THE 72HR CEASE-FIRE… HAMAS’ FATE IS IN SISI’S HANDS!

Is this round of what seems to be endless limited conflicts between Hamas, it’s supporters and Israel ending?

Is there a “deal” in the making?

What is Israel willing to do?

Continue the fight?

Allow Egypt to be the hero by offering a limited crossing into Gaza?

Is Sisi willing to risk allowing a depleted Hamas, a friend of his mortal enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood, a gateway back into the Sani?

What is Hamas truly looking for this time?

Are they willing to walk back into the rubble that is now Gaza and once again take all the building materials for the next round of fighting in two years?

Will the people of Gaza be beat back into submission by the Hamas Thugs who control the streets?

So.

Just what kind of “deal” is being shaped here?

Next question.

Was this 72hr cease fire a ruse?

Was it created to provide the IDF a window of “resupply” and re-missioning for the next phase of the operation?

There has been and always will be tell tail signs of large military units “retooling”.

What condition are the IDF frontline units really in?

Next question.

What is the significance of Musa Abu Marzouk’s statement of, “there is no agreement to extend the 72 hr cease fire”.

Is Hamas and its allies truly ready to bring death raining down on the people of Gaza again?

Final question.

Just how committed is Sisi  to the Israeli plan?

As the 72 hr clock start to wind down, it is clear the fate of Hamas rest in the hands of Sisi.

Someone remind me again; what is Sisi’s opinion of Hamas, arm of the Muslim Brotherhood?

Dear Hamas….

Take a hint and take what you can get….quick!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/Hamas-threatens-to-resume-attacks-370292

THE BATTLE FOR DONETSK…. AND THE OTHER SHOE!

As the attention span of the West shifts away from Gaza, does it not focus in on the battle for Donetsk?

It’s obvious many Western leaders are concerned about the outcome of this conflict, but the question becomes, are their citizens?

If everyone woke up in the morning and learned that Donetsk was right in the middle of a battle that could determine the fate of the Rebels in the Ukraine, would they care?

Here is the problem and it’s not a new one.

The average Joe on the streets of New York or London may not care, but the average Ivan on the streets of Moscow would!

Even worse than that fact is the reality that the average Ivan’s Leader, Putin, is more than concerned.

Is this truly the last leg of the Ukrainian, pro Russian, resistance?

Are the Russian going to allow them to fall?

Are the supporters of the Rebels going to be forced to walk into Russia?

Does the Tsar allow two things to happen?

1. The Pro Russian forces fall to the new Ukrainian government.
2. The economic punishment Russia has had placed upon it is rewarded with the destruction of the “resistance”?

Once again the stories of Russian forces moving towards the border with Ukraine.

Once again the new articles depicting the latest group of Russian Military Exercises” hit the airwaves.

So, that’s it?

The Tsar plan goes up in smoke?

The border of Russia breadbasket is now in European hands?

The core of the Russian military industrial complex no longer belongs to the Tsar?

I’ve never been an optimist and I try not to be a pessimist.

A realist!

That is what I strive to be and it’s for that reason I sit here tonight waiting for the other shoe to drop….the Tsar’s shoe! 

ISRAEL AND THE MODERN-DAY SLEEPWALKERS!

A question often asked, but a question that needs answering now more than ever.

In the 60’s, the West was ready and willing to go to War, even nuclear war over the survival of Israel and the world knew it.

It’s 2014 and the world has changed in ways many of us struggle to understand even parts of that statement.

So, how bad has it become the US and Israel?

How far is a progressive, liberal President willing to push this crisis?

Behind closed doors, what do these two men think of each other?

Well, we got a sneak peak at the US President’s opinion only a few years ago and that slip may have set this whole process into motion.

Before I go too far down the road of how bad this relationship has become, let me take a few minutes to explain what the results could lead to.

Imagine an Israel that truly wakes up to the realization their relationship with the US may be forever damaged?

An Israel with a Europe that looks down its collective nose toward them and a US government that gives them the same perception the US has given the Gulf States?

What is a truly desperate Israel capable of?

A writer by the name of Christopher Clark wrote a book called, “ The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went into War in 1914”.

Can history repeat itself?

