If you search my site, you will see how many times I've
addressed the questions of Syria 's
Chemical / WMD / programs.
As I reviewed my comments on Assad's past chemical events, I
find myself coming back to the same baseline questions once again.
Why?
Why now?
Did he take actions unilaterally or did he have permission
from his handlers ... Iran /
Russia ?
Let me see if I can explain why this time might be different
than that past, other than the magnitude of victims.
This time around, only two of the three past questions have
any true relevance.
Why and why now; are rolled into one answer.
Assad and more importantly his Masters have begun to realize
they are going to lose!
For nearly two years the constant fear and drum beat from
the rest of the word has been the issue of Assad utilizing WMD weapons as he
runs out of options.
Let me make this as clear as I can.
Assad / Hezbollah and even the Persian Mystic Warriors are
not going to see victory in Aleppo .
More than just the rebels are prepared to make a stand in Aleppo .
The GCC nations will do whatever it takes keep the Rebels
from failing in Aleppo .
Since the beginning of Assad's Battle of the Bulge, the primary mission of
securing Damacus, the most basic objective of the mission, has not been
achievable.
Assad and all of his forces / both internal and external
have not managed to secure the part of the country he and his followers planned
to fall back to.. not even with Russian support!
As I stated when Assad's Battle of Bulge began, the moment
in time of the counterstrike would come and that would be the exact moment in
time when Assad and all of his followers would lose hope!
Well, the prediction, as dire as it was, seems to have
become a reality that is even worse than Assad could have imagined.
A true counterstrike is not even underway, and it will still
come, and Assad's henchmen simply can't secure a single section of Syria .
You see, the oldest of many military truisms has come true.
It is one thing to take land from your enemy...it's a far
more difficult goal to keep it and keep it's people from walking the streets
without killing you.
Just look at the last ten years for the West and it's
desires in Afghanistan !
Ok, back on target here.
So, has Assad and his Masters come to the conclusion that
placing chemical weapons on the battlefield is the only option to perhaps turn
the tide.. Win the Battle
of the Bulge?
Look at this question form two perspectives.
Will a thousand dead Children and Women tear the hearts out
of Islamic Fundamentalist, fanatical fighters?
I think we all know the answer to that question.
Will the use of chemical weapons on a larger scale than past
attacks force the rest of the world to force the rebels to the negotiation
table?
Again, we know the answer.
So, what made him take this action?
My answer comes inside the explanation of the second categorical
question.
Did he take "unilateral action"?
Here is the short answer.
NO!
So, did he have "permission"?
No..
He didn't need "permission", for you see, it was
not decision.
Anyone who believes that Assad at this stage of the game, a
game of regional power plays between old Super Powers and an aspiring, new
one... singular... as in China, is
simply out of touch with reality.
Now, that is going to lead you to an even more interesting
and dangerous question.
Who's idea was it and why?
Would the Persians launch such a plan without the Tsar's
inputs?
That's a Good question
with no rock solid answer.
Did the Persians come to the "Use or Lose"
conclusion and simply inform Assad what was going to take place?
If the answer is yes, then did the Persians notify the Tsar?
Let's look at the Russian response to see if there is a hint
of an answer.
To paraphrase Russia 's response, ' We support UN response
to the impacted area'!
Oh ya, toss into the answer from the Tsar's team the age
old, worn out comment of, "The Rebels may have been responsible".
At this point in time, not even the Russian can believe that
any part of the free world would believe such a concept, but then the Russian's
may not really care what the rest of the world believes.
Here is what the Tsar and his Persian precarious partners
may believe.
"Let's show the rest of the world just how far we are
willing to go to keep Syria !
"Let's see just how far the "Free World" is willing to go?
" Oh, by the way!..... What does the GCC really think
they can do about it"?
Are these three statements even close to what the Tsar's
team and the Persians are capable of contemplating?
My bet is, it's really....really close!!!!
So, what does it all mean?
If we accept the fact that Syria and it's Allies just upped
the stake by a factor feared for well over two years, what is going to happen?
What does the rest of the world do?
Let's start with what the GCC can do and has done, for as
much as the Tsar would like to believe the GCC will simply accept a new
"Boss" in the region, he may have completely underestimated the GCC.
For months now, I have commented on what price Hezbollah
would end up paying for answering the call of their Persian Masters.
The mass graves filled with Hezbollah dead...dead that are
still unknown to the families back in Lebanon .
Bombs in Hezbollah's base of support back in Lebanon with a
growing cry of, "come home and take care of your own".
And now today..... a bombing event that is sure to drive the
violence over the edge in Lebanon .
You see, as I have said before, the plan from day one was to
make Hezbollah pay a price they simply will not be able to pay as time goes on.
Pulling Hezbollah from the Battlefields of Syria, that was
the GCC plan from day one!
As of today, I would be wiling to bet, its working!
If Lebanon
explodes, Hezbollah must go home or there will be no "home" to go
home to!
Nobody understands this more than the Persians.
A Hezbollah in full retreat.... that is the signal for my
predicted, "counter attack".
Yep... Aleppo is the Bastogne
of Assad's Battle
of the Bulge and the breakout for the Rebels will be the withdraw of Hezbollah.
The Persians and the Tsar see the breakout coming!
Remember the Tsar needs the Northern Caucasus Islamic
fighters as committed to the sectarian war in Syria as possible; at least until
the Olympics are over!
So, round one of retaliation for the chemical attack will
come in the form of starting a fire in Lebanon ... a fire they may have
started today.
So, the underestimated GCC gains the advantage, at least
from their perspective.
Ok, that's the explanation of what the Arabs will do.
What about the rest of the world?
Who is willing to finally enter the battlefield of Syria ?
Is the answer, nobody?
Perhaps!
Is it possible to do something with the intent of not really
getting involved?
That is most likely what several countries are desperately
looking to achieve.
"Lets do something... but let's not get in over our
heads"!
Can you say, Libya ....
round two?
Would that work?
Nope!
Even the slightest Western action in Syria has all the propensity in the
world to light the region just as many have predicted for over two years.
But, if no real action is taken, won't process simply repeat
itself?
Perhaps not!
Remember, the chemical action was not based on breaking the
will of the Rebels.
This round of chemical attacks didn't secure a single foot
of Damascus and
revenge on some massive scale is going to be the Rebel response; that you can
assure yourself of.
By now, it's easy to see just how impossible the whole
region is becoming and again, that is a scenario many had predicted.
To end this conversation, let's go back to a yet another
basic tenant of Warfare.
Warfare in its purest form is the final decision of governance that has completely run out of
options!
The most dangerous question has finally been place upon the
world's table!
Have the Persians and the Tsar simply pushed the Western
world too far?
Is armed conflict inside of Syria finally the only option that
saves the whole region from warfare?
Remember... I have always said, Lebanon was the key to a true
regional war.
If that card is now in play by both the GCC and the enemies
of the GCC, then the rest of the world is now at a time of decision.
In the end, limited,
tactical precession strikes that gives key players time to pull back from the
battlefield before it gets out of control.... that is most likely the final
option
