IRAN…HEZBOLLAH AND THE PERSIAN BLUFF!

Last week, I commented on the “rumor” of Hezbollah coming to the aid of Hamas.

Then, two days ago, Hezbollah leadership makes statements on “supporting” Hamas.

Now, this story of Iran reaching out to Hamas through and with Hezbollah’s help.

So, what is going on?

Last week, my theory was based upon Hezbollah praying Hamas would not fall victim to the Islamic State movement after the IDF is finished with them.

Well, if anything, this story reinforces my stance and let me explain why.

What is more important to the Iranians, the survival of Assad, a leader who will never be able to lead again or Hamas as primary tool for actions against the IDF in a pending IDF, Iranian conflict?

Would the Persians want to see Hamas survive or even appear triumphant?

Yes.

If the priority of effort had to be delegated between actions in Syria and actions needed to keep the anti I.S. force, Hamas, afloat, what would the Persians chose?

Here is the reality that is hitting home in Tehran.

They can’t save Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Hamas all at the same time.

Who gets the support and who gets the IS?

If support for Assad declines, will the IS forces in Iraq move back into Syria and thus relive pressure on Iraq?

Who is closer to the border of Iran?

There is your answer.

Who sees this answer?

Yep…….the eye doctor.

Now, can Iran afford to have the IDF destroy the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon?

No.

So, what is the real message here?

Here is my shot at the answer.

Imagine how the briefing would go inside the White House.

“Mr President, we have reason to believe Hezbollah may be about to inter the conflict between Hamas and Israel”!!!!!

What pressure would that create?

What level of panic?

An administration that gets hammered every single day over have a disastrous foreign policy having to wake up to an even wider, more dangerous conflict.

Is this a bluff?

Most likely.

Will it work?

Well, the future of the national of Israel will not be decided by the White House.

It’s a dangerous bluff, if that is truly what it turns out to be.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/nasralla-relation-renewed-hamas.html

RUSSIA’S NEXT STEP IN UKRAINE.

What is the significance of “official press statements”?

Do governments hold such events for the simple task of trying to not look like they are incompetent?

There was a time when “official statements” were the prelude to action.

Governments used press conferences to build their case for action.

In the old days, the “Official briefing” was a prelude to bigger, more important events.

Are those days gone in the West?

So a thirty something “kid” steps up to the podium, stumbles over the word, “Artillery”   and then tells a story of continued arms supply from one side to another.

All the time, the real shakers and makers in the world, code for those in Moscow, watch….well maybe…. and laugh!

What was the purpose of this “evidence” announcement today?

What is going to change?

Nothing…..that’s what!

Is someone really….really …really gona show the Tsar this time?

“ We really…really …..really mean it….we are not happy”!!!!

Good grief!

Why does this still photo in the attached story look like something right off of Saturday Night Live?

Is the Tsar forcing the issue over the Ukraine?

Has he changed his mind on gone back on the offensive?

No.

He’s not changed one ounce of effort from day one.

The West has continued to hope this issue will just go away and we all know hope is not a plan.

How much effort needs to be exhausted on the topic of the Ukraine?

What is going to change?

The Ukraine is in the Tsar’s backyard and the Tsar’s message is clear.

“ I will do whatever I want…when I want”!

Where is the EU?

In the fuel bucket owned by the Tsar, that’s where.

So, let’s stop worrying about, “ what’s next ….what are we going to do”?

Nobody in the West has the backbone to stand up to the Tsar and he knows it.

Russian Artillery firing into the Ukraine?

Someone tell this young lady at the state department to move on….nothing to see here…. Next topic!

Only one person is going to unravel the Tsar and that is the person he sees when he looks into a mirror.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/557328-us-evidence-moscow-firing-from-russia-on-ukraine-troops

SYRIA… HAS IT BECOME THE “FORGOTTEN WAR”?

For over three years now, I've traveled back to the topic of Aleppo and what it means to the Rebels as well as Assad.

Once again, the story of Aleppo has crept into the news; well……almost!

When was the last time any of us heard an update on the events in Syria; in Western media that is?

Assad bombs his own children every day of the week and where is the outcry?

Rockets fly into innocent homes and nobody riots in Paris!

Does the UN even talk about Syria anymore?

What’s the count in Gaza and Israel…… 700 or so?

What’s the count in Syria…… creeping up on 200,000, but who is counting?

Aleppo; the stronghold of the “resistance”?

Is it really?

What is the “resistance”?

Who is the “Resistance”?

Does anyone remember?

Does anyone care?

If Aleppo goes back into the hands of Assad and his Persian Masters, is it over?

Does Assad and the Iranians win?

What is the definition of winning?

Aleppo is a rotting pile of death of concrete dust; that is what Assad will win back.

And what of the “resistance”?

Do the tea drinking “moderates” head back to the Ottomans and plot for the next twenty years?

Is the fall of Aleppo the end of the Islamic State forces?

Will Assad apply what is left of his forces to Iraq and once again do the bidding of the Persians?

If Aleppo falls, does Hezbollah finally go back home to Lebanon?

