SO.  WHAT BECAME OF THE UKRAINIAN “CRISIS”?

Took off the past few days to get a few other things out of the way, but it’s a new month and time to get back to business.

Ukraine?

Where did that story go?

Yes the flavor of the week is Islamic State with a side dish of Ebola, but why did the Ukrainian conflict fall off the media radar?

Lack of blood and violence?

Well, that has a huge impact on the attention deficit public, but are there other reasons?

Here is one everyone might want to try on for size; the Tsar!!!!

From the very beginning of this Ukrainian story, I’ve stuck to my guns on what is taking place.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is no “accident”.

The “end state” of this adventure will be based upon what the Tsar desires and it appears he desires a halt in-between phases!

If we look at what was taking place just prior to this current “calm”, we will understand the big question.

Just prior to the Russian deployment of forces into South Eastern, the Pro  Tsar forces were about to be routed.

Was that an outcome the Tsar was willing to accept?

Hardly!

Had the process been executing according to the Tsar’s plan?

Well, no… but such is the case of many complex, strategic plans!

What happened next was all too predictable.

The Tsar simply up the stakes and the West closed their eyes.

With Eyes Wide Shut, the West accepted what they didn’t want to face, Russian forces in Ukraine.

So, with a plan not going as “planned”, the Tsar placed his plan back on track.

Let’s face the facts.

If the Pro Putin forces would have been routed, the Tsar would have been facing the greatest failure of his career.

With the reality of Russian forces on the move in Southern Ukraine and the Tsar’s resolve to take the event to any level necessary to succeed, the West did the only thing it could do; tell the Ukrainian government to stop!

As of today, where does the event stand?

I’ll give you a hint.

Winter is nearly on the region and the Pro Putin forces now have a secure section of the Ukrainian East to reorganize from.

Could they have done the same from just inside the Russian border?

Yes, but the message / perception would have been all wrong for the Tsar…..Defeat!

This Winter the Pro Russian forces will be hard at work……hard at work of plotting the next phase of the Tsar’s plan to retake the region.

Does that mean things are quiet for now?

Yes..

Is that music to Western ears?

Yes..

Are the dangers in the Ukraine or Eastern Europe over?

Give Poland a call and ask them.

YEMEN AND WHAT REALLY MATTERS TO SAUDI?

Once again, and predictably I might add, the stability of Yemen moves to the forefront, or at least from the Saudi perspective that is.

I was reading the attached story by Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor and was struck by a comment that I had not considered.

In the eyes of the GCC leadership, the Persians now control four historically significant Arab capitals: Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and now Sanna.

So, what is truly more important to Saudi and thus the GCC?

The defeat of a proxy organization, admittedly a dangerous one, or the Persians?

Can a Sunni based movement be manipulated by the Persians to kill fellow Sunnis?

Yes and it is already taking place.

Can this same movement be utilized to disrupt the Persian plans?

Yes, just look at Iraq.

So, in the eyes of the Gulf States, where is the real threat?

Are the events in Yemen more important than the events in Syria?

Depends on who you ask.

What will the new event in Yemen lead to?

Did the GCC members take part in the mission to bomb Syria for the sake of the West?

Did the GCC take part in order to show the Persians they have the will and the ability to fight in an integrated fashion?

If yet another “statement” needs to be made by the Saudis and the GCC, will it be made in Yemen?

Will the Peninsula  Shield forces be used in Yemen?

Where to the Saudi F15 /16s fly next?

If the mission is to “destroy” the “Terrorist”, does only the West get to define who the Terrorist are?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/26/Iran-follows-its-agenda-while-the-Arabs-are-distracted.html

AS ASSAD TAKES CREDIT, WILL THE “COALITION” HOLD?

 As you read this link, skip down to the section called, “right direction”.

Ask yourself this question.

If Assad continues to paint a picture of the West “supporting” him, backed by the US State Department admitting to communicating with him, will the key Arab partners stay?

Can a Sunni government withstand the public press of Assad taking credit for the “cooperation” with the Alliance?