Can the West, guided by a rudderless US Foreign Policy, become the 21^st Century version of the “Sleepwalkers”?

The repercussions of that series of events and poor leadership gave the world  World War One.

A war that was 100 yrs ago this month.

Let Israel truly believe they are alone in the sea of violence called the Middle East and we will see history come back to haunt the world, only this time, it will be in color and live!

Yes… The Sleepwalkers are back and the risk is growing.

Less I remind everyone… Israel may not always have the ability to insure its survival, but it does have the ability to insure none of its enemies live to see victory.

THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES AND THE KURDS… A FALLOW UP!!!

A few weeks ago, I addressed the criticality of Islamic State force fighting the Kurds.

(Link provided).

 http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-islamic-statesbattle-with-kurdswho.html

My point was simple, if the IS forces could take on a fighting force as respected as the Kurds, what chance did the Iraqi military have?

Well, the conflict over the town of Sinjar may have proven my point.

Now, I know some will say, “ the Kurds will regroup and move back in”, and that could take place, but I would also state the damage is done.

Imagine the Iraqi forces and their commander watching this battle take place all the while knowing how skilled the Kurds are in the art of fighting.

When the dust settles, the Kurds retreat and the black flag of the IS flies over the town of Sinjar!

Disconcerting?

To say the least; just ask the Iraqi military leaders.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan admission is even more demoralizing to the Iraqi leaders.

With the world’s eyes focused on Gaza, the gains of the IS in Iraq is going virtually unnoticed, with the exception of Baghdad and Tehran.

The flow of forces and supplies from Syria to Iraq and Iraq to Syria is only growing stronger as Iraqi leadership desperately tries to map out a course of action that shows any signs of working.

So, is anyone seeing this Kurdish defeat, even if it is temporary, as a good sign?

Yep!

You probably guessed it.

Turkey!

The Turkish viewpoint is not difficult to figure out.

A Kurdistan movement that is under attack by Islamic Forces is a movement on the defense and a Kurdish movement on the defense is a smaller threat to Turkey.

Yep; when you get right down to it, not much has changed.

What truly is on the minds of the Middle Eastern leaders today?

The survival of Hamas?

The growing Islamic State movement?

I bet we all know the real answer and so does Hamas.

LEBANON’S GROWING FEAR OF THE BOOGIEMAN!

The fear of the destabilization of Lebanon has been discussed since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, but I would have to state that “fear” is once again growing!

It was just a few days ago that I read of a Hezbollah fighters being killed in Iraq; not Syria, but Iraq!

When the Islamic State forces first made their countermove, yes countermove, into Iraq, I asked the question, would Iran commit Hezbollah forces to Iraq?

Just how thin can the Persians spread the Hezbollah puppet fighters?

I’ve gone over the issue of Hezbollah leaders and supporters worrying about the commitment of their forces in Syria and thus leaving the homeland vulnerable.

So, I have to wonder, just how concerning is this new story?

“Militants” forming up in Arsal and Hezbollah forces now being killed in Iraq.

What is the discussion around the Hezbollah supporter dinner tables today?

Now, let me go back to my comment about “countermoves”.

I’ve said this before and I will say it again; Islamic State Forces move into Iraq was a countermove.

If they wanted the pressure off of them in Syria, then move on the target that is soft and move on the target that will worry the Persians the most.

Iraq!

If Hezbollah forces are in Iraq, even has trainers, then they are once the perception in Lebanon is that of being spread too thin.

Now, the next brilliant move by Islamic State forces; be seen in Lebanon in mass and be seen next to the force the Lebanese people has little confidence in defending them, LDF.

Without firing a shot, the Islamic State forces have significantly turned up the heat on Hezbollah and Iran.

As I sit and ponder this development, I can’t help but think about the stories flowing around all of last week.

The stories of the horrific video clips of IS forces killing Iraq regular troops!

Like many groups now, the IS forces have taken Social Media Warfare to a new level.

So, you are sitting in an armored troop carrier / 113/ in Arsal.

It’s 2am and your supervisors are where they always are at 2am… asleep!!!

Your friend shows you a you tube clip of IS forces killing captured solders in Iraq.

You know these same fanatics are just outside you line of sight, waiting for the right moment to do the same to you.

Do you slip away in the middle of the night?

