THE CONFUSION AND CONCERN!!! SYRIA'S WMDs!!!

Many conflicting stories have been generated in the past few days over the status of weapons of mass destruction and who is truly in charge of defending them, moving them in the long run using them.

Netanyahu chose his words carefully when he spoke of preparing Israel for major changes in Syria.

Some organizations seem to be, "assured", that the weapons in question still remain secure.

Yet, others are not near as confident as for that reason Netanyahu gave his warning not just to the region but to the rest of the world.

No one, and I mean no one, is confident, truly confident, as to the location and the status of all the weapons in question inside of Syria.

What is known is that the Islamic fundamentalist fighters are consistently the ones who are making the most headway against the government of Syria.

Verbal assurances by Russian officials are simply not enough for the world to be at ease.

Israel understands all too well the price of being wrong.

If Israel is, "wrong", or if Israel believes the verbal assurances of the likes of Russia and those assurances turn out to be nothing more than wishful thinking,  then results could be catastrophic.

It is no coincidence that the conversations of the security of the WMD weapons and the pending departure of Assad have gone hand-in-hand for well over a week now.

One event absolutely leads to the concerns of the other.

Rumors of, "other forces", being in Syria to ensure the safety of these weapons based upon, "wishful thinking"!

What I find disturbing on both accounts, the rumors of Assad's departure and the security of the WDs in Syria, is the lack of input or emphasis on the intent or actions of the Iranians!

Is there the possibility that the Iranians and the Russians are allowing the Russians to take lead on this conversation?

Yes.

It is very possible the Iranians understand they cannot be the "lead" on the topic of Syrian weapons of mass destruction.

"Assurances" from Tehran would hold virtually no accreditation with the rest of the world, whereas Russian "assurances" would keep many in the world at ease, at least for now.

In the past three weeks the rapid advances by the rebels have simply made it more difficult for the rest of the world to have detailed analysis and planning for the events unfolding in Syria.

As I've said before, events inside Syria are moving faster than planners and governments!

Here's what I know.

Those Islamic fundamentalist fighters who are obviously carrying the battle to Syrian government will also have a vote on any negotiated post Assad government whether the rest of the world likes it or not.

Having said that, these groups are typically not run by "fools".

The ownership and status of weapons that the rest of the world and especially Israel will not tolerate any ministries over must be crystal clear with her without Assad being in Syria.

As the Russians struggle to remain relevant in the region, it is possible that the Iranians have come to an agreement with the Russians to take "the lead", but the wishes and the visions of the Russians seldom match those of the Persians.

Few things are clear when it comes to Syria right now, but it is obvious the most critical issue is not the status of Assad.

Two weeks ago the issue was, would Assad actually utilize WMDs against his own people.

Today, the issue is where are they, who has them, and what is the plan to keep Israel from a complete state of panic?

The lives of thousands of Israelis will not be determined by a verbal commitment from the actions or the West or the UN.

There is a saying in the United States Army; "deeds above words".

Someone needs to show the Israelis deeds before words and the need to do so convincingly and quickly.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=297021

"NEITHER SIDE WILL WIN"? THE RUSSIANS WILL ENSURE THAT!

Lavrov's comment about the future outcome of events in Syria are most likely true, at least the Russians are hoping it's true.

It's possible the Russians are beginning to realize, as the Iranians are, but the best possible scenario for the near future in Syria is simple chaos.

If Assad is truly no longer listening to Russia or Iran, something that I seriously doubt, then the Russian's comment might make sense.

It is also not the first time the Russians have attempted to paint a picture of them having very little control over Assad's actions.

That in itself could be another troubling sign is one considers Assad's options for dealing with the rebels.

From almost the very beginning the Russians attitude towards events in Syria have not changed.

From time to time there has been talk of assisting in negotiations or finding, "a resolution", but the bottom line is the simple fact that the events in Syria, from the Russian's viewpoint, is not just about Syria.

Putin's desire to rebuild the Russian Empire has many facets and even more detailed subplots.

It's an age old Russian, Soviet Russia, campaign to resist, the West, not based upon a local issue, but on a global scale.

Russia's influence in Syria is not the sole issue here.

