner and hates to deviate once he has his mind set on an objective.  “Largely …Objective Achieved”? His words! Really? Is that what took place? Did his plan call for pushing the anti-Assad forces to the negotiating table? I’m not a betting man, but something tells me I wouldn’t put money on that theory!

If we don’t buy the story of “Largely Achieved”, then what are we to think? What changed?

Let’s look at this whole scenario from another angle. Did something happen that made the Tsar change his plans and if so, what? 

Was the moment of confrontation with Turkey reaching the point that it might actually take place? Did the bombing yesterday in the Turkish capital push them over the edge? 

Did the phone ring in Moscow with someone saying, “I think the Turks have had enough. They are going to move on the Kurds and they are willing to confront you over it”?  The Turks have openly commented time and time again about the Russian support to the Kurdish fighters and the drive to secure some version of Kurdistan along the Turkish border.  Was this latest attack in Ankara the game changer for the Tsar? Has he ever really been willing to risk open confrontation with a NATO member? His reaction to his lost fighter jet and pilot could have given us part of that answer. Bottom line: Did Turkey just make the Tsar change his plan? Again, my hunch is has weighted heavily on his mind from the very beginning.

What about the downing of the Syrian fighter two days ago? Did that have an impact? 

Did the phone ring in Moscow only to have someone say, “The ability to down advanced aircraft are now in the hands of the Rebels”.  Did the victories of the Assad government lead to the GCC supplying the Rebels with the ability to attack the one force they had no answer to?  How would the Tsar react to one of his invincible fighters being shot down not just by a NATO partner, but by a ragtag bunch of Rebels? How would the Russian people react to a second embarrassment? Could the Tsar risk being seen as a Paper Tiger? Would this lead to him having to accuse the very nations he needs to make peace with…..the oil producers of the region….the future partners of a Russian supported version of OPEC? 

Here is another thought to contemplate. Almost five years ago now, I commented on this blog site that Assad would only last as long as the Tsar wanted him to. In the end, not even the Persians would hold Assad’s fate. Did the Tsar just determine his support for Assad is over?  Was a “deal” finally struck with the GCC/ Saudi? The Russian entrance into Syria was never about saving the Tsar’s friend Assad…he could care less about the Eye Doctor.  It’s been about Russia and the Tsar’s grand plan from day one.  He is a far cry from being a fool perhaps the risk assessment of continuing on was, in his opinion, getting beyond acceptable limits.

So, drawing a firm conclusion as to why he made this announcement is just too difficult, at least at this moment in time. We do know the man who prides himself on image, such as his bear hunting or horseback riding with no shirt on, has to be contemplating just how this announcement will play in the eyes of the rest of the world.  He can’t afford to be seen as cutting and running. He can’t afford to make it look like the Mad Ottoman called his bluff.  He can’t afford the last tank going over the bridge scene to replay itself again……it can’t be an Afghanistan moment.  

We will have to watch over the course of the next few days or maybe even a week to see if this was a planned event or a reaction to some new circumstance. 

In reality, what is even more intriguing to me, is the second order effects that will take place because of this announcement.

Where do we go from here? 

MUQTADA AL-SADR…..”IT’S NOW OR NEVER”

If you are in a hurry today and you don’t know the answer to the question, here it is.

No. He was never gone!

If you have the time to think through what is taking place with him, then here we go.

Muqtada al-Sadr is what to Iraq, the Iraq of 2016, not 2003?

First let’s face some cold hard facts so we can continue on with analyzing what his name popping back into the picture truly means.

To the US and the Western forces that fought in Iraq, he is and was a stone cold killer and the facts are, many US and Western service members were killed by his followers!

Another fact, he was and is a national hero to many of the Shia and even some of the Sunni in Iraq and that cross sectarian support makes him a very unique and powerful person. 

Here is another fact, that must be mixed into the conversation. He has never been a true Iranian lapdog! Yes, he followed their commands and yes he carried out their wishes,espessaly in the early days of the War in Iraq, but if you could get him alone, I would be willing to bet the “friendship/ loyalty” story would be very different.  Short answer, he used Iran! He used Iran to the extent he deemed necessary and when the time came to pull away, he did just that.