What really gets me is the implied point of, “it’s a good thing they told us and didn’t harm our civilians”!

Remember, only Assad is allowed to butcher his servants, I mean civilians.

How Assad would shape this Western Alliance was the top concern of GCC leadership when they signed up to the US plan and I am sure it’s even more of a topic today.

Can the Iranians and the Tsar get Assad to make even more aggravating statements thereby stressing the US “Alliance”, you bet!

Remember what the Russian strategic goal is here; Western / US / failure in the Middle East.

Will the Coalition Hold?

We are going to find out soon.

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/09/24/U-S-officials-issue-warning-on-Syria-based-threat.html

DOES THE “CAMPAIGN” AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE FORCES LEAD TO WHAC A MOLE?

So, some type of “campaign” is now underway in Syria and rest assured, no matter how well thought out the process was developed by the Pentagon, the politicians will figure out how to screw it up!

Now, that is not to say whatever the planners came up with would work, given one of the oldest rules of conflict; they enemy gets a vote”!

Whac a Mole:

Some have talked about the possibility of this phenomenon taking place once a true “campaign” began against the Islamic State forces, but the reality is, it most likely will take place and it could prove to be the undoing of the “ campaign”!

Leadership of the Islamic State movement understands they have no ability to conduct a  ‘force on force” conflict with their attackers.

They do realize the ability to show they survived and can still strike fear in the hearts of their attackers is the absolute definition of victory.

If 30 days into a Billion Dollar Air Campaign, by the way, don’t fool yourself into actually thinking this is only an Air Campaign, yet another innocent individual loses their head on You Tube, where does the public opinion go?

  If one of the Allies of this new “campaign” looks to their South as sees an out of control Crisis in Yemen, what is the reaction?

If a Jordanian national is kidnapped and executed, what then?

If an IS cell attacks in France?

Is everybody in; all the way in?

The West and its Allies have made their initial move.

It won’t be the last action on the Alliance and it will not be the end of the Islamic State movement.

It’s one thing to say, “this will be a ‘long’ campaign.

It’s another for the public in multiple nations to understand it; just ask GW.

Did the enemies of the Islamic State movement just kick off the next round of “Whac a Mole”?

How many locations can the Western Alliance bomb?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/23/The-fall-of-Sanaa-What-next-for-Yemen-.html

THE RETURN OF TURKISH CITIZENS, DOES THAT MEAN TURKEY IS IN NOW?

A little over two weeks ago, the standard US State Department answer on the support of Turkey for anti IS movement was, “they are really hamstrung by the ‘hostages’ and are limited in what they can do”!

Ok, the Hostages are back!

Now what?

Can the Western / NATO / forces fly out of the NATO airbase in Turkey?

Will Turkey’s military openly support the operation?

Perhaps we should look at this issue from another perspective?

Is the new Ottoman Sultan going to allow the Kurds to come out of the battle with IS victorious?

What is more important to the Ottomans?

The destruction of Islamic State forces or the suppression of Kurdistan?

I bet I know!

Now, is it possible there will be some, “unofficial” support, limited in nature, from Turkey?

Probably enough to placate the West; a West that is desperate not to criticize the Turks in the first place.

Pulling Sunni so called “moderate” forces all the way to Saudi for months of training makes far less sense than simply moving them across the border into Turkey, a military that is very skilled at training to NATO standards.

Is that going to happen?

Is our NATO partner going to play a NATO role?

Some things always take place without fanfare.

Sometimes, some of these “things” are more important than the ones placed in the open.

Is Turkey going to play their required NATO role now that the excuse is gone? 

IF ISLAMIC FORCES “MUTATE”, WILL THE WEST STILL PURSUE?

Rumors upon rumors in the past few days centered around IS forces folding in with other Sunni movements in Syria have perpetuated yet another key question.

If IS forces “mutate”, will the West / US / still pursue the fight?

How many similar movements is the West ready to attack?

Last week, I stated one of the most common forms of survival for Guerrilla fighters is to melt away and live to fight another day.