The czar's ability to slice out Russia's, "relevancy", especially in the in the area of global fuels, is what is truly at stake here from the Russian perspective.

The balance between the Ottomans, the Persians, the Arabs and the rest of the world in the Middle East is not a, "shared", vision especially from the eyes of the czar!

As the world continues to awake to the reality of the sectarian war, civil war, not just in Syria but perhaps in the whole Middle East, the Russians, as we all must do, are looking at this issue from the interest of their own country.

Having said that, I'm not convinced the Russians primary concern is the issue of sectarian warfare.

The fact that the Russians are preoccupied with their status as seen by the West probably is leaving them to drastically underestimate the severity of sectarian conflict.

Now, the Russians had spoken the past about the dangers of such a civil war in the region, but their actions do not seem to be based upon truly dealing with such an event.

Simply put, the Russians are more worried about their , "image", then they are about preventing and reality now, stopping a regional sectarian war.

The days of Russian influence over the government of Syria are gone!

The dangers of the Russians trying to influence events not only inside Syria but in the region as a whole are becoming more and more evident.

You see, once again, it's not about fixing problems and it's not about building relationships.

As in the past, it's about "power"!!!

Unlike in the past, this is a recipe for disaster and at best future tension.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=296960

SO WHY THE OUTLANDISH STATEMENTS FROM IRAN?

Iran's comments about the utilization of, "toxic gas", is puzzling to most!

Why would Iran make such an outrageous statement?

The tensions between Iran and the GCC states are well known.

My speculation is based upon Iran possibly building and information operations campaign for the potential use of chemical weapons in Syria.

By making these comments about Bahrain, Iran is probably anticipating taking the position of Syria not being the first country in the region to use such weapons against its own people.

With all the events in the region over the past week, the story simply is not risen to the occasion of the media paying attention much less the governments outside of the region.

Is a well-known fact that her rant has been meddling in the affairs of the GCC states for quite some time now.

The dangerous concept of pitting Sunni against Shia for the sake of distracting the world's attention away from the actions in Syria has proven and will continue to prove to be a dangerous game.

Why Iran chose this week to bring up such a inflammatory topic as chemical weapons, with their names being changed to "toxic gas", it's a valid question!

The country of Kuwait is not been on the "radar" near as much as Bahrain Jordan Syria Lebanon and Yemen, but the concept of Iran meddling in Kuwait is not new.

As we watch Iran desperately try and find a way out of the crisis of Syria, it becomes evident just how desperate they are becoming.

The GCC states know full well Iran's game.

The question becomes, do the GCC states "respond\deal" with the interference effectively?

It is one thing to realize the games the Iranians are playing, but it is quite another to react to them correctly.

If there's anything to take away from this inflammatory rhetoric from Iran, it's the underlying concern that Iran could be laying the groundwork for chemical weapons operations inside of Syria!

I'm not convinced the GCC states understand why Iran made this comment, but I am sure the Israelis and the US and its allies have seen through the Iranian tactic.

Does this make me believe the use of chemical weapons in Syria is closer at hand now?

Yes!

Between this propaganda campaign from Iran and the veiled threats of the so-called Syrian rebels utilizing chemical weapons, it is obvious that the Iranians are building an information campaign for the utilization of such weapons.

Every day the rebels gain ground throughout Syria and every day the Syrian military leaders come more to the realization that they are losing not only the battles but the war\Civil War.

I'm not sure if this is the last phase of the Arabian information campaign, but if it is it was a week attempt at justifying future actions inside of Syria.

I would be very interested in hearing the opinion of the Russians after they heard the Iranians make the accusations against Bahrain.

I'm afraid the primary effort on the Russians part, at the moment, is the preparation of evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria.

As a side note, the czar's comments about the future of Assad were interesting to say the least.

Let's wait a few days and see with these new words from the Russian leadership might really mean.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=296781

LEBANON! THE PRESSURE MOUNTS!!

The pressure cooker that is now commonly referred to as Lebanon continues to reach a boiling point.

Lebanon is a nation that is in no position to take on large numbers of additional Palestinian refugees.

On top of this additional pressure the accusations of Lebanese involvement in Syrian operations both pro-Assad and anti-Assad are increasing day by day.

