IRAN'S POWER STRUGGLE.. IS ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION?

Well, I'm not sure anyone's paying attention but it's very apparent the power struggle inside Iran's leadership continues to grow!

Who the next president will be after this June's elections is anyone's guess, but Ahmadinejad is doing his level best to make sure it is not one of his known adversaries.

As I've said before, the internal power struggles of the Iranian government is far more disruptive than most in the Western world realize.

I'm not sure anyone in the West even has a working understanding of what a "moderate" Iranian leader may stand for, but everyone seems to be hoping against hope one will  come to the forefront.

What is clear is the economic crisis is the weapon of choice for all sides involved.

Religion, Zionist and the crisis in Syria or a pending "Arab spring" are not the flavors of the day.

The price of bread loss of subsidies and the devaluation of currency are the cornerstones of this struggle for power.

The religious leaders of Iran seem content to allow the somewhat sectarian politicians squabble and better yet take the blame for the economic miseries of Iran; for you see, the real power in Iran will never leave the mullahs and the ayatollahs are whatever title they care to give themselves!

Although this struggle does not appear to gain much traction in the Western press, you can be assured in Jerusalem is a daily conversation.

The ability to exploit weaknesses of your enemy is a doctrinal concept that will not be overlooked by the Israelis or the nationstates of the GCC!

The actions of Ahmadinejad may appear to be amateurish, but if there's one thing he knows how to do, it's to play the part of the sensational leader.

The elections grow near and the drama will only increase.

The question becomes, with the issue of Syria and Israel overtakes the economic crisis in Iran before the elections are held?

A looming economic future is at best bleak spells disaster for the Iranian leadership and they know it.

To what ends with the Iranian government go to take its publics eye off of their economic misery?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132481311128156.html

LEBANON'S VERSION OF NERO AND ROME!!!

For those that follow the events of Lebanon, something that is not being done in the Western press, this ongoing debate about the new election laws is most likely on of the key issues to keeping the lid on Lebanon.

Harri's side, March 14th and a few others are pressing hard for an outcome that will only lead to Hezbollah desperation.

If you are not up to speed on the whole Lebanese election issue, let me make this simple for you.

The Sunn's / Harir and his group are hard against any change to the old law.

The "New Law" proposes a system of proportionality; something that would greatly strengthen the Hezbollah side of the government.

So, you see, something as mundane as "election law" is easily overlooked by a world fixated on well published violence.

The problem is, this " mundane" issue in Lebanon is just the kind of spark that sets the fuel of civil war aflame!

If this sounds pointless , then you are probably the kind of person that will be "shocked" when the next country in the region to fall into a crisis is Lebanon.

The election law struggle is nothing more than a microcosm of what is really going on in Lebanon; a civil war that never really came to any true conclusion.

Follow this story and you will be able to predict the future of Lebanon, Hezbollah and most likely the next Israeli / Hezbollah conflict.

The key indicators are there; one simply has to know what to look for!!

Jumblatt is the modern Nero of Lebanon!!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Feb-03/204835-jumblatt-says-hariris-electoral-proposal-unsuitabl.ashx#axzz2JsSG1jtE

SNAPSHOT ON THREE CRITICAL "HOTSPOTS".

Okay, I've not done one of these in quite a while but I thought tonight was an appropriate time to do a "snapshot" of events that are critical for this point in time for the Middle East.

EGYPT:

So what is this time might make this round of protests different?

The short answer is educated youth of Egypt, this time around, has a "bully" on their side!

The "bloc" \soccer hooligans\have provided a level of violence that the unorganized and mostly passive Egyptian college youth did not possess 2011.

Yes, the people of Egypt have "protest fatigue" but more importantly they are even more fatigue with the thought of yet another authoritarian government ruling over it virtually ruined economy!

Many stories have been written in the past few days on how this time, Egypt to truly could be on the edge of chaos.

Fatigue, hopelessness and violence make are simply making a disastrous cocktail.

IRAQ:

Today's Sunni protest made it abundantly clear to the Iraqi government just how close they truly are to social chaos.

The fact that the current leader of Iraq is a complete incompetent fool leaves Iraq little hope of maintaining order.

For nearly 10 years theory has been that someday Iraq eventually divide along sectarian lines in an undeclared Kurdish state.

It now appears that this theory is quickly becoming reality that is organizing your for Iran and anyone else in the region.

The Turkish oil deals with the Kurds will not take Iran's interest into account.