One version of this tactic is to hide inside a movement much like the one that is targeted, but not currently on the “target list”.

Now, the argument can be made that if an organization is forced to take such action, then “change” has been forced upon them and that change can lead to an acceptable outcome.

If IS forces are forced to go to ground, forced to fold into a like organization, does that render them less effective?

Yes.

Does that mean the battle is won?

Absolutely not.

Here is one of the greatest dangers with this course of action.

It’s very probable the sympathetic attitude towards this group can come flowing to the surface if in the act of “retreat” they are attacked. 

It’s the accepted action of barbaric, uncivilized movements, but it’s an act that is quickly  questioned in a “civilized” nation.

Simply put, if the bad guys hide inside a group not seen as a threat and then they are attacked, the world opinion can turn virtually overnight.

If you doubt me, ask the Israelis about the tactic of Hamas hiding amongst it civilian population.

Who understands this modern day, civilized media driven phenomenon?

Yep…. The Leadership of IS; that’s who.

Winter is coming to Northern Iraq and Syria.

A winter where unmotivated, poorly lead Iraqi forces and war ravaged Syrian units will take every opportunity they can to avoid combat…. By the way…combat in the freezing cold is much...much more difficult than in the heat of Summer.

As for the Kurd forces…. winter is an excellent time to train….plan and demand more advanced weapons from an over energetic Western leadership so called “ coalitions”.

Remember…. The Country of Kurdistan must be the endstate of this conflict and new Western weapons will ensure that vision……at the anger  of the Ottoman Empire.

If IS mutates…… will the West pursue?

I know my answer.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/563897-key-al-qaeda-branches-urge-united-jihadist-front-against-coalition

DID THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES JUST SAVE THE GCC/ WESTERN RELATIONSHIP?

First off, it’s important to realize if someone really wants to understand what is taking place in the Middle East, they have to look outside of Western media sources.

Again, today, I’ve found yet another superbly written article on the topic of how the fight with I.S. will be executed. Simply put; Dr. Karasik knocked the ball out of the park!

Before I address the importance of today’s question, I want to take a moment to focus on an important part of not only this crisis, but crisis in general and how Western leadership fails to carry a message.

When you read this article, ask yourself, why couldn’t the US or other Western leaders articulate the major details of how this “Strategy” should unfold?

Look at the detail of what Dr. Karasik states here.

Why can these details not be the core talking points for any Western Government’s announcements on the “strategy”?

Spelling out how our Allies will support, why their ability to execute these key task in the plan are far more likely to succeed than if the West tried them, is important.

So, why did it take an article from Al Arabiya by Dr. karasik to give this new “strategy” clarity?

Unfortunately, I think I know the answers….yes…answers…not …. Answer.

Fist off, most of our Western Leaders don’t take the time to “understand” what their staffs are developing.

Gone are the days of true Statesmen, at least in the US.

Everyone is too worried about how the political rivals may leverage every single event that takes place.

None of them stop to realize, if they would just take the time to listen to the level of detail that is worked out in the multinational working groups, they would be able to sound a little more intelligent on the topic when standing at the podium.

Here is the second answer and it’s more pathetic than the first.

Western leaders, unfortunately, understand all too well the level of interest or understanding their voting members worry about.

Simply put, a poorly worded, thought out answer is sufficient and knowing that leads to leadership who sees no need to take the time to “learn”.

Ok, off my Soapbox and back to the question at hand.

Did the Islamic Forces success just save the GCC / Western relationship?

What level of forgiveness is the are the GCC partners looking for?

How convinced do they need to become the West / US / is coming back to their side of the “change movement” in the region?

Is this reformed alliance one of “convenience” and thus short lived?

As the US drives towards greater energy independence, do the GCC partners see a limted, rekindled love affair here?

I’m not going to answer the key question of the day, but I will end with one of my favorite, timeless sayings from the region; “ The enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”!

My twist to this saying has always been, “for now”!!!!

Well done Dr. Karasik….well done!!!

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/14/Analyzing-the-emergence-of-the-GCC-4-against-ISIS.html