THE ASSASSINATION OF AL-HASSAN..  WHO...  WHY NOW?

Ok, so much for "conventional wisdom" when it comes to the theory nobody wants to see Lebanon catch on fire.

So, did Assad call for the murder of al-Hassan?

Only if he got the green light from Tehran.

Did Tehran want Hezbollah to take the brunt of the Sunni wrath in Lebanon because of this attack?

NO!

So, would Tehran have sanctioned this attack?

Did someone or some country just execute a key individual in the Special Tribunal of Lebanon case for the UN?

Yep.

Ok, then who would want that to happen?

Hezbollah?

Would Hezbollah conduct this operation without the approval of Tehran?

If so, why?

So far, the "conventional wisdom" on what happened doesn't fit the logic of current events in the region.

Having said that, let me say something that is "unconventional".

If you go back and read some of my post from early this year and even late last year, you will find several occasions where I talked to the issue of Iran and or Russia come to terms with how to out Assad, yet keep control of Syria.

If anyone thinks that ether the Russians or Iran would not turn Assad into a dead man if they knew they would not lose influence in Syria.. then you are wasting your time reading about the region.

If anyone has and still realizes this issue, it's Assad!

If he can't trust the guy who cleans his floors day to day, then how in the world does he trust Tehran or Moscow?

Paranoia has been his middle name for well over a year now and it just gets worse day by day.

So, let's assume for a minute Assad decides that regardless of what Tehran or Moscow wants he gives the orders to turn up the heat on Lebanon; thus further terrifying the whole region.

Again; does this mean he places his own survival ahead of his support from Hezbollah?

It's just hard to accept!

Ok, let's take the other track.

Lets assume Hezbollah and Tehran are involved and dreamt up the whole plot.

Why?

Back to one of my other theories.

Iran is so desperate not to lose Syria and Hezbollah they would rather see Lebanon in flames than to see the Sunni movement succeed in Syria.

Perhaps the threat of social unrest based upon the sanctions has the Iranian leadership so desperate and paranoid they are willing to create the "distraction event" many have feared?

Again, I have a hard time with this logic line.

Tehran has to know killing someone as prominent as al-Hassan in such a dramatic act, one that just smells of 2005, is an act with uncontrollable consequences.

Hezbollah fighting for its life in Lebanon is a Hezbollah that is in no position to conduct operations against Israel in a proxy war set by Iran.

Notice how quickly Hezbollah "condemned" the attack?

Ok.

Back to the primary issue.

Who killed al-Hassen and why?

It's clear there is an argument from both camps.

What's not clear is the repercussions of this murder.

Just because someone or some government anticipated the act as beneficial, that by no means guarantees positive results.

A region living on the edge day by day, is simply not predictable.

Containment of the event is job one for all in the Middle East and the UN.

The call for the current government of Lebanon to step down will probably get louder.

If that government does fall, one supported by Hezbollah, then Lebanon could turn into a Syrian replica... .something that is probably already happening.

Again, this is an event where the region teeters for the next several days.

Will the situation calm down to some acceptable level or will Lebanon cook off?

Can someone find a way to blame Israel? I bet they already have.

I don't have the answer just yet, but If Iran was not at the center of this attack, Tehran is in full scale panic mode.

A lost Hezbollah is a lost Iran government.

How many more fires can the peace seeking people of the region and the rest of the world put out?

Don't look now, but I smell smoke in Kuwait and Bahrain.. again!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/2012102113542122371.html