SO. WE THINK ALL THESE COUNTRIES ARE READY FOR 'DEMOCRACY'???

How do you take a region of the world that has never seen 'Democracy' / our Western definition, and has been ruled autocratically for over a thousand years and BANG!!! Democracy!!!! Oh boy!!! It's taken us seven years to try this experiment with just one country, Iraq; I don't count Afghanistan like most rational people the experiment there is years away from a full test. Iraq has seen a coordinated, ok, somewhat coordinated, very lengthily and incredibly expensive process and in the long run it has a 50 /50 chance at best of becoming anything close to what we hoped it would. Ok; that's just ONE country... with the full resources of the US and it's allies. 

What are we dealing with in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and so on and so on....?

Let's put this question in simpler terms.  

What will it take to see a successful 'Democratic' experience in all of these countries the Press is cheering for?

A economic structure based on a balanced, notice I didn't say completely 'just' Judicial system.

A Educational system that builds a common baseline for all categories of the society.

Yes several of these countries have "educational structure, but  many key elements are simply not there.

The tribal structure is a complete hindrance to 'Democracy' and good luck getting that message understood.

I could go on and on at the risk of sounding like one of the Ivey League 'Talking Heads' on CNN or FOX. Oh ya; can that one OLD Arabic Dude PLEASE cut those damn eyebrows of his. GOOD LORD!!

Folks; here is the simple--- UGLY truth.  'Democracy' is a fragile / complex / process that has to have so many key ingredients at just the right moments in time to be successful. Hell; look at how many times we have screwed it up in the US alone!

Don't get me wrong... I believe all people deserve to be free and equal. There are over six Billion people in this imperfect world and the struggle we are watching in the Arab world will probably not end the way we hope it would. 

Our real task is to be ready to deal with whatever comes of this historic event.

The world is changing as it should.. How do we deal with that change?

That is our challenge!



A DISASTROUS DAY!!

Libya provided one very crucial learning tool to some of the other Arab Nations today.

 Libya illustrated just how quickly bad decisions can lead to a complete disaster.

We need to understand just what really took place today in Libya.

The military split along lines of loyalty.

The elite Units even showed signs of defection.

This is critical because it could easily lead to intense fighting within the Libyan Military.

Something we have not seen in the past two months of the 'Tunisian Virus" event.

The next twelve to twenty-four hours cold lead to real 'unit on unit' action and I firmly believe this is why the Mad Dog's Son made the comment / warning / about Civil War coming to Libya.

Who owns the supply lines and who owns the ammo becomes the questions to look for answers.

The conscripted units are very poorly equipped and trained compared to the elite units.

The trick becomes what 'elite' units split and joint the revolt.

If key units do so, ground units; the Libyan Air force will most likely side with the dissidents, then the concept of a Civil War, all be it a short one, could come true.

No other Nation state nearby is going to risk getting involved given the turmoil of all of Northern Africa.

Bottom line; if Mommar, or however he spells his name this month, doesn't fall in the next twenty four hours, then things could get real ugly.

Oh ya; Saudi.... If they can't keep the lid on Bahrain, then the East coast of Saudi will get interesting.

We entering the next phase of the 'Tunisian Virus' and it's hard to tell where things are heading.

Can you say China??? Yep.   





RUMBLES IN CHINA??? FASCINATING!!!

'Jasmine Revolution'?

What a strange turn of events. China actually worrying about events in the Middle East spreading to mainland China.  

I go back to m original comments about the 'Tunisian Virus' and how nobody can predict what direction it may move.

One thing is becoming more and more clear.  The age of 'social networks' has changed how world events are viewed and now even take place. 

Strange how a few years ago with the onset of the Bird Flu scare, the world began to realize how fast such a 'virus' could and would spread.  The 'Global Community' is now able to get 'sick' not just from a physical virus, but from a social one as well.

With over 1 billion people and issues that run deep between multiple cultures and values in China, the impact of the 'Tunisian Virus' on China could be interesting to watch.  

