UAVs AND HEZBOLLAH...... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've stayed away from this story for several days now in the hope of seeing what transpires as a result of this event.

Several issues to talk about here, so let me take a hack at this.

For starters lets all realize this was yet another Iranian generated event.

So, why did it take place?

My opinion of Iran needing as many distractions as it can possibly generate given its economic crisis and the pending fall of Assad in Syria; yet all the time knowing they must avoid open warfare at a time when Israel will strike them first and the hardest is the overall reason events like this take place.

Lebanon knows all too well Iran is going to make it the target of Israel actions if at all possible, yet the current Lebanese government is powerless, for now, to prevent Hezbollah from pushing them around.

From Hezbollah's foxhole, they get the chance to make the age old statement of, "why can Israel do something and we can't"?

Now, the UN is very aware of Israel's commitment to protecting itself and remember part of that process is insuring everyone in the region understands Israel's willingness to do so!... Salesmanship is key to Israeli survival...

It's my opinion this all falls into the category of the continuous Chess Game being played out in the region; a Chess game with more than two players all playing at one time and not always waiting for their "turn".

What's going to happen?

Good question!

My bet is as long as these UAV's continue to show up approaching Israeli airspace, they will continue to be shot down.

The fist shot missed and the IAF has made the technical adjustment to insure that doesn't happen again.

I also would predict the Israelis will not wait for the next UAV to enter Israeli airspace or it might be taken out as soon as it does.

Not sure how many of these Iran wants to waste on Hezbollah and I'm not convinced Nasrallah will continue to see the value in being the fall guy for the events.

It could be he and Hezbollah will not be the "fall guy" for the next one.

The blame line might go directly to Iran and I'm not sure what the consequences of that might be.

I do know this, Israel continues to understand Iran's desire for Israel to take action against Lebanon or Gaza on a massive scale, but I'm beginning to think Iran's warped leadership doesn't comprehend no Arab nation, Hezbollah and Hamas.. who would fight anyway, are not Arab nations, is going to side with Iran.

To put it simply, pushing Israel into attacking Arabs like Lebanon is a hard sell to the Arabs, especially by a Persian country.

Can it happen?

Yes..

Will Lebanon be the only one to suffer?

NO!

Iran will "suffer" and will probably suffer first.

That Israeli plan is far more complicated than Iran realizes.

Can Israel and Arab countries, "come to terms" to avoid conflict in an Iranian war?

I bet the Generals in Iran know the answer:)

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=288440