Simply put, as I stated at the end of 2012, Iraq is soon to be another proxy battlefield in a growing Sunni Shia sectarian conflict!

LEBANON:

There is only one way to analyze the situation for Lebanon; when will the conflict spread to Lebanon?

Hezbollah has absolutely no chance of controlling the fate of Lebanon and in fact, its own fate is now in question.

Desperate organizations like desperate nations have historically taken drastic actions.

Nothing and I mean absolutely nothing is going Hezbollah's way.

Lebanon is being held together by the reality the slim majority of its people still do not wish to see open conflict in their country.

With each passing day the ability to hold back the tide of violence is being torn down by the relentless pressures of sharing a border with the crisis called Syria.

Okay, it's fairly simple to see just how many fires close to igniting in the region.

The nations are now coming to the realization that preventing these fires is all but hopeless.

Hopefully the concentration of effort is becoming focused on the issue of limiting the damage of these fires like all other fires in nature, preventing them from growing into one large forest fire.

If you are in search of good news, then there's no need to look anywhere near the Middle East.

FOLLOW UP ON RAID INTO SYRIA.

Well, the war of words finally came out today, and it's important to take a look at what those "words" may tell us.

First and foremost, the Iranian response has a little bit of mystery to it, as they often do!!!

The old dry words about Western Zionist actions carried little weight, but the comment about the city of Tel Aviv surly caught the ear of Israel's leadership.

I did find some humor in the Russian comment.

As upset as the Russian could pretend they were, I am sure they are willing to sell replacement units to the Syrian / Iranian governments.

Never miss the opportunity to make a few bucks off a crisis... they might even given them a discount!

As for the Syrian government, they made the most out of the incident.

One of the issues that surly was contemplated prior to the decision to hit the target was the predictable response from Syria / Assad.

One of the consequences of this event was going to be the accusation that the "Rebels" in Syria were being supported by the Israelis and the West!

Of all the statements that could be made, this would be the one that would have the most political / Information Operations / Propaganda value.

Simply put, the attack gave Assad the opportunity to say, " I told you so"!!!

Now, given what the Israeli Air force would be facing in the next conflict with Hezbollah, and there will be one, letting Assad say, " I told you so" is a price easily worth paying.

As for the Syrian comment about a " surprise retaliation", well.....  that will depend on how desperate Assad becomes and if the Iranians allow such an event to take place.

On the issue of comments made about the event, did anyone notice the almost total silence from the GCC countries?

Yep... Go figure!!!

So, did this event cost Israel a few points in the court of world opinion?

Probably, but then again, Israel has been losing that public opinion campaign for years now, so nothing new there.

By the end of the day, I was somewhat disappointed, why I don't know given the shallow level of Western media coverage, over the lack of the "professionals" asking, "what next"?

Will Assad continue to try to leverage the event to shift the story of Zionist, Rebel collaboration?

Maybe, but most who know the region understand this tactic has little to no traction with Assad's real enemies.

Does anyone thing for a minute the Sunni Fundamentalist groups are actually working in concert with the IDF???

Yep,  that story is just not going to get Assad very far, and in reality it has probably already played itself out.

Will Assad try to deflect the conflict by retaliating on Israel?

As I stated last night,  I seriously doubt it.

Iran simply is not prepared to go there just now.

If we see signs of Iran preparing itself for conflict, and trust me we would, then I would become worried.

Iran can't bless off on Assad taking action on Israel in the hopes of it maintaining the actions of a proxy war without fallout for Iran.

Short answer... Iran can't allow Assad to start something Iran doesn't want.

So, how about Hezbollah?

A very different option for both Assad and Iran, with the exception Assad gets no vote on tasking Hezbollah... that authority remains with Tehran.

Could Hezbollah conduct operations that would force the IDF to respond?

Absolutely, but again, the danger would become, who does the IDF respond to?

As I've said before, If Israel is forced to deal with Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, thereby painting a picture of the IDF taking actions inside of Lebanon, then Israel will most likely take all the actions they have been preparing for at one time... namely ... Iran!!

A few rockets from Lebanon into Israel may not be out of the question, given Israel will be very reluctant to attack a second Arab country in such short order.

Again, doing the deliberate planning process at the strategic level of anticipating retaliatory events is something Israel is very good at.

The " plan" to deal with a limited Hezbollah action, out of Lebanon, is ready for execution.... you can bank on it.

