UAVs AND HEZBOLLAH...... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've stayed away from this story for several days now in the hope of seeing what transpires as a result of this event.

Several issues to talk about here, so let me take a hack at this.

For starters lets all realize this was yet another Iranian generated event.

So, why did it take place?

My opinion of Iran needing as many distractions as it can possibly generate given its economic crisis and the pending fall of Assad in Syria; yet all the time knowing they must avoid open warfare at a time when Israel will strike them first and the hardest is the overall reason events like this take place.

Lebanon knows all too well Iran is going to make it the target of Israel actions if at all possible, yet the current Lebanese government is powerless, for now, to prevent Hezbollah from pushing them around.

From Hezbollah's foxhole, they get the chance to make the age old statement of, "why can Israel do something and we can't"?

Now, the UN is very aware of Israel's commitment to protecting itself and remember part of that process is insuring everyone in the region understands Israel's willingness to do so!... Salesmanship is key to Israeli survival...

It's my opinion this all falls into the category of the continuous Chess Game being played out in the region; a Chess game with more than two players all playing at one time and not always waiting for their "turn".

What's going to happen?

Good question!

My bet is as long as these UAV's continue to show up approaching Israeli airspace, they will continue to be shot down.

The fist shot missed and the IAF has made the technical adjustment to insure that doesn't happen again.

I also would predict the Israelis will not wait for the next UAV to enter Israeli airspace or it might be taken out as soon as it does.

Not sure how many of these Iran wants to waste on Hezbollah and I'm not convinced Nasrallah will continue to see the value in being the fall guy for the events.

It could be he and Hezbollah will not be the "fall guy" for the next one.

The blame line might go directly to Iran and I'm not sure what the consequences of that might be.

I do know this, Israel continues to understand Iran's desire for Israel to take action against Lebanon or Gaza on a massive scale, but I'm beginning to think Iran's warped leadership doesn't comprehend no Arab nation, Hezbollah and Hamas.. who would fight anyway, are not Arab nations, is going to side with Iran.

To put it simply, pushing Israel into attacking Arabs like Lebanon is a hard sell to the Arabs, especially by a Persian country.

Can it happen?

Yes..

Will Lebanon be the only one to suffer?

NO!

Iran will "suffer" and will probably suffer first.

That Israeli plan is far more complicated than Iran realizes.

Can Israel and Arab countries, "come to terms" to avoid conflict in an Iranian war?

I bet the Generals in Iran know the answer:)

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=288440

ANOTHER TWIST TO THE IRANIAN SANCTIONS PLAN?

The idea that sanctions would create social stress in Iran has been greeted with skeptical questions from some time now.

Sanctions tend to hurt those who have nothing to do with what a government is being punished for, especially in a dictatorship such as Iran.

But here comes an interesting "twist".

Could it be the sanctions were designed to do just what this article suggest is taking place?

Could it be the sanctions are designed, at least in part, to created stress between two factions inside the government that already exist?

The anti Ahmadinejad movement has been known by all for several years.

Perhaps the friction caused by economic hardship is designed to split a government that depends on being united?

Perhaps this is not about Students and Middle Class working folks, but about rival political camps that are looking to climb to the top?

A Government divided is something that becomes very difficult to sick the Secret Police Thugs on.

It's easy to beat up protesting students, but what about political party members at each other's throat?

Ok, even if this was the case, I have to ask the question.

What is the desired outcome?

If we get political party factions fighting, does that mean the Qud force will no longer back the religious leader??

Does Khamenei lose his grip on power if the political underlings continue to fight?

Khamenei knows all too well what this end fighting can lead to and he is already well aware of the fact the sanctions are creating pressure on the day to day politics of Iran.

So, perhaps there is yet another possibility of what the world is trying to accomplish with the sanctions, but I still have to wonder... what is the end state?

What is it that the "plan" is trying to accomplish?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=288227

IRAN "BACKS" TURKEY'S BORDER ISSUES????

Ok, as the saying goes in the US, "If you believe that, I have some Swampland in Nevada I can sell you".

I have to wonder what Erdogan thought of this "announcement" by Ahmadinejad?

I know one thing for sure; he believes it about as much as I do!!!!!

Now, the two of them do have a common issue and that is a Kurdish independence movement that is not going to go away.

Would the Kurd issue be enough for Ahmadinejad to strike a deal with Erdogan?

Would the collapsing status of Ahmadinejad inside his own country make him reach out to Turkey?

The answer to both of these questions is no!!

Here is what I think The Mad Carpet Rider is up to.

An age old ploy is being put into motion here.

If Iran openly announces its support for Turkey on the issue of "Territorial Integrity", it has a stronger position than normal when it defends Syria's right for the same.

So, to position the issue of Assad's " Rights", Iran pays homage to Turkey.

Now the question becomes, what does this get Iran or Assad?

My bet is, when the time comes, it gets both of them absolutely  nothing.

A nice photo op and a few kind words will not change a thing between the two countries.

Turkey has a "vision" of what needs to happen with Assad and Iran has one that is 180 degrees out.

Bottom line; nice try, but nothing changes.... nothing at all.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=97201

 THE TAKING OF AN AIRBASE.. ONE ...TWO...THREE...

Months ago, I reviewed the topic of countering the Syrian air superiority without concept of a no fly zone or even air support.

It appears the Rebels are perfecting the skill craft of attacking airbases with each passing week.

