UN OFFICIAL "SYRIA IN CIVIL WAR"...... NO KIDDING!!!!!

Two nights ago I commented on how ominous it appeared not that reports were getting out that entire units, brigade size units, were defecting!

It didn't take long for some of the UN members, who have a tactical background, to come to the realization that events such as this one would push Syria over the edge.

Having said that, it still had to be a coordinated event for the UN to support their member making such an obvious statement.

If the UN didn't support what their member said, they would have jumped on the airwaves of the media and shut the story down as soon as possible. 

So, what does it mean now that the UN has made such a bold statement?

Here is my spin.

How this plays in the GCC and Turkey is the real issue.

For Turkey to formally hear the UN declare a "Civil War" on Turkeys' border is something to worry about.

How Saudi plays this against the Iranians is the next issue.

What did surprise me was how quickly the US Department of State, Secretary of State, came out with the comment about Russian support to Syria.

If the UN's backing of their members statement was not coordinated with the Secretary of State's comment, and I don't believe it was, it will still be seen as a "coordinated event" in the eyes of Iran, Russia and Syria.

Today was a day of dangerous words and these words will be responded to by all three, Russia, Iran and Syria.

A war of escalating statements is probably coming within the next day at most.

Tomorrow , I will cover what tactically may be about to change in Syria and how that might change the level of the conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261222721181345.html

PENDING VOTE IN LEBANON COULD DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST


Lebanon continues to be a key issue in the gauging of Middle Eastern
conflict.

It is not realistic to believe Assad or Iran would threaten the West with
spreading the crisis by pulling in Lebanon and it is clear Lebanese
leadership has no intention of allowing that to take place.

We must not forget that Lebanon is vital to Iranian strategy, but  not from
a standpoint of neutralizing the Syrian crisis.

Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah remain tools of Iran for conflict with
Israel and will not be squandered on the Syrian crisis as a retaliatory
measure.

Having said this; there is some credit to the concept of "use or lose".

 The Iranians could contemplate "use or lose",  but that becomes a factor
only if it is clear Syria was to  fall into total Sunni control.

A Syria that is at its worst a land of civil war with no real leadership is
still a place where Iranian guided Lebanese Hezbollah can execute missions
on Iranian orders.

Lebanon in the 80s was a land of crisis, with operational terrorist units
free to train, execute missions and live as they liked.

Iran along with Russia may be coming to the conclusion crisis without Assad
is better than the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in control.

Russia is on the wrong side of world opinion and even someone as egotistical
as Putin understands this cannot continue.

If this holds true, then the idea of Assad falling or the West conducting a
Libyan style attack becomes far more likely.

So, the key becomes Lebanon!

Keeping the Syrian crisis out of Lebanon is vital to the overall stability
of the region.

The problem is, the Sunni leadership sees the timing may be right to move on
the Lebanese Hezbollah if Assad falls.

Keeping Lebanon out of crisis, one I think they are already in is going to
prove very difficult to accomplish.

Thus; the Iranian "use or lose" theory comes back into play.

Hezbollah actions worldwide, to include in the US, cannot be overlooked.



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-11/176414-lebanese-rival-
leaders-break-the-ice-meet-for-national-dialogue.ashx#axzz1xUcX86M3

A TROUBLING STORY THAT MIGHT BE OVERLOOKED!

Taking control of a brigade?

What does that mean?

It appears this brigade defected and if true, a defection at brigade level is a serious escalation of events for Assad.

Brigade level assets are a substantial issue.

Brigade level leadership and expertise is even a larger issue for Assad.

Just look at this issue in terms of equipment, radios as an example.

Frequencies.... operational, communication and command and control issues are huge implications of this possible event.

It's one thing when a few young solders or a single Senior Officer defects.

It's even more important when it's let say an Company size unit.

But when a unit with the capabilities of a combat brigade jumps sides, that is a huge tactical as well as strategic  event.

Now, consider the intelligence value of such a unit.

Think of the knowledge a brigade level headquarters element would have of area operations?

