PILLAR OF DEFENSE... HOW BAD CAN IT GET?

Wars are like forest fires... they can only get as large as the fuel that can feed them.

Last night I painted a picture of why nobody in the Arab world or the Persians or the Ottomans are going to come to the military aid of Hamas.... Oh I forgot to mention.. Abbas would secretly love to see Hamas neutralized.... and as of today it became obvious I was correct.. at least for now!!

As we can clearly see from this speech given by Nasrallah, Hezbollah has no intent to engage a IDF force that is willing to take what ever actions are required to win this time around..

Nasrallah knows this is NOT 2006 and this is not the same IDF he faced then.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=457068

Now, the fact that no nation is willing to militarily engage the IDF doesn't mean several of them are not going to take every advantage they possibly can from this event.

Assad is sitting back in Damascus praying this conflict last at least a month if not more.

Some say he may even attempt to get involved to increase the " distracter factor", but I simply don't see that happening.

Everyone in the region sees the intent in the IDF and it's political leadership this time around and that is something to avoid at all cost.

After four or five days of conflict with the IDF what is operationally left of Syria's forces would be ripe for destruction by the FSA and other rebel groups.

Simply put, if Assad steps into the Hamas conflict, he will insure his destruction.

Ok, lets get back to the issue of everyone in the region taking advantage of the conflict.

Assad... it's clear.. .it buys him time... what he does with that time is unknown, but my bet is he turns up the heat on several of the areas he has the most trouble with.

Hezbollah and Iran will play the "Arab Spring" card much like the Hamas leadership tried to do today.

The concept of linking the Hamas movement with the great issue of the Arab Spring may sound appealing to some in the region, but it will not stop the IDF from turning Hamas locations into smoking holes in the ground.

Can we expect large scale protest against the US / West / and Israel?

Absolutely.

Will this create greater problems for nations like Jordan?

Yes!

Will it change the tactical outcome for Hamas?

Not a chance.

Will the Arab nations try to place pressure on the US and the UN to get Israel to slow down or stop?

They already have and will continue to do so; with the exception of the GCC states.

Remember... the GCC needs Israel more than they need the Palestinians.

Ok, here comes the one sticky point, at least from my perspective.

Egypt!

Is Egypt willing to risk military conflict with Israel?

No!

The truth of the matter is the IDF and the key members of the Egyptian military have closer ties than many of the Egyptian military leaders do with their own leader!

Morsi is no fool and he sees both a threat and an opportunity in this event.

He knows he has the Islamic Fundamentalist in Egypt breathing down his neck and one of the issues they are after him about is the Camp David Treaty.

Taking some action that is shy of forcing the IDF  into conflict is a option he simply must risk to keep the "Radicals" off his back.

Sending his Prime Minister to Gaza on Friday is one example of Morsi trying to play both sides of the fence; a fence he could find himself impaled on if he is not careful.

Tactically speaking, this event will not go over well with Israel and the IDF.

A Egyptian diplomat in Gaza with an group of other Egyptian government officials creates a tactical nightmare for the IDF.

It is virtually impossible to conduct targeting if the IDF doesn't know where these group of diplomats will be.

We all know this is going to be a traveling Dog and Pony Show and it is ludicrous to believe Hamas would make notification where they are taking the Egyptian team to visit.

If the Egyptians are smart, they will limit their travels in Gaza and limit how long they are there, but again, you must realize Morsi is playing a very delicate balancing act here.

 A pause in the IDF operations will be seen as a advantage for the Hamas rocket teams.

They will have time to move and time to rethink and that is not to Israel's advantage.

This Egyptian visit is a dangerous game and it will test the resolve of Israel more than any other event in the past few years.

So, the bottom line is this.

Nobody is going to come to the military aid of Hamas and that will allow Israel to judge at what level will they accept Hamas' combat effectiveness.

A limited Hamas support package will allow Israel to limit the destruction of Gaza.

The danger comes from Egypt as Morsi tries to play regional leader, but with devastating consequences both inside his country and from his neighbor!

Tomorrow I would like to discus the tactical side of this event.....

Some fascinating issues need to be reviewed and made clear to everyone who is watching and wondering why is this time different from 2006 / 2008?

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/58256/World/Region/As-Gaza-death-toll-mounts,-Cairo-tries-to-mediate-.aspx