Something else is really starting to amaze me. We seem to keep saying, " it's not likely these events in the Middle East and North Africa will impact stabilized countries such as Saudi and Kuwait".

Talking heads are shooting in the dark!!!

I said this a few days ago, but I will say it again.

Watch out for those who will try and start the same fires in the US.

Wisconsin and Ohio and a few others can be twisted in many different directions.

Last point for this evening.  

Sometimes the 'enemy' doesn't really care how reckless an event may become. Sometimes they don't care what the final product might be. They simply want to see damage done to the US and her allies.

The 'Tunisian Virus' continues to morph and where it is going could be anyone guess!!





LIBYA TAKEs THE "TUNISIAN VIRUS" TO A NEW LEVEL.

Heavy weapons are in use in Libya tonight. For those of you who know weapons, you know what it means to hear those words spoken!  If you are in a building behind what you think are safe walls, you are not!! If you are two miles away and you think you are safe, you are not!. Turning these weapons on the open public is just shy of Tiananmen Square in China. If you don't know what that means, your tax dollars got ripped off in Public School. 

What is different about Libya? Why is the violence able to reach such extreme levels? Simple, it's a country ruled by a Mad Man.  For all the talk of Mubarak being a dictator and a "really mean guy", he was a Patsy compared to Omar!!!

OBL and his movement HATE Omar and to take him down and further destabilize North Africa is a major achievement.

Here is what I find interesting.  We, the US seem to be in favor of this " freedom movement".  But do we really know what it's future will bring for the West?

Is loosing Omar a good thing?

Was losing Mubarak a good thing?

At what price to we wish freedom for everyone?

In 2011, the deffinition of "Freedom" could very well be "elect those who HATE us and all that we stand for". 

Helen Reddy songs and " love fest" will not keep America safe.

Oh ya; before I leave tonight; has anyone hear of any " Days of Rage" in China?? LMAO!!!

US vs IRAN. BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR!!

Ok; It's Friday night, so I will keep this short and sweat.

The topic is probably more relevant know than it has been for several years.

For several days now, many of the "talking heads" have been commenting on how the US seems to be using the "Tunisian Virus" to its advantage when dealing with Iran.

At first glance, Having the Secretary of State and even the President comment on Iran's "hypocritical" stance towards Egypt and events in Iran may seem like a smart move.

But, as I said last night, this whole concept needs to be analyzed for potential pitfalls.

If the Virus really does take hold in Iran and Iran's leadership, oh by the way the two of them don't really get along, begins to believe they may lose control, then we will enter a very dangerous perhaps even disastrous period for the Middle East. A wounded animal concept!

Why did this become far more important today compared to yesterday or anytime before?

Iran's Navel movement that was all over the news for the past two days is the reason.

Think about it.

Look at the news that has piled up on Israel for the past two months:

                Lebanon

                Egypt

                The US treatment of Mubarak ( a trusted ally)

                Weiki leaks that may very well bring down the Palestinian Government and bring Hamas into full rule.

                And now Iran openly  pushing the Brinksmanship envelope by sailing through the Suez Canal.   

Ok; now let's look at Iran:

                Iran knows the world pressure on their weapons program is creating an economic environment they cannot   sustain.

                Syria is closer to contemplating distancing itself from Iran then every before. They know a War on Iran will   bring ruin to Syria and most likely a change in leadership. They see the "talking going on between Syria                 and Saudi Arabia. " Those Arabs are up to something and we Persians know it". Oh ya; have I mentioned how the US has and  is completely missing the opportunity to play Arab against Persians? I will get to that    some other night.

                The "Green Party" is working hard every day to "Weaponize" the "Tunisian Virus". Just look at the events   this week in Iran?

So; let's cut to the chase. What does all of this mean?

If you can't see it, you are probably well on your way to being a politician!

Iran and Israel could very well be shoved into a conflict and we, the US, are doing the shoving. The frightening thing is, I'm not sure we know it.  