This event may lead to other actions and I am worried many have not thought that concept through, but I can assure you the Israelis have!

That doesn't equate into everything going according to "plan", but mistakes are most likely going to be made on the side of Assad, not on the side of Israel.

Oh ya.,... How about all those Anti Air units Syria is said to have?

How did that work for them?

They were  surprised by two jets...... I don't think they wish to see what could be sent towards them..... but then again Assad may just wish for such at thing and when you get right down to it....... that is what really worries me!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-31/204406-hezbollah-slams-israeli-attack-on-syria.ashx#axzz2JbHdURcI

ISRAELI STRIKES..... NOW WHAT  DOES IT MEAN?

By now, just about anyone who follows the Middle East has read or heard of the IAF strike in Syria.

Let's get right down to it and see what it means.

 Here are a few simple, quick questions that need to be answered.

Why did Israel strike?

Why did they hit what they did?

It's reported they struck SAM 17 systems still in cargo mode.

If this really was the target, why now?

The "rumor" was they were being moved to Lebanon for Hezbollah.

Now, Israel's most recent warning was based on WMD status and the issue of them being given or falling into the wrong hands, but in the past, Israel has also warned of "other" systems being handed over to Hezbollah or other groups.

Ok, so if SAM 17 units were the target and they were being moved, again the question becomes, "why".. not why did Israel hit them, but why did Assad decide to give the impression he was about to give them to  someone else.... Hezbollah?

We have to accept the fact Assad knows full well Israel would never allow this transaction to take place.

After we accept that fact, then we need to look at why did he decide to execute the plan?

Was he forcing Israel's hand?

Does he believe such an act would change the current environment in Syria?

Would he do such a thing without consulting the Iranians or the Russians?

You see, it's one thing to understand the Israelis took action today, it's another, one that is more important, to figure out why Syria took this step!!!!!

If Assad was cleared to take such a provocative move, that would mean Iran has a "plan" for what this event may lead to?

Does that mean Iran is prepared for war with Israel?

I don't think so.

Does it mean Iran is once again trying to turn the issue away from their nuclear program?

Perhaps!!!

Let me take us to the next question?

Now what?

What does Iran do?

What does Israel anticipate, and I can guarantee you they have though this through, Iran will do?

I've not heard an official response from Iran yet, at least not one that the blogs or open press has picked up on.

That is an interesting indication to me..

It could very well be, Iran didn't really believe the IAF would strike this movement.

Was Iran truly caught off guard?

If so, will they react?

My bet is they will react with words only!!!

Yes, I know they were beating their chest this week declaring an attack on Syria would be seen as an attack on Iran and it could be they even anticipated this event.

But, it appears Israel has now officially said,  " so what"!!!

Ok, back to what the IAF hit and why?

Let's get passed the fact it was a weapon system the Israelis would not allow Hezbollah to have.

Why would Hezbollah want to have a SAM 17 unit?

Are they capable of implementing such a sophisticated system?

I will tell you it is one thing to send a group of people to a "school", but it is a whole different issue to think that a group of "students" right out of a abbreviated course can engage a very complicated, advanced enemy such as the IAF.

Taking your picture or making a You Tube clip showing off your new toys in Lebanon is not what is going to stop the IAF!!!

No one knows this better than Israel.

So, why did they chose now, on Syrian land, to eliminate this threat?

Was it a message?

Was the real event here a warning, more than just words, more than just to Assad, that Israel will enter Syria if needed?

My bet is this is exactly what took place today!!

Ok,

What next?

Simple....

The next move is up to Iran, not Assad...

If Assad decides to " retaliate", and I bet he does not, then he will not do so without Iranian support and that is exactly how Israel will see it.

The bottom line is... Israel has just stated, "we are willing and able to enter this conflict"!!

Now.... How about Iran????

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=301585

UPDATE ON MR. MORSI!!!

I think I said a few times in the past two years, but here we go again; it's easier to complain and promise than it is to lead!!!!

The question running through everyone's conversation today was, " is this protest different then the last four or five"?

Good question.

Here is my stab at an answer.

Short answer; yes!!!

Why?

It's the first one where they have had so many deaths during the protest.

Does this revitalized opposition have the momentum to keep up the protest pace?

It's true the last few have basically fizzled out over the course of a few days, but the important issue was the planners never really went away!

Another critical factor is the percentage of youthful protesters.

These members seem more organized and more deliberate than in the past?

Are some of them the typical Soccer Hooligans?