So what is al-Sadr?

Easy….he’s a Nationalist, and like all true, driven nationalistic leaders, he is an egomaniac! Well….no surprises there! All one has to do is look at how young he was when he truly thought he could become the spiritual leader for Iraq…..in his 20s….really….even his own people smiled at the somewhat comical  thought of a 20 something becoming  a spiritual leader!  Yes his Dad was a well-known man, but he probably heard an old President Reagan more than once, “ I knew you Father and you are no …..”!  Didn’t go over well with him, but it did show him something he came to understand. Somethings take time and at 20 something, he had just that, time!  The problem was, he had to stay alive in a country were doing so was more than a challenge. Could he run back to Iran and hide out for ten or fifteen years? Probably not, burned that bridge!

Where did he go?

The short answer is, dormant, passive, off the radar!

The more complex answer is he went to school! He did what a twenty something dreamer has to do if they want to live to see their dreams come true. He shut up and listened, watched and planned and then….waited!  Most importantly…………he grew! He expanded his network and he became a very dedicated student of what was really happening in the region and how he could exploit every ounce of what was taking place.

He had and has a problem.  The Islamic State movement! No one understood the origin of this organization better than al-Sadr, but it was Sunni based and violent beyond even his standards! He had severely weakened his stance with the Shia Mothership, Iran and at the time when the I.S units rushed back into Iraq, virtually pushing all the way to Bagdad, al-Sadr’s dreams came dangerously close to disappearing in the fire of I.S madness!  Was it too late? Would Iraq fall into the total madness Syria had become? Had his time passed and with it, his dream of being the real leader, savior of Iraq? 

As if the twist of the I.S. movement wasn’t enough to foil al-Sadr’s dreams, the Persians gave him an even greater challenge.

Up until the time of his parting of ways with the Iranians, al-Sadr was the Shia hero of Iraq. His fighters were thought to be the best the Shia had to offer and they would execute any order their hero would give them. But, the Iranians were about to head in a new direction and that direction didn’t include al-Sadr!

With the failure of the Iraqi army and the advancement of the I.S. Zombies, the Iranians needed to place some obstacle in front of the I.S. fighters and their best bet were the Shia militias!

There is one reality about young men who know nothing but conflict and the adrenalin surge it brings them. They would rather fight than find a real job and become even remotely responsible for their day to day lives. The Iranian’s needed fighters and the fighters who had in support of al-Sadr loved the idea of continuing the thrill of killing.  Not only did many of them jump at the opportunity to join new Shia militias, most were even more committed than in the past; for you see, this was a religious war now and the Sunni / I.S. fighters had to die!

Could al-Sadr have prevented many of the Shia fighters from forming new groups, groups with alliances to Iran? Perhaps some of them, but in the end, what purpose would that have served? How would that impact his dream?

Al-Sadr took a gamble. He risked his relevancy. Would the new Shia militia leaders push al-Sadr into Iraq’s past? 

Is this that was driven al-Sadr to step back onto the stage in Iraq, or was this moment in time all part of his master plan?

He is over 40 now and far closer to being given the respect by his religious superiors he so badly dreamed of in the past. He was no longer the leader of the Shia resistance, a resistance not based on pushing the Western Infidels out of Iraq, but saving the Shia faith from the new, even more historical threat………….The radical Sunnis…..I.S!

So, why is he back after all this time?

It may not have been his plan, but my bet is he has changed his plan.  He has moved his timetable. He has reevaluated what needs to be done! 

The Abadi government is in the back pocket of the Iranians.  The Iranians control the Shia militias, militias that once only took their orders from him.

Sometime in the past few months, al-Sadr may have awoken from one of his dreams to realize………………it’s now or never! 

How do the Persians react to this Iraqi Nationalist?  What to do with him?

Let’s see how this plays out! 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/iraqi-cleric-muqtada-al-sadr-calls-baghdad-sit-160312130617150.html