The likelihood of Lebanon becoming engulfed in the searing conflict is increasing with every refugee that sets foot on Lebanese soil.

The destabilization of Lebanon could quickly approach crisis levels for not only the rest of the region, but for Hezbollah as well!

It will become increasingly difficult for Hezbollah to concentrate on situations inside of Syria if Lebanon continues to destabilize.

The paranoia of Israel as they witness the continued destabilization of Lebanon will become a concern for all.

The weapons that the IDF neutralized over the eight-day conflict in Gaza last month are some of the same weapons currently held by Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Israel must consider Hezbollah's actions if their hold on Lebanon is in jeopardy!

What is becoming more and more apparent is no longer the central issue for the region.

Syria is truly becoming the region's greatest nightmare: the battleground for a growing sectarian conflict!

The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, between the Persians and the Arabs, is continuing to slide into an event that none of them will be able to control.

The newly recognized government of Syria, for what it's worth, may never get a chance to stabilize a post Assad Syria.

In reality, the struggle for months has been to prevent the chaos of Syria from spreading into Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq.

It is the struggle that may soon require all the efforts of the United Nations and the rest of the world.

Getting the czar, "onboard", and convincing the Chinese that the oil will continue to flow regardless of the sectarian outcome for the region::: that is the real challenge!

Over two years ago I nicknamed the Arab Spring, "the Tunisian virus", for reason.

For you see, like a virus, the events in the region continue to mutate and change much faster than a, "cure", can be found.

And like a virus, the region may no longer be eligible for a cure, but the time may be here for a vaccine!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Dec-20/199210-lebanon-struggles-with-rising-refugee-influx.ashx#axzz2FYJm2bxH

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=100474

SO RUSSIA IS ANXIOUS? SO WHAT STAGE IS IRAN IN?

It appears the conflict inside the Palestinian refugee camps has been far more disturbing to the Russians than many anticipated.

With the Russians must now decide is how destabilizing to the remains of the Syrian government there evacuation, the Russians that is, would be?

Whether the Russians are communicating with the Iranians on the possible evacuation of Russians from inside Syria is the next important question.

I would be willing to bet that conversation is taking place even as I write this.

The advances in just the past few days of the Syrian rebels, or freedom fighters whatever you may choose to say, has been far more dramatic than the Russians or the Iranians are even the West would like to admit.

It also appears the drawing of sides of the Palestinians in Syria is nearly complete with an overwhelming majority siding with the rebels.

Towns such as Halfaya falling to the rebels with dramatic video coverage is more than disturbing to those few supporters of Assad that are left.

The perception that the window of opportunity to leave Syria may be closing has become a simple fact that Assad can no longer deny!

Now back to the topic of the Russians!

Free, reluctantly, to evacuation of Russian personnel from Syria but that does not mean he is not going to extract  a pound of flesh for doing so for doing so.

Between the issue of the patriot missiles going to Turkey and the Palestinians abandoning Assad, both the Russians and the Iranians simply see nothing going their way!

Having said all of this, the news is far from good for the rest of the world.

The Islamic fundamentalist fighters advancing on nearly all fronts inside of Syria will be in no mood or position to come to the negotiation table.

For several months now I have warned about the speed at which the Syrian government could collapse.

It appears my and the fears of all those watching could be coming true!

Assad simply does not have a higher level of panic that he could possibly reach.

Syria has now reached the point that I believe is up to the Iranians military leaders to determine what happens next.

The decision to fight, serpent, associate or simply go home are now the only options left for the Iranians.

Creating a crisis in Lebanon or Jordan are Bahrain will no longer salvage the Syrian government.

These options listed above are now only viable for the sake of revenge or escalation.

No one, and I mean no one,  believes Assad or his supporters will survive.

For nearly 2 years now the objective has been the defeat of the Syrian government.

With that objective now a hand the more important question becomes, what next?

The concept of, "what if", has been discussed for a long time, but now I believe the time is at hand.

If what is left of the Syrian military leadership decides to negotiate with the newly recognized government of Syria, then Assad and those close to him will need to flee quickly!

In conclusion:

The conflict in Syria between the Syrian government and the, "freedom fighters", is nearly over.