Do you wait until the fighting starts and run away?

Do you risk being captured knowing there are no prisoners with the IS?

Or, do you joint them?

So, how is it the IS forces have grown to the numbers where they can fight in Syria and Iraq and soon Lebanon all at the same time?

I’ll tell you why.

Two reasons:

1.  They are more terrifying than any other event in the region.

2.  They are growing in popularity faster than any leader in the region wants to admit.

You see, when you are in a poorly equipped, poorly trained and poorly lead military, your commitment level is far lower than your survival level.

Yes, its official; the Boogieman / men / have arrived in Lebanon!

If anyone wants to track something telling, then track the desertion rates those young troops looking into the dark….looking at the Boogieman!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/558367-large-deployment-of-masked-islamists-in-arsal

DID HAMAS JUST “BLINK”?????

A 72 hr “truce”?

Will it hold?

Are there stipulations?

Both great questions, but I want to address what I believe to be a far more critical issue.

What made Hamas agree and do so somewhat out of the blue?

Did Hamas blink?

If so, why?

Let’s once again play one of my favorite games….. “WHAT IF”…

What if:

Hamas came to the realization Hezbollah and the Persians were not coming to their aid?

What if:

Hamas realized Sisi has them sealed off from escaping into the Saini?

What if:

They truly began to believe the IDF was not going to stop until the leaders were drugged out of their bunkers.. .bunkers that would show how well they were surviving while the children are blown to pieces on the streets of Gaza?

 What if:

Hamas realized their ability to resupply was completely cut off and they would soon be weakened to the point of falling prey to Fatah or other group’s eager to replace them as the money makers of Gaza?

What if:

The West said, “this is your last chance… we are walking away and the IDF will destroy what is left of you… 10,000 dead in Gaza is acceptable to those who have accepted 200,000 dead in Syria”?

And finally.

What if Hamas is truly tired of hiding behind their own children?

What if that action has caused so much division in their ranks that their forces are about to walk away…. Walk right into the arms of the Islamic State?

Something took place today.

Something Hamas was willing to accept.

Will it hold?

What are the stipulations?

Do either of these questions really matter?

HEZBOLLAH AND THE NEW BOOGIEMAN IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

So, we head back to the topic of Hezbollah support for Hamas and what it would lead to.

I stated it last week and I’m not coming off my stance.

Hezbollah needs Hamas to win, but not at the cost of Hezbollah’s destruction!

I won’t go back over the issue of the Islamic State and what a Hamas loss would mean to Hezbollah, but I will add the next level of “theory” to this complex topic.

Is Hamas calling Hezbollah’s bluff?

Nasrallah’s stump speech last week did little to convince the West anything would come of it.

But, that was last week!

What has changed?

What could actually make Hezbollah take such a dangerous and honestly disastrous track?

Is Hezbollah so worried over the downfall of Hamas and the rise of the Islamic State in its place that they would risk everything to prevent such an event from taking place?

Are the Persians truly contemplating sending in one of its vital proxy fighters; one that is already fully engaged in Syria?

Just how much does the survival of Hamas mean to them?

Answer; not that much!

So what else could be taking place here?

What are “we” missing?

Hint!

Who was this press release given to?

“The Russian news agency”!!!!

Get the picture yet?

Solve the puzzle?

The Tsar?

Is this the answer from the Tsar on the “slap” the West gave him this week?

Is the Tsar capable of saying, “ ok…place sanctions on me will you….. Watch this”.

What level of madness would the region fall into if Hezbollah entered the Hamas conflict?

Where would the price of oil go to?

What does the Tsar truly make his money off of?

How many times have I made the comment the Tsar uses the Middle East as a weapon over the West?

Is he capable of calling Tehran and ordering his Persian partners to instruct Hezbollah to inter the conflict?

I would submit this is more than a possibility.

Now, would Hezbollah actually walk into this Hellhole?

Just how much influence does the Tsar have left in the region?

Who scares Hezbollah fear more?

The Tsar… the Persians or the Islamic State?

My bet is the Tsar is finding out or about to find out, he is no longer the scariest person in the region.

Wow… I wonder how mad that will make him?

Heads up Putin… there is a new Boogeyman in the Middle East!