OK. IF YOU DO NOT RECOGNIZE THIS MAN, RETURN TO THE "SOAP" CHANNEL!!

KHADAFI AND THE TUNISIAN VIRUS

Two weeks ago I talked about our enemies trying desperately to figure out how to weaponize the "Tunisian Virus".

Two things are becoming apparent.

                1.  The "art" of weaponizing the "Virus" is far from being stabilized.  Khadafi is living proof!

                2.  The US is attempting to taken on the weaponization process towards Iran. The problem is, the second       and third order effects are far from understood. Placing pressure on Iran by stating they are hypocrites to              praise the acts in Egypt and crush the same acts in Iran is high risk maneuver. A panicked Iran is a         dangerous animal. Now; combine a panicked Iran with a very paranoid Israel, an Israel that day by day    believes more and more the US may not stick by their side and you have a real recipe for    disaster.

One thing remains very clear as of February 17th 2011; the future of the "Tunisian Virus" is very much up in the air.

IS THE TUNISIAN VIRUS COMING TO THE US?

I found something that really disturbed me today.

I was going  through my morning readings dealing with Mexico and came across an article about the potential reemergence of  the Zapatista National Liberation Army, or EZLN. the link below is to their website.

http://www.elkilombo.org/about-the-wars-a-fragment-of-the-first-letter-from-subcomandante-marcos-to-don-luis-villoro-beginning-the-correspondence-about-ethics-and-politics/

As I was reading the story on BorderlandBeat/  a great website for what is going on in Mexico, the hair on the back of my neck started to tingle.  Then it hit me; what if the "Tunisian Virus" was weaponized by a group like the Zapatista's?

I began to read the second part of the paper the Zap leader had just recently published and it was clear the US and the President, who they claim is not the legitimate President of Mexico;  some validity to that statement, were to blame for the hardships in Mexico to include the Drug violence. It's a  very well written document if you take the time to read it.

So let's assume, yes I know what "assume" means, a group like the Zapatistas and let's say the "American Communist Party" organize, " A day of rage" in the US. Lets say someone did that for lets say .... March 12th. HINT!!!

Let's assume one of the many possible themes for the US " day of rage" was the injustices towards Illegal Migrants; yep, I don't like the worried "alien". dumb word!!

Could this or something like this happen?

YEP!!!! EASY... 

As a matter of fact, I will be stunned if it doesn't happen.

Let's look at why and then who might push this type of event.

Why?

Let's take Mexico as an example. I have been studying and "watching" events in Mexico for over five years now. Nope! I'm not trying to write a book or be a "Talking Head" on Fox. It's part of my job and that is all we need to say:)

Let me make this real simple and I promise to start talking about the status of Mexico real soon. Trust me, it's a topic that needs immediate attention.   Mexico is closer now to social collapse now than in the past eighty years or so. No; I am not talking about " Failed Nation State Status". Lord knows the current leadership in this country doesn't want to hear those words, just ask the Secretary of State! Having said that, Mexico is so weakened by the current conflict over drugs, it has become susceptible to " outside" influences. I will go into more detail when I write about what is going on in Central and South America and why.   

So, along come our enemies looking for ways to distract and weaken the US.  They have watched the "Tunisian Virus" for over two months now and continue to figure out ways to use it to their ends.  

What they realize is "Social Networks" can provide the coordination needed to rally people in the streets.

The only other thing they need to use the Virus on the US is a worthy cause that holds emotional water in the US.

Yep; the "plight of the Illegal's and those who support them. You put the two together and you just may be able to light a large "fire" in the US.

Enter the Zaps.  Remember; The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend".

I could go into a great deal more detail on the concept, but I wanted to get the theory out there first.

" It can never happen here"!  Right!!!

The Titanic is unsinkable.  Japan would never attack the US. It will be years before Pakistan or India have a nuclear weapon; need I go on?

Paranoid? Maybe.

I have watched our enemies for a long time and I know how they think. 

I am worried and we need to at least be "thinking" about the issue.

I am going to watch the "chatter" about March 12th. You should too.