Once again the “Battle for Aleppo” is about to begin…..again!!!!!

What will it achieve?

What is left of a city that no one has the money to rebuild?

 Soon, the dead will fill their shallow graves and in the end, nothing will change in what was once known as Syria!

And in the end, the truth will be this!

No one seems to care anymore.

Oh and by the way; if I was a betting man, I would place a month’s pay on Hezbollah’s homeland and families paying the price for the assault on Aleppo.

“Hit the enemy where they are not”!

CEASE-FIRE TALKS AND THE EGO OF ERDOGAN.

Ok, I have to admit, reading a statement from Egodan that Sisi is a “Tyrant”!

What????

Did I read that right?

Did egodan call Sisi a “Tyrant”?

Perhaps he was looking in the mirror and got confused who he was addressing.

In the battle of Egos, does Egodan, yes… I still call him that, truly see Sisi as a tyrant?

Um….What’s that old expression; “the Pot calling the Kettle black”.

Egodan, the world leader who has his staff beat the family of miners killed in an accident who dared to approach egodan for answers.

Does the Ottoman Ruler think for a minute that Egypt is going to drop to its knees and allow someone else to be seen as a leader in the region?

Let me think for a minute…. Who has been a civilized nation longer???? Oh ya….Egypt!

Perhaps the issue is this.

Perhaps Egodan is infuriated that Sisi is not allowing him to look like a world leader just a month out from his Presidential run.

You know, his presidential run where he is telling the people of Turkey he should  empowered to make all decisions as the new Sultan of the Ottoman Empire.

As for the fate of Hamas, well, Egodan knows his ability to shape that future is limited at best and that is what aggravates him the most….letting his servants.. .. I mean his citizens see him as second fiddle in the region.

Sisi has Hamas right where he wants it and Egodans ugly words are not going to change a thing.

Sisi may be many things to many people, but he is one thing at his core…. He is a combat Veteran General Officer and that is something Egodan cannot take credit for or emulate.

The fate of Hamas does not rest with Turkey and that is not going to change.

I would end this segment right there, but there is a problem.

Egodan is just that, an Egomaniac!

Revenge…

That is what he will look for.

How dare that Egyptian ignore the Ottoman Sultan!

Quick…someone bring him a commoner to beat!

NASRALLAH  AND HEZBOLLAH..... LIKE A MOTH INTO THE FLAME

So, Hassan Nasrallah states Hezbollah is ready to “cooperate” against Israel?

Really?

And other than young men  who live off the emotions of fiery speeches, who does Nasrallah think buys this line?

Could it be true?

Could Hezbollah actually open a second front on the IDF?

Would they do this for the sake of the Sunni Radicals who may soon jump ship and side with the IS……the same IS that is fighting Hezbollah?

Is Hezbollah so worried of an IS takeover of Hamas’s youth that they would enter into this conflict knowing the IDF would destroy most of what they have left to defend Lebanon with  from the  assaults of the IS?

Is the theory, “help Hamas find off the IS takeover, even at the risk of a wider war”?

Does Hezbollah need a conflict right now with the IDF?

Why would such a thought even cross the mind of Nasrallah as he struggles to defend Lebanon from the IS?

Does any of this make sense?

Yep..

It does to me and for just the reasons I stated above!

That is, with one catch; Hezbollah will support Hamas with “words” and not guns.

Why would Nasrallah travel the path of destruction that has been apparently chosen by Hamas and Meshaal only to have the IS take hold in Lebanon after the IDF’s  crushing response?

Yesterday, I spoke of the desperation Hamas finds itself in.

Win a glorious fight with the IDF and keep the youth behind you or fall not to the IDF, but to the juggernaut called “ Islamic State”.

For years now, both Hezbollah and Hamas have witnessed the Sunni Radical elements fill the void of a collapsed nation……in Africa… In Yemen…..In Syria and now in Iraq.

Who cannot realize the same holds true for Lebanon and Gaza?

I once watched a moth that was so confused, so excited and so desperate to do something…anything as it flew around and around a bonfire’s flame that all of a sudden, it just flew right into the center of the fire!  It was gone before it knew what hit it.

Is Hezbollah flying around the flame of fear… the flame called Islamic State? 

ISIS IN GAZA… ONCE AGAIN…. “ I TOLD YOU SO” COMES TO MIND!

At the very beginning of the current confrontation between Hamas and Israel, I made the comment on just how dangerous this cycle of violence could become and why this time around it was going to be “different”.

Look at my post from Wednesday, July 9^th 2014.  “Fear is a weapon of Mass Destruction”.

So, cutting right to the chase; was I correct?

Does IS, formally known as ISIS, have its hands in the conflict inside of Gaza?

If so, why?

Well, it’s just for the reason I stated back on July 9^th; to take the advantage.

If you don’t believe it, then ask yourself why Hamas is so adamantly denying the IS statements?

Here is the larger question and the larger threat; what does the IDF think?

If IS is truly operating at some level inside Gaza, what does it mean for Hamas?