Knowledge is power and this is never more true than in combat.

If this really happened as this story indicates, then a major step has been taken towards the ever feared, and in my opinion already here.. Civil War.

Let's see if this story pops up again soon.

Let's see if Al Jazeera covers it.

Don't underestimate what this might mean to the crisis in Syria!!!!

Oh, and it's not good news... not in terms of increased violence.

As a reminder... A Syrian brigade is not the same structure or size wise as a typical US or NATO unit, but that is lost in the strategic value of this possible event.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=273357

NO PROGRESS????? NO KIDDING!!!!

As much as Putin would love to be the hero of the hour at the next round of talks in Moscow, it seems the Iranians didn't get the message.

With a statement like, " No Progress", coming from the IAEA's chief inspector, the stage may be set for the Moscow talks in ten days.

What will be interesting is Putins' reaction to this announcement.

I have to wonder if he has made a phone call to Tehran reemphasizing his desires for the next round of talks.

Iran needs Russia and needs them desperately.

Russia needs to show the world they can solve worldly issues such as Iran's nuclear program and Syria and a headstrong Iran will not go over well with the Tsar!

The Iranians know the US wants nothing but smooth water between now and November, but after that, all bets  are off.

Iran must juggle the nuclear issue with the crisis in Syria without letting ether issue come to conflict, unless it's a conflict Iran wants!

Somewhere in this mess is Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah teams we all know are out there right now plotting to attack and probably soon.

When it comes to the Middle East, no issue is a standalone event right now.

As much as Putin and the Iranians would love to talk about what great breakthrough the talks in Moscow are going to be, and trust me, that is what they will both say, the fact of the matter is, nothing is going to change.

The US leadership wants any and all issues to hold off until after November.

Somebody better get that message to the Lebanese Hezbollah!

We are one mass casualty, Israeli causality, event away from conflict.

Israel knows they are being pushed to respond, but it's leadership will not stand for a media event that covers a large loss of innocent lives.

The "Moscow Show" is only ten days away!!!

The headlines are already written in Tehran and Moscow...

I really hope nobody is foolish enough to believe this event will lead to anything.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18370334

OK.. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF A " CIVIL WAR"?????

Let's look at what's going on in Syria as of today and see if we can figure out why all the so called "experts" believe Syria "may be heading for a Civil War, when it appears to most of the world they are already well into one.

I found this article that basically asked the same question about Iraq back in 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4902708.stm

After thinking about this issue and reviewing what took place in Iraq and what is taking place in Syria, there is one very logical reason why Iraq was never really a "Civil War"...

The Coalition Forces!

It's hard to have a civil war when one side has a collection of highly developed military units on it's side, especially when those forces are from other nations to include a Super Power.. the most powerful Super Power.

So, does this mean without intervention in Syria, Syria is heading for a so called " Civil War"?

Again, in my opinion, they are already there and have been for months.

I'm not sure what the academic talking heads will say, but most of us who have watched a city or a town get bombarded by artillery, attack helicopters and heavy armor, well.. we have a different opinion..

Lets come to terms and lets hope the UN can come to reality....

Syria is in a Civil War and the flames are burning closer and closer to the fuel stored in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and yes... Iran....

I've said this before and I will say it again..

What is the cost of no intervention and what is the cost of intervention?

If we don't figure these two questions out very quickly, they will find their own answers and we will all have to live with the results.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/06/02/Annan-warns-Syria-heading-for-civil-war/UPI-36471338675601/

ANOTHER REAL BAD SIGN FOR ASSAD.

As I start this post tonight, there is news of yet another massacre in Homs!

The finger pointing has already started, but the court of public opinion will come down on Assad, rest assured.

Ok, back to my real discussion tonight.

The attached article speaks to an issue most of us have agreed on would be a reliable sign Assad's support was in real trouble.

It's been known from the beginning the business class, Sunni, members of the capital  has been the major factor in Assad holding on.

The idea of the people who have the most to lose, business and trade, have feared what would come after Assad more than what Assad was doing.