It's clear the Rebels have realized its one thing to attack and temporally neutralize an airfield, but trying to keep it is still a bridge too far.

Fuel farms, runway surfaces and weapons storage areas are soft targets for an airbase and the impact of consistently rebuilding or resupplying after short violent attacks is taxing in more ways than one.

The logistical drain on keeping a base that comes under attack, constantly, functional is an operational victory by itself.

For every unit assigned to defend critical airbases, that is one less unit moving into combat operations.

So, not only are the Rebels impacting Assad's ability to flying offensive operations over

Their heads, they are creating a drain on an ever depleting logistical process.

Yes, Airfield attacks are just another example of, " A death by a thousand cuts"!

My concern, being a guy who spent a large part of his life fighting this type of an event, is realizing the al-Qaida operatives are learned a very valuable lesson in Syria.

It's nearly impossible to defeat a superior Air Force in the Air, but it's not impossible to strike them where they live.

Yep.. It worries me!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/syria-rebels-air-defense-base_n_1960773.html

AH ..YES... SOMETIMES IT'S JUST HARD TO SHUT UP!!!

Back in the days when the Muslim Brotherhood stated they would not seek the Presidency in Egypt, remember.. it's ok to lie to the Infidel... I spoke to the issue of what I believed the MB ultimate goal truly was.. what I called their " Master Plan".

This statement by Badie simply confirms my theory.

The "End State" for the MB is the capture of Jerusalem.

The difference was the road to success had other areas that needed to fall first.

All "local Infidels" must be dealt with before the grand prize is set into motion and that includes neutralizing the Shia movement.

Now, we all know if Morsi takes any heat of this comment from one of his "Partners", he will simply say, " in the new Egypt, all people are free to speak their mind!", or something close to that.

He will then try and remind the world, remember.. the greater the lie, the more often you must tell it... he is no longer a member of the MB... Ya... Right!!!

Why this Badie was allowed to say such a potentially damaging statement at this point in time is an interesting issue by itself.

So many events are taking place in the region, it's nearly impossible to keep track of what event is linked to what other event.

Turkey's move on Russia and Assad yesterday is still a puzzling event and now such threatening words out of Egypt...... well... that does nothing but turn up the heat for everyone.

If I were " BB" I would simply tweet Badie, if he knows how to work a phone, and tell him the day Badie walks the streets of Jerusalem under his control is the day he will see nothing but glass made from the sand he stands on.

http://www.france24.com/en/20121011-egypts-brotherhood-heads-urged-jihad-jerusalem

HOW SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT IS THIS?

Well, first and foremost, you have to know Tsar is none too pleased with Turkey's actions.

To get caught cold handed doing something everyone in the world knows has been going on for months is not that surprising.

What is interesting is why the Turks chose now to question a process that has been going on for months?

What changed?

More importantly, what message was Turkey attempting to send to Russia and Assad?

The odds are the only way this will be interpreted in Moscow or Damascus is that of an escalation on Turkey's part.

The fact the Turks moved additional fighter aircraft closer to the Syrian border can not be overlooked.

Stacked on top of that event is the announcement it was no longer "safe" to fly over Syrian airspace?

Really????

Again.. Nothing new here... so again the question of; what changed?

I can tell you that the "clearing of airspace" is a worrisome sign to those that know the process of CAP, Combat Air Patrols.

So, what is taking place with these three events.. . Syrian airlines with Russian gear... movement of fighter jets to the border and the closing of Syrian airspace for Turkish airliners.. A process that will be copied by other nations very soon.

                                                                                                                          

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210102183860603.html

AN "EX" UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE??? GIVE ME A BREAK!!

David Rothkopth??? Give me a break!

I have only one comment for a guy like this... stick to selling Chinese goods in Walmart and leave the concept of how conflicts execute to those who have lived in them.

Now, I have talked time and time again about the possibility of actions over Iran or by Iran and how they might take place, but people who write articles like this poor effort in Foreign Policy Review need to catch a clue.

Take a wild guess as to who gets a vote on how long such a strike would last?

Yep.. a ten year old who has mastered Modern Warfare Four on Xbox can figure this one out....... The Iranians do!!!!!!

No one ever said you had to be intelligent to get an article published in a rag like the Foreign Policy.

Take a look at what the other attached article says and remember what I just said above.

Does anyone truly believe the US and Israel could simply bomb locations in Iran for a "few hours" and then head back to the Academic Dinner for Brainless ex administration officials in DC?

One of my favorite TV shows from the 60s was a program called, " Lost In Space".

In that show there was a robot who just about every episode yell, "WARNING... WARNING...DANGER ...DANGER"..

This is exactly what should be going on right now when a left of center, ex administration official starts telling  how easy a strike on Iran might be and how the region might be better off soon afterwords.

What worries many of us is the possible issue of why someone would start floating a story like this.. right now....

I know I have written about the ability to disrupt the Iranian program without having to completely destroy each facility, but I took the time to talk about the danger of Iranian reaction.

The law of Disproportional applies to the Iranian issue like no other time in modern history.

To Iranian leadership, the act of destroying their nuclear program is an attack on their soverinty and can only be seen as a open attempt at " Regime Change".

So, how is it that anyone, even someone as highly skilled as a Deputy Commerce Secretary, insert smirk here, could paint such a rosy outcome?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287118

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287148