Does Hamas have to fight to the last man in order to keep the support of the very youth that must stand in front of the IDF?

 Does a “soft” compromise position lead to support for Hamas falling away?

Where would it go?

These are easy questions to ask and even easier to answer.

Hamas is in a fight to its death and they know it.

No escape route into the Sanai Desert.

No Syrian support.

Little support for a Hezbollah that is under doing everything in its power to stay afloat in Lebanon as it sends it’s young to the death fields of Syria.

Does Israel understand the danger of completely destroying Hamas?

What will replace it?

Fatah?

No.

The simple truth is, no one understands the dangers of a dysfunctional Hamas more than Israel.

Yet, does Israel understand Hamas could very well be in a position where they cannot come to the table and thus the decision has been made to neutralize their movement in Gaza completely?

Is this why the occupation of Gaza seems to be the default end state for this current conflict?

What options do Israel and Hamas really have?

Oh, by the way, Abbas would love nothing more than a destroyed Hamas.

Who can interject anything into this cycle of violence that would make a definable difference?

Turkey?

That’s the rumor, but I would put much stock in Turkey bringing anything to the table the Israelis are interested in.

Besides; the only message the Ottomans could spell out for Hamas is one that starts with the word, Compromise!

The concept of compromise is music to the ears of the IS.

Qatar?

Rumors fly on Qatar working with Turkey on a “compromise”.

Qatar; the country that is currently in a  less than favorable standing with the GCC…. A GCC that fears the IS nearly as much as they fear the Persians.

What would Qatar bring to the table?

What does Qatar offer Israel or Hamas?

A peace keeping force?

Money?

When Qatar rings the phone of Sisi, does he even answer?

Can Qatar get between the Israelis and Sis?

No!

Qatar may once again appear to trying to help, but right or wrong, very few in the region seem to want Qatar’s opinion.

Hamas must fight and they must continue to fight and as they fight, innocent civilians must be killed, hour by hour, day by day.

Hamas has been backed into a corner, not by the IDF; not by the GCC  or any of it’s old supporters.

Hamas is soon to be the latest victim of the phenomenon that is sweeping the region.

Islamic State!

IS seems to be the virus that no political doctor can find a cure for!

The infection is spreading and Gaza is the next victim.

http://www.vocativ.com/world/israel-world/isis-operating-gaza/?utm_campaign=June1&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=outbrain

MALAYSIA AIRLINES SHOT DOWN…. NOW WHAT?

Is anyone surprised this happened?

What is expected when unprofessional, untrained people, who dress like military members, but in reality have no true commonality with truly professional soldiers, gain access to highly sophisticated weapons?

Answer…. Innocent people are killed!

It’s one thing to understand these types of weapons could have fallen into the hands of rebels in the Ukraine, but it’s entirely another when we consider what has to take place in order to employ such sophisticated systems?

Who showed them how to properly activate the system?

Who showed them how to launch the system?

Did they find members from the Ukrainian forces that defected who had a working understanding of these systems?

Could it have been troops from the Crimean forces?

Could it have been Russian, “advisers”?

These are valid speculations, but let me pose a far more important question?

Who knew?

Who knew these weapons were not only in the hands of the Rebels, but who knew these weapons were operational and “active” in the area?

These systems have signatures that can be seen electronically by many modern military units.

So, let me cut to the chase.

Did the Russians know these systems were hot?

Did they instruct the Rebels on the fact they had to be aware of commercial airlines in the area?

What actions did the Russians take to insure the Rebels didn't make a tragic mistake with these highly capable weapons?

Oh by the way……. Who else should have known these systems were “hot” in the area?

Yep…. The West.

Now, back to the Russians.

The Rebels have been far from happy in the past few weeks with Russia.

It’s obvious the Tsar has changed his tactics on dealing with the Ukraine and the Rebel movement appears to have been abandoned much like the Kurds at the end of Desert Storm….Who did that one???? We know the Answer.

If the perception is the Russians pulled their support for the Rebels, then what did they do about the weapons that might create damage that would blow back on Russia?

Did they just leave the support lines and not think through the second and third order effects of events like today?

If that confuses anyone, then add this issue to the puzzle.

Are the Rebels operating from over the border?

Are the Rebels playing a version of Cambodia with Russian help?

Are they hiding behind the Tsar’s overcoat?

If they are, then today’s event is absolutely on the Tsar’s table and he knows it.

 And now, here is the question to end the day with.

What does anyone really do about it?

Do you lash out at the Tsar?

Has that ever worked in the past?

Do you use harsh words?

Has that ever worked?

What do you do about a group of Rebels who just might have the ability to do this again and again?

I bet I know the answer.

Russian forces are taking control of high altitude weapons systems and in fact, it is probably already over.

If the West knows that, and the real threat of these high altitude strikes are over, what really needs to be done about this event?

What can the West do that doesn't make it worse?

AGM-88s.. that’s what…. If a signal pops hot, hit it and hit it hard.

That is the message that will be heard in Moscow.

How will Moscow react to such a message?

Well, that is the difficult part!.