Looking at pictures of virtually piles of dead children and knowing you are backing the person who followers conducted this act, is more than most of the " businessmen" can stand.

Fear still rules the day, but anger and a even greater fear of Assad fall and being left behind labeled as a " supporter" is starting to take it's toll on the real Middle Class of Syria.

Damned if you do and Damned if you don't... that's where they stand and they know it.

As the article states, this closing of the stores is a major challenge to Assad's power.

Kicking down the doors and forcing the stores to open, will only help these fence sitters make up their minds.... Yep.. a real dumb move on Assad's part.

If this second massacre is true, and it looks as if it is, then these business class member of Syria may be pushed over the edge.

Russian and Iranian support is not going to make them open their doors and be seen as supporters of a government that stacks children like firewood.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272807

PUTIN AND AHMADINEJAD MEETING? WHAT'S THE REAL REASON?

Ok, most of us can buy the concept of these two meeting to talk about Iran's nuclear program, given the next round of talks are in Moscow and we all know the Tsar would love to get the limelight for solving the issue.

The problem is, this is not the most pressing issue for ether of them, at least not right now!

Assad's two biggest supporters are going to meet?

How does anyone think for  minute this meeting will not start with a discussion on Syria?

Iran's nuclear program is important to Iran, but it's not on Putins' top five list and any meeting with the Tsar is about what he wants to talk about first, not the Persians!

So, what might these two say about Assad and the crisis?

Let's look at this question from the Russian viewpoint first.

The court of world opinion is getting worse and worse for Russia over the Syrian issue and several compromises have already been floated past the Russians to see if they may change their support for Assad.

Having "key" players telling the Russians their port capabilities in Syria are not going to go away, to include this message coming from the Free Syrian Council itself, is a important event.

A few  months ago, the Russia made it known they were worried at the strategic level over the possible loss of this facility.

If the world has taken this concern off the table for the Russians, then moving to yet another "concern" would give the appearance of stonewalling.

Moving on to the issue of Russian arms sales to Syria.

When this became Russia additional "concern", it was  somewhat neutralized by most of the world quietly accepting weapons movements based on old, existing contracts signed before the rebellion and centered around weapon systems that not typical of what Syria is using against it's own people.

Short answer, "Ok Russia.. we agree you can continue to make money selling arms.. Now what"?

Then the Russian came up with, in my opinion, their best logical answer for their noncompliance with the UN.

The danger of a larger, regional war.... a sectarian war!

This was their best answer and it should have been their only answer all along!

Having said that, here is the rebuttal they should hear from the UN.

" With your help Mr Putin, we stand a chance of preventing a wider, sectarian conflict, but without your help, it is nearly impossible".

Yes... You have to stoke the Tsar's ego!

Does anyone possibly believe the ex Director of the KGB, and a good one at that, doesn't know how to manipulate other groups?

Does anyone think Putin can't find a way to " strike a deal" with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?

 He is easily on of the best "Manipulators" the world has seen in the past 50 years.

Now, here is my point!

If we, the world, find a way to get Putin on board, then Putin will have the challenge of putting Iran in it's place.

Will the fanatical Iranian leadership listen to the Tsar... an Infidel?

Probably not!

When Putin offers the Iranians a "deal", it will most likely be a " take it or leave it" event.

If the world can get Putin to change his mind and more importantly his ego, the thing I think is really in the way right now, then "deals" can be made and a full blown disaster may be avoided.

My warning on this approach!

As I stated above and like I have been saying for months now, Iran can't survive without Syria, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas.

What does Putin offer them to walk away from Assad?

More importantly, what does he offer Iran the rest of the world can live with?

If Iran doesn't "make the deal", then Putin will make a fortune of the regional war!!

Oil at 150 a barrel!!!

This is like asking a Rattle Snake to strike a deal with a Cobra!!

In the end, we will most likely get bit!!!!

http://my.news.yahoo.com/putin-meet-irans-ahmadinejad-china-123121248.html