The chaos the world is feared is now the issue, hence the Russians decision to depart Syria and quickly.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Dec-19/199086-russia-shows-anxiety-on-syria-by-readying-evacuation-plan.ashx#axzz2FSOYNHH3

HAS IRAN ALLOWED ASAAD TO MAKE ANOTHER CRITICAL ERROR?

Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, the loyalty of the Palestinian refugee camps has been a concern to all.

The Iranians have known from the beginning that the Palestinian refugee camps would hold the fate of the Syrian government!  

The Iranians have also realized that the rebels would always attempt to fight from inside the Palestinian camps.

The split between the Palestinian's has become as evident as at any time in the past.

It could very well be that Assad or his generals have taken action against these Palestinian refugee camps without Tehran's approval.

One of the greatest fears the Lebanese government has had for months is the overwhelming influx of Palestinian  refugees in a short period of time.

The sectarian tension not only inside Syria but in Lebanon as well is only going to get worse.

The perception that the Sunni Palestinians are no longer trusted by the Syrian government will be obvious to everyone in the region.

If this increased hostility towards the Palestinian refugee camps has been sanctioned by Tehran, then the desperation of the Iranians is nearly as high as the Syrian governments!

The rainy and six-point plan for a peace settlement in Syria has been placed on the table yet again.

The fact that the Iranians would even contemplate bringing this plan back to the table indicates just how desperate they may be becoming.

With each passing day, both the Iranians and the government of Syria, the now non-recognized government, grows more out of touch with the day-to-day reality of the region.

Asaad's followers have fewer and fewer options for not only supporting Asaad but for escaping from Syria.

On top of this issue, the most blatant case of sectarian violence is now underway in the Palestinian refugee camps.

The fact that the Syrian government, Asaad's government, continues to attempt to paint the picture of the Syrian rebels potentially using chemical weapons could be, as I stated earlier, a true indication of where Asaad is heading!

Make no doubt about it, the now open attacks on the Palestinian refugee camps is one of the last signs of Asaad's desperation!

If Iran is ever going to pull their support of the side, this might be the event that leads them to that action.

If Iran did support these attacks on the camps, and the next steps taken by a side will also be supported or even directed by Iran.

I believe we shall soon have our answer!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=100387

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Dec-17/198798-iran-details-plan-to-end-syria-crisis.ashx#axzz2FL8wzVcB

HAS RUSSIA TRULY  GIVEN  UP ON ASSAD?

It's not as if the Russians are just now coming to the realization of Assad's pending downfall.

Having said that, the question becomes why make this possible prediction now?

What changed from the Russian standpoint that they would make such a defeatist prediction?

One hint was given by Mr Bogdanov and it is one that went largely unnoticed given the gravity of Russian prediction.

His prediction of the fighting, "growing worse" could be telling the world several key clues.

If the Russians believe the fighting is going to get worse, then they must know that Assad has no intention of leaving Syria or coming to any agreements.

Even more ominous, the Russian prediction of increase violence might be based on their knowledge of what he intends on doing to stay in power.

The fact the Russians would openly admit they have drawn up plans to evacuate " their people" is yet another "clue"!

The final "clue", the one that worries me the most, is the comment about the possibility of the rebels "seizing chemical weapons".

If anyone knows the exact location of stockpiles, it would be the Russians and the Iranians.

The rest of the world can speculate based on intelligence, but these two countries undoubtedly know the Syrian program far better than anyone else; with the exception of the rebels and that is even worse news.

Ok, to put it simply; I believe the Russians know Assad himself believes his odds of staying in power are diminishing by the hour.

The Russians, and the Iranians, also know Assad has determined he will go out fighting.

Months ago, I make the statement both the Russians and the Iranians would eliminate Assad and his followers themselves if only they could be assured what replaced him was somewhat sympathetic to their relationship.

If we see the Russians actually evacuating their people from Syria, then we know the most violent part of  Assad's plan is about to take place.

Oh by the way, you will not see the Iranian's leaving Syria.

There will be no Iranian Citizen evacuation; for you see... ... the only Iranians in Syria are the combatants helping and soon fighting along side Assad's forces.

One thing you can bank on.

The Russians know more about the status and the intent of Assad's government than the rest of us do.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20710561