AMBASSADOR KARLOV’S ASSASSINATION. HOW DID IT HAPPEN?  

Behind the scene of all the political drama this assassination created, sits a very….very…concerning question. A question that everyone that has ever been in the business of keeping others safe is asking. How? How did the Assassin gain a position of such importance and trust? Simply put, how did this happen? Well, let’s take a look at just a few events that took place prior to this attack and see if they might provide any clues!

 The purge:

For over two years now, Egodan has been on a completely uncontrolled journey of dismantling the Law Enforcement agencies of Turkey. His obsession with the idea that Gulen’s followers had infiltrated almost every level of every Law Enforcement agency in Turkey is well documented. Egodan’s paranoia has no limits and after the attempted coup, well, he became clinically neurotic; as if he wasn’t already so. History has shown us that purges based on paranoia always result in dysfunctional organizations that produce even more dramatic events.

After the purge of Turkish Law Enforcement agnecies, it is very likely the surviving leadership was nearly desperate to fill the voids created by the purging actions. How well were the new “recruits” vetted? How expedited was the background process? It’s a universal fact that law enforcement agencies that attempted to quickly bring on additional members eventually suffer from the quality of the members they so quickly pushed through the process. Turkish law enforcement management not only had to try to refill the ranks of their organizations, but they had to do so with under the scrutiny of a mad man. I could go on and on about the consequences of Egodan’s actions, but the bottom line is this, Turkey’s ability to provide one of the basic tenets of a functional society, law enforcement, has been severely damage.

 The Consequences:

The consequences of Egodan’s purge mentality go far deeper than just a loss of basic, law enforcement. The Turkish military has been just rendered just as inoperable as their law enforcement partners and the world knows it. The Tsar knows this better than anyone and never forget my theory on his desire to neutralize NATO. By the way, is the Tsar willing to sacrifice an Ambassador for the sake of reaching his goal? Absolutely!

Imagine the reaction of the other countries agencies charged with protecting their diplomats when they are in Turkey? What was the reaction when they learned who the shooter was? Where is the level of trust in any other member of that Turkish security agency? Just think of the shock the good member of the Turkish Security Service had to endure. People who carry a gun for a living, people who are charged with keeping the peace and the protection of the unprotected take great pride in what they do. Honor runs deep in that part of the world and honor was ripped from the good members on that day. Trust was destroyed not because of anger, but out of necessity. Could the US State Department Security program trust anyone assigned by Turkish officials after that day? What was the damage done at the operational, partnerships level after that day?

When the Assassin decided he was going to kill the Russian Ambassador, did he contemplate the impact it would have on the organizations sworn to keep people safe? Did he truly understand the damage of trust he would create? I bet not. His motive was the motive of most Assassins, revenge! The ramifications, the increase cost of keeping others safe after this attack was never factored into his goal.

As quickly as the question of “how” could be contemplated, typically by the political leaders of the world, the reality is, most organization tasked with keeping people safe asked a different question. A question with even greater consequences. “Are there more”? That question can be framed in a different fashion. “Did he have help”? Now, most logical, normal individuals at recognized, professional agencies asked this question in a very scripted way. Finding that answer is almost a checklist process for most. Most, but not for the man who runs Turkey. If any event could drive Egodan’s paranoia deeper into the realm of irrational behavior, it would be the assassination of a Russian Diplomat in Turkey!   What action did he take after this act? What actions will he take because of this act?

The assassination of a Russian Ambassador is an extremely dangerous event. The assassination taking place in a country run by someone like Egodan, well, that makes predictive analysis nearly impossible.  I have to wonder where the Assassin’s Supervisor is. Does he have any fingernails left? Did he even have a clue? Frankly, to a man like Egodan, it doesn’t matter!