Most likely, but that is one of the reasons they are having such an impact this time around.

As a matter of fact,  I would not be surprised if the whole " black bloc" group is not made up of or centered around the Soccer Boys!

Ok, here is the short version of this issue.

Yes, Mr. Morsi is in real trouble and the MB knows it!!!!!!

The last time this level of protest was on the radar screen, it was over the Constitutional referendum issue.

During that event it was somewhat questionable where the Egyptian Military may come down on the side of?

That issue is even more pressing this time.

Remember, the Egyptian Military is no real fan of the MB or Mr Morsi, but they have been careful not to turn Egypt into a larger crisis then it already is.

The warning given today by the Egyptian Military was not for the protestors.

It was for Mr Morsi and the MB and the governments watching events in Egypt.

Ok, back to the most important question?

Is the current Egyptian government in real danger of falling?

I'm afraid, the possibility is growing by the day.

If the Egyptian Police cannot contain the violence or the death toll of the protesters goes up, then the Egyptian Military may very well have to step in to save the country, what's left of it.

I heard someone comment today this was all part of the "growing pains of the Arab Spring"??? What an Idiot!!!

As if something positive was going to come out of yet another round of violence and destruction in Egypt.

That is why we keep the "Academic Dreamers" on College Campuses.

They simply cannot function in the real world!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=102523

AGAIN AND AGAIN... THE QUESTION CONTINUES.. WHAT IS IRAN WILLING TO DO?

Time and time again, I have talked about and asked the question; what is Iran willing to do to keep Syria in the Iranian camp?

So, what has changed?

What has made the Israelis once again talk about "intervention" in Syria?

Is the threat of Hezbollah or other radical groups obtaining WMDs changed, become worse?

Hard to tell given the smoke screen that can be placed over such events and the political reluctance to take action only to find out one was wrong!!

Here is one aspect of this topic that has changed and continues to change for the worse.

Iraq!!!

Iran now faces the loss of influence, control in Iraq as it struggles with the events in Syria.

Again, the question becomes.... what will Iran do?

As we struggle to come to grips with Iranian paranoia, we must not forget the threat of actions by Iran's enemies.... namely Israel!

Israel has mad it abundantly clear  they will not accept or allow WMDs in the hands of Sunni or Shi'ite groups!

It's even more important to realize Israel doesn't base it's actions on the "words / speeches / given in the region.

If Israel took that stance with Iran, it would have gone to war years ago!

Two concerns keep Israel planning for preemptive operations.

One is the deliberate movement of such weapons to Hezbollah who would most likely attempt to store them in Lebanon, thus creating a third dimension to this crisis.

The second issue is the loss of such weapons to radical Sunni Rebel units currently fighting in Syria.

Now, one of these events is more coordinated than the other and that would lead us to believe the ability to detect such a deliberate event would be easier... we would hope!

The other, non deliberate event, by the way, I'm not totally convinced Assad would not let the loss of WMDs take place perhaps as one last great act of defiance and " I told you so", creates such a large amount of speculation and "fog of war" the Israelis might actually fear it more.

In both scenarios, the end state for Israel is unacceptable and we all know it.

So, the issue becomes, does Israel wait for ether of them to actually take place or do they find a point in time where they take action to keep ether from happening?

The story linked here hints to that course of action, and by the way, the Israelis have a history of living up to their "hints"!!!!

Ok, back to Iran.

Does Iran contemplate Israel may be closer to taking preemptive actions on Syria's WMD arsenal?

Remember this weeks warring, " An attack on Syria would be considered an attack on Iran"? 

Let me make this thought process even harder to deal with.

How many times have I said Iran might  easily be willing to allow the pending conflict with Israel start with an event that is not based upon the Iranian nuclear weapons program?

How many times in the past two years have I mentioned my theory of Iran forcing the issue outside of Iran?

An Israeli attack on Hezbollah storage sites in Lebanon or in Syria would be just the ticket for Iran if and that is a huge if, they are ready for a conflict with Israel.

Now, the DEBKA story states Iran is contemplating an event that ends in yet another stalemate like 2006 /2008 and 2012.

My bet... Don't count on that theory from Israel... not with Iran involved.

Yes.. interesting and dangerous times continue in the region... oh ya.... have you heard out of North Korea in the past three or four days????

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=301317

http://www.debka.com/article/22716/Iran-actively-weighs-Syrian-Israeli-clash-Iron-Dome-posted-in-N-Israel